PDF 原檔：報告_MS_勤誠8210_20261008_original.pdf
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45KB | 真資料圖（財務類，不嵌公司頁） | Exhibit 1：2012 至 2026 年勤誠月營收（黃線，右軸 NT$mn）與股價（藍線）；2026 年營收與股價高點後股價回落至約 NT$870 |
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46KB | 真資料圖（財務類，不嵌公司頁） | MS 目標價沿革圖：股價線與 PT 紅色階梯（700→730→1,130→1,200→1,280→1,780→1,600），2026 年高點後股價回落至約 NT$880 |
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原始內容
M Update October 8, 2026 12:09 PM GMT
Chenbro | Asia Pacific
September Sales +1% MoM/ +14% YoY
In this report, we focus on Chenbro's monthly sales, which we belie e could be a catalyst for its share price.
Details:
- September sales were NT$2,476mn (+1% MoM/+14% YoY)
- 3Q26 sales came in at NT$7,395mn (-5% QoQ/+31% YoY), short of our 3Q26 estimate at NT$8,368mn (+7% QoQ/+48% YoY) and the consensus at NT $8,552mn (+9% QoQ/+51% YoY)
Our view:
- 3Q26 revenue fell slightly short of the buyside expectation of roughly flat QoQ, in our view, and 4Q26 should be flat to up slightly QoQ
- We think near-term sentiment will remain lackluster amid the temporary hiccup resulting from supply-chain management issues and its customer's model transition That said, demand from its GPU/ASIC server clusters and general servers should remain strong, driving orders for its chassis and rack offerings
- Stay OW
Exhibit 1: Chenbro's monthly sales vs. its share price since 2012
Note: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results shown o not inclu e transaction costs. Source: Company ata, TEJ, Morgan Stanley Research.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
| Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst An y.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Chenbro(8210.TW, 8210 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry iew | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$1,600.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 83 |
| hr price, close (Oct 8, 2026) | NT$874.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$1,590.00-597.00 |
| h out, dil, curr (mn) | 122 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$107,010 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$104,457 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$2,402 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP (NT$)** | 29.06 | 47.77 | 58.77 | 68.77 |
| EP (NT$)§ | 28.97 | 48.20 | 63.98 | 83.20 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 22,001 | 32,467 | 42,173 | 49,177 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 5,101 | 8,347 | 10,106 | 11,733 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 3,558 | 5,849 | 7,196 | 8,420 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 34.6 | 18.3 | 14.9 | 12.7 |
| P/BV | 11.4 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| RNOA (%) | 48.5 | 68.8 | 67.5 | 74.5 |
| ROE (%) | 49.0 | 52.8 | 47.3 | 43.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.2 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 8.0 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 2.1 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (28.3) | (34.1) | (45.7) | (54.8) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan tanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction
| Company / Catalyst | Date | Impact to thesis | Catalyst versus expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chenbro 8210.TW | |||
| eptember 2026 ales | 08 Oct 2026 | Unchanged | Modest downside surprise |
ource:Company data, Morgan tanley Research
M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Chenbro (8210.TW)
Base case, derived from 27x 2027e P/E We view our target multiple as justified by the 33% earnings CAGR we see for 2025-28, which implies a PEG of 0 8 This is in line the average of 0 8 over 2014-24, when the stock was trading at an average P/E of 12x for a 15% earnings CAGR
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger AI capex outlook
- n Larger market share gains within existing customers
- n Faster penetration into new customers
- n Higher entry barrier among peers that leads to higher ASP/profitability
- n Better macro outlook
Risks to Downside
- n Softer AI capex
- n Less share gains within existing customers
- n Slower penetration into new customers
- n Intensifying competition leading to lower ASP/profitability
- n Continuous macro uncertainties
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Gre ter Chin Technology H rdw re
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/08/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Technologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/29/2024) | HK$37.24 |
| Accelink Technologies Co. Ltd. (002281. Z) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb152.01 |
| BYD Electronics (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$22.14 |
| China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd (002373. Z) | E (07/18/2023) | Rmb7.18 |
| Dahua Technology Co. Ltd. (002236. Z) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb15.29 |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (300502. Z) | O (02/27/2026) | Rmb378.50 |
| Genius Electronic Optical Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | U (09/10/2026) | NT$1,060.00 |
| GoerTek Inc (002241. Z) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb21.70 |
| Gosuncn Technology Group Co Ltd (300098. Z) | U (11/07/2022) | Rmb4.10 |
| HIKVision Digital Technology (002415. Z) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb33.00 |
| Largan Precision (3008.TW) | E (09/10/2026) | NT$6,660.00 |
