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原始內容
M July 16, 2026 10:14 AM GMT
TSMC | Asia Pacific
2026 revenue and capex guidance raised again; OW
Reaction to earnings
Strengthens our thesis
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- TSMC's 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance fall in our Catalyst preview Scenarios 1 and 2, where we assume the stock moves up 1-5% in the coming trading days.
- Mgmt guided 3Q26 revenue to rise 12% Q/Q, in line with MSe 10%-15% Q/Q.
- 2Q26 gross margin reached 67.7% vs. MSe 67.4%.
- Foundry competition - mgmt reiterated there are no shortcuts. Leading-edge foundry capabilities take years to develop, and a new fab takes 2-3 years to build.
Other key takeaways:
- Key positive - 2026 full-year revenue growth guidance raised to above 40% Y/Y (vs. previously above 30% Y/Y): In our 6/28 preview note, we expected guidance to increase to 40% Y/Y, but it came in even above our Street-high forecast, driven by very strong AI demand. Consensus expected an increase to 35%-40% Y/Y.
- Key negative - GM matched our conservative forecast but missed the Street's elevated margin expectations: With 2nm dilution, 3Q26 guidance at the midpoint is 66% vs. MSe 67.5%, below an unrealistic buyside bogey of 70%. We believe investors should buy on dips following the Street's margin forecast miss.
- AI demand: CSP customers are rapidly increasing cloud capex. TSMC did not update its projected AI semiconductor revenue CAGR but indicated it is tracking above its previous forecast.
- 2026 capex raised: TSMC increased its 2026 capex target to US$60-64bn (vs. the previous high end of US$52-US$56bn), implying some equipment cost inflation. As expected, it did not provide the 3-year capex guidance of US$200bn that we had anticipated, but indicated that capex intensity should increase further.
- Intel EMIB-T used by customers: TSMC welcomed Intel's role in helping alleviate advanced packaging supply constraints and expressed support for customers' success. Notably, MediaTek is a major user of Intel's EMIB-T for a TPU project.
Modest upside
Financial results versus consensus
- Modest revision higher Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight | Overweight | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive | |||
| Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$2,888.00 | NT$2,888.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 17 | 17 |
| Shr price, close (Jul 16, 2026) | Shr price, close (Jul 16, 2026) | Shr price, close (Jul 16, 2026) | NT$2,470.00 | NT$2,470.00 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$64,042,111 | NT$64,042,111 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$65,119 | NT$65,119 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 66.25 | 107.56 | 143.01 | 177.30 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 64.56 | 100.23 | 130.32 | 165.91 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 1,718 | 2,778 | 3,708 | 4,597 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| P/E | 23.4 | 23.1 | 17.3 | 13.9 |
| Div yld (%) | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
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