PDF 原檔：報告_MS_聯發科2454_20260831_original.pdf
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75KB | 真資料圖 | 「Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History」圖：藍線為聯發科股價（TWD，2023-08～2026-08），紅色虛線階梯為歷次目標價調整軌跡，右上角標示最新目標價 5588（前一階為 5058），圖上方以 O/A、E/A、U/A 等代碼標註評等變動時間點。 |
原始內容
M August 31, 2026 06:14 PM GMT
MediaTek | Asia Pacific
NVIDIA and Alphabet Invest in MediaTek's CB for Extensive Partnership in ASIC ; Stay OW, Top Pick
Key Takeaways
- MediaTek announced successful pricing of a US$3.9bn Overseas Convertible Bond, attracting participation from key AI infrastructure ecosystem partners.
- Partners include NVIDIA and Alphabet and leading global institutional investors. NVIDIA also invested US$3.5bn in convertible bonds issued by MediaTek
- NVIDIA and MediaTek deepen long-standing partnership to build AI Edge to Cloud Computing Platforms.
- Both companies expand collaboration across multigenerational Cloud AI Factories, local AI computing and Automotive.
- MediaTek will adopt new NVIDIA NVLink Fusion Platform, helping customers take Custom XPUs to NVIDIA NVLink-connected, rack-scale AI factories.
Our thoughts
- In the Bloomberg interview (link), NVIDIA (covered by Joe Moore) and MediaTek CEOs together answered questions about the rationale of the partnership and the strategic investment. Essentially, through the NVLink Fusion platform, MediaTek's XPU customers can use NVIDIA's scale-up and scale-out networking technology to build an AI server system.
- Although MediaTek did not change its 2027 ASIC TAM and market share guidance given this extensive partnership and said it would take time, we do think it will increase the chance for MediaTek to win a second CSP customer (see our report MediaTek: Smartphone weak, but Cloud AI taking off). MediaTek during the interview on August 31, indicated it is indeed engaging with some customers.
- MediaTek indicated the proceeds of the CB will be use for the chip supply chain, which we believe should include some key components (e.g., HBM and ABF substrate) procurement and wafer foundry capacity prepayment.
- All in all, we see upside to our 2028 ASIC revenue assumption, given: 1) higher chance to win a second or even third CSP customers; 2) higher revenue from material preparation; 3) solidified partnership with Alphabet in TPU (see our report AI Supply Chain: Google ASIC, who gets what for design services?). Our PT of NT$5,588 implies 42% upside.
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao | +852 3963-2287 |
MediaTek (2454.TW, 2454 TT)
Top Pick
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$5,588.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 42 |
| Shr price, close (Aug 31, 2026) | Shr price, close (Aug 31, 2026) | Shr price, close (Aug 31, 2026) | Shr price, close (Aug 31, 2026) | NT$3,925.00 |
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$4,970.00- |
| 1,130.00 | ||||
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 1,565 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$6,143,350 |
| EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | NT$5,927,821 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$23,660 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 62.79 | 73.22 | 146.97 | 308.25 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 66.05 | 68.54 | 138.29 | 265.67 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 596.0 | 671.9 | 1,095.6 | 2,083.1 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 99.9 | 116.6 | 233.8 | 490.9 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| ROE (%) | 24.7 | 28.5 | 48.2 | 70.2 |
| Div yld (%) | 17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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