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報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723

更新 2026-07-24

PDF 原檔:報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-24)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_005.png 62KB 真資料圖 股價走勢圖 + 評等/目標價沿革標註(OW NT$259→NT$734,Sep-23–Jul-26)
報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_004.png 54KB 真資料圖 Table 3:I/S Highlights Annual Revised vs Previous(Revenue/GM/OPM/Net Margin/EPS,FY25-27E,Revised 對比 Previous 與差異 bps/%)
報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_003.png 26KB 真資料圖 Figure 1:ABF ASP(per ABF area size)長條圖,Unimicron/NYPCB/Kinsus,2018–2027e(Unimicron 2018=1 為基準),標註「Meaningful upside ahead for Unimicron」
報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_002.png 24KB 真資料圖 Performance Drivers 長條圖:Market 16%/Region 10%/Macro 15%/Style 2%/Idiosyncratic 58%
報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_001.png 31KB 真資料圖 Price Performance:欣興股價 vs 大盤 rebased 走勢圖(Oct-25–Jul-26)

原始內容

Quant

Factors

Value

J.P.Morgan

Growth

Current

%Rank

84

Hist %Rank (1=Top)

6M

1Y

3Y

75

53

41

21

76

Momentum

Quality

Low Vol

ESGQ

6

81

91

23

19

84

80

25

45

78

87

59

78

5Y

76

15

14

36

73

J P M O R G A N 94 88

Unimicron

We are 25% above consensus in 2027, but still see substantial upside

  • Looking beyond like-for-like price hikes. For months, investors have focused on the chatter of price hikes which adjust prices for ongoing products. We believe that going forward, seeking price adjustments for ongoing products won't be the priority for Unimicron, which will instead focus on securing/ solidifying market share for new leading edge substrate projects, which are entering new realms in terms of size and layer counts. Keep in mind, such an approach could allow Unimicron to out-grow its peers which are typically more vocal on price hikes, as the unit area ASPs for these new products are rising even faster than periodical adjustments of like-for-like pricing, due to the rapidly rising specs that can be met by a very limited number of suppliers. We expect per unit area ASP to at least match that for 2022 (the peak of the last cycle; during which super-hot run fees were more common) with potential upside of 30% or even more vs. our updated assumptions, which already result in 25% higher earnings for 2027 vs. consensus.
  • 2Q preview/3Q outlook. Meanwhile we expect Unimicron to deliver close to 24% GM (3ppt above consensus/previous JPMe) in 2Q, on better than expect rev scale (up 15% qoq vs our previous expectation of 7%). We believe substrate and optical transceiver HDIs picked up throughout the quarters (while AI HDI likely saw some product transition impacts in later 2Q). For 3Q we expect another double-digit rev growth of 17% q-o-q, with GM returning to the 30% level in 3Q. In addition to the strong substrate demand growth, we also expect the company to secure more AI HDI shares in 3Q for the upcoming AI GPU server platforms on good yield performance. Furthermore, we also expect the company to enter the ASIC AI server HDI supply chain in the next 12-18 months. We are now 18% above consensus for 2026E EPS, mainly due to our stronger GM expansion.
  • Raising TP to NT$1,150 on higher 2027E EPS. Our TP is based on 27.5x PER on 2027E EPS, which we believe isn't undemanding given the increasingly critical roles Unimicron plays in several products (especially for ABF). We expect the main focus of the upcoming analyst meeting (on July 29) to be on future expansions such as KF2 and YM2/3 (we believe the company is finalizing its 5-year plan for advance capacity), LTA signing outlooks (we believe there will be more opportunities ahead; keep in mind LTAs do not bind the future sales prices), future technology roadmaps (glass core, EMIB-T, CoWoP; we believe all will result in higher value-adds) and status of upcoming major substrate projects (both GPUs and ASICs; we are positive). Shares are trading at a discounted valuation to its peers, as we believe its mix/margin improvement potential isn't well understood.

