報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722

PDF 原檔：報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-22）

檔名	size	分類	親眼所見內容
`報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722_001.png`	40KB	真資料圖	Price Performance 圖：2454.TW 股價（藍線）vs. TSE rebased（灰線），Oct-25 至 Jul-26
`報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722_003.png`	52KB	真資料圖	Figure 1: MediaTek Quarterly revenue（藍柱）與 QoQ%（灰線），1Q23-4Q28E
`報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722_004.png`	46KB	真資料圖	Figure 3: MediaTek Gross profit（藍柱）與 GM%（灰線）季度圖，1Q25-4Q28E
`報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722_005.png`	42KB	真資料圖	Figure 2: MediaTek Annual revenue（藍柱）與 YoY%（灰線），2018-2028E
`報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722_006.png`	41KB	真資料圖	Figure 4: MediaTek Gross profit（藍柱）與 GM%（灰線）年度圖，2018-2028E
`報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722_015.png`	76KB	真資料圖	MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW) Price Chart：股價走勢圖疊加歷次評等/目標價變動標籤（N NT$750 至最新 OW NT$3,400、V NT$5,300），Sep-23 至 Jul-26

002（23KB）、007-014（23-32KB）均 <40KB 未 Read，預設 logo/裝飾（含 Style Exposure、smartphone/segment breakdown 等小圖）。

原始內容

Quant

Factors

Value

J.P.Morgan

Growth

Current

%Rank

Hist %Rank (1=Top)

Momentum

Quality

Low Vol

ESGQ

J P M O R G A N 19 12 8

MediaTek Inc.

2Q Preview: Stronger ASIC, weaker smartphones, street EPS ests likely moving higher; OW

We expect MediaTek's tone in its upcoming 2Q26 earnings call (Jul 31) to be quite upbeat on ASIC, while being incrementally more guarded on near-term smartphone demand. We believe that ASIC revenues in 2027 (from TPU v8t Zebrafish) should see upside, given better supply conditions for substrate and CoWoS-wafers, while confidence in the ramp of TPUv9 Humufish is also likely to strengthen. MediaTek is likely to mention new customer engagements (likely SpaceX in our view) as well as continuation of its engagement with Google in TPU v10 projects. Smartphone demand remains challenging, and guidance for smartphones is likely to remain sub-seasonal in 3Q26, with some pressure on Gross Margins. We raise our 2028 EPS by 20% to reflect stronger TPUv9 prospects and stay OW with a Jun-27 PT of NT$5300 (10x 12M fwd core earnings + 33x 12M fwd ASIC-related earnings).

Stronger TPUv8 Zebrafish ramp in 2027, supply still the main constraint: We expect the company to reiterate its AI ASIC revenue outlook of US$2bn for 2026 on the upcoming earnings call (JPMe: US$2.2bn based on ~500k TPU v8t unit shipments in 2026), as TPU v8t remains on track for a volume ramp in 4Q26. We do not see meaningful upside to 2026 ASIC revenue, given ongoing supply constraints-particularly in key components such as substrateswhich should cap TPU shipments this year. However, we have revised up our 2027 MediaTek ASIC revenue estimate by 20% (JPMe: ~3.0mn v8t shipments vs. 2.5mn previously), driven by stronger TPU v8t demand, but believe risk remains on the upside if the supply tightness (particularly substrate and front end wafer) further improves. We expect MediaTek to guide at the high end of its prior range ($7-12bn) for 2027 ASIC revenues.
TPUv9 confidence likely higher, given better competitive positioning and smoother progress on Intel EMIB-T: We raise our TPU v9 ('Humufish') revenue estimate to US$36bn in 2028 (from US$25bn), driven by a higher shipment expectation of ~3mn units (vs. ~2mn previously). We believe TPU v9 remains on track to tape out in late 2026, and the key competing project ('Pumafish' from a U.S. fabless vendor) appears to have been canceled or delayed, which should further strengthen MediaTek's position as the lead ASIC vendor for TPU v9. We also attribute the upward revision to smoother progress on Intel EMIB-T, the primary packaging solution for TPU v9. Based on our checks, while EMIB-T substrate yield for large-format packaging is still ~60%+ at present, we believe the risk of a meaningful execution setback remains low, given the ~1.5-year runway to further improve yields ahead of the planned production ramp in late 2027. Substrate capacity additions are also progressing well for this project, based on our checks.
TPUv10 in bidding stage, good chance for MediaTek to emerge as the major player: We believe TPU v10 is currently in the bidding stage, with a final decision expected in the next couple of months. Our checks indicate a high chance of MediaTek winning the larger share of TPUv10, also substantiated by the trend that Google will continue moving toward a semi-CoT model over time. Based on our checks, key IPs (e.g. SerDes and die to die interconnect) for v10 will still come from MediaTek. Though value-add per chip may grow only

