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報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806

更新 2026-08-07

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_002.png 42KB 真資料圖 6515.TW 股價 vs 台灣加權指數走勢圖(Oct-25 至 Jul-26),下方列 3m/6m/12m 絕對與相對報酬(12m 絕對 504.9%)
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_003.png 43KB 真資料圖 WinWay 營收結構堆疊柱狀圖(2019-2028E,NT$mn):Coaxial Socket/RF-Plastic Socket/Contact Element/Probe Card/Burn-in Socket/Others,疊加 YoY% 折線
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_005.png 42KB 真資料圖 Taiex vs WinWay 股價走勢圖(Aug-20 至 Aug-26,雙軸)
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_006.png 50KB 真資料圖 WinWay Forward P/E 圖(Aug-20 至 Aug-26,40x-80x 虛線區間)
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_007.png 45KB 真資料圖 WinWay Forward P/B 圖(Aug-20 至 Aug-26,15x-35x 虛線區間)
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_009.png 76KB 真資料圖 Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖(2023-2026):標示歷次 TP 1465→1480→1500→2550→2600→4500→6300→15000,評等自 NA(2025-05-24 起 Buy)
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_001.png 21KB 未驗證(<40KB,預設 logo)
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_004.png 27KB 未驗證(<40KB,預設 logo)
報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_008.png 36KB 未驗證(<40KB,預設 logo)

原始內容

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Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW)

Earnings Review: 2Q26 GM inline; Near term momentum set to further accelerate with robust TAM expansion into 2028; reiterate Buy; TP to NT$14,800

6515.TW

12m Pri c e Target:

NT$14,800.00

Pri

c

e:

NT$6,775.00

Upside:

118.5%

WinWay reported its 2Q26 preliminary results (see Exhibit 1) on 6 Aug. 2Q26 GM was down by 4.7ppts QoQ to 38.3% in 2Q26, below cons. of 42.7% but inline with our expectation of 38.6% (see our preview). The company also reported its July revenue, which came in much stronger than GSe. On the back of the ongoing capacity expansion and the robust demand especially from US customers following new project ramps in 2H26, we now expect further strength in revenue growth momentum of 56% HoH (vs. 35% previously) into 2H26E .

We continue to see WinWay as a key bene fi ciary under AI mega trend with solid customer pro fi le ( AI GPU/server CPU/AI ASIC customers accounting for 80%+ of total revenue ) and strong TAM expansion for testing interface industry. WinWay's share price fell 32% (vs Taiex -5%) over the past one month, which we believe likely re fl ects concern over near term GM weakness. The shares now trade at c.31x/16x FY27/28E (vs. avg. of 50x/40x over the past 1 year/since the AI boom starting 2024), with earnings CAGR expected to further accelerate to 108% over the 2025-28E period (vs. 86% in 2023-25), we thus see risk reward further skewed to the upside. We revise up our 2027/28E EPS by 11-14%, and raise our 12m TP to NT$14,800 (40x 2028E discounted P/E) from NT$13,000, with 118.5% implied upside, and reiterate our Buy rating.

2Q26 GM inline with GSe but miss cons.

2Q26 GM of 38.3% (down 468bps QoQ) came in largely inline with GSe, yet below cons. of 42.7%, which we attribute to incremental upfront cost/depreciation from capacity expansion, higher revenue contribution from lower-GM MEMS probe card, and cost in fl ation across the supply chain. 2Q26 opex ratio of 14.9% was inline with GSe but below cons. of 15.9%, thanks to better cost control and stronger operating leverage. Overall, WinWay's 2Q26 EPS of

BUY

Evelyn Yu

+886(2)2730-4187 | evelyn.yu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch

Ryan Huang, CFA

+886(2)2730-4084 | ryan.huang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch

Key Data _____________________________________

Market cap: NT$232.4bn / $7.2bn

Enterprise value: NT$232.9bn / $7.2bn

3m ADTV: NT$3.4bn / $108.4mn

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor

M&A Rank: 3

Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes

GS Forecast 12/25 __________ 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E
Revenue(NT$mn) New 7,857.2 16,672.0 32,543.3 55,295.6
Revenue (NT$ mn) Old 7,857.2 15,288.8 26,645.8 44,122.1
EBITDA (NT$ mn) 2,327.7 4,487.5 10,169.1 19,380.9
EPS(NT$) New 46.96 98.73 220.22 420.42
EPS (NT$) Old 46.96 95.94 197.73 369.29
P/E (X) 32.5 68.6 30.8 16.1
P/B (X) 8.5 30.1 18.2 10.8
Dividend yield (%) 2.3 1.1 2.4 4.7
CROCI (%) 31.8 27.7 75.2 110.8
6/26 9/26E 12/26E 3/27E
EPS (NT$) 18.70 27.40 33.10 35.42

le ______________________________

報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_001

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

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BUY

Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW)

