PDF 原檔：報告_GS_昇達科3491_20261101_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-02）
_001、_002 <40KB 亦逐張 Read；三張皆為估值／持股／評等類，公司頁依規則不嵌。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_昇達科3491_20261101_001.png |
31KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 6：UMT 12M forward PE 折線（約 2015-01 至 2026 年中），標示 +1stv 41.5x、avg. 29.2x、-1stv 16.9x；近期高點約 68x、尾端約 56x |
報告_GS_昇達科3491_20261101_002.png |
34KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 7：UMT QFII 外資持股比率折線（2021-01 至 2026 年中，來源 TEJ），起點 1%、2024 年初低點 3%、2026 年初高點 37%、2025 年中低點 14%、尾端 31% |
報告_GS_昇達科3491_20261101_003.png |
68KB | 真資料圖 | UMT（3491.TWO）Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023–2026，標示 Rating、Price target、Price target at removal，標註目標價含 2,208、2,513、2,557 等，疊加 Taiwan SE Weighted Index；資料至 2026-09-30） |
原始內容
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
UMT (3491.TWO): LEO satellite in expansion with dollar content increase; 3Q26 GM miss while NI beat on non-OP; Buy
UMT 3Q26 GM was at 49.9% (vs. 47.3%/ 55.6% in 3Q25/ 2Q26), or lower than our previous estimates of 59.6%, and we attribute it to product mix and seasonality. Management attributes the slower QoQ in 3Q26 to the order momentum and the transition period of LEO satellite business towards new platform. Due to improving Opex ratio and higher-than-expected non-OP, NI was up 207% YoY, or 29% higher than our previous estimates. We expect the company's 4Q26E to deliver both YoY and QoQ growth at 83%/ 82% to NT$1.5bn, with GM improvement on product delivery, new LEO satellite launches with enhanced satellite communication services/ applications, and gradual migration to the new generation of the platform. Maintain Buy.
UMT provides rectangular waveguides, which are conducting pipes with a rectangular cross-section used to guide the propagation of microwave or mmwave signals. Different shapes and combinations of waveguides can form various RF passive components, such as filter / diplexer, coupler, isolator, antenna, power amplifiers (PAs), etc. The company serves leading global LEO satellite operators, and its waveguides can be seen in LEO satellites / payloads (main), and gateways in ground stations.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 1: UMT 3Q26 result snapshot
| NT$ m | 3Q25 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act/ GS | Cons. | Act / Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 484 | 902 | 843 | -7% | 74% | 843 | 0% | 856 | -2% |
| GP | 229 | 502 | 421 | -16% | 84% | 512 | -18% | ||
| OP | 84 | 241 | 195 | -19% | 132% | 269 | -27% | ||
| Net income | 88 | 308 | 271 | -12% | 207% | 211 | 29% | 326 | -17% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 47.3% | 55.6% | 49.9% | 59.6% | |||||
| OPM | 17.4% | 26.8% | 23.2% | 31.9% | |||||
| NM | 18.2% | 34.1% | 32.1% | 25.0% | 38.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
New capacity in expansion: The company continues to expand its production scale to fulfill rising clients' orders from LEO satellite and innovative business. We expect to see growing LEO satellite revenues contribution from 75% in 2025 to 97% in 2028E. Management notes the company has started the planning of next-stage expansion, and will start to expand capacity in Taiwan, Vietnam and US sites from 4Q26E and onwards to diversify the global production sites, improve the product delivery capabilities, and supply elasticity.
