報告_JPM_力積電6770_20260715

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原始內容

Quant

Factors

Value

Growth

Momentum

Quality

Low Vol

Current

%Rank

23

78

5

98

94

Hist %Rank (1=Top)

97

99

42

95

3

96

100

74

98

100

57

46

53

68

98

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.

Stronger-than-expected GM on near-term price hikes; rising AI contribution in medium term; stay OW

We now believe PSMC's GM ramp could be faster than expected, given stronger price hikes in its memory foundry business. Meanwhile, logic foundry is tracking well, with 10-15% price increases across both 8'' and 12'' in 1H26. Beyond pricing, we expect continued mix improvement (e.g. higher memory contribution, rising PMIC share in logic while reducing DDIC and sensor exposure) to support overall ASP growth of 50%+/25%+ in 2026/27. Longer term, we see several new growth drivers: 1) DRAM process migration to 1X (self-developed) and 1P (technology transferred from Micron); 2) HBM post-wafer fabrication (PWF) outsourced from Micron; 3) Si capacitor wafers primarily for Intel EMIB; 4) Interposer demand spillover from tight CoWoS supply at TSMC; and 5) WoW stacking as a more power-efficient memory architecture. We therefore believe revenue and margin expansion can extend beyond the near-term pricing momentum and persist into 2027-28. We maintain OW with a PT of NT$100.

• Strong pricing momentum in both memory and logic: PSMC reported +27% QoQ revenue growth and an +18ppt GM expansion in 2Q, as strong memory price hikes in late 2025 finally flowed through (given the ~5-month cycle time). Beyond spot-price tailwinds, the company implemented a structural price hike for memory foundry in February, followed by another in July of greater magnitude (~45%). We therefore expect a stronger-than-anticipated revenue and margin ramp in 4Q26. On the logic side, the pricing environment is also improving: both 8" and 12" saw 10-15% price increases in 1H, with potential for further hikes in 2H (particularly 8"). ASP growth could extend beyond headline price increases as PSMC continues to shift mix toward higher-margin products (e.g., PMIC) while reducing exposure to lower-margin lines (DDIC, sensors), aided by tight capacity (near full UTR now excluding lines under progress of relocation from P5). In sum, with rising memory contribution (>50% of revenue now), continued logic mix improvement, and a robust pricing backdrop, we expect the company's blended ASP to increase 50+%/25+% YoY in 2026/27.
• DRAM technology migration and PWF to drive long-term memory growth: PSMC is pursuing several memory upgrades: 1) a self-developed 1X process node; 2) a 1P node via technology transfer from Micron; and 3) HBM PWF (post-wafer fabrication) outsourced from Micron, with Micron already making prepayments. The 1X node was ready in June, while the 1P node will ramp in mid-2028 and offers 1.5-2x ASP versus PSMC's current node. The PWF mini-line is targeted for completion by YE26 with MP in 4Q27, which we believe will be margin-accretive. We therefore view PSMC's memory growth as increasingly structural and sustainable-extending beyond spot-price dynamics.
• 3D AI foundry as a new growth engine, with Si capacitor taking the lead: 3D AI foundry reached 5+% of company revenue in 2Q26, up from 3% in 1Q and 2-3% in 2025. The company targets 20% of revenue from 3D AI foundry within three years, supported by: 1) strong demand for Si capacitors (primarily

Sources for: Style Exposure - J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

Overweight

6770.TWO, 6770 TT Price (14 Jul 26):NT$69.20 Price Target (Jun-27):NT$100.00

Technology and Telecoms

Gokul Hariharan AC

(852) 2800-8564 gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Jennifer Hsieh

(886-2) 2725-9868 jennifer.hsieh@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

David Chou

(886-2) 2725-9618 david.chou@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Jason Chen

(886-2) 2725-9864 jason.bh.chen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Subham Singhania

(91-22) 6157-3801 subham.singhania@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Style Exposure

Flice Ferrormance

Ferrormance Drivers

100

J.P. Morgan

Market

75

NT$

Region

Idiosyn.

