PDF 原檔：報告_MS_上銀2049_20261006_original.pdf
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49KB | 真資料圖 | Hiwin 月營收 YoY（黃線，右軸）與股價（藍線，左軸 NT$）自 2015 至 2026 對照圖；2026 年股價約 330-400、月營收 YoY 約 30%；財務／股價類圖，不嵌公司頁 |
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57KB | 真資料圖 | 股價（藍線）與 PT 沿革（紅虛線階梯）圖，Oct 2023 至 Oct 2026；PT 標註 205、220、210、225、310、160、214、300、380、400、450；財務／股價類圖，不嵌公司頁 |
原始內容
M Update October 6, 2026 11:47 AM GMT
Hiwin Technologies Corp. | Asia Pacific
September Sales Flat MoM/ +30% YoY
In this report, we focus on Hiwin's monthl sales, which we believe could be a catal st for its share price.
Details:
- September sales were NT$2,720mn (flat MoM/+30% YoY)
- 3Q26 revenue came in at NT$8,110mn (+8% QoQ/+35% YoY), largely in line with our estimate at NT$7,996mn (+6% QoQ/+33% YoY) and the consensus of NT$7,964mn (+6% QoQ/+33% YoY)
Our view:
- On top of the sequential growth on the top line, we believe that Hiwin should also further expand its gross margin on a QoQ basis in 3Q26, owing to the higher utilization and the tailwinds of price hikes
- We think the momentum should remain favorable in the near term
- We stay constructive on the stock, with current valuation at 29x 2027e P/E vs a peak cycle level of 35-40x
Exhibit 1: Hiwin's monthly sales YoY vs. its share price since 2015
Source: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. esults shown do not include transaction costs. Source: Company data, TEJ, Morgan Stanley esearch.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
| Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang esearch Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Hiwin Technologies Corp.(2049.TW, 2049 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry iew | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$450.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 33 |
| Shr price close (Oct 6 2026) | NT$339.50 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$426.00-180.50 |
| Sh out dil curr (mn) | 354 |
| Mkt cap curr (mn) | US$3 787 |
| EV curr (mn) | US$3 776 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | US$45 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 4.31 | 9.77 | 11.77 | 13.77 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| Revenue net (NT$ mn) | 24 263 | 29 992 | 34 688 | 39 123 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 4 001 | 6 485 | 7 488 | 8 431 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 1 526 | 3 457 | 4 165 | 4 873 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 45.0 | 34.7 | 28.8 | 24.6 |
| P/BV | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| RNOA (%) | 3.6 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 12.7 |
| ROE (%) | 4.1 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6 | 17.9 | 15.3 | 13.3 |
| Div yld (%) | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 2.0 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
Unless otherwise noted all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction
| Company / Catalyst | Date | Impact to thesis | Catalyst versus expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. | 2049.TW | ||
| September 2026 Sales | 06 Oct 2026 | Unchanged | In-line |
Source:Company data Morgan Stanley Research M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)
Base case, P/E We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle We apply a target multiple of 38x to our 2027 EPS estimate We view this multiple as justified by the 47% operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger industrial automation demand pickup
- nMarket share gains
- n Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids
Risks to Downside
- nWeaker industrial automation demand
- nMore pricing pressure
- nMarket share loss
- nMore broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks
M Update
Disclosure ection
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