Sources for: Style Exposure - J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

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Overweight

3037.TW, 3037 TT Price (23 Jul 26):NT$896.00

▲Price Target (Dec-26):NT$1,150.00

Prior (Dec-26):NT$734.00

Technology

Jerry Tsai AC

(886-2) 2725-9867 jerry.tsai@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Josie Yu

(886-2) 2725-9877

josie.yu@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Gokul Hariharan

(852) 2800-8564

gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Key Changes (FYE Dec) Key Changes (FYE Dec) Key Changes (FYE Dec) Key Changes (FYE Dec)
Prev Cur Δ
Adj. EPS - 26E (NT$) 15.02 19.01 26.6%
Adj. EPS - 27E (NT$) 26.68 41.77 56.6%
Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)
Adj. EPS (NT$) 2025A 2026E 2027E
Q1 0.60 3.28A 8.57
Q2 0.02 3.31 10.19
Q3 1.44 5.39 11.29
Q4 2.32 6.98 11.72
FY 4.38 19.01 41.77

Style Exposure

Price Pertormance

Pertormance Drivers

1500

Market

Region

J.P.Morgan

16%

1000

NT$

• 10%

Macro

Style

500

Idiosyn.

Factors

Market: MSCI Asia Pac ex JP

15%

Oct 25

Region: Taiwan

Macro:

HSI Volatility Index

JPM China A-shares Sentiment

JPM Global Equity Sentiment

Quant Styles:

Growth

DivYld

Jan 26

Apr 26

6M Corr

0.45

0.33

— TSE (rebased)

-0.46

-0.34

0.19

58%

1Y Corr

Jul 26

-0.27

-0.26

0.23

報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_001
YTD 1m 3m 12m
307.3% -8.0% 23.1% 581.4%
252.4% -3.2% 4.2% 489.0%

Company Data

Shares O/S (mn) 1,525
52-week range (NT$) 1,130.00-127.51
Market cap ($ mn) 42,141
Exchange rate 32.43
Free float (%) 83.1%
3M ADV (mn) 27.73
3M ADV ($ mn) 789.8
Volatility (90 Day) 89
Index TAIEX
BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 22|1|0

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

NT$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E
Financial Estimates
Revenue 131,241 181,107 232,338
Adj. EBIT 6,674 34,648 84,652
Adj. EBITDA 25,447 54,677 108,652
Adj. net income 6,673 29,961 66,383
Adj. EPS 4.38 19.01 41.77
BBG EPS 3.49 16.14 33.42
Cashflow from operations 22,849 30,581 79,560
FCFF (797) (394) 77,060
Margins and Growth
Revenue Growth Y/Y (%) 13.8% 38.0% 28.3%
EBIT margin 5.1% 19.1% 36.4%
EBIT Growth Y/Y (%) 30.4% 419.1% 144.3%
EBITDA margin 19.4% 30.2% 46.8%
EBITDA Growth Y/Y (%) 13.9% 114.9% 98.7%
Net margin 5.1% 16.5% 28.6%
Adj. EPS growth 31.0% 334.2% 119.7%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate 14.5% 20.8% 22.4%
Interest cover NM NM NM
Net debt/Equity 0.0 NM NM
Net debt/EBITDA 0.1 NM NM
ROE 6.9% 25.5% 41.6%
Valuation
FCFF yield (0.1%) (0.0%) 5.4%
Dividend yield 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
EV/Revenue NM NM NM
EV/EBITDA NM NM NM
Adj. P/E 204.7 47.1 21.5

Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We are OW on Unimicron, given long-term positive ABF substrate demand growth and emerging technological convergence, which we think puts the company in a good position to leverage opportunities such as SLP, Rigid-flex PCBs, etc. For ABF, there is a strong content growth opportunity (~50100%) from rising layers/areas for HPC/AI/5G chips. The company has also been increasingly prudent regarding execution and capital spending, in our view.

Valuation

Our Dec-26 PT of NT$1,150 is based on an FY27E P/E of 27.5x , which is ~1.5 STD above the average multiple since 2018 (which excludes extremes). We believe this multiple is justified by the growth in key ASIC projects together with the GPU project ramp-up.

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be complete or exact.

報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_002

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J.P.Morgan

Figure 1: ABF ASP (per ABF area size) (Unimicron 2018 indexed as 1)

報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_003

Source: All data is based on J.P.Morgan estimates.

