PDF 原檔：報告_MS_智邦2345_20261006_original.pdf
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42KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：智邦月營收（右軸 NT$mn，黃線）對股價（藍線）自 2015 至 2026 的走勢圖（財務／股價類，公司頁不嵌） |
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57KB | 真資料圖 | 股價（藍線）與 MS 目標價沿革（紅色階梯虛線，約 295→550→700→…→3,150→3,350→3,800→3,500）2023-10 至 2026-10（股價／目標價類，公司頁不嵌） |
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原始內容
M Update October 6, 2026 11:43 AM GMT
Accton Technology Corporation | Asia Pacific
September Sales -1% MoM/ +66% YoY
In this report, we focus on Accton's monthl sales, which we believe could be a catal st for share price movement.
Details:
- September sales were NT$40,399mn (-1% MoM/+66% o ).
- 3Q26 revenue was NT$120,744mn (+26% QoQ/+66% o ), in line with MSe of NT$120,883mn (+27% QoQ/+66% o ) and consensus of NT$117.390mn (+23% QoQ/+61% o ) by 3%.
Our view:
- We believe the consignment arrangement of DRAM, PCB, etc., from August might have capped the upside on revenue growth, but it should be a favorable factor for gross margin, emerging from August/September and likely extending into 4Q26.
- Driven by the network switch business and its major customer's AI accelerator module ramp, we expect revenue to continue growing sequentially in 4Q26, with the momentum in 2027 strengthened by potential new customers and new products.
- Stay OW with a PT of NT$3,500, based on 30x 2027e P/E.
Exhibit 1: Accton's monthly sales vs. its share price since 2015
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results shown do not include transaction costs. Source Company data, TEJ, Morgan Stanley Research.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
| Derrick ang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Accton Technology Corporation(2345.TW, 2345 TT)
Top Pick
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ndustry View | ndustry View | ndustry View | ndustry View | n-Line |
| Price target | Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$3,500.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 71 |
| hr price, close (Oct 6, 2026) | hr price, close (Oct 6, 2026) | hr price, close (Oct 6, 2026) | NT$2,050.00 | NT$2,050.00 |
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$2,825.00-884.00 | NT$2,825.00-884.00 |
| h out, dil, curr (mn) | h out, dil, curr (mn) | h out, dil, curr (mn) | 559 | 559 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$1,145,761 | NT$1,145,761 |
| EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | NT$1,085,110 | NT$1,085,110 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$8,214 | NT$8,214 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EP (NT$)** | 47.13 | 83.77 | 115.77 | 145.77 |
| Prior EP (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EP (NT$)§ | 45.42 | 86.65 | 118.19 | 165.38 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 248,320413,479541,272667,428 | |||
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 33,894 | 62,436 | 85,653106,950 | |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 26,342 | 46,817 | 64,707 | 81,472 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 25.1 | 24.5 | 17.7 | 14.1 |
| P/BV | 11.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 5.6 |
| RNOA (%) | 622.3(1,479.8) | 4,110.1 | 1,435.9 | |
| ROE (%) | 72.6 | 81.2 | 69.2 | 56.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.8 | 16.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 4.5 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 6.8 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (101.7) | (96.2) | (94.8) | (94.4) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan tanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Accton Technology Corporation (2345.TW)
Base case, P/E, which we believe better captures the company's earnings growth momentum. We assign a target P/E of 30x to our 2027 EPS estimate, which we view as justified by an operating profit CAGR of 48% for 2025-28, based on our estimates. This implies a PEG of around 0.6, vs. its average of 0.7 over 2019-25, when the stock was trading at a P/E of 22x for an operating profit CAGR of 32%.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger data center capex
- n Faster network switch spec migration
- n InfiniBand losing share in AI networks
- n Stronger custom AI accelerator growth
- n Stronger ODM direct business model adoption
Risks to Do nside
- nWeaker data center capex
- n Slower network switch spec migration
- n InfiniBand taking more share in AI networks
- n Softer custom AI accelerator growth
- n Softer ODM direct business model adoption
M Update