PDF 原檔：報告_GS_昇達科3491_20261013_original.pdf
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67KB | 真資料圖 | UMT（3491.TWO）Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023-2026，標示 Rating、Price target、Price target at removal，目標價標註含 2,513、2,557 等，疊加 Taiwan SE Weighted Index；資料至 2026-09-30） |
原始內容
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
UMT (3491.TWO): LEO satellite to drive growth ahead; Sep rev +52% YoY while MoM decline on Aug pull-in; Buy
UMT delivered strong 3Q26E revenues growth of 74% YoY (or -7% MoM) to NT$843, while below our estimates, we attribute it to order momentum and the transition period of LEO satellite business towards the new platform. We remain positive and expect to see a rising revenues contribution from the LEO satellites business, and growing dollar content on the new platform, supporting both YoY and QoQ growth in 4Q26E revenue, along with GM improvement. Meanwhile, the company continues to work with multiple LEO satellite clients. We remain positive on UMT given (1) riding on the accelerating LEO satellite launches that enhance the satellite communication services and expand space applications, (2) increasing waveguide for LEO satellite dollar content given more bands are adopted per LEO satellite, and (3) waveguide end market expands from LEO satellite to AI data center for high-speed interconnection in scale up (report link). Maintain Buy.
UMT provides rectangular waveguides, which are conducting pipes with a rectangular cross-section used to guide the propagation of microwave or mmwave signals. Different shapes and combinations of waveguides can form various RF passive components, such as filter / diplexer, coupler, isolator, antenna, power amplifiers (PAs), etc. The company serves leading global LEO satellite operators, and its waveguides can be seen in LEO satellites / payloads (main), and gateways in ground stations.
Exhibit 1: UMT revenues to grow at 74% CAGR in 2026-28E with rising LEO satellite contribution
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
3-month preview: The company's Sep revenues were up 52% YoY, or -9% MoM to NT$292m, while 22% below our estimates, and we attribute it to the product pull-in
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song +852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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during Aug, resulting in 3Q26 revenues up 74% YoY to NT$843m. With the gradual ramp up of clients' new platform, we expect to see sequential MoM growth ahead, with Oct/ Nov revenues up 17%/ 19% MoM to NT$341m/ NT$406m, driven by a rising contribution from the LEO satellites.
Exhibit 2: We expect UMT Oct 2026 revenues to grow 49%/ 17% YoY/ MoM to NT$341m UMT monthly/ quarterly revenues
| Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026E | Nov 2026E | Dec 2026E | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 230 | 321 | 292 | 341 | 406 | 784 | 902 | 843 | 1,531 |
| YoY | 82% | 93% | 52% | 49% | 42% | 145% | 76% | 74% | 83% |
| MoM/QoQ | -10% | 40% | -9% | 17% | 19% | 93% | -12% | -7% | 82% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 277 | 311 | 374 | 966 | 926 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | -17% | 3% | -22% | -7% | -9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in UMT 3Q26 revenues and revise down earnings by 1%/ 1%/ 1% in 2026-28E mainly on lower revenues due to the momentum of product delivery, while we remain positive on the rising LEO satellite business exposure ahead.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 4,430 | 4,296 | -3% | 9,327 | 9,179 | -2% | 13,116 | 12,967 | -1% |
| GP | 2,627 | 2,569 | -2% | 6,041 | 5,974 | -1% | 8,625 | 8,557 | -1% |
| OP | 1,450 | 1,429 | -1% | 3,657 | 3,628 | -1% | 5,293 | 5,263 | -1% |
| Net income | 1,273 | 1,256 | -1% | 2,893 | 2,871 | -1% | 4,185 | 4,161 | -1% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 59.3% | 59.8% | 64.8% | 65.1% | 65.8% | 66.0% | |||
| OPM | 32.7% | 33.3% | 39.2% | 39.5% | 40.4% | 40.6% | |||
| NM | 28.7% | 29.2% | 31.0% | 31.3% | 31.9% | 32.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our target price based on a discounted P/E, and based on 2029E (methodology unchanged). We continue to derive the target P/E multiple from the average PEG&M ratio of peers in the satellite supply chain, and we remove outliers (telecom operators who face competition from LEO satellite operators). Our target 2029E discounted P/E multiple is at 37.1x (vs. previously at 37.0x) which is based on peers' avg. PEG&M, and UMT's 2029-30E avg. NI YoY and OPM, due to higher avg. OPM in 2029-30E at 42% (vs. previously at 41%). We apply the 37.1x multiple to 2029E EPS and discount it back to 2027E via a COE of 7.8% (no change). Our 12m target price is at NT$2,549 (vs. previously at NT$2,557), implying 61x 2027E P/E, which is above the company's average +1 stv. P/E of 40x, reflecting our positive view on UMT's product mix upgrade toward LEO satellites. Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 4: UMT discounted P/E