Exhibit 2: We expect UMT Oct 2026 revenues to grow 49%/ 17% YoY/ MoM to NT$341m
UMT monthly/ quarterly revenues
| Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026E | Nov 2026E | Dec 2026E | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 230 | 321 | 292 | 341 | 406 | 784 | 902 | 843 | 1,531 |
| YoY | 82% | 93% | 52% | 49% | 42% | 145% | 76% | 74% | 83% |
| MoM/QoQ | -10% | 40% | -9% | 17% | 19% | 93% | -12% | -7% | 82% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 277 | 311 | 374 | 966 | 926 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | -17% | 3% | -22% | -7% | -9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in UMT 3Q26 earnings and revise down earnings by 5%/ 10%/ 9% in 2026-28E mainly on lower GM in 2026-28E by 3.8ppts~3.9ppts, reflecting longer time of transition to new LEO satellites platform, while we expect to see continuous GM improvement ahead on rising LEO satellite buisness carrying higher GM.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 4,296 | 4,296 | 0% | 9,179 | 9,179 | 0% | 12,967 | 12,967 | 0% |
| GP | 2,569 | 2,407 | -6% | 5,974 | 5,596 | -6% | 8,557 | 8,064 | -6% |
| OP | 1,429 | 1,268 | -11% | 3,628 | 3,250 | -10% | 5,263 | 4,770 | -9% |
| Net income | 1,256 | 1,198 | -5% | 2,871 | 2,573 | -10% | 4,161 | 3,768 | -9% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 59.8% | 56.0% | 65.1% | 61.0% | 66.0% | 62.2% | |||
| OPM | 33.3% | 29.5% | 39.5% | 35.4% | 40.6% | 36.8% | |||
| NM | 29.2% | 27.9% | 31.3% | 28.0% | 32.1% | 29.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our target price based on a discounted P/E, and based on 2029E (methodology unchanged). We continue to derive the target P/E multiple from the average PEG&M ratio of peers in the satellite supply chain, and we remove outliers (telecom operators who face competition from LEO satellite operators). Our target 2029E discounted P/E multiple is at 35.1x (vs. previously at 37.1x) which is based on peers' avg. PEG&M, and UMT's 2029-30E avg. NI YoY and OPM, due to lower avg. OPM in 2029-30E at 38% (vs. previously at 42%). We apply the 35.1x multiple to 2029E EPS and e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
discount it back to 2027E via a COE of 7.8% (no change). Our 12m target price is at NT$2,188 (vs. previously at NT$2,549), implying 59x 2027E P/E, which is above the company's average +1 stv. P/E of 40x, reflecting our positive view on UMT's product mix upgrade toward LEO satellites. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 4: UMT discounted P/E
| (NT$ mn) - Milestones | 2022 - Telecom components | 2023 - Telecom components | 2024 - Telecom components | 2025 - LEO satellite launch accelerations | 2026E - LEO satellite launch accelerations | 2027E - LEO satellite launch accelerations | 2028E - LEO satellite launch accelerations | 2029E - LEO satellite users ramp up | 2030E - LEO satellite users ramp up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite revenues % | 15% | 15% | 43% | 59% | 80% | 91% | 94% | ||
| Revenue | 1,838 | 1,585 | 2,335 | 2,452 | 4,296 | 9,179 | 12,967 | 16,857 | 19,386 |
| YoY | 5% | -14% | 47% | 5% | 75% | 114% | 41% | 30% | 15% |
| Gross margin | 40.9% | 40.4% | 51.3% | 51.1% | 56.0% | 61.0% | 62.2% | 62.7% | 63.2% |
| Operating profit | 294 | 202 | 624 | 574 | 1,268 | 3,250 | 4,770 | 6,320 | 7,403 |
| YoY | 33% | -31% | 208% | -8% | 121% | 156% | 47% | 32% | 17% |
| Operating margin | 16% | 13% | 27% | 23% | 30% | 35% | 37% | 37% | 38% |
| Net profit | 271 | 200 | 547 | 518 | 1,198 | 2,573 | 3,768 | 5,005 | 5,863 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 4.34 | 3.12 | 8.27 | 7.56 | 17.33 | 37.21 | 54.51 | 72.40 | 84.81 |
