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原始內容
M August 4, 2026 01:12 PM GMT
Vanguard International Semiconductor | Asia Pacific
Strong demand but limited by supply constraint; reiterate EW
| AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction | AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction | AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction |
|---|---|---|
| Unchanged | In-line | Largely unchanged Direction of next |
| Impact to our thesis | Financial results versus consensus | 12-month consensus EPS |
| Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research |
Key Takeaways
- AI-related revenue has reached a double-digit share of total revenue, and growth should be even stronger in 2027.
- AI demand includes interposer production in Singapore starting in 1Q27.
- Management is satisfied with its Singapore fab wafer sample out in June. Yield rate is above 99%.
- 2Q26 results came in largely in line with our estimate. 3Q26 utilization rate could reach above 90%.
- Stay EW: strong industry recovery is offset by supply constraints, potentially higher depreciation from the Singapore fab, and more expensive valuation vs. UMC.
Price hikes in 2027 should be larger than in 2026 with tighter supply/demand
dynamics: Management expects supply to be tighter in 2027 than in 2026, driven by AI, industrial demand recovery, and share gain in the consumer sector. 2027 pricing will reflect incremental production cost and depreciation from capacity expansion, with a larger adjustment than in 2026. The company continues to invest in both 8and 12-inch capacity to meet the strong demand.
3Q26 guidance lower than peer's given supply constraint: Management guided for 3Q26 wafer shipments up only 1-3% Q/Q owing to bottlenecks from a few tools, vs. UMC's high-single-digit Q/Q rise. However, Vanguard continues to lift wafer ASP by hiking prices and optimizing product mix, driving a 2-4% Q/Q ASP rise.
No concrete plan for Singapore fab phase 2 yet: Singapore fab phase 1's break-even point and ramp are ahead of schedule, and its 44kwpm capacity is fully booked. However, the company currently doesn't have a concrete plan for phase 2 capacity expansion. It would like to focus on phase 1 ramp and execution.
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347.TWO, 5347 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Equal-weight | Equal-weight | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive | |||
| Price target | NT$180.00 | |||
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 17 | ||
| Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026) | Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026) | NT$154.50 | ||
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$223.00-87.60 | ||
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 1,858 | ||
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$287,124 | NT$287,124 | |
| EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | NT$264,578 | NT$264,578 | |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$2,808 | NT$2,808 | |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 4.18 | 5.46 | 6.76 | 8.32 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 4.32 | 5.71 | 6.93 | 8.98 |
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