Sources for: Style Exposure - J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 12 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

GLYPH<c=29,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>KLVGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>GRFXPHQWGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>LVGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>EHLQ-GLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>SURYLGHGGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>IRUGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>WKHGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>HZFOXVLYHGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>XVHGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>RIGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>4HOVRQGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>"HKGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>DWGLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>GLYPH<c=15,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>GLYPH<c=13,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>9GLYPH<c=29,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>96804.GLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>04GLYPH<c=31,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>GLYPH<c=15,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>9GLYPH<c=29,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>3GLYPH<c=15,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>4GLYPH<c=29,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>9GLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>GLYPH<c=2,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>GLYPH<c=1,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>GLYPH<c=29,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>GLYPH<c=13,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>0 GLYPH<c=13,font=/AAAAAN+font000000003010329e>4

Overweight

2454.TW, 2454 TT Price (21 Jul 26):NT$3,670.00

Price Target (Jun-27):NT$5,300.00

Technology and Telecoms

Gokul Hariharan AC

(852) 2800-8564

gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Jennifer Hsieh

(886-2) 2725-9868

jennifer.hsieh@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

David Chou

(886-2) 2725-9618

david.chou@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Jason Chen

(886-2) 2725-9864

jason.bh.chen@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Subham Singhania

(91-22) 6157-3801

subham.singhania@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Key Changes (FYE Dec)	Key Changes (FYE Dec)	Key Changes (FYE Dec)	Key Changes (FYE Dec)
	Prev	Cur	Δ
Adj. EPS - 27E (NT$)	116.51	128.04	9.9%

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)	Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)	Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)	Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)
Adj. EPS (NT$)	2025A	2026E	2027E
Q1	18.31	15.07A	25.70
Q2	17.39	14.20	31.01
Q3	15.72	14.83	37.28
Q4	14.29	25.95	34.05
FY	65.71	70.05	128.04

Style Exposure

Price Pertormance

Perrormance Drivers

Market

Region

J.P.Morgan

NT$

Macro

Style

Idiosyn.

Oct 25

Factors

Market: MSCI Asia Pac ex JP

Region: Taiwan

Macro:

Markit EM Composite PMI SA

Emerging Central Bank Rate

Generic 1st 'CO' Future

Quant Styles:

Size

Growth

Momentum

Apr 26

6M Corr

0.72

0.24

-0.24

0.16

44%

41%

1Y Corr

Jul 26

0.21

0.20

-0.19

YTD

156.6%

103.9%

-16.4%

-11.6%

75.6%

58.0%

12m

157.5%

68.0%

Abs

Rel

Company Data

Shares O/S (mn)	1,599
52-week range (NT$)	4,970.00-1,130.00
Market cap ($ mn)	181,822
Exchange rate	32.27
Free float (%)	86.2%
3M ADV (mn)	13.56
3M ADV ($ mn)	1,544.5
Volatility (90 Day)	78
Index	TAIEX
BBG ANR (Buy \| Hold \| Sell)	29\|2\|0