| YoY | 15% | -26% | 173% | -5% | 131% | 115% | 46% | 33% | 17% |
| TP implied P/E | 504 | 702 | 264 | 290 | 126 | 59 | 40 | 30 | 26 |
| 2029E target P/E | 35.1 |
|---|---|
| Target multiple x EPS | 2,541 |
| Discounted back to 2027; TP (NTD) | 2,188.0 |
| Implied 2027 P/E | 59 |
| COE assumption | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.2 |
| Risk free | 1.6% |
| Market risk premium | 5.1% |
| COE | 7.8% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 5: The target P/E multiple is derived from peers' avg. PEG & M
| Valuation | 2029E P/E | 2029-30 avg. NI YoY | 2029-30 avg. OPM | PEG&M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMT | 35.1 | 25% | 38% | 0.56 |
| Peers | 2027E P/E | 2027/28 avg. NI YoY | 2027/28 avg. OPM | PEG&M |
| WNC | 17 | 15% | 5% | 0.85 |
| Compeq | 16 | 60% | 17% | 0.21 |
| Lite-On Tech | 19 | 49% | 15% | 0.29 |
| BT | 10 | 10% | 20% | 0.32 |
| Verizon | 10 | 9% | 25% | 0.27 |
| T-Mobile | 11 | 37% | 30% | 0.16 |
| Hon Hai | 11 | 15% | 3% | 0.64 |
| Avg. | 13 | 28% | 17% | 0.30 |
| Avg. w/o outliers | 13 | 13% | 9% | 0.56 |
Outliers are in grey; Compeq and Lite-On Tech are not covered and use Bloomberg consensus; price as of Oct 30, 2026
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 6: UMT 12M forward PE ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 7: UMT QFII holdings
Source: TEJ
Price target risks and methodology - UMT
Valuation: We use a discounted P/E methodology and apply a 35.1x target P/E multiple to UMT's 2029E EPS, discounting it back to 2027E at a COE of 7.8% (beta 1.2x, risk-free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), which leads to our 12-month target price of NT$2,188. The target P/E is based on the average PEG&M ratio of peers in the satellite supply chain. We are Buy-rated on UMT.
Key Risks: Slower-than-expected LEO satellite deployment; Potential competition from new-entrant suppliers; LEO satellite operators manufacturing in-house components.
| 3491.TWO | 12m Price Target: NT$2,188.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$2,188.00 | Price: NT$1,255.00 | Price: NT$1,255.00 | Upside: 74.3% | Upside: 74.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Buy | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |||
| Market cap: NT$83.0bn / $2.5bn | Market cap: NT$83.0bn / $2.5bn | Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 2,452.2 | 4,296.1 | 9,179.3 | 12,966.9 |
| Enterprise value: | Enterprise value: | Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 2,452.2 | 4,296.0 | 9,179.3 | 12,966.9 |
| NT$82.7bn / $2.5bn | NT$82.7bn / $2.5bn | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 687.4 | 1,406.5 | 3,399.5 | 4,927.8 |
| 3m ADTV: NT$2.3bn / $71.5mn | 3m ADTV: NT$2.3bn / $71.5mn | EPS (NT$) New | 7.56 | 17.33 | 37.21 | 54.51 |
| Taiwan | Taiwan | EPS (NT$) Old | 7.56 | 18.16 | 41.53 | 60.19 |
| Greater China Technology | Greater China Technology | P/E (X) | 54.8 | 72.4 | 33.7 | 23.0 |
| M&A Rank: 3 | M&A Rank: 3 | P/B (X) | 7.6 | 18.0 | 14.2 | 10.8 |
| Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: | Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: | Dividend yield (%) | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Yes | Yes | CROCI (%) | 13.1 | 29.7 | 50.2 | 65.7 |
| 9/26 | 12/26E | 3/27E | 6/27E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 3.92 | 5.30 | 6.45 | 8.10 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 30 Oct 2026 close.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]