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原始內容
M July 13, 2026 06:02 PM GMT
TSMC | Asia Pacific
Earnings preview and catalysts for 2Q26 analyst meeting
We suggest accumulating the stock given potential for full-year 2026 guidance to be raised.
What and when is the catalyst? TSMC will host its 2Q26 analyst meeting on July 16. In TSMC: Domination in leading-edge foundry continues; OW (29 June 2026), we noted that TSMC may lift 2026e revenue guidance to close to 40% Y/Y growth and raise capex to US$56bn, the high end of its initial US$52-56bn range. Looking ahead to 3Q26, we forecast revenue to be up in the low to mid-teens Q/Q given strong demand in both 3nm and 2nm products. The margin should improve further Q/Q, in our view, with better utilization rate, but higher costs and depreciation are potential offsets. See our preview and key questions to ask.
What are the potential outcomes for this event?
- Scenario 1: TSMC guides for 3Q26 revenue to be up 15% Q/Q in USD, fullyear revenue growth target raised to ~40% Y/Y, 3Q gross margin to be ~70%. 2026 full-year capex raised to US$60bn, and 2024-2029 five-year AI semi revenue CAGR is raised to 80%. TSMC cannot fulfill the strong AI demand until the end of the decade.
- Scenario 2 (base case): TSMC guides for 3Q26 revenue to be up 10%-15% Q/ Q in USD, full-year revenue growth target raised to high 30s (% Y/Y) or close to 40% Y/Y, 3Q gross margin to be ~67%-68% (flat Q/Q). Full-year 2026 capex updated to US$56bn, while five-year AI semi revenue CAGR raised to 70% from the current mid- to high 50s (%), mainly from memory cost increase. TSMC is trying to meet strong AI demand in 2028.
- Scenario 3: TSMC guides for 3Q26 revenue to be up 5%-10% Q/Q in USD, full-year revenue growth updated to ~35% Y/Y, 3Q gross margin to be ~66%67% (down Q/Q). 2026 full-year capex guidance unchanged at US$54-56bn, while five-year AI semi revenue CAGR is also unchanged at mid- to high 50s (%). AI demand is strong but could be affected by memory costs.
What are the potential implications of these outcomes for TSMC's share price?
Scenario 1: up 3-5%. Scenario 2: up 1-3%. Scenario 3: down 3-5%.
See Exhibit 1 .
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$2,888.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 18 |
| Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) | NT$2,440.00 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$63,264,271 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$64,514 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 66.25 | 107.56 | 143.01 | 177.30 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 64.56 | 99.97 | 129.74 | 164.77 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 1,718 | 2,778 | 3,708 | 4,597 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| P/E | 23.4 | 22.8 | 17.1 | 13.8 |
| Div yld (%) | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
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