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原始內容
M August 4, 2026 12:19 PM GMT
Novatek | Asia Pacific
2Q Earnings Beat
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- Gross margin expanded 3.4ppt Q/Q to 42.4%, exceeding MSe by 0.2ppt and the Street by 2.8ppt on price hikes and stronger SoC mix.
- We expect 3Q revenue to rise at least 0-5% Q/Q, with auto and SoC strength offsetting smartphone weakness, alongside resilient gross margin.
- Key focus areas for Aug 6 call (3pm HKT) incl. consumer tech demand in 2H262027, pricing trends across DDIC and supply chain, and ASIC development progress.
2Q earnings above expectations: EPS was NT$10.4, +68% Q/Q and +69% Y/Y, 3%/36% higher than MSe/consensus, mainly helped by strong non-op gains. Revenue was +24% Q/Q and +10% Y/Y, 2% below MSe but 2% higher than Street. GM was up 3.4ppt Q/Q to 42.4%, 0.2/2.8ppt higher than MSe/Street, supported by price increases and a favorable product mix driven by strong SoC demand. OpM was up 5.2ppt Q/Q to 22.6%, 1.6ppt below MSe on higher R&D spending. Inventory increased 23% Q/Q on elevated costs, while inventory days rose by 4 days to 67.
Stay UW: We expect 3Q revenue to grow at least 0-5% Q/Q, with auto and SoC offsetting smartphone weakness. We also expect GM to remain resilient at current levels on mix and price. The stock is trading at 15x 2027E EPS, which we view as fair, while the company's limited exposure to AI keeps us UW.
Novatek will host its earnings call on August 6 at 3pm HKT (link). Key topics to monitor include: 1) consumer tech demand through 2H26-2027; 2) pricing trends for DDICs, foundry services, OSAT, and materials; and 3) ASIC development progress.
Exhibit 1 : Novatek 2Q26 Earnings Table
| P/L Comparison | 2Q26 Result | 2Q26 Result | 2Q26 Result | 2Q26 Result | 2Q26 Result | 2Q26 Result | 2Q26 Result | 2Q26 Result | 2Q26 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ mn) | 2Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | Q/Q | Y/Y | MSe. | diff. | Cons. | dif. |
| Net sales | 26,152 | 23,145 | 28,660 | 24% | 10% | 29,183 | -2% | 28,174 | 2% |
| Gross profit | 9,494 | 9,040 | 12,157 | 34% | 28% | 12,307 | -1% | 11,166 | 9% |
| Operating profit | 4,823 | 4,028 | 6,466 | 61% | 34% | 7,051 | -8% | 5,216 | 24% |
| Pretax profit | 4,602 | 4,389 | 7,782 | 77% | 69% | 7,413 | 5% | 5,646 | 38% |
| Net profit | 3,739 | 3,767 | 6,328 | 68% | 69% | 6,153 | 3% | 4,705 | 35% |
| EPS (NT$) | 6.14 | 6.19 | 10.40 | 68% | 69% | 10.11 | 3% | 7.66 | 36% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 36.3% | 39.1% | 42.4% | 3.4 ppt | 6.1 ppt | 42.2% | 0.2 ppt | 39.6% | 2.8 ppt |
| Operating margin | 18.4% | 17.4% | 22.6% | 5.2 ppt | 4.1 ppt | 24.2% | -1.6 ppt | 18.5% | 4.0 ppt |
| Pretax margin | 17.6% | 19.0% | 27.2% | 8.2 ppt | 9.6 ppt | 25.4% | 1.7 ppt | 20.0% | 7.1 ppt |
| Net profit margin | 14.3% | 16.3% | 22.1% | 5.8 ppt | 7.8 ppt | 21.1% | 1.0 ppt | 16.7% | 5.4 ppt |
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Modest upside
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Daniel Yen, CFA
Equity Analyst
Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2863
Charlie Chan
Equity Analyst
Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-1725
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Daisy Dai, CFA
Equity Analyst
Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com
+852 2848-7310
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Tiffany Yeh
Equity Analyst
Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com
+886 2 7712-3032
Lucas Wang
Research Associate
Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2875
Novatek (3034.TW, 3034 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Underweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$414.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | (21) |
| Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026) | NT$524.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$606.00-352.00 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 609 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$318,860 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$272,315 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$1,798 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 26.87 | 34.61 | 35.34 | 30.17 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 26.61 | 29.48 | 32.82 | 35.80 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 100,663 | 108,436 | 114,160 | 108,577 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 19,573 | 24,946 | 25,652 | 21,884 |
| P/E | 13.9 | 15.1 | 14.8 | 17.4 |
| P/BV | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| ROE (%) | 24.1 | 31.1 | 28.7 | 23.5 |
| Div yld (%) | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 4.9 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.