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原始內容
M August 13, 2026 02:05 PM GMT
Quanta Computer Inc. | Asia Pacific
2Q26 OpM better than feared; AI should continue to grow strongly into CY28
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- 2Q OpM was 3.3% (+50bps q/q), 10bps above our estimate/20bps above the Street - and also better than buy-side expectation of approximately +10-20bps q/q.
- While NB demand is weakening in 2H, Quanta continues to sound bullish on AI servers, expecting capacity to ramp in CY27-28, implying strong order visibility.
- Auto demand stabilized, with 2Q revenue growing in double digits q/q and y/y. Quanta continues to win new projects.
- Stay OW - valuation looks attractive at ~11x CY27e P/E vs. its three-year historical range of 6-18x.
2Q26:
- Servers made up 80%+ of total revenue (within this, AI servers are 75-80%; ASIC is <10% of AI server mix). NB revenue is a low double-digit portion of the mix (Chromebooks were <10% of NB mix).
Other takeaways
- CY26 AI servers to grow 100%+ y/y (unchanged); AI servers to reach 80% of total server revenue (unchanged)
- CY26 general servers to grow y/y (unchanged).
- AI server consignment to start picking up in the mix in 3Q26, but will remain relatively small.
- CY26 OpM to be similar to C1H26 levels (~3.0%).
- New generation VR200 NVL72 racks will be lower-margin vs. GB300, but will drive higher profit dollars.
- 3Q NB units down close to 20% q/q.
- CY26 NB units down double-digit y/y.
- CY27 AI testing capacity to double, CY28 AI testing capacity to double again (implying AI server visibility extending into CY28).
Modest upside
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2989 |
|---|---|
| Irene Yen Research Associate Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2869 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW, 2382 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$385.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 18 |
| Shr price, close (Aug 13, 2026) | NT$325.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$438.00-252.50 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 3,862 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | US$38,958 |
| EV, curr (mn) | US$40,970 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$7,246 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 19.42 | 24.66 | 28.80 | 30.80 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 18.43 | 24.14 | 29.11 | 32.90 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 2,123.7 | 3,582.6 | 3,937.2 | 4,276.9 |
| EBITDA (NT$ bn) | 99.8 | 135.1 | 158.3 | 169.0 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 75.0 | 95.2 | 111.2 | 118.9 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| P/E | 14.0 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 10.6 |
| P/BV | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| RNOA (%) | 27.9 | 31.5 | 23.7 | 23.4 |
| ROE (%) | 32.6 | 37.2 | 35.8 | 31.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 8.2 |
| Div yld (%) | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | (2.4) | (7.1) | 5.6 | 6.4 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | 31.3 | 67.4 | 48.5 | 33.4 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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Actual
Q/Q
NTSmn
COGS
2Q26P
oummliary lable
YY
MS Forecast % Diff.
2026E
Cons.
2026E
M
Exhibit 1 : Quanta's 2Q26 results - summary table
Pretax income
Income tax
Minority interest
Net income
EPS (NTS)
Margins
Gross margin
Operating margin
Pretax margin
Net margin
30,358
630
% Diff.
5%
8%
13%
| 36,561 (7,774) 49% | 69% | 36,343 (7,996) 1% | 30,656 | 19% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (136) | (193) | ||||
| 28,651 7.42 35% | 70% | 28,155 | 2% | 23,870 6.18 | 20% |
| 7.29 | |||||
| ppt | ppt | ppt | ppt | ||
| 5.0% 0.2 | -2.0 | 4.5%' 3.2%' | 0.5 | 4.9% | 0.1 |
| 3.3% 0.5 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 3.1% | 0.2 | |
| 3.5% 0.5 | -0.8 | 3.1%' 2.4%' | 0.4 | 3.1% | 0.4 |
| 2.8% 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 2.4% | 0.3 | |
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Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates..
M
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW)
Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 9.0% (beta of 1.2, equity premium of 6.0% and risk-free rate of 1.5%), an 8.5% medium-term growth rate, and a 3% terminal growth rate.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger-than-expected NB demand
- n Stronger-than-expected Apple Watch demand
- n Stronger-than-expected server demand
- n Faster-than-expected AI server penetration
Risks to Downside
- n Weaker-than-expected NB demand
- n Softer-than-expected Apple Watch demand
- n Weak margin performance owing to rising labor costs and sales shortfalls
- n Fierce price competition in the mega data center segment
- n Slower-than-expected AI server penetration
M