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

NT$ in millions	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E
Financial Estimates
Revenue	595,966	683,062	1,044,079	1,991,105
Adj. EBIT	103,470	109,001	216,566	489,694
Adj. EBITDA	116,806	123,036	231,870	506,345
Adj. net income	105,319	112,360	205,368	445,708
Adj. EPS	65.71	70.05	128.04	277.89
BBG EPS	66.45	66.03	127.68	251.99
Cashflow from operations	141,195	3,464	215,576	199,805
FCFF	115,710	(14,163)	198,373	181,670
Margins and Growth
Revenue Growth Y/Y (%)	12.3%	14.6%	52.9%	90.7%
EBIT margin	17.4%	16.0%	20.7%	24.6%
EBIT Growth Y/Y (%)	1.0%	5.3%	98.7%	126.1%
EBITDA margin	19.6%	18.0%	22.2%	25.4%
EBITDA Growth Y/Y (%)	1.6%	5.3%	88.5%	118.4%
Net margin	17.7%	16.4%	19.7%	22.4%
Adj. EPS growth	(1.1%)	6.6%	82.8%	117.0%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate	15.0%	11.4%	12.4%	12.3%
Interest cover	NM	NM	NM	NM
Net debt/Equity	NM	NM	NM	NM
Net debt/EBITDA	NM	NM	NM	NM
ROE	26.4%	26.9%	41.7%	64.6%
Valuation
FCFF yield	2.0%	(0.2%)	3.4%	3.1%
Dividend yield	1.5%	1.4%	1.5%	2.8%
EV/Revenue	9.7	8.3	5.4	2.9
EV/EBITDA	49.6	46.3	24.5	11.3
Adj. P/E	55.9	52.4	28.7	13.2

Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation Investment Thesis

We are Overweight on MediaTek, given ASIC revenues in 2027 (from TPU v8t Zebrafish) likely to see upside, despite a more guarded view on near-term smartphone demand. On ASIC, we see a better supply conditions for substrates and CoWoS-wafers, with increasing confidence in TPUv9 Humufish ramp. We also expect MediaTek to mention new customer engagements (likely SpaceX in our view) and continuation of its engagement with Google in TPU v10 projects. On a more cautious note, we believe smartphone demand will remain sluggish, coming along with sub-seasonal 3Q26. With rising costs from substrates, OSATs and foundries, we see near-term pressure on the company's Gross Margins.

Valuation

Our Jun-27 PT of NT$5300 is based on a SoTP valuation (10x 12M fwd core earnings + 33x 12M fwd ASIC-related earnings, reflecting sluggish smartphone demand and the recent correction in market sentiments), reflecting stronger growth in 2028 for TPU v9 Humufish.

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be complete or exact.

Jan 26

slightly versus v9, we believe MediaTek could capture a higher share of overall volumes, still creating meaningful revenue upside relative to v9.
New customer win likely in 3Q26 - we believe SpaceX most likely: We believe MediaTek is engaging with multiple customers on AI projects, and see a potential new customer win in 3Q26, with SpaceX standing the highest chance. While revenue contribution would likely take until at least 2028, we believe any customer win could be a positive catalyst for the share price, given the diversification of its customer base and validation of its design service capabilities.
Move to CoT is a positive for MediaTek in the interim; customer and product diversification key to preserving margins: We believe the industry trend toward Customer Owned Tooling (CoT) is a near- to medium-term positive for MediaTek, as CSPs seek lower-cost alternatives to turnkey vendors. Based on our checks, TPU v10 appears to lean further towards a CoT model than v9. Growth momentum for MediaTek from Google's ASIC programs should persist through at least 2029-30, in our view. Beyond that horizon, we would need to reassess how CoT adoption is progressing and whether it structurally shifts economics across the value chain. In the meantime, MediaTek's ability to diversify across customers and product types will be critical to preserving margins. We view its investments in custom HBM integration, CPO, high-speed interconnect, and rack-scale design as important steps to broaden its competitive moat beyond pure design services-positioning the company to capture more value per program and reduce dependency on any single CSP relationship.
Smartphone outlook weaker, cost hikes impacting near-term gross margins: Given lukewarm consumer demand and the continued impact of memory price hikes, we believe smartphone demand is likely to remain challenging, with the outlook appearing slightly weaker than expected in the coming quarters. We forecast MediaTek's smartphone chip shipments to decline 28% YoY in 2026. While the company is currently negotiating price increases across its core businesses (JPMe 5-10% on average), with more meaningful pass-through expected from 4Q26 into early 2027, we believe rising costs from OSATs, substrates, and foundries will likely pressure near-term gross margins. We therefore expect MediaTek's 2026 gross margins to reach only ~45% (down 2.1ppts YoY).

