PDF 原檔：報告_MS_創意3443_20261102_original.pdf
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43KB | 真資料圖 | 創意 NTM 滾動本益比 2013–2026 折線，標示平均 37x、±1SD 50x／24x、±2SD 63x／11x；2017、2022–23 兩次高點約 64x、74x，近期約 52–63x |
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53KB | 真資料圖 | MS 風險報酬圖：股價 2025-11 至 2026-11 走勢（現價 NT$7,285），右側扇形標示目標價 NT$8,600（+18.05%）、牛市 NT$11,680（+60.33%）、熊市 NT$5,300（-27.25%）；上方為共識目標價分布 NT$3,265–12,000，MS PT 與均值位置 |
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17KB | 裝飾／小圖（不留意義） | 營收地區分布圓環圖與圖例（歐洲不含英國 0–10%、日本 10–20%、中國大陸 10–20%、北美 20–30%、亞太其他 30–40%），區間粗估、無精確數值，<40KB 未逐項採用 |
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30KB | 真資料圖 | MS 2026E 預估 vs 共識區間：營收 66,686（共識均值 62,620，區間 51,446–73,926）、EBIT 8,830（8,303；7,015–9,548）、淨利 7,892（7,420；6,377–8,583）、EPS 58.52（55.32；47.62–63.94） |
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59KB | 真資料圖 | 創意股價（藍線）與 MS 目標價階梯（紅色虛線），2023-11 至 2026-11；目標價自 1500 起，歷經 1330／1600／1830／1680／1480／1580／1800／2288／3288／4888／5688，至最新階梯 6288（本報告上調 8,600 未在圖上），並標示評等變化點（E/A、O/A、O/I） |
原始內容
M Idea November 2, 2026 03:04 PM GMT
Global Unichip Corp | Asia Pacific
Further CPU demand upside; stay OW
| What's Changed | To | |
|---|---|---|
| Global Unichip Corp Price Target | From NT$6,288.00 | NT$8,600.00 |
CPU demand remains robust and we see upside in both 2027 and 2028 from our previous forecast We raise our price target to NT$8,600
Axion CPU demand remains strong and on track: We noted in a prior report that demand for Google's Axion CPUs, which GUC helps design, remains robust. Howe er, we now see further upside in both 2027 and 2028 from our pre ious forecast. Also, some in estors ha e questioned whether the Axion3 schedule has been pushed out. Our recent supply chain checks suggest that Axion3 has already reached wafer-in and is on track for wafer-out in mid-2027. Axion CPU could reach 45mn units of Axion2 equi alent CPU in 2027, gi en that Axion3 includes two computing dies but also adopts TSMC 3nm process. We now forecast olume at 4mn units of Axion2 and 500k units of Axion3 in 2027, then 3mn units of Axion3 in 2028. We project ASP at US$700 and US$1400, respecti ely.
We also see upside surprise from Cobalt CPU: We belie e the CPU demand upside is coming not just from Axion but also Microsoft's Cobalt CPU. GUC continues to get more front-end wafer support from TSMC; gi en strong CPU demand, we now forecast >1mn units of Cobalt 200 in 2027 with ASP of ~US$700. Our industry checks also suggest that Cobalt 300 is on track for mass production in 2028, which might adopt TSMC's 2nm process. By assuming it could also be a dual-computing-die CPU, we currently forecast the ASP to be ~US$1800 with 500k units in 2028.
3 26 revenue beat from CPU customers' demand pull-forward and new
customer: The company posted its 3Q26 results: re enue beat our estimate strongly (by 23%); the upside comes mostly from the largest CPU customer's pulling demand forward (50-55% of 3Q26 total re enue) and also the new US AI customer, which has adopted the 5nm process and SoW (system-on-wafer) at TSMC. In 4Q26, we expect a major Chinese auto company to start to contribute re enue. With the ongoing robust CPU demand, we now expect 4Q26 re enue to be up 20% QoQ. See Exhibit 3 for our 3Q26 earnings re iew.
Reiterate OW and raise price target to NT$8600: This 37% increase mostly reflects the upside we ha e seen from CPU demand. Howe er, aside from CPU demand, we also see strong re enue from Tesla, Meta, Horizon, etc. in 2028. Thus, we expect 2025-28 re enue CAGR to reach 120%. Our new price target implies P/E of 52x for 2027e and 27x for 2028e, which we think is justified by its strong re enue growth.