0

Oct 25

Factors

Market: MSCI Asia Pac ex JP

Macro:

Quant Styles:

Size

Quality

Growth

28%

Jan 26

Apr 26

6M Corr

0.59

— TSE (rebased)

61%

1Y Corr

0.50

Jul 26

0.00

YTD

75.0%

20.5%

Abs

Rel

-0.20

1m

3.0%

1.7%

3m

26.7%

3.5%

12m

327.2%

229.3%

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

0%

Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We are OW on PSMC, given its ability to sustain revenue and margin expansion beyond near-term pricing upside, which is likely to extend into the 2027-28 timeframe. We also expect continued mix improvement from higher memory representation and increasing PMIC contribution in logic with less DDIC and sensor exposure, supporting overall ASP growth of 50%+/25%+ in 2026/27. Longer term, we see several new growth drivers: 1) DRAM process migration to 1X and 1P; 2) HBM post-wafer fabrication (PWF); 3) Si capacitor wafers for Intel EMIB; 4) Interposer demand spillover from tight CoWoS supply; and 5) WoW stacking for more power-efficient memory architecture.

Valuation

We are OW on PSMC with a Jun-27 PT of NT$100 (13x 12M forward earnings, one notch lower vs. prior, given recent weaker memory sentiment) to reflect stronger memory Foundry ASP upgrades and multiple catalysts from MU collaborations and upside from logic Foundry.

Performance Drivers

used in Intel EMIB); 2) the PWF business with Micron; 3) interposer demand benefiting from spillover given tight TSMC CoWoS supply; and 4) WoW demand driven by the power-efficiency advantages of hybrid bonding versus current micro-bumps used in HBM. We believe Si capacitors make up the majority of current 3D AI revenue at ~1-2k wfpm shipment. The company is targeting 8-10k wfpm capacity by YE27, and we believe it can potentially ramp to 15-20k by 2028. Interposers should see rising contribution in 2027 once the 5-6k wfpm capacity relocated from P5 comes online. WoW and PWF are longer-term drivers, in our view-likely 2028 and beyond-once larger-scale capacity is in place.

• GM ramping faster than expected: The GM improvement is coming in faster than our previous expectation. We now model PSMC reaching ~43%/48% GM by YE26/27 and expect it to surpass its historical peak of 51% by mid-2028. Near-term drivers are stronger-than-expected price hikes in both logic and memory, while multiple new business lines provide mid-term support for continued margin expansion. We forecast EPS of NT$6.61 in 2026 (including the one-off gain from selling the Tongluo fab to Micron) and NT$7.16/NT$8.40 in 2027/28 (up 130%/17% YoY on a recurring basis).

Table 1: PSMC - 2Q26 earnings review

NT$ in millions, %

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Estimate Revisions

Table 2: PSMC - Quarterly estimate revisions

NT$ in millions, %

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Earnings Review

Table 3: PSMC - Annual estimate revisions

NT$ in millions, %

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 4: PSMC - Financials

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (Overweight; Price

Target: NT$100.00)

Investment Thesis

We are OW on PSMC, given its ability to sustain revenue and margin expansion beyond near-term pricing upside, which is likely to extend into the 2027-28 timeframe. We also expect continued mix improvement from higher memory representation and increasing PMIC contribution in logic with less DDIC and sensor exposure, supporting overall ASP growth of 50%+/25%+ in 2026/27. Longer term, we see several new growth drivers: 1) DRAM process migration to 1X and 1P; 2) HBM post-wafer fabrication (PWF); 3) Si capacitor wafers for Intel EMIB; 4) Interposer demand spillover from tight CoWoS supply; and 5) WoW stacking for more power-efficient memory architecture.

Valuation

We are OW on PSMC with a Jun-27 PT of NT$100 (13x 12M forward earnings, one notch lower vs. prior, given recent weaker memory sentiment) to reflect stronger memory Foundry ASP upgrades and multiple catalysts from MU collaborations and upside from logic Foundry.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key upside risks would be (1) faster progress on HBM packaging and future DRAM process tech collaboration with Micron, (2) stronger growth in the interposer business.

Key downside risks are (1) continued downtrend in spot DRAM prices, given the significant premium to contract prices, (2) execution challenges in the tech transfer and collaboration with Micron.

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.: Summary of Financials

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Note: NT$ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which

request.

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (6770.TWO, 6770 TT)

Price Charzo

J.P. Morgan

80

Price(NT$) 60

40

Da

19

05

17.

25

22

19.

06

22

21

Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an 'AC' on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an 'AC' on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the Research Analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the Research Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that the Research Analyst's analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst's own opinion, without undue influence or intervention.

All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.