Table 1: MediaTek: SoTP Valuation

NT$/x

NT$ / x	2027E	2028E
Core business
Core earnings per share	58	59
Core PE multiple		10x
Core business value per share		584
DC ASIC business
DC ASIC earnings per share	70	219
DC ASIC PE multiple		33x
DC ASIC business value per share		4716
MediaTek Jun-27 SoTP		5,300

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 2: MediaTek: DC ASIC Key Assumptions

	2026E	2027E	2028E
ASIC Revenue (USUS$mnn)	2,239	12,887	41,776
TPU v8 Zebrafish
Units (mn)	0.5	3.0	1.5
ASP (US$)	4,250	4,250	3,750
Revenue (US$mn)	2,125	12,750	5,625
TPU v9 Humufish
Units (mn)	-	-	3.0
ASP(US$)	-	-	12,000
Revenue (US$mn)	-	-	36,000
Other Enterprise ASIC
Revenue (US$mn)	114	137	151

Key charts

Figure 1: MediaTek - Quarterly revenue and qoq

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 3: MediaTek - Gross profit and GM (quarterly)

NT$ in billions, %

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 2: MediaTek - Annual revenue and yoy

NT$ in billions, %

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 4: MediaTek - Gross profit and GM (annual)

NT$ in billions, %

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 5: MediaTek - Smartphone shipment breakdown

Units in millions

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 7: MediaTek - Revenue by segment

NT$ in billions

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

J P M O R G A N

Figure 6: MediaTek - Smartphone revenue breakdown

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 8: MediaTek - Revenue mix by segment

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Estimate revisions

Table 3: MediaTek - Quarterly estimate revisions

	Revised	Revised	Revised	Prior	Prior	Prior	Change (%)	Change (%)	Change (%)
NT$ million	2Q26E	3Q26E	4Q26E	2Q26E	3Q26E	4Q26E	2Q26E	3Q26E	4Q26E
Revenues	152,183	156,635	225,094	145,877	151,478	222,462	4%	3%	1%
Gross profit	69,881	71,358	99,985	66,940	68,948	99,025	4%	3%	1%
GM (%)	45.9%	45.6%	44.4%	45.9%	45.5%	44.5%	3bps	4bps	-9bps
Operating profit	22,276	22,130	41,705	21,280	21,302	41,462	5%	4%	1%
OPM (%)	14.6%	14.1%	18.5%	14.6%	14.1%	18.6%	5bps	7bps	-11bps
Net profit	22,782	23,789	41,616	21,936	23,129	41,380	4%	3%	1%
EPS (NT$)	14.20	14.83	25.95	13.68	14.42	25.80	4%	3%	1%
Smartphone Shipment (mn units)	87	84	80	84	84	84	3%	0%	-5%
4G	46	44	41	45	44	43	2%	-1%	-4%
5G	41	40	39	39	40	41	3%	1%	-6%
Smartphone ASP (US$)	24.7	26.4	29.5	24.8	26.2	28.8	0%	1%	2%
Mobile revenue	68,079	70,454	75,133	66,332	69,918	77,065	3%	1%	-3%
Smart Edge revenue	75,959	77,489	140,817	71,400	72,868	136,254	6%	6%	3%
Power IC revenue	7,910	8,444	8,897	7,910	8,444	8,897	0%	0%	0%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 4: MediaTek - Annual estimate revisions