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst C arlie.C an@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Lucas Wang Equity Analyst Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW, 3443 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | verweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$8,600.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 18 |
| hr price, close (Nov 2, 2026) | NT$7,285.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$8,750.00- |
| 1,470.00 | |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$982,542 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$10,923 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12 25 | 12 26e | 12 27e | 12 28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP (NT$)** | 27.95 | 58.52 | 162.81 | 314.17 |
| Prior EP (NT$)** | - | 49.97138.14209.53 | ||
| EP (NT$)§ | 27.83 | 55.32 | 127.64 | 230.88 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 34,141 | 66,686216,300381,686 | ||
| P/E | 76.0 | 124.5 | 44.7 | 23.2 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
- e = Morgan tanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Idea
Strong chip demand from CPU and AI business
Axion CPU should be the largest customer for GUC in 2026-2028: We therefore now forecast only 1.5mn units of Google Axion2 CPU in 2026, gi en the demand pull-in. By assuming chip ASP at ~US$700, we now see 2026 Google CPU contributing slightly more than US$1000mn.
For 2027, we ha e been seeing strong rises in demand expectations for Axion CPU, including the ramp of the next-generation Axion3. We now expect Axion CPU re enue of close to US$3.5bn, including 4mn units of Axion2 and 500k units of Axion3. In addition, we also expect the chip ASP of Axion3 to double from Axion2 gi en the increase of 3nm computing dies from one to two.
For 2028, we now forecast 3mn units of Axion3, slightly lower than Axion2's annual run rate of 4mn units, mostly also dri en by the doubling of computing dies.
CPU turnkey re enue carries a low gross margin for Axion CPU - likely around 10% - because this is a 'Turnkey 2 or 3' project, where GUC pro ides ad anced packaging design support (e.g., silicon interposer and ABF substrates) but does not own the photomasks for the ASIC designs. We also expect margin for Axion3 to be slightly lower than for Axion2, gi en higher chip ASP or larger project size.
Cobalt demand could also grow 3-4x in 2027: GUC also helps with Microsoft's Cobalt 200/300 CPU. We now forecast at least US$1bn of GUC re enue contribution from Cobalt 200 and Maia 200 in 2027. Also, our industry checks also suggest that Cobalt 300 is on track for mass production in 2028, which might adopt TSMC's 2nm process. By assuming it could also be a dual-computing-die CPU, we currently forecast the ASP to be ~US$1800 with 500k units in 2028.
Meta ASIC (MTIA 600): In our AI supply chain tracker, we noted our belief that GUC could win one of the Meta ASIC projects, led by the Ri os team, and we now think it might be MTIA 600, based on supply chain checks. The AI ASIC targets tape-out in 1H27, with potential CoWoS out in 2028.
Note: these forecasts are from Asia Pacific research and incorporate supply chain and industry checks.
Exhibit 1: We expect US CSP projects to contribute >70% of GUC's 2027 revenue
| Revenue (US$ mn) | 2025e | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | 2025 Y/Y | 2026 Y/Y | 2027 Y/Y | 2028 Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRE | ||||||||
| Normal NRE projects | 76 | 100 | 130 | 150 | -49% | 32% | 30% | 15% |
| Ship-outs | 185 | 200 | 220 | 250 | 68% | 8% | 10% | 14% |
| Total NRE | 261 | 300 | 350 | 400 | 0% | 15% | 17% | 14% |
| Turnkey | ||||||||
| US CSPs | 210 | 1,130 | 4,950 | 9,000 | 600% | 438% | 338% | 82% |
| Others | 621 | 670 | 1,550 | 2,700 | 31% | 8% | 131% | 74% |
