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報告_MS_京元電2449_3Q26_20261105

更新 2026-11-07

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報告_MS_京元電2449_3Q26_20261105_001.png 59KB 真資料圖 MS 京元電股價、評等與目標價歷史圖(2023-11~2026-11):紅色階梯線為 PT(95.24→…→369.52→338→348),標註評等 O/A、O/I;屬評等歷史,不嵌 lib

原始內容

M Update November 5, 2026 10:10 AM GMT

King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd | Asia Pacific

2027 outlook remains promising; OW

Alpha ignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged In-line

Impact to our thesis

  • odest revision lower Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EP

ource: Company data, Morgan tanley Research

Key Takeaways

  • 3Q26 results largely in line with both MSe and consensus but 4Q26 both revenue and margin guidance missed.
  • Despite the near-term headwind from the supply chain leading to KYEC's weaker performance we expect GPU TPU and CPU demand to all ramp up rapidly from 1Q27.
  • KYEC US capacity is on track for mass production by 4Q27 and full-year contribution in 2028.
  • We stay OW on robust 2027 demand margin recovery and new capacity expansion with strong customers' commitment.

4Q26 guidance cut from the major product delay and weaker martphone demand: The company cut 4Q26 revenue guidance from up >10% to high-single digit QoQ growth given the R-series GPU shipment delays and weaker smartphone/ consumer demand. The gross margin should also decline slightly to 36-37% given the capacity build but lower-than-expected utilization rate.

1Q27 and 2027 demand remain robu t: However the company reiterated that delayed demand will be pushed out to 1Q27 suggesting 1Q27 revenue will be up at least 10-15% QoQ and gross margin will recover to >40%. Looking ahead into 2027 demand remains robust and the company expects 2027 revenue to grow 40-50% YoY with margins >40%.

KYEC in-hou e burn-in oven could tart to upport MediaTek TPU: Despite the shipment delay from Micro Control Company (MCC) MediaTek management still raised its 4Q26 TPU revenue projection for both 4Q26 and 2027. We believe it relates to KYEC's supports of its in-house burn-in oven by end-2026 which could potentially leave more share to KYEC against ASE if MCC's oven shipments continue to fall short in 2027.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Lucas Wang Equity Analyst Lucas Wang@morganstanley com +886 2 2730-2875
Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie Chan@morganstanley com +886 2 2730-1725
Daniel Yen CFA Equity Analyst Daniel Yen@morganstanley com +886 2 2730-2863
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai CFA Equity Analyst Daisy Dai@morganstanley com +852 2848-7310
Henry Zhao Equity Analyst Henry Zhao@morganstanley com Ethan Jia Research Associate +852 2239-7731
Ethan Jia@morganstanley com +852 3963-2287

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd (2449.TW, 2449 TT)

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Stock Rating Overweight
Industry View Attractive
Price target NT$348.00
Up/downside to price target (%) 52
hr price, close (Nov 5, 2026) NT$228.50
52-Week Range NT$350.00-187.14
h out, dil, curr (mn) 1,230
Mkt cap, curr (mn) NT$280,978
Avg daily trading value (mn) NT$7,867
Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e
EP (NT$)** 8.96 9.06 13.66 18.89
EP (NT$)§ 8.94 8.59 14.55 20.35
Revenue, net (NT$ mn) 34,934 47,683 67,303 89,529
EBITDA (NT$ mn) 16,516 27,207 43,467 54,032
ModelWare net inc (NT 11,016 11,369 17,559 24,281
$ mn)
Div yld (%) 1.9 2.0 4.3 4.3
P/E** 26.3 25.2 16.7 12.1

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan tanley Research estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update

Exhibit 1: 3Q26 Earnings Review - largely in line

(NT$ mn) 3Q26 - Actual 3Q26 - Q/Q 3Q26 - Y/Y 3Q26 - MS Est. 3Q26 - Consensus
Financials
Revenue 12,142 9.0% 30.7% 12,079 12,113
Opex (1,427) -9.2% 67.0% (1,092) (1,386)
EPS (NT$) 2.06 15.9% 16.3% 2.22 2.02
GP 4,560 4,596 4,617
Ratios
GM (%) 37.6% -194bps 153bps 38.0% 38.1%
OP 3,133 3,504 3,232
Opex (%) 11.8% -236bps 255bps 9.0% 11.4%
OPM (%) 25.8% 42bps -102bps 29.0% 26.7%

Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd (2449.TW)

Base case residual income model. Key assumptions: cost of equity of 9.8% intermediate-term growth rate of 10.5% terminal growth rate of 3.0% and cash dividend payout ratio of 65%.

