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原始內容
M August 18, 2026 02:29 PM GMT
Innolux | Asia Pacific
Sub-seasonal 2H26; Glass in Advanced Packaging Awaiting More Meaningful Contribution
We maintain the view that it is still premature to accumulate shares from the angle of glass opportunities in advanced packaging. Stay EW.
Core business update and outlook:
- Commodity display: TV demand should be relatively stable, but earlier restocking took place in 1H26. Meanwhile, NBs are suffering from higher component costs.
- Non-commodity display: It sees good synergies from the Pioneer acquisition and expects benefits to emerge in the future.
- Non Display: Demand is relatively stable and should continue to grow.
Emerging semiconductor business:
- Chip first offering should grow shipments by double digits YoY this year.
- Continued to work with partner on TGV; likely to see adoption in 2028.
- No comment on capex or capacity plans at this stage, but it will try to keep both under control.
- Despite the possibility of more players joining the supply chain, it is confident about its own first-mover advantage.
Fab disposal:
- No plan for aggressive fab disposal in the future; instead, will focus more on the production facility optimization.
Our view:
- We think the market's focus is still on glass opportunities in advanced packaging, although we sense that the enthusiasm seems to have normalized in the past few months, before the supply chain sees major breakthrough in technology or yield.
- At the current 1.7x 2027e P/B, we do not see attractive risk/reward in the stock.
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Innolux (3481.TW, 3481 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Equal-weight | Equal-weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | In-Line | In-Line |
| Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$60.00 | NT$60.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 21 | 21 |
| Shr price, close (Aug 18, 2026) | Shr price, close (Aug 18, 2026) | Shr price, close (Aug 18, 2026) | NT$49.50 | NT$49.50 |
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$72.60-12.10 | NT$72.60-12.10 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 7,985 | 7,985 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$395,264 | NT$395,264 |
| EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | NT$379,457 | NT$379,457 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$9,821 | NT$9,821 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 0.03 | 1.57 | 1.67 | 3.07 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | (0.09) | 0.74 | 1.09 | 1.79 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 226.7 | 264.3 | 278.8 | 316.4 |
| EBITDA (NT$ bn) | 27.1 | 39.3 | 43.0 | 55.1 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 0.2 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 24.5 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| P/E | 545.1 | 31.6 | 29.6 | 16.1 |
| P/BV | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| RNOA (%) | (0.9) | 3.0 | 4.9 | 10.3 |
| ROE (%) | 0.1 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 10.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 5.5 |
| Div yld (%) | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| FCF yld ratio (%) | (13.8) | 7.5 | 4.8 | 7.4 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (13.6) | (26.8) | (32.8) | (40.8) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.