PDF 原檔：報告_GS_欣興3037_20260728_original.pdf
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85KB | 真資料圖 | Unimicron Technology（3037.TW）GS 評等與目標價沿革圖：藍線為股價（左軸，NT$）、灰線為台灣加權指數（右軸），下方藍色方塊標示評等區間（B/N）、深藍實心方塊標示歷次目標價（含數字標籤，如 555、630、370、425、96.25、142.89、148.84、168.69、197.46、213.34、238.15、247.97、253.00、238.15），涵蓋 2023–2026；圖說標明資料來源 Goldman Sachs Investment Research、FactSet 收盤價至 2026/6/30 |
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原始內容
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Unimicron Technology (3037.TW): 2Q26 fi rst take: Much stronger than expected GM/OPM with better substrate pro fi tability; Neutral
2Q26 result overview
Unimicron's 2Q26 core business (OPI) was 16/26% higher than GSe/BBG consensus, mainly driven by the 3.1ppt higher than GSe/BBG consensus GM. We believe the solid GM expansion (+6.8ppt QoQ, +11.7ppt YoY) was driven by (1) the much better ABF substrate product mix and ASP, while normally the high-end ABF substrate GM can be as high as 50%-70% today, and (2) the better BT substrate product mix and utilization rate, as well as the better pricing condition for memory related BT substrates.
For earnings, Unimicron 2Q26 EPS was 143%/158% higher than GSe/BBG consensus due to the fi nancial asset reevaluation gain.
Valuation
We are Neutral rated with a 12-month TP of NT$1,140, based on the 17.4x 2028E P/E (2.7x STDV higher than the past upcycle average P/E of 10.3x).
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuanchao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
Unimicron (3037.TW)
Revenue
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42,890
2Q26
GS est.
42,920
Diff (%)
0%
14%
Exhibit 1: Unimicron 2Q26 result comp table
Pre-tax income
Net earnings
EPS, NT$
Gross margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net margin (%)
QoQ
1Q26
37,446
6,726
2,757
QoQ 2025
15%
32,466
58%
141%
4,246
1,509
| 15,576 | 7,293 114% 6,299 | 7,293 114% 6,299 | 7,293 114% 6,299 | 147% | 357 | 4266% 7,507 | 4266% 7,507 | 107% | 107% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13,555 | 5,339 | 154% | 5,043 | 169% | 30 | 45683% | 5,439 | 149% | |
| 8.45 | 3.47 | 143% | 3.28 | 158% | 0.02 | 43349% | 3.28 | 158% | |
| 24.8% | 21.7% | 3.1ppt | 18.0% | 6.8ppt | 13.1% | 11.7ppt | 21.7% | 3.1ppt | |
| 15.5% | 13.4% | 2.1ppt | 7.4% | 8.1ppt | 4.6% | 10.9ppt | 12.4% | 3.1ppt | |
| 31.6% | 12.4% | 19.2ppt | 13.5% | 18.1ppt | 0.1% | 31.5ppt | 12.7% | 18.9ppt |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Investment Thesis & PT methodology and risks
Investment Thesis - Unimicron Technology
Unimicron is a key supplier of ABF substrates (25% market share in 2025) and BT substrates and also produces FPC/HDI/PCB products. We are Neutral rated on the shares given long-term growth opportunity prospects: (1) over 70% of ABF shipments are covered by long-term agreements (LTA), which limits pricing fl exibility and makes price hike less likely; (2) the company's execution track record has been weaker than peers; (3) capacity expansion plan remains slower than peers, constraining its ability to capture incremental AI demand. The current ABF substrates market is seeing more favorable supply demand outlook, and Unimicron is likely to see better pricing outlook to re fl ect rising material costs in the coming quarters. AI ABF account for 10% of the company's total revenue, but the growth is likely to be slower than peers due to the company continuing to lose market share to peers given its less favourable production yield and slow capacity expansion. Overall, we are Neutral rated on Unimicron given our outlook for the limited upside potential, barring ASIC AI servers, despite our generally positive view on the long term on pro fi tability trajectory.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Unimicron Technology
Valuation methodology: Our 12-month target price of NT$1,140 for Unimicron is based on 17.4x 2028E P/E, which is 2.7x STDV higher than the past upcycle average P/E (10.3x).
Key upside/downside risks: (1) Slower/faster-than-expected PC demand recovery, (2) Slower/faster-than-expected ABF substrates upgrading pace, and (3) Slower/faster than-expected AI server PCB market share loss progress.
YoY
YoY
32%
151%
341%
Bloomberg consensus
42,708
0%
9,252
5,285
15%
26%
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| 3037.TW 12m Price | Target: NT$1,140.00 | Price: NT$764.00 | Price: NT$764.00 | Upside: 49.2% | Upside: 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| Market c ap: NT$1.1tr / $34.4 bn En terpr is e v a lu e: | Revenue (NT$ mn) EBITD A (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) N debt/EBITD A (ex le as C R OC I (%) | 12/25 131,240.9 25,446.9 4.38 30.8 2.3 1.5 | 12/26E 188,516.3 47,145.7 16.58 46.1 10.1 0.9 | 12/27E 299,173.8 97,142.6 | 12/28E 424,900.4 |
| 152,695.0 | |||||
| NT$1.1tr / $33. 8bn | 40.33 | 66.82 | |||
| 3 m AD T V : NT$ 25 . 8bn / $ 8 11. 5mn n | 18.9 | 11.4 | |||
| Ta iw a | 7.6 | 5.5 | |||
| Ta iw a n El e c tr onic Com p on e n t s | 2.1 | 3.5 | |||
| M &A R a n k: 3 | e,X) (0.8) | (0.8) | (0.5) | (0.5) | |
| L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : N o | 8.6 | 18.6 | 28.3 | 36.4 | |
| FCF yield (%) (5.0) | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3.8 | ||
| 3/26 | 6/26E | 9/26E | 12/26E | ||
| EPS (NT$) 3.28 | 3.47 | 4.05 | 5.78 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 28 Jul 2026 close.
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