報告_MS_聯發科2454_20261030

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_聯發科2454_20261030_original.pdf

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原始內容

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

MediaTek(2454.TW, 2454 TT)

Top Pick

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update October 30, 2026 11:29 AM GMT

MediaTek | Asia Pacific

Positive news on AI ASIC execution and project win; reiterate OW

ource: Company data, Morgan tanley Research

We expect the stock to react positively to the AI ASIC developments; OW: ) TPU v9 on schedule, 2) confidence in Intel EMIB-T substrate yield improvement, and 3) second customer win. We maintain our PT of NT$6, 88 and Top Pick.

What's new? MediaTek confirms second customer win: In our preview note, we had expected some discussion on a potential second customer. Today, management confirmed the win, and indicated it is not a China CSP customer, hence, we think it could be a S CSP customer. We are modeling S$2.5bn revenue from the second customer in 2028, but management thinks the demand should be higher than that.

Status of major T U projects - on track: TP v8 expected to contribute S$2.5bn revenue in 4Q26 (vs. prior guidance of > S$2bn). Major AI ASIC customer's TP v9 is expected to tape out on time and starts mass production in 1Q28, dismissing recent delay concerns. While TP v9 volume highly depends on Intel EMIB-T substrate supply, management has confidence in EMIB-T yield improvement. The company is also working closely with the customer on the third generation (TP v10) and will disclose more details at the appropriate time.

Our key question to management: Will both major CS customers prioritize G U or ASIC, if/when we see cloud capex budget shrinkage? Management responded that, while not every ASIC in the industry can compete with GP , the ASICs they help to design (TP v8 and v9) enjoy very competitive TCO (total cost of ownership). Thus, we believe MediaTek's AI ASIC revenue can track our forecast, if the substrate supply is sufficient.

4Q26 revenue to grow 25-32% Q/Q, with operating margin improvement thanks to AI ASIC: Gross margin guidance of 45% is slightly better than our 44%-45%, given some price hikes for smartphone and smart-edge products. After deducting the S$2.5bn revenue contribution from the AI ASIC in the quarter, the non-AI business should be down 17% Q/Q.

We think the implied AI ASIC operating margin could be 25%-30% at scale: This assumes AI ASIC is 35% of 4Q26 revenue and the company improves its 4Q26 operating margin to 19% (up from 16.1% in 3Q26), M Update Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan tanley Research estimates M Update

3Q26 Earnings and 4Q26 Guidance Review

Exhibit 1: MediaTek: 3Q26 Earnings Review

Source: Company Data, Visible Alp a, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

Exhibit 2: MediaTek: 4Q26 Guidance Review

Source: Company Data, Visible Alp a, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

MediaTek (2454.TW)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: cost of equity 9.2%, intermediate growth rate 12.0%, terminal growth rate 3.0%.

Risks to Upside

• n Edge AI proliferates smartphone replacement cycle.
• n Smartphone demand rises in China and other EMs.
• n New products attract high demand, resulting in market share gains.
• n Google's TP spurs demand.

Risks to Downside

• n Smartphone demand deteriorates in China and other EMs.
• n Competition heats up, resulting in pricing competition.
• n New products attract low demand, causing market share loss.
• nMargin dilution is more severe.

M Update