Table 1: Peer valuation

x; %

Company Ticker Price (LCY$) PE (x) PE (x) PE (x) PB (x) PB (x) PB (x) NI yoy (%) NI yoy (%) NI yoy (%) ROE (%) ROE (%) ROE (%)
2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E
Unimicron 3037 TT 896 205.4 47.1 21.5 13.6 10.6 7.7 31% 349% 122% 7% 26% 42%
Ibiden Co Ltd 4062 JP 18,075 79.2 62.8 48.9 9.2 8.1 7.1 89% 26% 36% 12% 14% 16%
Kinsus 3189 TT 785 235.2 75.1 31.6 11.0 9.3 7.6 3020% 270% 134% 4% 13% 24%
Nan Ya Printed 8046 TT 1,230 469.5 78.0 30.7 17.4 14.5 11.4 753% 497% 150% 4% 20% 39%
Samsung Electro 009150 KS 1,470,000 156.4 72.4 34.4 12.3 10.8 8.5 3% 116% 110% 8% 15% 26%
Lg Innotek Co Lt 011070 KS 686,000 47.6 15.8 14.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 -24% 201% 13% 6% 16% 16%
At&S ATS AV 178 N.A. N.A. 23.2 7.6 7.9 5.1 N.A. N.A. N.A. -14% -5% 24%
Average 58.5 29.2 9.1 7.1 243% 94% 14% 27%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data, and Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at 23 July 2026. For J.P.Morgan covered companies - Unimicron (3037 TT, covered by Jerry Tsai), Ibiden (4062 JP, by Akinori Kanemoto), and Samsung Electro (009150 KS, by Jay Kwon), forward financials are based on J.P.Morgan estimates. The remainder are based on Bloomberg consensus data

Table 2: I/S Highlights: Annual JPMe vs Consensus

NT$ mn except for EPS

JPMe JPMe JPMe Consensus Consensus Consensus Difference Difference Difference
FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E
Revenues 131,241 181,107 232,338 131,323 184,589 267,657 0% -2% -13%
Gross profit 18,292 50,114 101,663 18,256 42,413 83,495 0% 18% 22%
GM (%) 13.9% 27.7% 43.8% 13.9% 23.0% 31.2% 4bps 469bps 1,256bps
Operating profit 6,674 34,648 84,652 6,769 26,371 64,098 -1% 31% 32%
OPM (%) 5.1% 19.1% 36.4% 5.2% 14.3% 23.9% -7bps 484bps 1,249bps
Pre-Tax profit 8,827 39,544 87,310 7,537 32,616 66,619 17% 21% 31%
Net profit 6,673 29,961 66,383 5,348 25,316 52,740 25% 18% 26%
Net Margin 5.1% 16.5% 28.6% 4.1% 13.7% 19.7% 101bps 283bps 887bps
EPS (NT$) 4.38 19.01 41.77 3.49 16.14 33.42 26% 18% 25%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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Table 3: I/S Highlights: Annual Revised vs Previous

NT$ mn except for EPS

報告_JPM_欣興3037_20260723_004

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 4: JPM Quarterly and Annual Estimates

NT$mn, year-end December

FY25 FY25 FY25 FY25 FY26E FY26E FY26E FY26E FY27E FY27E FY27E FY27E
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E
Sales 30,090 32,466 33,994 34,691 37,446 42,890 49,204 51,567 54,302 57,574 59,729 60,733 115,373 131,241 181,107 232,338
qoq (%) yoy (%) 2 14 8 16 5 7 2 18 8 24 15 32 15 45 5 49 5 45 6 34 4 21 2 18 11 14 38 28
Gross profit 4,026 4,246 4,549 5,472 6,726 10,449 14,755 18,184 21,975 24,703 27,006 27,979 16,315 18,292 50,114 101,663
Operating (EBIT) 1,267 1,509 1,533 2,366 2,757 6,847 10,905 14,140 17,811 20,554 22,695 23,592 5,117 6,674 34,648 84,652
Net profit 915 30 2,194 3,535 5,043 5,259 8,563 11,096 13,627 16,187 17,935 18,634 5,082 6,673 29,961 66,383
EPS (NT$) 0.60 0.02 1.44 2.32 3.28 3.31 5.39 6.98 8.57 10.19 11.29 11.72 3.34 4.38 19.01 41.77
Revenue breakdown by application
Substrate 58% 58% 58% 59% 58% 59% 59% 61% 62% 62% 62% 63% 61% 58% 59% 62%
ABF 45% 41% 41% 46% 44% 46% 49% 52% 55% 57% 58% 59% 46% 43% 48% 57%
BT/Others 13% 17% 17% 12% 14% 13% 10% 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 16% 15% 11% 5%
HDI 28% 28% 28% 29% 30% 30% 28% 28% 28% 29% 30% 30% 24% 28% 29% 29%
FPC 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1%
PCB 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 11% 11% 7% 4%
Margins (%)
Gross 13.4 13.1 13.4 15.8 18.0 24.4 30.0 35.3 40.5 42.9 45.2 46.1 14.1 13.9 27.7 43.8
Operating 4.2 4.6 4.5 6.8 7.4 16.0 22.2 27.4 32.8 35.7 38.0 38.8 4.4 5.1 19.1 36.4
EBITDA 19.5 18.8 18.3 20.9 20.8 27.6 32.3 37.1 43.8 46.1 48.0 48.7 19.4 19.4 30.2 46.8
Net 3.0 0.1 6.5 10.2 13.5 12.3 17.4 21.5 25.1 28.1 30.0 30.7 4.4 5.1 16.5 28.6

