PDF 原檔：報告_MS_台達電2308_20261012_original.pdf
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43.8KB | 真資料圖 | 台達電股價（藍線，左軸 NT$）與月營收（橘線，右軸 NT$mn）走勢圖，橫軸 2012–2026，兩者皆於 2025-2026 區間同步急升 |
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50.2KB | 真資料圖 | 台達電股價（淺藍／深藍線）與目標價歷史（紅虛線階梯圖）走勢圖，橫軸 2023/10–2026/10；目標價標示數值自 450 逐階上調至 2700（2026 年中），最新階為 2500 |
原始內容
M Update October 12, 2026 09:53 PM GMT
Delta Electronics Inc. | Asia Pacific
September Sales +1% MoM/ +15% YoY
In this report, we focus on Delta's monthly sales, which we belie e could be a catalyst for its share price.
Details:
- September sales were NT$65,400mn (+1% MoM/+15% YoY)
- 3Q26 sales came in at NT$197,059mn (+8% QoQ/+31% YoY), largely in line with our estimate at NT$201,379mn (+10% QoQ/+34% YoY), but slightly below the consensus at NT$208,250mn (+14% QoQ/+39% YoY)
Our view:
- We believe the modest shortfall in 3Q26 revenue vs the market expectation of ~10% QoQ, is due to some component supply shortages and the customer's pull-in schedule
- Looking ahead, we expect 4Q26 revenue to grow by double-digit % QoQ on alleviated component supply and solid demand
- Regarding the USITC Investigation No 337, we believe near-term impact should be manageable, but we will continue to monitor the developments on this matter (see our report here)
- Stay OW
Exhibit 1: Delta's monthly sales vs. its share price
Source: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results shown do not include transaction costs. Source: Company data, T J, Morgan Stanley Research.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
| Derrick Yang quity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA quity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Delta Electronics Inc.(2308.TW, 2308 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry iew | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$2,500.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 32 |
| S r price, close (Oct 12, 2026) | NT$1,900.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$2,585.00-886.00 |
| S out, dil, curr (mn) | 2,598 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | US$154,524 |
| EV, curr (mn) | US$152,862 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | US$616 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 23.14 | 39.77 | 64.77 | 100.77 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 23.91 | 40.39 | 64.11 | 99.50 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 554.9 | 775.21,131.91,659.5 | ||
| EBITDA (NT$ bn) | 111.8 | 169.2 | 267.5 | 404.0 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 60.1 | 103.3 | 168.2 | 261.7 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| P/E | 41.6 | 47.8 | 29.3 | 18.9 |
| P/BV | 7.1 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 6.5 |
| RNOA (%) | 27.3 | 42.2 | 70.3 | 101.3 |
| ROE (%) | 21.5 | 31.7 | 42.2 | 50.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.1 | 28.4 | 17.7 | 11.3 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (41.9) | (51.7) | (57.8) | (64.0) |
Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus met odology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction
| Company / Catalyst | Date | Impact to t esis | Catalyst versus expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Electronics Inc. 2308.TW | |||
| September 2026 Sales | 13 Oct 2026 | Unc anged | Modest downside surprise |
Source:Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW)
Base case: P/E multiple of 30x based on average 2027-28 EPS We believe our target multiple is justified by the 63% earnings CAGR we estimate for 2025-28, implying a PEG of 0 5, versus the stock's ~23x P/E and 23% earnings CAGR during 2022-25, which implied a PEG of 1 0
Risks to Upside
- n Faster-than-expected global economic growth
- n Falling raw material prices
- nMargin improvement
Risks to Downside
- n Global economic slowdown
- nOngoing component supply tightness
- n Rising raw material prices
- nMargin contraction as a result of higher operating expenses or faster ASP erosion
M Update