| Total turnkey | 831 | 1,800 | 6,500 | 11,700 | 65% | 117% | 261% | 80% |
| Others | ||||||||
| IP | 8 | 17 | 17 | 17 | -43% | 113% | 0% | 0% |
| Total revenue | 1,100 | 2,117 | 6,867 | 12,117 | 41% | 92% | 224% | 76% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc (e) estimates M Idea
Exhibit 2: GUC: Major customer breakdown
| Revenue (US$ mn) | 2025e | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | 2025 Y/Y | 2026 Y/Y | 2027 Y/Y | 2028 Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRE | ||||||||
| Normal NRE projects | 76 | 100 | 130 | 150 | -49% | 32% | 30% | 15% |
| Ship-outs | 185 | 200 | 220 | 250 | 68% | 8% | 10% | 14% |
| Total NRE | 261 | 300 | 350 | 400 | 0% | 15% | 17% | 14% |
| Turnkey | ||||||||
| Microsoft | 60 | 80 | 1,050 | 1,500 | 100% | 33% | 1213% | 43% |
| 150 | 1,050 | 3,500 | 4,200 | NA | 600% | 233% | 20% | |
| Korean AI Start-up | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | NA | NA | -100% | NA |
| Tesla | 0 | 0 | 400 | 1,800 | NA | NA | NA | 350% |
| Meta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,500 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| US AI design house using SoW | 0 | 100 | 480 | 1,000 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Amazon Lab 126 | 0 | 50 | 100 | 100 | NA | NA | 100% | 0% |
| SK Hynix | 50 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -38% | -80% | 0% | 0% |
| Sandisk | 0 | 20 | 250 | 250 | NA | NA | 1150% | 0% |
| Horizon | 0 | 20 | 250 | 750 | NA | NA | 1150% | 200% |
| Suzhou Centec | 54 | 27 | 14 | 7 | -50% | -50% | -50% | -50% |
| Macronix | 56 | 68 | 81 | 98 | 30% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| DJI | 35 | 10 | 5 | 5 | -31% | -71% | -50% | 0% |
| Aspeed | 105 | 121 | 139 | 150 | 50% | 15% | 15% | 8% |
| Sony | 29 | 26 | 23 | 21 | -10% | -10% | -10% | -10% |
| Other turnkey | 292 | 198 | 198 | 310 | 221% | -32% | 0% | 56% |
| Total turnkey | 831 | 1,800 | 6,500 | 11,700 | 65% | 117% | 261% | 80% |
| Ex-US CSP turnkey | 621 | 670 | 1,550 | 4,200 | 31% | 8% | 131% | 171% |
| IP | ||||||||
| Google (GLink) | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | NA | 150% | 0% | 0% |
| Microsoft (HBM3E) | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| Others | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | -80% | 250% | 0% | 0% |
| Total revenue | 1,100 | 2,117 | 6,867 | 12,117 | 41.2% | 92.5% | 224.4% | 76.5% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc (e) estimates
Exhibit 3: GUC strongly beat our previous 3Q26 estimates
| (NT$ mn) | 3Q26 - Actual | 3Q26 - Q/Q | 3Q26 - Y/Y | 3Q26 - MS Est. | 3Q26 - Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | |||||
| Revenue | 18,755 | 35.0% | 117.7% | 15,288 | 15,860 |
| Opex | (1,309) | -0.6% | 26.9% | (1,432) | (1,399) |
| EPS (NT$) | 16.95 | 47.0% | 163.7% | 9.14 | 12.44 |
| GP | 3,860 | 2,828 | 3,324 | ||
| Ratios | |||||
| GM (%) | 20.6% | -96bps | -364bps | 18.5% | 21.0% |
| OP | 2,551 | 1,396 | 1,925 | ||
| Opex (%) | 7.0% | -250bps | -499bps | 9.4% | 8.8% |
| OPM (%) | 13.6% | 154bps | 136bps | 9.1% | 12.1% |
Source: Company Data, Visible Alp a, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates
M Idea
Estimate revision summary
We raise our EPS estimates 17% for 2026, 18% for 2027, and 50% for 2028: Our increases come mostly from the strength in CPU as well as other AI projects' contribution, including Meta ASIC, US design house adopting SoW, etc. With turnkey re enue share seen increasing in both 2027 and 2028, we now assume that gross margin will fall from 21.4% in 2026 to 15.4% in 2028. Howe er, we expect firmer operating margin this year, thanks to a policy change regarding employee bonus; although this assumption dips in 2027, it rebounds in 2028 because of larger re enue scale with better operating le erage. The same trend is isible in net margin.