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data

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Jerry Tsai AC (886-2) 2725-9867 jerry.tsai@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Unimicron (Overweight; Price Target: NT$1,150.00)

Investment Thesis

We are OW on Unimicron, given the long-term positive ABF substrate demand growth and emerging technological convergence, which we think puts the company in a good position to leverage opportunities such as SLP, Rigid-flex PCBs, etc. For ABF, there is a strong content growth opportunity (~50-100%) from rising layers/areas for HPC/AI/5G chips. The company has also been increasingly prudent regarding execution and capital spending, in our view.

Valuation

Our Dec-26 PT of NT$1,150 is based on an FY27E P/E of 27.5x , which is ~1.5 STD above the average multiple since 2018 (which excludes extremes). We believe this multiple is justified by the growth in key ASIC projects together with the GPU project ramp-up.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Downside risks to our rating and price target include:

  • Threats from alternative packaging technologies, such as silicon interposers and 3D ICs, which could significantly reduce the value-add of substrates.
  • ABF capacity expansion by Japanese/Korean peers that more than compensates for demand growth.
  • Macro overhang that pressures capital investments and CE/enterprise demand. A muted smartphone outlook could adversely affect demand for SLP/BT.
  • Delays in 5G mmWave pull-in demand, which could be negative for the contribution upside from BT.

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Unimicron: Summary of Financials

