報告_MS_南電8046_20260730

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_南電8046_20260730_original.pdf

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004、005 為本報告同時覆蓋之同業（Unimicron 3037／Zhen Ding 4958）目標價歷史圖，非南電（8046）本身資料，故不嵌入南電公司頁；因涉及之 3037 頁本輪由其他批次處理中，本批不另建/更新該同業頁面。

原始內容

NTS M

Asia Summer School 2026

Jun-26

Prelim

2Q26

MSe

Cons

M July 30, 2026 12:56 PM GMT

Nan Ya PCB | Asia Pacific

Margin improvement monthly in 2Q; total 2Q net profit 4% above MSe

Key Takeaways

• We believe the AI-driven up-cycle remains in early innings, with undersupply seen emerging from CY27 onward.
• NYPCB's BT substrate business should continue to benefit from the memory super-cycle.
• Stay OW - on a 12-month view, we prefer Unimicron over NYPCB and Zhen Ding.

Details of the release: NYPCB reported June 2026 profit per TWSE regulatory requirements:

• June pre-tax margin at 26.8% (+470bps m/m)
• June net profit margin at 18.9% (+130bps m/m)

NYPCB was required to disclose every month in 2Q, so we can see the monthly margin improvements during the quarter ( Exhibit 2 ).

NYPCB is set to report full 2Q numbers on August 6, but we now have unaudited 2Q net profit as they had disclosed preliminary April (report here) and May (report here). 2Q net profit reached ~NT$2,261M, which is 4% above MSe and in line with the Street.

• Unaudited 2Q pre-tax margin is 21.9%, which is 250bps above MSe and 120bps above the Street, implying there could be upside to gross margin estimates.

Exhibit 1 : NYPCB's preliminary May 2026 profit numbers

Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates.

Update

Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW, 8046 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026)

52-Week Range

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

EV, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

Overweight

In-Line

NT$1,550.00

85

NT$837.00

NT$1,415.00-166.00

646

NT$540,919

NT$531,829

NT$9,589

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For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

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• alya

NYPCB

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

M

26.8%

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research.

M

AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction

M

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Unimicron (3037.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 15%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
• n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition
• n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity

Zhen Ding (4958.TW)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 10%, a mediumterm growth rate of 15% and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Higher-than-expected F-PCB content increase for iPhones
• n Better-than-expected production yield/share allocation for SLP
• n Share gains on higher margin F-PCB pieces

Risks to Downside

• n Worse-than-expected iPhone sell-through
• n Lower-than-expected F-PCB content increase for iPhones
• n Worse-than-expected production yield/share allocation for SLP
• n Increasing competition from Chinese peers, intensifying pricing pressure

Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.3% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 17%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF and BT demand
• n Faster-than-expected pickup in AI and 5G demand
• n Stronger-than-expected ASP hike

M

• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g. CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall, creating headwinds for ABF substrate demand and pricing
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition

M

Disclosure Section

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