Rating since May 25, 2025

Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________

12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E
P/E (X) 32.5 68.6 30.8 16.1
P/B (X) 8.5 30.1 18.2 10.8
FCF yield (%) 2.8 0.1 2.2 5.1
EV/EBITDAR (X) 22.3 54.3 23.7 12.1
EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) 22.3 54.3 23.7 12.1
CROCI (%) 31.8 27.7 75.2 110.8
ROE (%) 27.9 48.8 73.9 84.3
Net debt/equity (%) (40.2) 6.1 (15.9) (38.7)
Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) (40.2) 6.1 (15.9) (38.7)
Inte r est c ov e r (X) 781.0 195.0 537.9 1 , 019.1
Days in v ent or y o utst , sales 37.2 27.3 29.7 29.8
Recei v able days 92.7 73.1 84.9 87.6
Days p ayable o utstandin g 138.4 117.0 150.1 162.1
DuP o nt ROE (%) 26.0 43.8 59.3 67.1
Tu r n ov e r (X) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3
L e v e r a g e (X) 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.9
Gro ss cas h in v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) 4 , 744.2 9 , 490.7 12 , 528.6 15 , 645.3
A v e r a g e ca p ital e mp l o yed (NT $ ) 4 , 207.2 6 , 216.1 9 , 901.1 12 , 518.0
BVP S (NT $ ) 178.83 225.02 371.27 626.52

Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________

12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E
Total revenue growth 3 5.5 112.2 95.2 69.9
E BITDA growth 45.0 92.8 126.6 90.6
E PS growth 3 6.5 110. 3 12 3 .0 90.9
DPS growth 3 6.4 110. 3 12 3 .0 90.9
E BIT margin 26. 3 25.2 3 0.0 3 4.1
E BITDA margin 29.6 26.9 3 1.2 3 5.0
Net income margin 21. 3 21. 3 24. 3 27. 3

Price Performance __________________________________________

報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_002

Source: FactSet. Price as of 6 Aug 2026 close.