Risks to Upside

  • n Rise in shipments for core customers such as MediaTek
  • n Strong AI demand from both GPU and ASIC
  • n Penetration of wafer sorting business
  • n Rise in IDM outsourcing to OSAT

Risks to ownside

  • nOverall non-AI demand remaining weak
  • n Significant testing market share loss
  • nDrop in shipments for core customers such as MediaTek

M Update

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Important Regulatory Di clo ure on Subject Companie

As of Septem er 30, 2026, Morgan Stanley eneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: ACM Research Inc, Advanced Micro-Fa rication Equipment Inc, Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Co, Alchip Technologies Ltd, AllRing Tech Co., AP Memory Technology Corp, ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd., ASMedia Technology Inc, ASMPT Ltd, Aspeed Technology, Cam ricon Technology Corporation, eMemory Technology Inc, GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc, Glo alWafers Co Ltd, Gudeng Precision, Macronix International Co Ltd, Montage Technology Co Ltd, NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd, Novatek, Parade Technologies Ltd, Phison Electronics Corp, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, SG Micro Corp., Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics, SICC Co Ltd, Silergy Corp., Silicon Motion, StarPower Semiconductor Ltd, TSMC, UMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor, WIN Semiconductors Corp, WPG Holdings, WT Microelectronics Co. Ltd..

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a pu lic offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Alchip Technologies Ltd, Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor Co., Ltd., MediaTek, Montage Technology Co Ltd, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, UMC.

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Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment anking services from ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd., King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd, MediaTek, Nanya Technology Corp., Novatek, Nuvoton Technology Corporation, Realtek Semiconductor, Silicon Motion, SMIC, TSMC, UMC, Universal Scientific Ind. (Shanghai), Win ond Electronics Corp, WT Microelectronics Co. Ltd..

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Stock Rating Category Coverage Universe - Count Coverage Universe - % of Total Investment Banking Clients (IBC) - Count Investment Banking Clients (IBC) - % of Total IBC Investment Banking Clients (IBC) - % of Rating Category Other Material Investment Services Clients (MISC) - Count Other Material Investment Services Clients (MISC) - % of Total Other MISC
Overweight/Buy 1575 43% 460 49% 29% 742 44%
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Stock Price, Price Target and Rating Hi tory (See Rating Definition )

M Update

King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd (2449.TW) - As of 11/05/26 GMT in TWD Industry : Greater China Technology Semiconductors

500

Stock Rating History: 11/1/21:E/C; 10/4/22 : E/A; 2/22/23:E/I; 3/3/23 : 0/I; 7/7/23:0/A; 7/21/24 :0/I;7/14/25:0/A

Price Target History: 10/12/21 : 40.95: 1/24/22 :42.86; 5/6/22 :45.71; 7/12/22: 38.1; 3/3/23 :46.67; 6/12/23: 57.14; 7/7/23:64.76;8/29/23:83.81;11/4/23:95.24:2/26/24:104.76;6/25/24:133.33; 11/9/24:152.38;5/12/25:131.43; 3333333135 4/1/26:321.9;6/22/26:369.52:8/8/26:338;10/9/26:348

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Date Format : MM/DD/YY

Price Target No Price Target Assigned (NA)

Stock Price (Not Covered by Current Analyst) Stock Price (Covered by Current Analyst)

Stock Ratings: Overweight (0) Equal-weight (E) Underweight (U) Not-Rated (NR) No Rating Available (NA)

Stock and Industry Ratings (abbreviations below) appear as Stock Rating/Industry View

Industry View: Attractive (A) In-line (I)Cautious (C) No Rating (NR)

Effective January 13, 2014, the stocks covered by Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific will be rated relative to the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage.

Effective January 13, 2014, the industry view benchmarks for Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific are as follows: relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.

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11/01 2026

M Update

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INDU TRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology emiconductors