	Revised	Revised	Revised	Prior	Prior	Prior	Change (%)	Change (%)	Change (%)
NT$ million	2026E	2027E	2028E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2026E	2027E	2028E
Revenues	683,062	1,044,079	1,991,105	668,967	971,066	1,604,882	2%	8%	24%
Gross profit	310,279	468,893	843,278	303,969	433,905	670,261	2%	8%	26%
GM (%)	45.4%	44.9%	42.4%	45.4%	44.7%	41.8%	-1bps	23bps	59bps
Operating profit	109,001	216,566	489,694	106,935	195,272	404,763	2%	11%	21%
OPM (%)	16.0%	20.7%	24.6%	16.0%	20.1%	25.2%	-3bps	63bps	-63bps
Net profit	112,360	205,368	445,708	110,618	186,875	371,239	2%	10%	20%
EPS (NT$)	70.05	128.04	277.89	68.97	116.51	231.46	2%	10%	20%
Smartphone Shipment (mn units)	345	306	294	347	322	311	-1%	-5%	-5%
4G	180	153	137	181	159	142	-1%	-4%	-4%
5G	165	153	157	166	163	168	-1%	-6%	-7%
Smartphone ASP (US$)	26.1	30.3	33.1	26.0	29.7	32.9	1%	2%	1%
Mobile revenue	287,050	295,044	308,423	286,698	302,691	323,141	0%	-3%	-5%
Smart Edge revenue	362,129	711,748	1,641,792	348,385	631,088	1,240,851	4%	13%	32%
Power IC revenue	32,932	36,238	39,734	32,932	36,238	39,734	0%	0%	0%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 9: MediaTek - 12-month forward P/E

NT$, x

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 11: MediaTek - 12-month forward P/BV

NT$, x

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

P/E and P/BV charts

Figure 10: MediaTek - 12-month trailing P/E

NT$, x

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 12: MediaTek - 12-month trailing P/BV

