報告_MS_欣興3037_3Q26_20261027

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_欣興3037_3Q26_20261027_original.pdf

原始內容

M Update October 27, 2026 03:23 PM GMT

Unimicron | Asia Pacific

3Q26 GM beat MSe/Street; stay OW

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

odest upside

Impact to our thesis

ource: Company data, Morgan tanley Research

Key Takeaways

3Q GM at 28.8% (+400bps q/q) is 120bps/150bps above M e/ treet, but slightly below buy-side expectation of ~30%.
3Q non-op gain of ~NT$2.6B is above M e/ treet, and above buy-side expectation of non-op losses, leading to NP of ~NT$10.1B or ~NT$6.41 EP .
We view the divestiture of UMJ positively, in-line with Unimicron's long-term strategy to focus on higher-end, more profitable businesses.
The stock trades at ~14x 2028 P/E, undemanding versus its 5-year average of ~21x.

Divestiture of Unimicron Japan (UMJ): Unimicron to divest 100% of UMJ to Meiko Electronics (6787.T, covered by ota Harashima). According to Meiko's filing (link), the share purchase agreement is targeted for December 2026 and the business handover for April 2027. The price has not been disclosed. UMJ is a niche specialty PCB maker with no IC substrate exposure. In F3/26, it reported revenue of JPY 8.0B, an operating loss of JPY 594M, and a loss per share of JPY 16,628.

Capex: Unimicron announced an additional NT$50.9B investment in long-lead-time equipment, raising the total to ~NT$82.6B, spanning beyond 2027.

Our view: We view the results as modestly negative, as buy-side investors are likely to place greater emphasis on GM than on non-operating performance. That said, this appears to reflect an expectations mismatch rather than any structural concern, with GM continuing to expand meaningfully, up 400bps q/q. We continue to like all ABF substrate names in our coverage, but prefer Unimicron given its more proactive expansion plans over the next ~5 years, which should help it gain share from competitors.

odest revision higher Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EP

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2989
Irene Yen Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2869
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m	+852 2239-7689

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

Unimicron(3037.TW, 3037 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target NT$1,775.00

Up/downside to price target (%)

hr price, close (Oct 27, 2026)

NT$1,060.00

52-Week Range NT$1,420.00-156.38

h out, dil, curr (mn)

1,505

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

U $48,966

EV, curr (mn)

U $51,311

Avg daily trading value (mn)

U $628

Fiscal Year Ending	12/25	12/26e	12/27e	12/28e
EP (NT$)**	4.34	23.99	43.46	74.32
EP (NT$)§	3.93	22.47	42.04	70.11
Revenue, net (NT$ mn)				131,241189,806279,618381,382
EBITDA (NT$ mn)	26,272			53,346103,138162,370
ModelWare net inc (NT	6,673	36,923		66,887114,374
$ mn)
P/E	50.7	44.2	24.4	14.3
P/BV	3.2	11.6	8.6	6.0
RNOA (%)	3.7	15.1	32.5	52.3
ROE (%)	6.7	34.5	47.6	60.1
EV/EBITDA	15.8	31.0	15.7	9.6
Div yld (%)	0.7	0.2	1.0	1.9
FCF yld ratio (%)	(0.6)	2.2	5.6	8.6
Leverage (EOP) (%)	(8.6)	(38.0)	(68.5)	(88.3)

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan tanley Research estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update

Exhibit 1: Unimicr n 3Q26 Results

Year to Dec. 31 (NT$ mn)	Actual 3Q26E	Q/Q	Y/Y	MS Est. 3Q26E	Diff. %	Consensus 3Q26E	Diff. %
P&L Summary
Net sales COGS	52,650 (37,460)	23%	55%	52,104 (37,714)	1%	49,333 (35,839)	7%
Gross profit Operating expenses	15,189 (4,662)	43%	234%	14,390 (4,279)	6%	13,494 (4,266)	13%
Operating income Non-operating income	10,528 2,636	58%	587%	10,110 661	4%	9,228 (1,495)	14%
Pre-tax income	13,163	-15%	347%	10,771	22%	7,733	70%
Net income EPS (NT$)	10,052 6.41	-23%	358%	8,174 5.21	23%	5,972 3.81	68%
Margins		ppt	ppt		ppt		ppt
Gross margin	28.8%		4.0%15.5%	27.6%	1.2%	27.4%	1.5%
Operating margin	20.0%		4.5%15.5%	19.4%	0.6%	18.7%	1.3%
Pretax margin	25.0%	-11.3%16.3%		20.7%	4.3%	15.7%	9.3%
Net margin	19.1%	-11.5%12.6%		15.7%	3.4%	12.1%	7.0%

S urce: C mpany data, Visible Alpha, M rgan Stanley Research estimates M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Unimicron (3037.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 14%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

n udden demand shortfall
n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
n Intensifying competition
n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity