PDF 原檔：報告_MS_群創3481_20260814_original.pdf
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原始內容
M August 14, 2026 02:43 PM GMT
Innolux | Asia Pacific
Modest Margin Expansion in 2Q26 Well Expected
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Core business will soften in 2H26 and the overly hyped glass opportunities in advanced packaging should come in 2028 at the earliest. At the current valuation of 1.7x 2027e P/B, we see risk/ reward as uncompelling. Stay EW.
2Q details:
- Off revenue of NT$63,700mn (-4% QoQ/+13% YoY), GM improved 0.1ppt QoQ, to 14.6%, largely in line with our estimate at 14.7% and consensus at 14.6%.
- With opex of NT$7,642mn (opex ratio 12.0%), operating profit came in at NT $1,633mn (OPM 2.6%), short of our NT$2,360mn estimate (OPM 3.6%) but surpassing consensus of NT$1,452mn (OPM 2.1%).
- With narrower non-op gains of NT$173mn, NP was NT$4,532mn (EPS NT $0.57) vs. our estimate at NT$5,486mn (EPS NT$0.69) and consensus at NT $16,671mn (EPS NT$2.09).
Looking into 3Q26 revenue guidance:
- Commodity displays (47% of 2Q26 revenue mix) to be down in high single digits (%) QoQ;
- Non-commodity displays (13% of 2Q26 revenue mix) to be flat QoQ; and
- Non-display (40% of 2Q26 revenue mix) to be flat QoQ.
Our view:
- We think the guidance is pointing to a below seasonal 3Q26. The commodity segment has seen earlier restocking in 1H26 and the automobile demand outlook appears lackluster.
- In its advanced packaging business, Innolux is one of the most aggressive players among panel makers. It is currently involved in one foundry player's glass core substrate project, where the proof of concept is completed and more verifications are undergoing now. That said, we maintain the view that mass production is likely from 2028 at the earliest and there might be more suppliers joining at that stage.
- At current valuation of 1.7x 2027e P/B, we view risk/reward as uncompelling.
Modest shortfall
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision lower
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Derrick Yang
Equity Analyst
Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2862
Vivi Huang
Research Associate
Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2860
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com
+852 2239-7689
Innolux (3481.TW, 3481 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Equal-weight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$60.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 20 |
| Shr price, close (Aug 14, 2026) | NT$50.10 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$72.60-12.10 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 7,985 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$400,055 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$384,248 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$9,598 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 0.03 | 1.57 | 1.67 | 3.07 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | (0.09) | 0.74 | 1.09 | 1.79 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 226.7 | 264.3 | 278.8 | 316.4 |
| EBITDA (NT$ bn) | 27.1 | 39.3 | 43.0 | 55.1 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 0.2 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 24.5 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| P/E | 545.1 | 31.9 | 30.0 | 16.3 |
| P/BV | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| RNOA (%) | (0.9) | 3.0 | 4.9 | 10.3 |
| ROE (%) | 0.1 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 10.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 5.6 |
| Div yld (%) | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| FCF yld ratio (%) | (13.8) | 7.4 | 4.8 | 7.3 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (13.6) | (26.8) | (32.8) | (40.8) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.