PDF 原檔：報告_MS_瑞昱2379_20260730_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-31）
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58KB | 真資料圖 | Consensus Price Target Distribution（MS PT NT$717 vs 市場均值 NT$525）+ Risk Reward Chart（情境測算：Bull NT$1,117/+60%、Base NT$717/+2.9%、Bear NT$517/-25.8%，以現價 NT$697 為基準） |
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原始內容
M July 30, 2026 06:02 PM GMT
Realtek Semiconductor | Asia Pacific
Better than feared outlook
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
The stock appears to be a safe harbor vs. other high-flyers (e.g., Memory) following the trough into 2Q earnings .
Key Takeaways
- 2Q GM missed, but a price increase to take effect in 3Q should help with GM recovery.
- Near-term clients need to build up inventory due to FOMP (fear of missing procurement).
- Our EW rating reflects limited cloud AI exposure, but we view downside as limited as well.
2Q review: 2Q revenue was NT$37.6bn, +3% Q/Q and +18% Y/Y, 3% above MSe. 2Q gross profit was NT$17.7bn. GM was 47.0%, -2.7ppt Q/Q and -3.2ppt Y/Y, 2.7ppt below MSe. EPS was NT$7.42, -12% Q/Q and -3% Y/Y, 12% below MSe. Margin compression was driven by elevated memory pricing and constrained OSAT capacity.
2H26 outlook : PC segment faces demand pressure in 2H26 due to elevated memory costs and CPU supply tightness, but revenue growth is expected, helped by spec-up demand. For the consumer segment, TV shipments have begun to soften after FIFA; home appliance demand continues to grow steadily and global game console shipments are expected to fall this year. The networking segment demonstrated demand stability, supported by enterprise infra refresh cycles and the transition toward higher-value WiFi7 and multi-gig Ethernet solutions. The auto segment is expected to be seasonally strong in 2H, especially helped by growth from the European market.
Other highlights : Increased product pricing with certain customers is to take effect in 3Q, helping GM recover. Realtek is gaining share in the managed switch market, having increased 2-3ppt vs the previous reporting period. WiFi7 penetration in notebooks is estimated to reach ~30% this year, while WiFi8 deployment is seen starting from 1Q28.
Remain EW : The company is indeed showing better than feared outlook due to FOMP (link). We believe the stock is fairly valued relative to our implied target of 19x 2026E P/E. Supply constraints and weak end-market demand continues, but we expect the company to manage some revenue growth in 3Q and a continued GM rebound in 2H, helped by spec-up demand and price increases.
Modest shortfall
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision lower
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Realtek Semiconductor (2379.TW, 2379 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Equal-weight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$717.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 3 |
| Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) | NT$697.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$970.00-438.00 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 513 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$357,466 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$2,091 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 28.77 | 37.49 | 37.48 | 43.56 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 29.00 | 32.47 | 36.89 | 42.33 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 122,706 | 152,532 | 149,558 | 160,626 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 18,079 | 21,468 | 22,519 | 26,821 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 14,753 | 19,230 | 19,224 | 22,339 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 17.0 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 16.0 |
| ROE (%) | 27.9 | 36.8 | 32.4 | 35.5 |
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.