| (NT$ mn) - Milestones | 2022 - Telecom components | 2023 - Telecom components | 2024 - Telecom components | 2025 - LEO satellite launch accelerations | 2026E - LEO satellite launch accelerations | 2027E - LEO satellite launch accelerations | 2028E - LEO satellite launch accelerations | 2029E - LEO satellite users ramp up | 2030E - LEO satellite users ramp up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite revenues % | 15% | 15% | 43% | 59% | 80% | 91% | 94% | ||
| Revenue | 1,838 | 1,585 | 2,335 | 2,452 | 4,296 | 9,179 | 12,967 | 16,857 | 19,385 |
| YoY | 5% | -14% | 47% | 5% | 75% | 114% | 41% | 30% | 15% |
| Gross margin | 40.9% | 40.4% | 51.3% | 51.1% | 59.8% | 65.1% | 66.0% | 66.5% | 67.0% |
| Operating profit | 294 | 202 | 624 | 574 | 1,429 | 3,628 | 5,263 | 6,961 | 8,140 |
| YoY | 33% | -31% | 208% | -8% | 149% | 154% | 45% | 32% | 17% |
| Operating margin | 16% | 13% | 27% | 23% | 33% | 40% | 41% | 41% | 42% |
| Net profit | 271 | 200 | 547 | 518 | 1,256 | 2,871 | 4,161 | 5,516 | 6,450 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 4.34 | 3.12 | 8.27 | 7.56 | 18.16 | 41.53 | 60.19 | 79.79 | 93.30 |
| YoY | 15% | -26% | 173% | -5% | 142% | 129% | 45% | 33% | 17% |
| TP implied P/E | 587 | 818 | 308 | 337 | 140 | 61 | 42 | 32 | 27 |
2029E target P/E
37.1
Target multiple x EPS
2,960
Discounted back to 2027; TP (NTD)
2,549.0
Implied 2027 P/E
61
| COE assumption | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.2 |
| Risk free | 1.6% |
| Market risk premium | 5.1% |
| COE | 7.8% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 5: UMT peers comparison
Exhibit 6: UMT 12M forward PE ratio
| Valuation | 2029E P/E | 2029-30 avg. NI YoY | 2029-30 avg. OPM | PEG&M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMT | 37.1 | 25% | 42% | 0.56 |
| Peers | 2027E P/E | 2027/28 avg. NI YoY | 2027/28 avg. OPM | PEG&M |
| WNC | 17 | 15% | 5% | 0.85 |
| Compeq | 16 | 60% | 17% | 0.21 |
| Lite-On Tech | 19 | 49% | 15% | 0.29 |
| BT | 10 | 10% | 20% | 0.32 |
| Verizon | 10 | 9% | 25% | 0.27 |
| T-Mobile | 11 | 37% | 30% | 0.16 |
| Hon Hai | 11 | 15% | 3% | 0.64 |
| Avg. | 13 | 28% | 17% | 0.30 |
| Avg. w/o outliers | 13 | 13% | 9% | 0.56 |
Outliers are in grey; Compeq and Lite-On Tech are not covered and use Bloomberg consensus; price as of Oct 12, 2026
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Exhibit 7: UMT QFII holdings
Source: TEJ
Price target risks and methodology - UMT
Valuation: We use a discounted P/E methodology and apply a 37.1x target P/E multiple to UMT's 2029E EPS, discounting it back to 2027E at a COE of 7.8% (beta 1.2x, risk-free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), which leads to our 12-month target price of NT$2,549. The target P/E is based on the average PEG&M ratio of peers in the satellite supply chain. We are Buy-rated on UMT.
Key Risks: Slower-than-expected LEO satellite deployment; Potential competition from new-entrant suppliers; LEO satellite operators manufacturing in-house components.
| 3491.TWO | 12m Price Target: NT$2,549.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$2,549.00 | Price: NT$1,525.00 | Price: NT$1,525.00 | Upside: 67.1% | Upside: 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | GS Forecast | |||||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |||
| Market cap: NT$100.9bn / $3.2bn Enterprise value: NT$100.6bn / $3.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.5bn / $77.1mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: | Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 2,452.2 | 4,296.0 | 9,179.3 | 12,966.9 | |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 2,452.2 | 4,430.4 | 9,327.0 | 13,115.7 | ||
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 687.4 | 1,567.3 | 3,778.1 | 5,420.9 | ||
| EPS (NT$) New | 7.56 | 18.16 | 41.53 | 60.19 | ||
| EPS (NT$) Old | 7.56 | 18.41 | 41.84 | 60.53 | ||
| P/E (X) | 54.8 | 84.0 | 36.7 | 25.3 | ||
| P/B (X) | 7.6 | 21.7 | 16.7 | 12.6 | ||
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | ||
| Yes | CROCI (%) | 13.1 | 31.0 | 55.5 | 72.6 | |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 4.45 | 3.05 | 7.00 | 7.20 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 12 Oct 2026 close.
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