PDF 原檔：報告_GS_旺矽6223_20260814_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-17）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260814_gs_mpi_009.png |
76KB | 真資料圖 | 「Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history」雙軸圖：股價（灰線）＋目標價階梯（藍點，標示 1000/1140/1420/2000/2250/3300/3750/8800 等歷次 PT）疊加 Taiwan SE Weighted Index，2023-2026 |
260814_gs_mpi_001.png |
22KB | 真資料圖 | 「GS Factor Profile」橫條圖，四維度 Growth／Financial Returns／Multiple／Integrated，分別對比「6223.TWO relative to Asia ex. Japan Coverage」與「relative to Taiwan Semiconductor」百分位 |
260814_gs_mpi_002.png |
42KB | 真資料圖 | 「Price Performance」股價走勢圖（6223.TWO vs Taiwan SE Weighted Index，2025/10-2026/夏），下方列 3m/6m/12m 絕對與相對報酬率表 |
260814_gs_mpi_003.png |
39KB | 真資料圖 | 「Exhibit 1: MPI's revenue growth outlook」堆疊長條圖：Probe card／Equipment／Others 營收（NT$mn）2015-2028E，右軸疊加 YoY% 折線 |
260814_gs_mpi_004.png |
25KB | 真資料圖 | 「Exhibit 2: MPI's margin trend」GM(%) 與 OpM(%) 兩條折線，2015-2028E |
260814_gs_mpi_005.png |
46KB | 真資料圖 | 「Exhibit 4: Taiex vs. MPI」雙軸股價走勢圖，Aug-22 至 Aug-26 |
260814_gs_mpi_006.png |
43KB | 真資料圖 | 「Exhibit 6: Forward P/B」股價疊加 10x-30x P/B 估值帶折線圖 |
260814_gs_mpi_007.png |
44KB | 真資料圖 | 「Exhibit 5: Forward P/E」股價疊加 30x-70x P/E 估值帶折線圖 |
260814_gs_mpi_008.png |
30KB | 真資料圖 | 「Exhibit 7: P/B vs. ROE」ROE(%) 長條圖疊加 Forward P/B 折線，Aug-22 至 Aug-26 |
原始內容
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MPI Corp. (6223.TWO)
Robust growth momentum sustaining into 2027 driven by AI demand and potential CPO upside; reiterate Buy with TP at NT$8,500
6 22 3.TWO
12m Pri c e Target:
NT$8,500.00
Pri
c
e:
NT$6,440.00
Upside:
3 2 .0%
MPI hosted its 2Q26 analyst meeting on 14 August, post the release of results (see note) on 12 August. Management provided its latest near-term guidance, preliminary 2027 outlook, capacity expansion planning, and update on CPO progress. While there's no numeric guidance provided for 2027, Management sees 2027 as another strong year of growth, supported by sustained strength across existing probe card customers and new customer penetration. Management also indicated that they are seeing signi fi cant growing pin count trend especially within AI/HPC customers with pin count per card rising to 30k+ in 2027, vs. mainstream around 20-30k in 2026, with one customer adopting an even more advanced solution for micro-bump that requires probe card with pin count exceeding 40k. Overall, we remain positive on both MPI's revenue growth and GM into 2027, underpinned by signi fi cant market share gains with a new US CPU customer, much stronger MEMS revenue contribution, in-house PCB production ramp, and emerging CPO contribution. We maintain our 12m TP at NT$8,500, and with c.32% implied upside, we reiterate our Buy rating on MPI.