Exhibit 4: GUC: Estimate revision summary
| NT$ mn | New '26e | Old '26e | Diff. | New '27e | Old '27e | Diff. | New '28e | Old '28e | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 66,686 | 63,487 | 5% | 216,300 | 181,440 | 19% | 381,686 | 264,915 | 44% |
| NRE | 9,450 | 9,452 | 0% | 11,015 | 11,003 | 0% | 12,600 | 12,555 | 0% |
| Turnkey | 57,236 | 54,035 | 6% | 205,286 | 170,437 | 20% | 369,086 | 252,360 | 46% |
| Gross profit | 14,263 | 13,179 | 8% | 32,343 | 28,269 | 14% | 58,800 | 40,642 | 45% |
| Operating profit | 8,830 | 7,554 | 17% | 25,515 | 21,650 | 18% | 49,531 | 32,978 | 50% |
| Pretax Income | 9,152 | 7,844 | 17% | 25,833 | 21,919 | 18% | 49,849 | 33,247 | 50% |
| Net income | 7,892 | 6,740 | 17% | 21,958 | 18,631 | 18% | 42,372 | 28,260 | 50% |
| Reported EPS | 58.52 | 49.97 | 17% | 162.81 | 138.14 | 18% | 314.17 | 209.53 | 50% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 21.4% | 20.8% | 15.0% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 15.3% | |||
| Opex ratio | 8.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | |||
| Operating margin | 13.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 12.4% | |||
| Net margin | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.7% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc (e) estimates
Exhibit 5: GUC: Quarterly financials
| (NT$ mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26e | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenues | 7,024 | 6,105 | 8,613 | 12,400 | 11,448 | 13,897 | 18,755 | 22,587 | 25,044 | 34,141 | 66,686 | 216,300 | 381,686 |
| Q/Q Change | 16.6% | -13.1% | 41.1% | 44.0% | -7.7% | 21.4% | 35.0% | 20.4% | |||||
| Y/Y Change | 23.4% | -9.2% | 30.3% | 105.9% | 63.0% | 127.6% | 117.7% | 82.2% | -4.6% | 36.3% | 95.3% | 224.4% | 76.5% |
| Cost of Sales | 5,051 | 4,071 | 6,527 | 10,038 | 8,335 | 10,903 | 14,894 | 18,292 | 16,937 | 25,687 | 52,423 | 183,957 | 322,886 |
| Percent of Revenues | 71.9% | 66.7% | 75.8% | 81.0% | 72.8% | 78.5% | 79.4% | 81.0% | 67.6% | 75.2% | 78.6% | 85.0% | 84.6% |
| Gross Profit | 1,973 | 2,034 | 2,086 | 2,361 | 3,113 | 2,994 | 3,860 | 4,295 | 8,108 | 8,454 | 14,263 | 32,343 | 58,800 |
| Gross Margin | 28.1% | 33.3% | 24.2% | 19.0% | 27.2% | 21.5% | 20.6% | 19.0% | 32.4% | 24.8% | 21.4% | 15.0% | 15.4% |
| Total Opex | 878 | 1,090 | 1,031 | 1,105 | 1,289 | 1,318 | 1,309 | 1,516 | 4,305 | 4,104 | 5,432 | 6,828 | 9,268 |
| Percent of Revenues | 12.5% | 17.9% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 17.2% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| R&D | 800 | 837 | 813 | 880 | 1,013 | 1,046 | 1,038 | 1,099 | 3,223 | 3,330 | 4,196 | 4,791 | 6,340 |
| Percent of Revenues | 11.4% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| General & Adm Exp. | -18 | 159 | 125 | 129 | 151 | 153 | 159 | 169 | 674 | 395 | 633 | 740 | 1,020 |
| Percent of Revenues | -0.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Selling Expenses | 97 | 94 | 93 | 96 | 125 | 119 | 112 | 248 | 407 | 379 | 603 | 1,298 | 1,908 |
| Percent of Revenues | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Operating Income | 1,095 | 944 | 1,055 | 1,257 | 1,824 | 1,676 | 2,551 | 2,779 | 3,803 | 4,350 | 8,830 | 25,515 | 49,531 |
| Operating Margin | 15.6% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 13.0% |
| Total Non-operating Income (loss) | 48 | -15 | -40 | 99 | 101 | 80 | 74 | 67 | 260 | 93 | 322 | 318 | 318 |
| Profit Before Taxes | 1,143 | 929 | 1,015 | 1,356 | 1,925 | 1,756 | 2,626 | 2,846 | 4,062 | 4,443 | 9,152 | 25,833 | 49,849 |
| Percent of Revenues | 16.3% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 16.8% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 13.1% |
| Taxes | 181 | 147 | 148 | 196 | 278 | 201 | 354 | 427 | 612 | 673 | 1,260 | 3,875 | 7,477 |
| Tax Rate | 15.9% | 15.9% | 14.6% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Minor interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Net Income to Parent | 961 | 782 | 867 | 1,160 | 1,646 | 1,555 | 2,272 | 2,419 | 3,451 | 3,770 | 7,892 | 21,958 | 42,372 |
| Percent of Revenues | 13.7% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% |
| Reported Basic EPS (NT$, TW GAAP) | 7.13 | 5.80 | 6.43 | 8.60 | 12.21 | 11.53 | 16.85 | 17.93 | 25.63 | 27.95 | 58.52 | 162.81 | 314.17 |
| Y/Y Change | 45% | -14% | -16% | 37% | 71% | 99% | 162% | 109% | -2% | 9% | 109% | 178% | 93% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc (e) estimates M Idea
Price target rises 37%, to NT$8,600
This reflects our 2027-28 estimate re isions. Although we are cutting our terminal growth rate assumption from 5% to 4.5% because of margin dilution, our other key aluation assumptions are unchanged, including cost of equity of 9.2% (a beta of 1.2, a risk premium of 6%, and a risk-free rate of 2%), and intermediate growth rate of 14.5%.
