報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-17）

檔名	size	分類	親眼所見內容
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_014.png`	73KB	真資料圖	股價／目標價沿革折線圖（2023/07–2026/07），與 0716 報告 002 圖為同一素材，紅色虛線標示歷次 TP 調整節點，上緣標示 2588/2888（尚未更新為本份報告新 TP 2988）
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_006.png`	67KB	真資料圖	「N2 Family Technology Capacity Growth」柱狀圖，2025/2026F/2027F/2028F 12吋等值千片產能，紅色箭頭標示 2026→2028 年 70% CAGR
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_010.png`	60KB	真資料圖	左：Consensus Price Target Distribution（NT$480.00–NT$3,800.00，Mean NT$2,755.21，MS PT NT$2,988）；右：Risk Reward Chart，現價 NT$2,470.00（2026-07-16），Bull NT$3,600.00（+45.75%）／Base NT$2,988.00（+20.97%）／Bear NT$1,645.00（-33.40%），期間至 2027/07
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_009.png`	59KB	真資料圖	P/B（左軸）與 ROE（右軸）估值帶折線圖，2011–2026，P/B 均值 3.8x（虛線標示 +1SD/-1SD 區間）
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_001.png`	65KB	裝飾·banner	「Asia Summer School 2026」活動宣傳橫幅，與 0716 報告 001 圖為同一素材
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_008.png`	55KB	真資料圖	12M forward P/E 估值帶折線圖，2012–2026，均值 16x，+1SD 19x、-1SD 13x
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_007.png`	56KB	真資料圖	半導體供應鏈庫存天數柱狀圖，1Q13–4Q26，近期峰值 148 天（約 2022 年），近季回落至 107–121 天區間（產業層級數據，非台積電專屬）
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_004.png`	52KB	真資料圖	台積電年度 capex（US$bn，柱狀，左軸）與資本密集度（%，折線，右軸），2011–2028e；柱狀圖顯示 2025e 約 38、2026e 約 62、2027e／2028e 均約 75，資本密集度自 2025e 高點回落至 2027e／2028e 約 35%／26%
`報告_MS_台積電2330_20260717_013.png`	46KB	真資料圖	FY Dec 2026e 財測估值卡：Sales/Revenue、EBITDA、Net income、EPS 四項指標並列 Mean（金色菱形）與 Morgan Stanley Estimates（藍色菱形）——Sales NT$5,494,192mn（Mean NT$5,229,946mn）、EBITDA NT$4,157,645mn（Mean NT$3,838,766mn）、Net income NT$2,873,909mn（Mean NT$2,596,362mn）、EPS NT$111.08（Mean NT$100.37）

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原始內容

M July 16, 2026 03:58 PM GMT

TSMC | Asia Pacific

Aggressive capex to address stronger AI demand; OW

What's Changed TSMC (2330.TW)	From	To
Price Target	NT$2,888.00	NT$2,988.00

Stronger capex points to larger and more urgent AI infra demand. TSMC remains the primary, if not the only, 2nm/1.4nm foundry option for major customers over the next five years.

2026 full-year revenue guidance a strong beat: TSMC hosted its 2Q26 earnings call today. It raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to >40% Y/Y (previously >30% Y/Y). In our 6/28 preview, we expected guidance to increase to 40% Y/Y vs. Consensus 35%-40%. Management attribute upside to strong AI demand despite challenging consumer demand. CSP customers are rapidly increasing cloud capex. TSMC did not update its AI semiconductor revenue CAGR forecast but indicated it is tracking above its previous 55%-60% forecast. We believe a 70%-80% CAGR for TSMC's AI semiconductor business is reasonable.

Capex hike implies urgent AI demand: TSMC raised its 2026 capex target to US $60-64bn (vs. the previous US$52-56bn), implying some equipment cost inflation. We attribute the additional US$8bn to: (1) US$3bn of cost inflation (reflecting a 5% increase in equipment prices), and (2) US$5bn of equipment prepayments, given that TSMC is not adding new clean-room capacity this year. These equipment prepayments suggest urgent AI demand, particularly for agentic AI-related CPUs and GPUs. Management said A14 would be an even larger node than 2nm and announced an additional US$100bn of capex for its US fabs, which we believe supports higher revenue after 2028 than we previously expected.

Do we need to worry about gross margin 'miss' and foundry competition? In

response to our question on competition from Samsung Foundry and Intel Foundry, management indicated that key customers share their five-year production roadmaps with TSMC, implying TSMC will remain the primary source for customers' top products. We expect TSMC could increase leading-edge wafer pricing by another 5%-10% in 2027, given the value it provides in leading-edge foundry services. On gross margin guidance, the 3Q26 midpoint is 66% vs. MSe 67.5%, reflecting dilution from 2nm. While this falls below some unrealistic 70% Street forecasts, we reiterate our view to buy on any weakness post-Street margin forecast miss. TSMC consistently reminds investors about dilution from 2nm and overseas fabs. We do not believe the margin "miss" reflects foundry competition.

Raise PT to NT$2,988; stay OW: We raise our 2026-2028 revenue assumptions to reflect stronger AI semiconductor revenue growth. TSMC's high-quality earnings profile should continue to attract fund flows in a volatile market environment. Upcoming 2Q26 cloud capex updates from CSPs are likely key catalysts.

Idea

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com	+886 2 2730-1725
Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+	+886 2 2730-2863
Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+	+852 2848-7310
Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com	+886 2 7712-3032
Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com	+886 2 2730-2875

TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT)

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Stock Rating Industry View

Overweight Attractive

Price target

NT$2,988.00

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Jul 16, 2026)

NT$2,470.00

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

NT$64,042,111

Avg daily trading value (mn)

NT$65,119

Fiscal Year Ending	12/25	12/26e	12/27e	12/28e
EPS (NT$)**	66.25	111.08	144.93	183.55
Prior EPS (NT$)**	-	107.56	143.01	177.30
EPS (NT$)§	64.56	100.37	130.74	166.68
ModelWare net inc (NT	1,718	2,874	3,758	4,759
$ bn)
P/E	23.4	22.3	17.0	13.5
Div yld (%)	1.4	1.1	1.4	1.7

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.