PDF 原檔：報告_MS_聯電2303_20260729_original.pdf
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原始內容
M July 29, 2026 01:08 PM GMT
UMC | Asia Pacific
Better 3Q26 guidance and further investment for production of AI semis; OW
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Strengthens our thesis Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- UMC guides for 3Q26 wafer shipments to be up in high single digits Q/Q, above our 5% Q/Q estimate.
- We attribute the 3Q26 outperformance to UMC's share gains and rising AI semi exposure - the company is raising capex to capture AI demand.
- This is likely to ease concerns about 'weak mature node demand outside of AI semis' from TSMC's earnings call.
- UMC's fab utilization already exceeds 90%; 8-inch fabs reached 85%.
- We maintain our OW rating and NT$138 price target. At 18x our 2027e EPS, the stock looks attractive after the recent sell-off.
AI revenue growth outlook: In The Foundry Floorplan, we presented a constructive view on UMC given its AI-related revenue. Management indicated AI revenue of US $300mn this year (3-5% of revenue), and this may more than triple to US$1bn in three years (2029).
Non-AI semi business hasn't corrected yet: Management agrees that some customers' chip inventory (e.g., PC) is growing, but at an acceptable level. UMC is gaining share, offsetting end-market declines in smartphones and PCs. The company remains confident that it can 'reflect value' (i.e., raise prices) in 2027. Our wafer pricing assumption of a 5-10% hike in 2027 should be achievable.
Company raises capex for future AI demand: UMC announced a capacity expansion plan to capture AI demand, including a clean room for advanced packaging for AI chips, such as wafer-on-wafer and memory-on-memory stacking.
Exhibit 1 : UMC: 2Q26 Earnings Review
| (NT$ mn) | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preliminary | Q/Q | Y/Y | MS Est. | Consensus | |
| Financials | |||||
| Revenue | 68,733 | 12.6% | 17.0% | 68,096 | 67,220 |
| Opex | (7,373) | 12.7% | 21.7% | (6,722) | (6,609) |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.39 | 161.9% | 375.4% | 0.99 | 1.01 |
| Ratios | |||||
| GM (%) | 32.5% | 329bps | 375bps | 30.4% | 30.5% |
| Opex (%) | 10.7% | 1bps | 42bps | 9.9% | 9.8% |
| OPM (%) | 21.8% | 328bps | 334bps | 20.5% | 20.7% |
Modest upside
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
UMC (2303.TW, 2303 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$138.00 |
| Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) | NT$102.50 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$185.50-40.10 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 12,624 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$1,293,993 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$1,181,016 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$10,084 |
See TSMC: Aggressive capex to address stronger AI demand; OW (July 16, 2026)
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.