Our bull and bear case alues rise by similar magnitudes, to NT$11,680 and NT$5,300, respecti ely.
Exhibit 6: GUC: Residual income model
| NT$million | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | 2029e | 2030e | 2031e | 2032e | 2033e | 2034e | 2035e | 2036e | 2037e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Equity | 18,759 | 36,433 | 66,886 | 87,478 | 111,057 | 138,054 | 168,966 | 204,361 | 244,887 | 291,290 | 344,421 | 405,256 |
| Net Profit | 7,892 | 21,958 | 42,372 | 48,516 | 55,551 | 63,606 | 72,828 | 83,389 | 95,480 | 109,325 | 125,177 | 143,327 |
| ROAE | 49.8% | 79.6% | 82.0% | 62.9% | 56.0% | 51.1% | 47.4% | 44.7% | 42.5% | 40.8% | 39.4% | 38.2% |
| Residual Income | 5,247 | 13,201 | 26,531 | 35,890 | 40,905 | 46,495 | 52,795 | 59,938 | 68,066 | 77,334 | 87,916 | 100,010 |
| Spread | 40.6% | 70.4% | 72.8% | 53.7% | 46.8% | 41.9% | 38.2% | 35.5% | 33.3% | 31.6% | 30.2% | 29.0% |
| Ending Equity Capital | 18,759 | |||||||||||
| PV of Forecast Period | 289,263 | |||||||||||
| PV of Continuing Value | 844,523 | |||||||||||
| Equity Value | 1,152,545 | |||||||||||
| No. of Shares | 134 | |||||||||||
| Projected Price | 8,600 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc (e) estimates
Relative valuation
Our price target of NT$8,600 implies 52x our 2027 EPS estimate, around +1 SD from GUC's historical NTM P/E since 2013. We maintain our iew that the design ser ice market will proliferate with AI ASIC outgrowing AI GPU in the long term, and therefore belie e that further re-rating would be justified with project wins likely to come. Despite slower reco ery of non-AI business, we continue to appreciate GUC's growing exposure to cloud AI semis (including AI accelerators, AI ser er CPU, and BMC chips).
Exhibit 7: GUC: NTM rolling P/E
Source: Company data, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates M Idea
Risk Reward - Global Unichip Corp (3443 TW) Risk Reward - Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW)
Winning more CSP projects
NT$8,600.00 PRICE TARGET
Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: a cost of equity of 9.2%, an intermediate growth rate of 14.5%, and a terminal growth rate of 4.5%.
NT$7,030.59
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
BULL CASE
BASE CASE
OVERWEIGHT THESIS
- ▪We maintain our view that the design service market will proliferate with AI ASIC outgrowing AI GPU in the long term.
- ▪We therefore believe that further re-rating would be justified with project wins likely to come.
- ▪Despite slower recovery of non-AI business, we continue to appreciate GUC' s growing exposure to cloud AI semis (including AI accelerators, AI server CPU, and BMC chips).
- ▪Axion CPU demand remains strong and on track: We also see upside surprise from Cobalt CPU.
- ▪Our price target of NT$8,600 implies 52x our 2027 EPS estimate, around +1 SD from GUC' s historical NTM P/E since 2013.
- ▪This multiple is just 27x based on our significantly increased 2028e EPS.