Revenue and GM set to rise on new product ramp in 2H26
Management is now guiding 3Q/4Q26 revenue to grow 0-5%/5-10% QoQ, o ff a high base in 2Q26 (2Q26 revenue +33.1% QoQ vs. guidance of +10-20% QoQ). We believe the sequential growth into 4Q26 should be largely driven by sustained AI/HPC demand across both VPC and MEMS, particularly as a newly penetrated US CPU customer begins to ramp in 4Q26. On margins, management expects 3Q26 GM to recover toward 1Q26 levels (59.4%), with 4Q26 GM fl at to potentially higher vs. 3Q26, which we attribute to stronger revenue contribution from MEMS-related solutions and price hikes. Notably, MPI said they have already raised their CPC pricing by 20% to re fl ect higher material costs, while we note that MPI already removed the 10% pricing rebate for both VPC and MEMS products, with further potential price hikes depending on
BUY
Evelyn Yu
+886(2)2730-4187 | evelyn.yu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Ryan Huang, CFA
+886(2)2730-4084 | ryan.huang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$606.8bn / $18.9bn
Enterprise value: NT$604.2bn / $18.8bn
3m ADTV: NT$6.5bn / $204.5mn
Taiwan
Taiwan Semiconductor
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$ mn) | 13,371.2 | 21,581.1 | 44,335.6 | 64,887.7 |
| E BITDA (NT$ mn) | 4,566.2 | 8,684.5 | 20,163.0 | 30,655.1 |
| E PS (NT$) | 33.65 | 66.61 | 155.77 | 238.79 |
| P/ E (X) | 36.2 | 96.7 | 41.3 | 27.0 |
| P/B (X) | 8.2 | 33.4 | 21.2 | 14.8 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| N debt/ E BITDA (ex lease,X) | (0.6) | (0.3) | (0.3) | (0.5) |
| CROCI (%) | 21.2 | 44.4 | 63.1 | 74.3 |
| F C F yield (%) | (1.6) | 0.4 | 1.2 | 3.0 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| E PS (NT$) | 15.55 | 17.75 | 20.77 | 26.30 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
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BUY
MPI Corp. (6223.TWO)
Rating since May 25, 2025
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 36.2 | 96.7 | 41.3 | 27.0 |
| P/B (X) | 8.2 | 33.4 | 21.2 | 14.8 |
| FCF yield (%) | (1.6) | 0.4 | 1.2 | 3.0 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 24.6 | 72.3 | 31.0 | 20.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 24.6 | 72.3 | 31.0 | 20.1 |
| CROCI (%) | 21.2 | 44.4 | 63.1 | 74.3 |
| ROE (%) | 26.6 | 39.0 | 62.8 | 64.5 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (18.9) | (14.2) | (20.6) | (34.3) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (18.9) | (14.2) | (20.6) | (34.3) |
| Interest co v er (X) | 42.2 | 118.8 | 279.0 | 433.4 |
| Days in v entory outst , sales | 115.9 | 129.6 | 114.6 | 109.9 |
| Recei v able days | 62.4 | 58.9 | 56.3 | 61.0 |
| Days p ayable outstandin g | 219.5 | 256.5 | 248.2 | 259.9 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 21.8 | 34.5 | 51.3 | 54.7 |
| Turno v er (X) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| L e v era g e (X) | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| G ross cas h in v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 17 , 056.3 | 21 , 827.6 | 30 , 413.6 | 36 , 295.2 |
| A v era g e ca p ital e mp loyed (NT $ ) | 9 , 702.6 | 14 , 020.4 | 19 , 903.5 | 25 , 842.0 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 148.79 | 192.88 | 303.45 | 436.54 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 31.5 | 61.4 | 105.4 | 46.4 |