Income Statement (NT$ mn) 12/26E 12/27E ________ 12/28E
To t a l r e v e nu e 7,857 . 2 16,672 . 0 32,543 . 3 55,295 . 6
Cost of goods sold (4,300 . 7) (10,043 . 1) (18,887 . 8) (31,152 . 5)
SG&A (1,070 . 8) (1,756 . 6) (2,932 . 8) (4,035 . 6)
R&D (416 . 1) (677 . 2) (951 . 0) (1,250 . 1)
Other operating inc . /(exp . ) -- -- -- --
E BITDA 2 ,3 27 . 7 4,4 87 . 5 1 0, 16 9. 1 1 9,3 8 0.9
Depreciation& amortization (258 . 1) (292 . 5) (397 . 3) (523 . 6)
E BIT 2 ,0 6 9. 6 4, 1 9 5 .0 9, 771 . 8 18 , 857 .4
Net interest inc . /(exp . ) 45 . 1 39 . 3 41 . 7 41 . 5
Income/(loss) from associates Pre-tax pro fi t -- 2 ,0 61 . 2 -- 4,3 75 . 8 -- 9, 81 3.4 -- 18 , 8 9 8 .9
Provision for taxes (388 . 3) (830 . 3) (1,896 . 8) (3,785 . 6)
Minority interest -- -- -- --
Preferred dividends -- -- -- --
N et inc . ( pre-ex c ept i o n a ls) , 672 .9 5 4 5 . 15 , 11 3.3
Post-tax exceptionals 1 -- 3, 5 -- 7 ,9 16 . 6 -- --
N et inc . ( po s t-ex c ept i o 1 , 672 .9 3, 5 4 5 . 5 7 ,9 16 . 6 15 , 11 3.3
n a ls) E P S(b a sic , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) 4 6 .9 6 9 8 . 7 3 22 0. 22 4 2 0.4 2
E P S(dilu te d , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) 4 6 .9 6 9 8 . 7 3 22 0. 22 4 2 0.4 2
E P S(b a sic , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) 4 6 .9 6 9 8 . 7 3 22 0. 22 4 2 0.4 2
E P S(dilu te d , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) 4 6 .9 6 9 8 . 7 3 22 0. 22 4 2 0.4 2
DPS (NT$) 35 . 22 74 . 05 165 . 17 315 . 31
Div . payout ratio (%)
Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) 75 . 0 ______ 75 . 0 75 . 0 75 . 0
C a sh& c a sh equiv a lents 12/25 2,593.9 12/26E 2,335.1 12/27E 4,952.0 12/28E 11,534.7
Accounts receiv a ble 2,151.9 4,524.7 10,613.7 15,915.1
Inventory
Other current a ssets 842.5 838.2 1,647.3 4,170.9 3,645.2 4,170.9 5,385.4 4,170.9
Total current assets 6 ,4 26. 3 12 , 677. 9 2 3,3 81. 9 3 7 ,00 6. 0
Net PP&E 2,206.0 2,933.1 3,991.4 5,214.8
Net int a ngibles 51.1 66.3 87.6 104.9
Tot a l investments 5.0 47.3 47.3 47.3
Other long-term a ssets 355.7 636.7 636.7 28 , 1 44 . 9 636.7 43,009 .8
Total assets 9,044 .2 16 ,3 61. 3 16,661.9
Accounts p a y a ble 1,914.2 4,526.7 11,012.8
Short-term debt Short-term le a se li a bilities -- -- -- --
Other current li a bilities -- 610.0 -- 838.3 -- 878.3 -- 918.3
Total current liabilities 2 , 52 4 .2 5 ,3 65. 0 11 , 8 9 1. 0 17 , 58 0 .2
Long-term debt 0.0 2,826.9 2,826.9 2,826.9
Long-term le a se li a bilities -- -- -- --
Other long-term li a bilities 74.7 80.4 80.4 80.4
Total long-term liabilities 7 4 .7 2 ,90 7. 2 ,90 7. 3 2 ,90 7. 3
Total liabilities Preferred sh a res 2 , 5 9 8. 9 3 8 , 272. 3 1 4, 7 9 8. 3 2 0,4 87. 4
Tot a l commonequity -- 6,445.3 -- 8,089.0 -- 13,346.5 -- 22,522.4
Minority interest -- -- -- --
Total liabilities &equity 9,044 .2 16 ,3 61. 3 28 , 1 44 . 9 43,009 .8
Net debt, a djusted (2,593.9) 491.8 (2,125.1) (8,707.8)
Cash Flow (NT$ mn) __________ 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E
Net income 1,67 2 .9 3,545.5 7,916.6 15,113.3
D&Aadd-back Minority interest add-back 2 58.1 -- 2 9 2 .5 -- 397.3 -- 5 2 3.6
Net (inc)/dec w orking capital 166.1 (565.1) (1,601.0) -- 2 .4)
Other operating cash flo w ( 2 94.3) -- (1,39 --
Cash flow fro m operations 1 , 8 0 2 . 8 (1,837.0) 1 ,43 5 . 8 6 , 712 1 4, 2 44.4
.9 (1,7
Capital expenditures ( 2 80.0) -- (1,197.4) -- (1,436.9) -- 2 4.3) --
Acquisitions Divestitures -- --
Others -- 2 . 2 -- (3,140. 2 ) --
Cash flow fro m investing 1,00 722 . 2 (4,33 7 . 6 ) -- ( 1 ,43 6 .9) , 72 4.3)
( 1
Repayment of lease liabilities pref) -- -- -- 2 ,659.1) -- (5,937.5)
Dividends paid(common& Inc/(dec) in debt s (890.0) (150.7) (1, 2 54.7) 3,896.0 ( -- -- 0.0
Other financing cash flo w Cash flow fro m (14.3) 1 ,0 55 . 1 ) 1.7 2 , 6 43.0 0.0 ( 2 , 65 9. 1 ) ,93 7 . 5 )
financing ( 2 , 616 .9 ( 5 6 , 582 . 6
Total cash flow Free cash flo w 1 ,4 6 9.9 ( 258 . 7 )
1,5 22 .8 2 38.4 5, 2 1 2 ,5 2
0.1
76.0

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

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NT$18.70 came in slightly below GSe but missed cons. by 11%.

Set for accelerating revenue momentum into 3Q26

Looking ahead, WinWay's stronger-than-expected July revenue reinforces our expectation of continued strong growth into 3Q26. July revenue reached NT$1,600mn, accounting for c.38% of our prior 3Q26E revenue forecast of NT$4,262mn. We thus revised up our 3Q26E revenue forecast and now model 3Q26E revenue to grow by 36.9% QoQ (vs. 21.0% QoQ previously). We believe this strong sequential growth will mainly be driven by the ramp-up of new projects for WinWay's US customers for AI GPU, server CPU and AI ASIC.