Consensus Rating Distribution
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
Risk Reward Themes
New Data Era:
Positive
Pricing Power:
Negative
Secular Growth:
Positive
View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here
BEAR CASE
71x 2027e EPS
Multiple leading-edge NRE projects successfully translate into volume production with healthy margin profiles. Many AI chipsets or other projects start to proliferate with substantial end demand, with customers' interest in migrating to more advanced nodes. Networking switch demand is stronger than expected, while SSD controller project contributions are sustainable in 2026. 3/5nm turnkey revenue growth is stronger than expected in 2026 and beyond.
52x 2027e EPS
Networking switch turnkey projects volume remains stable. A few new leading-edge turnkey projects start to show decent shipments. TSMC's leading-edge tape-out numbers increase steadily, while some "turnkey 2/3" (TK2 and TK3) projects contribute to NRE and turnkey revenue. CSP (AI) revenue contribution should be the major growth driver for 2026 and 2027, as well as the auto chip and SSD controller projects.
32x 2027e EPS
AI chipsets and other projects lack concrete end demand, resulting in delayed tape-outs. TSMC's leading-edge tape-out numbers decrease or some customers turn directly to TSMC. BMC and SSD project losses arise from customers' in-sourcing. Fiercer-thanexpected talent competition leads to higher opex to retain R&D engineers. High volume turnkey projects carry lower-than-expected gross margin.
NT$5,300.00
NT$11,680.00
NT$8,600.00
M Idea
Risk Reward - Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
| Drivers | Dec 2025 | Dec 2026e | Dec 2027e | Dec 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRE revenue Y/Y (%) | (4.8) | 17.6 | 16.6 | 14.4 |
| Turnkey revenue Y/Y (%) | 59.2 | 122.4 | 258.7 | 79.8 |
| Turnkey revenue (NT$, mn) | 25,736 | 57,236 | 205,286 | 369,086 |
| Turnkey revenue contribution (%) | 75.4 | 85.8 | 94.9 | 96.7 |
INVESTMENT DRIVERS
- ASIC/ASSP industry demand
- Technology migration to more advanced nodes
- New projects driven by China's semi localization efforts
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here
MS ALPHA MODELS
3/5 MOST
3 Month
Horizon
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile
RISKS TO PT/RATING
RISKS TO UPSIDE
- Design service market proliferates even more rapidly.
- 5nm, 3nm and advanced packaging customers speed up tape-outs.
- AI and other high-growth projects gain greater customer traction.
- 5nm turnkey momentum is faster than expected.
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
- AI and other high-growth projects lose customer traction.
- Customers' inventory correction is longer than expected.
- 5nm and below ASIC projects contribute less than expected.
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
Inst. Owners, % Active
67%
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Morgan Stanley Estimates
Mean
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research M Idea
Financial summary
Income Statement
Cash Flow Statement
(9,268) Working Capital Change
2028e Other adjustments
| NT$mn (Years End Dec ) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashflow from Operations | 6,242 | (1,143) | 3,270 | (2,427) | 23,092 |
| Net profits | 3,451 | 3,770 | 7,892 | 21,958 | 42,372 |
| Depreciation | 247 | 273 | 273 | 273 | 273 |
| Working Capital Change | 1,925 | (5,930) | (4,895) | (24,658) | (19,553) |
| Other adjustments | 619 | 744 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cashflow from Investing | (1,522) | (398) | (273) | (273) | (273) |
| Capex | (471) | (840) | (273) | (273) | (273) |
| Change of LT Investment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Change of ST Investment | (850) | 688 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other adjustments | (201) | (246) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cashflow from financing | (1,962) | (2,227) | (2,046) | (4,284) | (11,919) |
| Increase in L/T debt | (40) | 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Increase in S/T debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash Dividend Paid | (1,876) | (2,144) | (2,046) | (4,284) | (11,919) |