| EBITDA growth | 50.3 | 90.2 | 132.2 | 52 |
| EPS growth | 37.8 | 97.9 | 133.9 | 53.3 |
| DPS growth | 37.5 | 105.4 | 133.9 | 53.3 |
| EBIT margin | 28.2 | 35.4 | 42.8 | 45.1 |
| EBITDA margin | 34.1 | 40.2 | 45.5 | 47.2 |
| Net income margin | 23.8 | 30.2 | 34.4 | 36.1 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
Source: FactSet. Price as of 14 Aug 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu | 13,371 . 2 | 21,581 . 1 | 44,335 . 6 | 64,887 . 7 |
| e Cost of goods sold | (5,943 . 4) | (8,722 . 4) | (16,758 . 5) | (23,569 . 7) |
| SG& A | (2,384 . 5) | (3,380 . 7) | (5,666 . 4) | (8,049 . 3) |
| R&D | (1,276 . 2) | (1,814 . 2) | (2,951 . 5) | (4,000 . 6) |
| . ) | (26 . 0) | -- | -- | |
| Other operating inc . /(exp E BITDA | 7 . 4 4, 566 . 2 | 8 , 68 4. 5 | 2 0, 16 3.0 | 30, 655 . 1 |
| Depreciation& amortization | (791 . 7) | (1,046 . 8) | (1,203 . 6) | (1,387 . 0) |
| E BIT | 3, 77 4. 5 | 7 , 6 3 7 . 8 | 18 ,9 5 9.3 | 2 9, 268 . 1 |
| Net interest inc . /(exp . ) | (13 . 5) | (11 . 8) | (11 . 5) | (11 . 4) |
| Income/(loss) from associates Pre-ta xp r ofi t | -- 3, 8 4 1 . 1 | -- 8 , 128 . 7 | -- 1 9, 127 . 8 | -- 2 9,43 6 . 7 |
| Provision for taxes | (665 . 7) | (1,602 . 6) | (3,865 . 3) | (6,039 . 7) |
| Minority interest | 1 . 3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Preferred dividends | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . (p re-e xc e p t ion a ls) | 3,39 7 .0 | |||
| Post-tax exceptionals | 3, 176 . 6 -- | 6 , 526 . 1 -- | 15 , 262 . 5 -- | 2 -- |
| N et inc . (pos t-e xc e p t ion a ls) | 3, 176 . 6 33. 65 | 6 , 526 . 1 66 . 61 | 15 , 262 . 5 155 . 77 | 2 3,39 7 .0 2 3 8 . 7 9 |
| E P S(b a sic , p re-e xc e p t ) (N T $) E P S(dilu te d , p re-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 33. 65 | 66 . 61 | 155 . 77 | 2 3 8 . 7 9 |
| E P S(b a sic , pos t-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 33. 65 | 66 . 61 | 155 . 77 | 2 3 8 . 7 9 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pos t-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 65 | 66 . 61 | 155 . 77 | |
| DPS (NT$) | 33. | 2 3 8 . 7 9 | ||
| 22 . 00 | 45 . 20 | 105 . 70 | 162 . 04 | |
| Div . payout ratio (%) | 67 . 9 | |||
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | 65 . 4 | 67 . 9 | 67 . 9 | ______ |
| C a sh& c a sh equiv a lents | 12/25 5,437.4 | 12/26E 5,3 9 6. 9 | 12/27E 8,848.6 | 12/28E 17,3 9 4.2 |
| Accounts receiv a ble | 2,47 9 . 9 | 4,480.1 | 9 ,1 9 3.2 | 12,508. 9 |
| Inventory | 5,011.4 | 10,310.3 | 17,542.1 | 21,525.0 |
| Other current a ssets | 388. 9 1 | 512.8 | 512.8 3 6 ,09 6 . 7 | 512.8 ,940.9 |
| Total c u rrent assets | 3,3 17 . 6 | 2 0, 7 00. 1 | 51 | |
| Net PP&E Net int a ngibles | 7,72 9 .4 581.3 | 9 ,426.3 4 9 3.5 | 11,401.4 354.8 | 13,1 9 7.7 211.5 |
| Tot a l investments | 668.5 | 54 9 .2 | 54 9 .2 | 54 9 |
| Other long-term a ssets | 2,387.4 | .2 | ||
| Total assets | 1,706.1 2 4,00 2 . 8 | 2,387.4 33, 556 . 5 | 5 0, 78 9. 5 | 2,387.4 68 , 286 . 7 |
| 4,03 9 . 9 | 8,217.4 | 14,576.3 | 18, 99 | |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 850.0 | 3.3 | ||
| Short-term debt Short-term le a se li a bilities | 1,350.0 | 850.0 -- | -- | 850.0 -- |
| Other current li a bilities | -- 2,17 9 .5 | 3,1 9 0.2 | 3,230.2 18 , 656 . 6 | 3,270.2 2 3, 11 3. 5 |
| Total c u rrent liabilities | 7 , 56 9.4 | 12 , 257 . 7 | ||