Company (Ticker) Rating (As Of) Price* (11/05/2026)
Charlie Chan
Advanced Wireless emiconductor Co (8086.TWO) U (07/14/2025) NT$96.40
Alchip Technologies Ltd (3661.TW) O (05/14/2021) NT$2,960.00
A E Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (3711.TW) O (09/15/2024) NT$572.00
Cambricon Technology Corporation (688256. ) O (04/27/2026) Rmb845.00
CXMT Corp (688825. ) O (08/26/2026) Rmb42.53
Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW) O (06/24/2026) NT$6,405.00
Gudeng Precision (3680.TWO) O (11/25/2025) NT$408.50
Hua Hong emiconductor Ltd (1347.HK) E (03/12/2026) HK$67.30
Iluvatar CoreX emiconductor Co., Ltd. (9903.HK) O (04/27/2026) HK$69.00
MediaTek (2454.TW) O (11/28/2025) NT$3,460.00
MetaX Integrated Circuits (688802. ) U (11/02/2026) Rmb487.03
Nanya Technology Corp. (2408.TW) O (05/28/2026) NT$360.00
Phison Electronics Corp (8299.TWO) E (02/25/2026) NT$1,560.00
G Micro Corp. (300661. Z) E (11/03/2025) Rmb85.20
ilergy Corp. (6415.TW) U (05/19/2026) NT$412.00
MIC (0981.HK) O (10/21/2025) HK$47.50
T MC (2330.TW) O (02/07/2022) NT$2,240.00
UMC (2303.TW) O (05/19/2026) NT$98.40
Vanguard International emiconductor (5347.TWO) U (10/30/2026) NT$126.00
WIN emiconductors Corp (3105.TWO) O (10/29/2026) NT$451.00
Daisy Dai, CFA
A MPT Ltd (0522.HK) O (07/24/2025) HK$101.00
China Resources Microelectronics Limited (688396. ) U (03/02/2026) Rmb50.76

M Update

Empyrean Technology Co Ltd (301269. Z) O (11/02/2026) Rmb97.43
Hangzhou ilan Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (600460. ) U (08/25/2025) Rmb24.56
Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd. (688041. ) O (07/03/2026) Rmb192.80
Innoscience (2577.HK) E (10/13/2025) HK$27.88
JCET Group Co Ltd (600584. ) O (09/16/2026) Rmb53.63
hanghai Fudan Microelectronics (1385.HK) O (03/07/2025) HK$23.18
ICC Co Ltd (688234. ) O (03/20/2026) Rmb78.79
J emiconductor Corp (688820. ) E (09/16/2026) Rmb85.17
tarPower emiconductor Ltd (603290. ) U (10/31/2026) Rmb71.85
Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd (002049. Z) U (01/10/2023) Rmb51.33
Universal cientific Ind. ( hanghai) (601231. ) O (11/05/2025) Rmb18.70
Yangjie Technology (300373. Z) O (06/10/2022) Rmb77.69
Daniel Yen, CFA
AP Memory Technology Corp (6531.TW) O (07/11/2025) NT$648.00
A Media Technology Inc (5269.TW) U (10/03/2025) NT$1,220.00
Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO) O (06/09/2025) NT$12,635.00
Egis Technology Inc (6462.TWO) E (01/28/2026) NT$84.30
Elan Microelectronics Corp (2458.TW) E (11/04/2026) NT$117.50
eMemory Technology Inc (3529.TWO) O (08/18/2026) NT$2,025.00
Espressif ystems (688018. ) O (05/15/2023) Rmb164.47
GigaDevice emiconductor Beijing Inc (603986. ) O (05/15/2025) Rmb263.15
Himax Technologies Inc (HIMX.O) E (02/04/2026) U $10.44
Macronix International Co Ltd (2337.TW) O (09/18/2025) NT$79.70
Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809.HK) O (03/18/2026) HK$202.80
Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008. ) O (03/18/2026) Rmb163.80
Novatek (3034.TW) U (02/04/2026) NT$510.00
Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW) U (11/10/2025) NT$97.70
Parade Technologies Ltd (4966.TWO) U (10/29/2026) NT$420.50
Powerchip emiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW) O (10/27/2025) NT$54.80
Realtek emiconductor (2379.TW) E (01/30/2026) NT$720.00
henzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd (603160. ) U (07/14/2025) Rmb62.88
ilicon Motion ( IMO.O) O (05/06/2024) U $182.54
Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW) O (05/28/2026) NT$127.50
WPG Holdings (3702.TW) O (03/16/2026) NT$92.10
WT Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (3036.TW) O (01/27/2026) NT$195.00
Henry Zhao
ACM Research Inc (ACMR.O) O (03/07/2023) U $44.43
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc (688012. ) O (11/06/2023) Rmb254.00
Maxscend Microelectronics Co Ltd (300782. Z) U (01/11/2021) Rmb54.48
NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd (002371. Z) O (11/06/2023) Rmb561.01
OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group Inc (603501. ) E (10/29/2026) Rmb87.98
Lucas Wang
AllRing Tech Co. (6187.TWO) O (09/23/2025) NT$959.00
FOCI Fiber Optic Communications Inc (3363.TWO) E (10/09/2026) NT$400.50
GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO) E (11/04/2026) NT$564.00
Hon Precision (7769.TW) O (04/17/2026) NT$3,980.00
King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd (2449.TW) O (03/03/2023) NT$228.50
MPI Corporation (6223.TWO) O (04/17/2026) NT$3,725.00

Stock Ratings are subject to change Please see latest research for each company

  • Historical prices are not split adjusted

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