| Dir& Emp Bonus Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Issuance of stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other adjustments | (46) | (178) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Exchange rate adjustment | 31 | (10) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net change in cash | 2,790 | -3,778 | 951 | -6,984 | 10,900 |
3,440 Financial Ratios
36,563 Margins (%)
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth(%) | |||||
| Turnover | -4.6 | 36.3 | 95.3 | 224.4 | 76.5 |
| Operating profits | -4.2 | 14.4 | 103.0 | 188.9 | 94.1 |
| Pretax profits | -2.2 | 9.4 | 106.0 | 182.3 | 93.0 |
| Net profits | -15.8 | 9.2 | 109.4 | 178.2 | 93.0 |
| EPS | -1.5 | 9.1 | 109.4 | 178.2 | 93.0 |
| Margins (%) | |||||
| Gross Margin | 32.4 | 24.8 | 21.4 | 15.0 | 15.4 |
| Operating Margin | 15.2 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 11.8 | 13.0 |
| Pretax Margin | 16.2 | 13.0 | 13.7 | 11.9 | 13.1 |
| Net Profit | 13.8 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| Return (%) | |||||
| ROAE | 32.9 | 31.1 | 49.8 | 79.6 | 82.0 |
| ROAA | 14.6 | 13.8 | 24.5 | 41.9 | 46.2 |
| Gearing (%) | |||||
| Net Debt/Equity | (92.3) | (51.5) | (40.5) | (1.7) | (17.2) |
| Liabilities/Equity | 132.9 | 120.3 | 92.4 | 88.5 | 71.7 |
| Ratios (X) | |||||
| Current ratio | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Quick ratio | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Others | |||||
| AR/NR Turnover (days) | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Inventory Turnover (days) | 82 | 92 | 82 | 72 | 62 |
| AP Turnover (days) | 36 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Cash Conversion (days) | 75 | 80 | 70 | 60 | 50 |
| NT$mn (Years End Dec ) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 25,044 | 34,141 | 66,686 | 216,300 | 381,686 |
| COGS | (16,937) | (25,687) | (52,423) | (183,957) | (322,886) |
| Gross profit | 8,108 | 8,454 | 14,263 | 32,343 | 58,800 |
| Operating expenses | (4,305) | (4,104) | (5,432) | (6,828) | (9,268) |
| Operating income | 3,803 | 4,350 | 8,830 | 25,515 | 49,531 |
| Non-operating income | 260 | 93 | 322 | 318 | 318 |
| Pre-tax income | 4,062 | 4,443 | 9,152 | 25,833 | 49,849 |
| Income tax | 612 | 673 | 1,260 | 3,875 | 7,477 |
| Minority Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reported net Income | 3,451 | 3,770 | 7,892 | 21,958 | 42,372 |
| Adj.wtd.avg.shrs( m) | 134 | 134 | 134 | 134 | 134 |
| Reported EPS (NT$) | 25.63 | 27.95 | 58.52 | 162.81 | 314.17 |
| Modelware EPS (NT$) | 25.63 | 27.95 | 58.52 | 162.81 | 314.17 |
Balance Sheet
| NT$mn (Years End Dec ) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 10,427 | 6,650 | 7,600 | 616 | 11,516 |
| Mkt Securities | 2,980 | 2,082 | 2,082 | 2,082 | 2,082 |
| AR/NR | 2,007 | 3,417 | 5,298 | 17,184 | 30,324 |
| Inventory | 2,794 | 10,148 | 14,973 | 42,639 | 64,785 |
| Other | 6,271 | 3,440 | 3,440 | 3,440 | 3,440 |
| Current Assets | 24,480 | 25,737 | 33,393 | 65,962 | 112,147 |
| Long-term investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fixed assets | 942 | 1,347 | 1,347 | 1,347 | 1,347 |
| Deffered assets | 37 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Other assets | 850 | 1,335 | 1,335 | 1,335 | 1,335 |
| Total Assets | 26,309 | 28,443 | 36,099 | 68,668 | 114,852 |
| S/T borrowings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AP/NP | 1,691 | 4,126 | 5,936 | 20,831 | 36,563 |
| Other ST liabilities | 12,977 | 10,907 | 10,907 | 10,907 | 10,907 |
| LT debt | 73 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 |
| Other LT liabilities | 273 | 328 | 328 | 328 | 328 |
| Common shares | 1,340 | 1,340 | 1,340 | 1,340 | 1,340 |
| Total Liabilities | 15,015 | 15,530 | 17,340 | 32,235 | 47,967 |
| Additional capital | 1,812 | 2,158 | 2,158 | 2,158 | 2,158 |
| Retained earning | 8,145 | 9,431 | 15,277 | 32,951 | 63,403 |
| Other shareholders' equity | (3) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) |
| Total Equity | 11,294 | 12,913 | 18,759 | 36,433 | 66,886 |
| Total Liab. & Shrhldr's Equity | 26,309 | 28,443 | 36,099 | 68,668 | 114,852 |
E = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Company Data M Idea
Risk Reward Reference links
- View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology -
Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology -
ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
- View explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf
M Idea