PDF 原檔：報告_MS_台積電2330USfeedback_20260713_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-14）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_001.png |
66KB | 裝飾·logo·banner | Morgan Stanley「Asia Summer School 2026」廣告 banner（泳池背景+書本圖示），非報告內容 |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_002.png |
57KB | 真資料圖 | 半導體供應鏈庫存天數（Semi supply chain days of inventory）長條圖，1Q13–4Q26，近期落在107–119天區間、2023年高點148天 |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_003.png |
55KB | 真資料圖 | Intel/TSMC/Samsung 製程節點路線圖比較表，2011–2026e，含28nm至2nm/1.6nm世代對照 |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_006.png |
41KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC vs Intel 電晶體密度（Transistor density, MTr/mm2）趨勢線圖，2010–2028，標示各世代製程節點（28nm至A14/A16、Intel 18A/14A） |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_010.png |
68KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC「N2 Family Technology Capacity Growth」長條圖，2025–2028F 12吋約當晶圓產能，標示2026–2028 CAGR 70% |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_012.png |
141KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC「N3/N5 Technology Capacity Growth」疊加長條圖（N3/N5分色），2022–2027F，標示合計產能 CAGR 25% |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_015.png |
217KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC「3DFabric Capacity Growth」雙長條圖，CoWoS 產能 CAGR >80%、SoIC 產能 CAGR >90%，2022–2027F |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_016.png |
308KB | 文字卡 | 「Global Manufacturing Footprint – US (Arizona)」投影片，文字說明 P1量產中/P2 2H26移機、新增P3/P4/AP1三期，搭配Arizona廠區空拍照片標示廠房位置與新購土地，無數據表 |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_017.png |
44KB | 真資料圖 | 各晶圓代工廠（TSMC/UMC/SMIC/Vanguard/Powerchip/Samsung/Hua Hong）產能金額（US$bn）趨勢線圖，2015–2028e，TSMC 明顯領先且持續上升 |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_018.png |
52KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC 年度資本支出（US$bn）長條圖 + 資本密度（Capital Intensity %）線圖雙軸，2011–2028e |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_019.png |
56KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC 歷史 P/E 區間圖，2012–2026，含平均值16x與±1SD（13x/19x） |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_020.png |
61KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC 歷史 P/B（左軸）與 ROE（右軸）雙軸圖，2011–2026，P/B平均3.8x |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_021.png |
61KB | 真資料圖 | Consensus Price Target Distribution（NT$480–NT$3,800，Mean NT$2,706/MS PT NT$2,888附近）+ Risk Reward Chart（現價NT$2,440，多空情境NT$3,480/NT$2,888/NT$1,590） |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_023.png |
49KB | 真資料圖 | FY Dec 2026e 財測預覽表：Sales/Revenue、EBITDA、Net income、EPS 之 Low/Mean/Morgan Stanley Estimate/High 區間對照（Refinitiv/Morgan Stanley Research） |
260713_ms_TSMC-US-feedback_024.png |
75KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC 股價走勢圖疊加分析師評等變動（0/A起評、0/I調整）與目標價階梯歷史，2023/07–2026/07，最新目標價2888 |
原始內容
M July 13, 2026 05:59 PM GMT
TSMC | Asia Pacific
US investor feedback into the print; keep OW
We sense gross margin expectations are a bit high, but confidence remains in AI semi revenue growth. Foundry competition is likely to be the key debate on the earnings call.
After marketing in the US the week before TSMC's 7/16 print, we have gathered updated investor expectations and key questions for the earnings call.
TSMC buyside expectations for 3Q26 guidance and capex: 3Q26 buyside revenue expectations are up 10% Q/Q in USD; full-year revenue raised to mid-30% Y/Y; 3Q26 gross margin at around 69%-70% (flat to up Q/Q) on 2H26 wafer price hikes. 2026 capex guidance may rise above US$56bn, and a 3-year capex outlook (2026-28) could be provided, which could be above US$200bn. See Exhibit 1 for updated preview tables, as several brokers also updated numbers into the print.
We are more aggressive on revenue, but less on gross margin: We expect 3Q26 revenue up 10%-15% Q/Q in USD and full-year revenue rising to high-30% Y/Y (close to 40% Y/Y), as smartphone wafers continue to shift to AI CPU/GPU/ASIC/ Networking production. We expect a rise of 5-year AI semi revenue CAGR to 70% (from mid-high 50s%), mainly on higher memory costs contributing to recent cloud capex hikes. It remains to be seen whether TSMC will include AI CPU and networking chips in its AI semi revenue definition. We see 3Q gross margin around 67%-68% (flat Q/Q) given overseas fab and 2nm dilution. We expect 2026 capex guidance at US$56bn. We also expect 3-year capex (2026-28) could total US $206bn; however, management may not provide that guidance (we asked last quarter).
Our thoughts on TSMC stock: Based on our meetings with roughly 30-40 investors, most still see further room for memory to re-rate and for earnings estimates to rise, even as they weigh DRAM competition from China's CXMT. We therefore expect TSMC's re-rate to proceed gradually, despite the stock trading at just 17x 2027e EPS against a 32% 2025-28e revenue CAGR. Gross margin expectations climbing to 70% concern us somewhat, but we view this as a buying opportunity, particularly on dips. Upcoming ASML earnings (EUV allocation) and global CSP capex updates should serve as other key catalysts for TSMC.
In our preview note, we highlighted three questions for management:
- How will TSMC address competition with Samsung Foundry (strong memory profits) and Intel Foundry (US policy support)?
- Can TSMC hike wafer prices in 2027 and further improve gross margin?
- 'Memory cost impact on demand' - does TSMC see that in foundry orders?
See below for " What else do US investors care about? "
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Tiffany Yeh | +852 2848-7310 |
| Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT) | TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT) | TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT) | TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT) | TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan | Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan | Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan | Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan | Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan |
| Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Overweight |
| Industry View Attractive Price target | Industry View Attractive Price target | Industry View Attractive Price target | Industry View Attractive Price target | NT$2,888.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 18 |
| Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) | Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) | Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) | Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) | NT$2,440.00 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$63,264,271 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | |
| NT$64,230 | ||||
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 66.25 | 107.56 | 143.01 | 177.30 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 64.56 | 99.97 | 129.74 | 164.77 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 1,718 | 2,778 | 3,708 | 4,597 |
| $ bn) P/E | 23.4 | 22.8 | 17.1 | 13.8 |
| Div yld (%) | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.