On margin front, however, we expect the incremental upfront costs/depreciation associated with capacity expansion to persist in the near term, together with continued strength in lower-GM MEMS probe cards, weighing on GM in 3Q26. Overall, we now expect GM to remain largely fl at QoQ at 38.8% (vs. 39.3% previously).

Multiple structural growth drivers to support a robust earnings CAGR into 2028

We believe WinWay's growth will continue to surpass management's baseline guidance of 50-60% TAM expansion into 2028, driven by 1) stronger server CPU test socket demand driven by agentic AI; 2) ongoing share gains in the AI GPU SLT market following its penetration into its US AI GPU customer's SLT market beyond the FT market; 3) content value growth across generations, with pin counts already rising at least 30% for one of its key AI GPU customers and potentially doubling for another AI ASIC project; and 4) accelerating HyperSocket adoption, with over 50% of new customer programs expected to adopt the new architecture and bene fi t from 20-30% higher ASPs vs. coaxial sockets.

To meet this robust demand, we believe WinWay is on track to expand its capacity aggressively, with management targeting an increase in socket pin capacity from 3.5mn pins per month at end-2025 to 9mn by end-2026, and further to 14mn pins by 1H27 -representing 157% YoY capacity growth in 2026E, followed by another 56% increase into 1H27. Overall, we expect WinWay to enjoy robust multi-year growth, with revenue projected to grow 112.2%/95.2%/69.9% YoY in 2026-28E (vs. 94.6%/74.3%/65.6% YoY previously).

See also:

  • Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW): June earnings miss driven by product mix; favorable n long term TAM expansion intact; reiterate Buy (15 July 2026)
  • Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW): Accelerating long-term TAM growth outlook extends n expansion visibility into 2030; reiterate Buy (26 May 2025)

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2Q26 results summary, charts, and valuations

Exhibit 1: 2Q26 preliminary results summary

2Q26 1Q26 2Q25 %QoQ %YoY GS prev. %Diff Consensus %Diff
(NT$mn)
Revenue 3,523 2,980 1,522 18.2% 131.4% 3,523 0.0% 3,405 3.5%
Gross profit 1,350 1,282 746 5.4% 81.1% 1,358 -0.6% 1,454 -7.1%
Op. income 825 777 460 6.2% 79.4% 834 -1.1% 914 -9.7%
Net income 672 699 205 -3.8% 228.0% 706 -4.8% 757 -11.1%
EPS (NT$) 18.70 19.54 5.76 -4.3% 224.6% 19.74 -5.3% 21.02 -11.0%
GM 38.3% 43.0% 49.0% -4.7% -10.6% 38.6% -0.2% 42.7% -4.4%
OpM 23.4% 26.1% 30.2% -2.6% -6.8% 23.7% -0.3% 26.8% -3.4%
NM 19.1% 23.4% 13.5% -4.4% 5.6% 20.0% -1.0% 22.2% -3.1%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

Exhibit 2: Winway's revenue growth outlook

報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_003

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: WinWay's margin trend

報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_004

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Earnings changes, valuation and risks

Forecast changes

We incorporate the 2Q26 preliminary results into our model and revise up our 2026/2027/2028E EPS by 2.9%/11.4%/13.8% mainly as we factor in 1) WinWay's stronger-than-expected July revenue 2) ongoing capacity expansion, and 3) robust demand especially from US customers following new project ramps in 2H26.

Exhibit 4: Earnings revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(NT$mn) Old New Diff (%) Old New Diff (%) Old New Diff (%)
Revenue 15,289 16,672 9.0% 26,646 32,543 22.1% 44,122 55,296 25.3%
Gross profit 6,164 6,629 7.5% 11,510 13,656 18.6% 19,957 24,143 21.0%
Op. income 4,000 4,195 4.9% 8,701 9,772 12.3% 16,337 18,857 15.4%
Net income 3,430 3,545 3.4% 7,069 7,917 12.0% 13,202 15,113 14.5%
EPS (NT$) 95.94 98.73 2.9% 197.73 220.22 11.4% 369.29 420.42 13.8%
GM 40.3% 39.8% -0.6% 43.2% 42.0% -1.2% 45.2% 43.7% -1.6%
OpM 26.2% 25.2% -1.0% 32.7% 30.0% -2.6% 37.0% 34.1% -2.9%
NM 22.4% 21.3% -1.2% 26.5% 24.3% -2.2% 29.9% 27.3% -2.6%
3Q26E 3Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 4Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 1Q27E 1Q27E
(NT$mn) Old New Diff (%) Old New Diff (%) Old New Diff (%)
Revenue 4,262 4,823 13.2% 4,523 5,345 18.2% 4,600 5,803 26.2%
Gross profit 1,676 1,869 11.5% 1,848 2,127 15.1% 1,919 2,368 23.4%
Op. income 1,117 1,198 7.2% 1,272 1,395 9.7% 1,334 1,593 19.4%
Net income 935 985 5.3% 1,090 1,190 9.1% 1,072 1,273 18.8%
EPS (NT$) 26.16 27.40 4.7% 30.50 33.10 8.5% 29.99 35.42 18.1%
GM 39.3% 38.8% -0.6% 40.8% 39.8% -1.0% 41.7% 40.8% -0.9%
OpM 26.2% 24.8% -1.4% 28.1% 26.1% -2.0% 29.0% 27.4% -1.6%
NM 21.9% 20.4% -1.5% 24.1% 22.3% -1.8% 23.3% 21.9% -1.4%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Maintain Buy with TP raised to NT$14,800 from NT$13,000