| LianChuang Electronic Technology Co Ltd (002036. Z) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.83 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (002600. Z) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb11.42 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$5.18 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$50.80 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475. Z) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb48.43 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456. Z) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb6.39 |
| Q Technology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$4.84 |
| Quectel Wireless olutions Co Ltd (603236. ) | E (10/09/2024) | Rmb68.49 |
| hanghai Conant Optical Co Ltd (2276.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$35.06 |
| henzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036. ) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb46.10 |
| unny Optical (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$60.05 |
| uzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd. (300394. Z) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb235.07 |
| Wingtech Technology Co Ltd (600745. ) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb16.00 |
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | O (04/14/2021) | HK$23.66 |
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable J C Ltd (601869. ) | U (10/13/2021) | Rmb393.99 |
M Update M Update Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable J C Ltd (6869.HK) | O (07/15/2026) | HK$167.60 |
|---|---|---|
| Yongxin Optics Co Ltd (603297. ) | E (11/15/2022) | Rmb101.20 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co Ltd (002273. Z) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb23.15 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308. Z) | O (09/07/2026) | Rmb783.00 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/07/2026) | HK$999.50 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$20.70 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063. Z) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb29.32 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| Accton Technology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$2,070.00 |
| Advantech (2395.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$727.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,205.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/2024) | NT$3,440.00 |
| AU Optronics (2409.TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$36.60 |
| Auras Technology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,520.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$2,360.00 |
| BOE Technology (000725. Z) | O (09/06/2019) | Rmb5.50 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (07/23/2025) | NT$874.00 |
| Chroma Ate Inc. (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$2,330.00 |
| Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW) | O (07/13/2017) | NT$1,965.00 |
| E Ink Holdings Inc. (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$144.00 |
| Ennostar Inc (3714.TW) | U (09/23/2022) | NT$67.00 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,370.00 |
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$332.50 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/2025) | NT$51.00 |
| King lide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$10,615.00 |
| Lens Technology (300433. Z) | E (07/22/2020) | Rmb30.04 |
| Lite-On Technology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$297.50 |
| TCL Corp. (000100. Z) | E (04/07/2025) | Rmb4.63 |
| Tianma Microelectronics (000050. Z) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb6.18 |
| Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co Ltd (300567. Z) | E (11/26/2021) | Rmb175.19 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| Acer Inc. (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$31.30 |
| Asustek Computer Inc. (2357.TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$996.00 |
| Catcher Technology (2474.TW) | U (11/17/2025) | NT$195.50 |
| Compal Electronics (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$35.50 |
| Elite Material Co. (2383.TW) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$6,000.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$4.67 |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138. ) | O (07/10/2019) | Rmb55.69 |
| Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$363.00 |
| Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$1,285.00 |
| Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$249.00 |
| Inspur Electronic Information (000977. Z) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb64.56 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (09/14/2026) | HK$50.15 |
| LandMark Optoelectronics Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$2,960.00 |
| Lenovo (0992.HK) | O (07/10/2026) | HK$32.32 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | E (05/12/2025) | NT$1,915.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,475.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$89.70 |
| Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$325.50 |
| hengyi Technology Co Ltd. (600183. ) | E (05/26/2022) | Rmb131.86 |
| hennan Circuits Co Ltd (002916. Z) | E (08/24/2023) | Rmb368.02 |
| Unimicron (3037.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,270.00 |
| Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (09/11/2023) | NT$558.00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) | O (07/12/2023) | NT$188.50 |
| Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (11/10/2025) | NT$2,240.00 |
| Yageo Corp. (2327.TW) - Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | O (10/28/2025) - ++ | NT$635.00 - NT$592.00 |
|---|---|---|
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Tech Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$535.00 |
| Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (6274.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$1,740.00 |
- Historical prices are not split a juste .
© 2026 Morgan Stanley