NT$, x

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Sequential Growth (%) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net profit New Taiwan GAAP EPS	Margins (%) Gross margin Operating margin Pre-tax margin New Taiwan GAAP net margin	Revenue Breakdown (%) Mobile Smart Edge PMIC Others	ASP (US$) Feature Phone Smartphone 4G 5G Total Handset Chromebook/Tablet	New Taiwan GAAP EPS Shipment units (millions) Feature Phone Smartphone 4G 5G Total Handset Chromebook/Tablet	Revenue COGS Gross profit R&D expenses Operating income Pre-tax profit Net profit (Reported) (NT$)	NT$ millions, year-end Dec.
11 -2 -6 10 0 -11 40 -2 -24 23 -5 -9 23 -5 -10	48.1 49.1 19.6 19.5 22.5 22.1 19.1 18.5	56% 52% 53% 39% 43% 42% 5% 6% 5% 0% 0% 0%	1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 20.0 20.7 21.9 24.2 24.4 24.7 26.4 29.5 28.9 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.5 35.8 37.0 39.9 43.2 42.7 44.4 47.2 53.0 51.8 17.8 18.3 19.3 21.5 21.2 21.3 22.9 25.7 25.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 9.0 9.0 10.0 10.0 11.0	18 17 16 16 15 129 121 113 117 94 71 66 62 62 49 58 55 51 55 46 147 138 129 132 109 15 17 16 15 17	1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 153,312 150,369 142,097 150,188 149,151 152,183 156,635 225,094 218,820 251,095 300,440 273,724 79,503 76,491 75,985 80,907 80,095 82,302 85,276 125,109 120,023 138,243 166,166 150,753 73,809 73,878 66,112 69,281 69,055 69,881 71,358 99,985 98,797 112,851 134,273 122,972 35,782 36,923 36,353 39,248 38,345 39,541 40,890 48,409 46,243 49,010 58,709 55,626 30,053 29,379 22,188 21,850 22,891 22,276 22,130 41,705 43,123 53,847 63,593 56,003 34,553 33,228 29,960 27,147 27,019 26,803 27,033 46,240 47,388 58,508 67,946 60,685 29,325 27,848 25,221 22,925 24,172 22,782 23,789 41,616 41,228 49,732 59,792 54,616 18.3 17.4 15.7 14.3 15.1 14.2 14.8 25.9 25.7 31.0 37.3 34.1	2025 2026E 2027E
	46.5 15.6 21.1 17.7
6 5 -2 -9 -9	46.1 14.5 18.1 15.3	59% 37% 4% 0%
-1 0 5 5 5	46.3 15.3 18.1 16.2	49% 46% 5% 0%
2 1 -3 -6 -6	45.9 14.6 17.6 15.0	45% 50% 5% 0%		15 87 46 41 101 16
3 2 -1 4 4	45.6 14.1 17.3 15.2	45% 49% 5% 0%		14 84 44 40 97 14
44 40 88 75 75	44.4 18.5 20.5 18.5	33% 63% 4% 0%		12 80 41 39 93 13
-3 -1 3 -1 -1	45.1 19.7 21.7 18.8	32% 64% 4% 0%		12 76 39 37 88 12
15 14 25 21 21	44.9 21.4 23.3 19.8	28% 68% 4% 0%	1.2 29.2 7.4 51.4 25.4 11.0	12 76 39 38 88 12
20 19 18 20 20	44.7 21.2 22.6 19.9	25% 72% 3% 0%	1.2 30.3 7.4 52.1 26.5 11.0	12 77 38 40 89 12
-9 -8 -12 -9 -9	44.9 20.5 22.2 20.0	29% 67% 4% 0%	1.2 32.9 7.4 57.1 28.9 11.0	11 76 37 39 87 12
44 38 72 62 62	43.1 24.4 25.8 22.4	19% 79% 2% 0%	1.2 32.3 7.4 56.2 28.2 11.0	11 72 35 37 83 11	1QE 394,405 224,403 170,003 61,242 96,271 101,713 88,490 55.2
18 16 20 14 14	42.7 25.0 25.7 21.8	16% 82% 2% 0%	1.2 32.3 7.3 54.9 28.4 11.0	11 73 34 38 83 11	464,344 266,293 198,051 68,241 115,895 119,120 101,252 63.1	2QE 2028E
8 7 1 7 7	42.3 23.3 24.4 21.5	16% 82% 2% 0%	1.2 32.9 7.3 53.7 29.1 11.0	10 75 34 42 86 11	3QE 502,749 290,229 212,520 79,114 117,272 122,781 108,048 67.4
25 24 37 37 37	41.7 25.5 26.1 23.5	13% 85% 2% 0%	1.2 34.6 7.3 56.7 30.6 11.0	10 74 33 41 84 11	4QE 629,607 366,903 262,704 85,095 160,256 164,353 147,918 92.2
12 7 1 -1 -1	47.5 17.4 21.0 17.7	0% 0% 0% 0%	1.2 21.7 7.3 38.9 19.2 8.1	66 480 262 218 546 63	2025 595,966 312,886 283,080 148,306 103,470 124,888 105,319 65.7
15 10 5 7 7	45.4 16.0 18.6 16.4	0% 0% 0% 0%	1.2 26.1 7.3 46.6 22.7 9.5	55 345 180 165 400 60	2026E 683,062 372,783 310,279 167,185 109,001 127,096 112,360 70.1
53 51 99 83 83	44.9 20.7 22.5 19.7	0% 0% 0% 0%	1.2 30.3 7.4 53.1 26.5 11.0	47 306 153 153 353 47	2027E 1,044,079 575,186 468,893 209,588 216,566 234,527 205,368 128.0
91 80 126 117 117	42.4 24.6 25.5 22.4	0% 0% 0% 0%	1.2 33.1 7.3 55.4 29.1 11.0	42 294 137 157 336 43	1,991,105 1,147,827 843,278 293,693 489,694 507,967 445,708 277.9	2028E

Table 5: MediaTek - Financials

Gokul Hariharan AC (852) 2800-8564 gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

J P M O R G A N

Gokul Hariharan AC (852) 2800-8564 gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 July 2026

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

MediaTek Inc. (Overweight; Price Target: NT$5,300.00)

Investment Thesis

Valuation

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key downside risks include: (1) further pressure on Smartphone SoC GMs due to cost escalations and increased competition; and (2) slower progress on the NVDA partnership, given NVDA's expanded engagement with Intel and other chip makers.