Income Statement - Annual FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Income Statement - Quarterly 1Q26A 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E
Revenue 115,373 131,241 181,107 232,338 - Revenue 37,446 42,890 49,204 51,567
COGS (81,827) (94,176)(110,964)(106,675) - COGS (25,692) (27,440) (29,449) (28,383)
Gross profit 16,315 18,292 50,114 101,663 - Gross profit 6,726 10,449 14,755 18,184
SG&A (6,156) (6,619) (8,505) (9,484) - SG&A (2,382) (1,887) (2,066) (2,170)
Adj. EBITDA 22,347 25,447 54,677 108,652 - Adj. EBITDA 7,785 11,847 15,905 19,140
D&A (17,231) (18,773) (20,029) (24,000) - D&A (5,029) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000)
Adj. EBIT 5,117 6,674 34,648 84,652 - Adj. EBIT 2,757 6,847 10,905 14,140
Net Interest 494 183 75 599 - Net Interest 21 (65) 62 57
Adj. PBT 7,321 8,827 39,544 87,310 - Adj. PBT 6,299 7,175 11,411 14,659
Tax (1,765) (1,277) (8,232) (19,576) - Tax (918) (1,578) (2,510) (3,225)
Minority Interest 474 877 1,351 1,351 - Minority Interest 338 338 338 338
Adj. Net Income 5,082 6,673 29,961 66,383 - Adj. Net Income 5,043 5,259 8,563 11,096
Reported EPS 3.34 4.38 19.01 41.77 - Reported EPS 3.28 3.31 5.39 6.98
Adj. EPS 3.34 4.38 19.01 41.77 - Adj. EPS 3.28 3.31 5.39 6.98
DPS 3.00 2.06 1.89 0.00 - DPS - - - -
Payout ratio 89.8% 47.1% 9.9% 0.0% - Payout ratio - - - -
Shares outstanding 1,589 - outstanding 1,589 1,589 1,589
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement 1,521 FY24A 1,524 FY25A 1,576 FY26E FY27E FY28E Shares Ratio Analysis FY24A 1,537 FY25A FY27E FY28E
Cash and cash equivalents 43,972 55,049 120,547 179,241 - Gross margin 14.1% 13.9% FY26E 27.7% 43.8% -
Accounts receivable 24,751 29,240 39,558 46,590 - EBITDA margin 19.4% 19.4% 30.2% 46.8% -
Inventories 14,863 17,802 29,651 34,883 - EBIT margin 4.4% 5.1% 19.1% 36.4% -
Other current assets 3,284 3,207 5,174 6,122 - Net profit margin 4.4% 5.1% 16.5% 28.6% -
Current assets 86,869 105,298 194,929 266,835 -
PP&E 121,128 126,472 86,718 70,718 - ROE 5.5% 6.9% 25.5% 41.6% -
LT investments - - - - - ROA 2.3% 2.7% 10.6% 19.7% -
3.0% 3.9% 15.6% 30.3%
Other non current assets 22,850 24,022 26,733 26,733 - ROCE 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% -
Total assets 230,847 255,792 308,380 364,286 - SG&A/Sales 5.3% NM -
Short term borrowings 10,871 22,206 34,950 31,587 - Net debt/equity 0.0 NM NM -
Payables 15,117 32,394 17,494 35,754 19,369 51,964 18,906 - P/E (x) P/BV (x) 268.2 14.7 204.7 13.6 47.1 10.6 21.5 7.7 - -
Other short term liabilities Current liabilities 58,382 75,455 106,283 60,848 111,341 - - EV/EBITDA (x) NM NM NM NM -
Long-term debt 32,905 34,873 24,346 24,346 - Dividend Yield 0.3% 0.2%
Other long term liabilities 39,973 38,457 39,611 40,799 - 0.2% 0.0% -
Total liabilities 131,260 148,785 170,239 176,486 Sales/Assets (x) 51.6% 53.9% 64.2% 69.1% -
Shareholders' equity 93,265 100,569 134,572 184,231 - Interest cover (x) NM NM NM NM -
Minority interests 6,322 6,438 3,569 3,569 - - Operating leverage (391.3%) 221.4% 1103.1% 510.2% -
Total liabilities & equity 230,847 255,792 308,380 364,286 -
Revenue y/y Growth 10.9% 13.8% 38.0% 28.3% -
BVPS 61.0 65.7 84.7 115.9 - EBITDA y/y Growth (7.0%) 13.9% 114.9% 98.7% -
y/y Growth 2.5% 7.9% 28.8% 36.9% - Tax rate 24.1% 14.5% 20.8% 22.4% -
Net debt/(cash) (196) 2,030 (61,251)(123,308) - Adj. Net Income y/y Growth (57.6%) 31.3% 349.0% 121.6% -
Cash flow from operating activities 18,851 22,849 30,581 79,560 - EPS y/y Growth (57.6%) 31.0% 334.2% 119.7% -
o/w Depreciation & amortization 17,231 18,773 20,029 24,000 - DPS y/y Growth (62.5%) (31.3%) (8.3%) (100.0%) -
o/w Changes in working capital (5,436) (4,974) (22,260) (13,675) -
Cash activities (25,049) (23,324) (29,360) (1,000) -
flow from investing (30,860) (2,500) -
o/w Capital expenditure (26,549) (24,824) -
as % of sales 23.0% (2,126) 18.9% 8,631 17.0% 964 1.1% (15,657) -
Cash flow from financing activities o/w Dividends paid (4,575) (3,151) (3,003) (13,482) -
o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) 13,095 13,303 2,217 (3,363) -
Net change in cash (8,324) 8,157 2,185 62,903 - -
Adj. Free cash flow to firm (7,276) (797) (394) 77,060
y/y Growth (191.4%) (89.0%) (50.6%)(19668.5%) -

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Note: NT$ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which

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request.

Unimicron (3037.TW, 3037 TT) Price Chart

J.P.Morgan

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Price(NT$) 750

Jerry Tsai AC (886-2) 2725-9867 jerry.tsai@jpmorgan.com

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OW NT$275

LOW NT$250 OW NTS734

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Asia Pacific Equity Research 23 July 2026

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