與 報告_MS_世芯3661_20260813 的關係
本篇為 MS「AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction」快評，2026-08-14 世芯法說會後發布，非同一份報告隔日重發：標題、Key Takeaways、Exhibit 1（2Q26 實際數 vs 估／共識）皆為新內容；TP（NT$5,088）與 2026-28E EPS（162.51/181.22/218.27）與 8/13 preview 完全一致，屬「重申不調整」而非新估值。詳見公司頁「來源」區段判定說明。
PDF 原檔：報告_MS_世芯3661_20260814_original.pdf
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原始內容
M August 14, 2026 10:31 AM GMT
Alchip Technologies Ltd | Asia Pacific
Bullish tone on 2nm ASIC market size in 2028 and onwards; reiterate OW
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Strengthens our thesis
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- 2Q results beat MSe from higher margin but slightly missed consensus in terms of revenue.
- Reiterate OW: We think the share price may react positively on management comments on T4 revenue TAM and Google COT business.
Alchip hosted its 2Q26 earnings call on Aug 14th, key takeaways:
- 3nm ASIC of big customer: The company didn't raise its 2026 3nm ASIC revenue contribution (we estimate US$1.5bn-US$2.0bn) but expects significant growth in 2027.
- 2nm ASIC of big customer: The company reiterated it is the only design service provider for the major customer's 2nm design service. On 2nm TAM, the company thinks it is not too far from the 2nm Google TPU, for which ASIC vendor revenue could be US$80-100bn. If we assume the annual TAM for Alchip's 2nm ASIC is US$30bn and Alchip gets 30-40% allocation, that implies US$9-12bn annual revenue in 2028, above our current US$4bn assumption. We are not changing our 2028 estimate for now, as we are still investigating AWS Trainium4 volume and ASP in 2028. Alchip management didn't confirm the 2nm ASIC project allocation either.
- 2nd largest CSP customer project: Alchip believes its model fits CSPs' COT (customer-owned tooling) strategy, and if Google turns its TPU to COT, it is possible for Alchip to participate and help on some back-end design. We heard a similar comment from GUC's recent earnings call (engaging with Google's future TPU project) but we do not have clarity on who may get the project. We still believe MediaTek should be the major design service provider for Google TPU v10 IceFish given its partnership on TPUv8/v9.
Modest shortfall
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Alchip Technologies Ltd (3661.TW, 3661 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight | Overweight | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive | |||
| Price target | NT$5,088.00 | |||
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 21 | ||
| Shr price, close (Aug 14, 2026) | Shr price, close (Aug 14, 2026) | NT$4,210.00 | ||
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$5,640.00- | ||
| 2,480.00 | 2,480.00 | |||
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$341,614 | NT$341,614 | |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$7,942 | NT$7,942 | |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 67.68 | 162.51 | 181.22 | 218.27 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 65.78 | 138.09 | 180.95 | 240.97 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 30,926 | 92,826 | 134,592 | 165,265 |
| P/E | 51.9 | 25.9 | 23.2 | 19.3 |
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