Gokul Hariharan AC (852) 2800-8564 gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

MediaTek Inc.: Summary of Financials

Income Statement - Annual	FY23A	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E	Income Statement - Quarterly	1Q26A	2Q26E	3Q26E	4Q26E
Revenue	433,446	530,586	595,966		683,0621,044,079	Revenue	149,151	152,183	156,635	225,094
COGS		(226,079)(267,200)(312,886)(372,783)(575,186)		310,279		COGS	(80,095) 69,055	(82,302) 69,881	(85,276) 71,358	(125,109) 99,985
Gross profit SG&A	207,367 (24,183)	263,386 (28,981)	283,080	(34,093)	468,893 (42,740)	Gross profit SG&A	(7,819)	(8,063)	(8,338)	(9,872)
Adj. EBITDA	82,801	114,972	(31,304) 116,806	123,036	231,870	Adj. EBITDA	26,239	25,805	25,690	45,301
D&A	(11,001)	(12,560)	(13,336)	(14,035)	(15,304)	D&A	(3,349)	(3,529)	(3,560)	(3,597)
Adj. EBIT	71,800	102,412	103,470	109,001	216,566	Adj. EBIT	22,891	22,276	22,130	41,705
Net Interest	6,908	10,696	10,167	8,599	7,724	Net Interest	2,311	1,968	2,344	1,976
Adj. PBT	86,782	119,519	124,888	127,096	234,527	Adj. PBT	27,019	26,803	27,033	46,240
Tax	(9,591)	(12,378)	(18,770)	(14,531)	(29,159)		(2,643)	(4,020)	(3,244)	(4,624)
Minority	(212)			(204)	0	Tax	(204)		0	0
Interest		(754)	(798)	112,360		Minority Interest		0
Adj. Net Income	76,979	106,386	105,319		205,368 128.04	Adj. Net Income	24,172	22,782 14.20	23,789	41,616
Reported EPS	48.12	66.47	65.71	70.05		Reported EPS	15.07		14.83	25.95
Adj. EPS	48.12	66.47	65.71	70.05	128.04	Adj. EPS	15.07	14.20	14.83	25.95
DPS	76.00	54.97	53.96	53.19	56.74
Payout ratio Shares outstanding	102.9% 1,600	114.2% 1,601	81.2% 1,603	80.9% 1,604	81.0% 1,604	Shares outstanding	1,604	1,604	1,604	1,604
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement	FY23A	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E	Ratio Analysis	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E
Cash and cash equivalents	180,673	219,624	247,709	170,979	279,104	Gross margin	49.6%	47.5%	45.4%	44.9%
Accounts receivable	60,641	51,770	68,597	125,806	152,986	EBITDA margin	21.7%	19.6%	18.0%	22.2%
Inventories	43,220	58,414	67,235	144,058	138,069	EBIT margin	19.3%	17.4%	16.0%	20.7%
Other current assets	6,354	21,217	13,916	12,737	12,737	Net margin			16.4%	19.7%
Current assets	290,889	351,025	397,456	453,581	582,896	profit	20.1%	17.7%
PP&E	53,291 152,228	56,917	60,427	56,404	51,539	ROE ROA	27.8%	26.4% 14.6%	26.9% 14.4%	41.7% 23.4%
LT investments Other non current assets	138,631	172,525 117,400	171,501 114,400	179,413 122,588	185,413 122,588	ROCE	16.0% 23.3%		21.9%	35.9%
								21.4%
Total assets	635,038	697,868	743,785	811,985	942,436	SG&A/Sales	5.5%	5.3%	5.0%	4.1%
Short term borrowings	7,826	8,919	4,481	28,691		Net debt/equity	NM	NM	NM	NM
Payables	38,779	40,777	48,710	77,235 231,557	28,691 93,330	P/E (x)	55.2 14.8	55.9 14.7	52.4	28.7 10.7
Other short term liabilities	185,394	217,207	250,159		231,557 353,578	P/BV (x)	50.1	49.6	13.5
Current liabilities	231,999	266,902	303,350	337,483		EV/EBITDA (x)			46.3	24.5
Long-term debt	4,605	2,681	6,795 24,444	6,305 24,217	6,305 24,217	Dividend Yield	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%	1.5%
Other long term liabilities Total liabilities	24,229 260,833	23,228 292,812	334,590	368,005	550,170 8,167	Sales/Assets (x)	0.8	0.8	0.9	1.2
Shareholders'	368,206	396,627	400,601	435,814	384,100	Interest cover (x)	NM	NM	NM	NM
equity Minority interests	6,000	8,428	8,594	8,167		Operating leverage	190.2%	8.4%	36.6%	186.7%
Total liabilities & equity BVPS	635,038 230.18	697,868 247.95	743,785 250.12	811,985 271.72	942,436 343.02	Revenue y/y Growth EBITDA y/y Growth	22.4% 38.9%	12.3% 1.6%	14.6% 5.3%	52.9% 88.5%
y/y Growth		7.7%	0.9%	8.6%	26.2%		10.4%	15.0%		12.4%
	(16.3%)					Tax rate			11.4%
Net debt/(cash)					(168,242)(208,023)(236,433)(135,984)(244,109)	Adj. Net Income y/y Growth	38.2%	(1.0%)	6.7%	82.8%
Cash flow from operating activities	199,780	131,571	141,195	3,464 14,035	215,576 15,304	EPS y/y Growth	38.1%	(1.1%)	6.6%	82.8% 6.7%
o/w Depreciation & amortization o/w Changes in working capital	11,001	12,560				DPS y/y Growth	(27.7%)
	111,800	12,624	13,336 22,540(122,931)		(5,096)			(1.8%)	(1.4%)
Cash flow from investing activities	(44,405)	(15,253)			(16,439)
			(12,822)	(26,111)
o/w Capital expenditure	(10,431)	(16,186)	(16,846)	(10,011)	(10,439)
as % of sales	2.4%	3.1%	2.8%	1.5%	1.0% (91,012)
Cash flow from financing activities o/w Dividends paid	(139,511) (121,574)	(77,368)(100,288)	(86,491)	(54,083) (88,877)	(91,012)
o/w Net debt issued/(repaid)		(87,979) (1,831)	892	23,492	-
Net change in cash	6,321 15,864	38,951	28,085	(76,730)	108,125
Adj. Free cash flow to firm	183,204	105,796	115,710	(14,163)	198,373
y/y Growth	85.0%
		(42.3%)	9.4%		(112.2%)(1500.6%)