As a result of our upward earnings revisions, we raise our 12-month TP to NT$14,800 (from NT$13,000 previously). Our 12-month TP is still based on 40x 2028E discounted P/E. We apply this to our 2028E EPS, and discount it back to 2027E at a 13.6% CoE to arrive at our TP. Our key assumptions for CoE include: (1) 1.5x beta (sourcing Bloomberg), (2) a 4.25% risk-free rate (inline with GS house-view), and (3) a market risk premium of 6.25% (in line with our GS house view). Overall, our new TP implies c.118.5% upside from the current share price, and we maintain our Buy rating on WinWay.

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Exhibit 5: WinWay's P&L overview

1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2026E 2027E 2028E
P&L
Revenue 2,980 3,523 4,823 5,345 5,803 7,051 8,771 10,918 16,672 32,543 55,296
Gross profit 1,282 1,350 1,869 2,127 2,368 2,910 3,679 4,698 6,629 13,656 24,143
Operating profit 777 825 1,198 1,395 1,593 2,021 2,643 3,516 4,195 9,772 18,857
Net income 699 672 985 1,190 1,273 1,601 2,096 2,947 3,545 7,917 15,113
EPS (NT$) 19.54 18.70 27.40 33.10 35.42 44.53 58.30 81.97 98.73 220.22 420.42
Margins (%)
GM 43.0% 38.3% 38.8% 39.8% 40.8% 41.3% 41.9% 43.0% 39.8% 42.0% 43.7%
OpM 26.1% 23.4% 24.8% 26.1% 27.4% 28.7% 30.1% 32.2% 25.2% 30.0% 34.1%
NM 23.4% 19.1% 20.4% 22.3% 21.9% 22.7% 23.9% 27.0% 21.3% 24.3% 27.3%
YoY (%)
Revenue 29.7% 131.4% 167.4% 139.3% 94.7% 100.1% 81.9% 104.3% 112.2% 95.2% 69.9%
Gross profit 14.4% 81.1% 146.3% 128.4% 84.7% 115.5% 96.8% 120.8% 86.4% 106.0% 76.8%
Operating profit 6.8% 79.4% 194.0% 194.0% 105.1% 144.9% 120.6% 152.0% 102.7% 132.9% 93.0%
Net income 14.0% 228.0% 164.9% 146.2% 82.3% 138.1% 112.8% 147.7% 111.9% 123.3% 90.9%
EPS 13.5% 224.6% 162.7% 144.1% 81.3% 138.1% 112.8% 147.7% 110.3% 123.0% 90.9%
QoQ (%)
Revenue 33.4% 18.2% 36.9% 10.8% 8.6% 21.5% 24.4% 24.5%
Gross profit 37.6% 5.4% 38.4% 13.8% 11.3% 22.9% 26.4% 27.7%
Operating profit 63.6% 6.2% 45.2% 16.5% 14.2% 26.9% 30.8% 33.0%
Net income 44.5% -3.8% 46.5% 20.8% 7.0% 25.7% 30.9% 40.6%
EPS 44.1% -4.3% 46.5% 20.8% 7.0% 25.7% 30.9% 40.6%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 6: Taiex vs. WinWay

報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_005

Source: Bloomberg

報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_006

Source: Bloomberg

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Exhibit 8: Forward P/B

報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_007

Source: Bloomberg

Exhibit 9: P/B vs. ROE

報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260806_008

Source: Bloomberg

Investment Thesis, Price Target Risks and Methodology

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