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Note: NT$ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which

request.

MediaTek Inc. (2454. TW, 2454 TT) Price Chart

J.P.Morgan

[NNTS750] NNTS1,050 | NTS1,150]

N NT$1,275

N NTS780 N NTS880

N NTS1,050 ITS1,180

5k NNTS730 N NT$800 N NTS 1,060

N NTS1,300

N NTS1,175

Price(NT$)

N NT$1,350

May

Sep

Jan

Sep

Jan

Sep

Jan

May

N NT$1,260

OW NT$3,400

30-

17.

N NT$1,600

29.

N NT$1,525 V NT$5,300 05-

01-

11.

28.

29.

01.

22.

31-

05.

27-

16.

25.

Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an 'AC' on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an 'AC' on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the Research Analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the Research Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that the Research Analyst's analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst's own opinion, without undue influence or intervention.

All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.

報告_JPM_聯發科2454_20260722

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-22）

原始內容

J P M O R G A N 19 12 8

MediaTek Inc.

Overweight

Technology and Telecoms

Gokul Hariharan AC

Jennifer Hsieh

David Chou

Jason Chen

Subham Singhania

Style Exposure

Company Data

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation Investment Thesis

Valuation

Key charts

J P M O R G A N

Estimate revisions

P/E and P/BV charts

Table 5: MediaTek - Financials

J P M O R G A N

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

MediaTek Inc. (Overweight; Price Target: NT$5,300.00)

Investment Thesis

Valuation

Risks to Rating and Price Target

MediaTek Inc.: Summary of Financials

被誰引用