| Long-term debt Long-term le a se li a | 1,337.2 | 1,860.6 | 1,860.6 | 1,860.6 |
| bilities Other long-term li a bilities | -- | -- | -- 53 9 .6 | -- 53 9 .6 |
| liabilities | 53 9 .6 | 2 ,400. 2 | 2 ,400. 2 | |
| Total long-term | 517.7 1 , 85 4.9 | |||
| Total liabilities Preferred sh a res | 9,4 2 4. 2 -- | 2 ,400. 2 1 4, 657 . 8 -- | 21 ,0 56 . 7 -- | 25 , 51 3. 7 -- |
| Tot a l commonequity Minority interest | 14,578.6 | 18,8 9 8.7 | 2 9 ,732.7 0.0 | 42,773.0 -- |
| Total liabilities &eq | 0.0 4,00 2 . | 0.0 33, 556 . 5 | 5 0, 78 9. 5 | 68 , 286 . 7 |
| u ity Net debt, a djusted | 2 8 (2,750.2) | (2,686.4) | (6,138.0) | |
| (14,683.6) | ||||
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) | __________ | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
| Net income D&Aadd-back | 12/25 3,17 6 . 6 791.7 | 12/26E 6 ,52 6 .1 1,04 6 .8 | 15,2 6 2.5 1,203. 6 | 23,397.0 1,387.0 |
| Minority interest add-back Net (inc)/dec w orking | (1.3) (990.8) | -- (3,121.5) | -- (5,58 6 | -- |
| capital Other operating cash flo w | (938.2) | 1,049.3 | .0) -- | (2,881.7) |
| Cash flow from operations | 2 ,03 8 .0 | 5 , 5 00. | 1 0, 88 0. 1 | -- 21 ,90 2 .3 |
| 8 | ||||
| Capital expenditures Acquisitions | (3,881.3) (417.7) | (2,71 6 .9) (710.9) | (3,000.0) -- | (3,000.0) -- |
| Divestitures | -- | -- | -- | |
| -- | ||||
| Others | 223.7 | 28.5 | -- | |
| Cash flow from investing | (4,0 75 .4) | 2 ) | -- (3,000.0) | (3,000.0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | (3,399. | -- | |
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | (1,507.7) | -- (2,155. 6 ) | -- (4,428.5) | (10,35 6 .7) -- |
| Inc/(dec) in debt Other financing cash flo | 4,050.0 | 38.0 | -- 0.0 | 0.0 |
| w s Cash flow from financing | 1,237.5 3, 77 9. 7 | (24.4) ( 2 , 1 4 2 .0) | (4,4 28 . 5 ) | 0,3 56 . 7 ) |
| Total cash flow | 1 , 7 4 2 .3 | (40. 5 ) | 3,4 51 . 7 | ( 1 8 , 5 4 5 . 6 |
| Free cash flo w | (1,843.3) | 2,783.9 | 18,902.3 | |
| 7,880.1 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
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market dynamics. Overall, we model 3Q26E/4Q26E revenue growth of 10.7%/14.3% QoQ, with GM of 59.8%/60.4%.
Strong growth momentum likely sustain into 2027
Looking into 2027, management remains constructive on probe card demand and expects strong momentum in 2026 to sustain into 2027. We remain positive on MPI's growth outlook, driven by 1) a strong ramp of several large-scale MEMS/VPC projects across both AI ASIC and networking customers; 2) signi fi cant market share gains with a new US CPU customer, which could potentially become MPI's largest single customer in 2027; 3) continued content value growth across generations, with management seeing pin count per probe card rising to 30k+ in 2027, vs. 20-30k in 2026, and one customer adopting an even more advanced solution for micro-bump testing; and 4) emerging CPO opportunities. On the margin front, management cited rising MEMS contribution and in-house PCB production as key support for GM in 2027, with FX a swing factor given that around 70% of MPI's revenue is denominated in USD. Net net, we expect MPI's revenue to grow 10% YoY, with GM improving to 62.2% in 2027E.
Capacity guidance maintained, but we see further upside
Management has maintained its previous capacity expansion roadmap, guiding VPC/MEMS monthly pin capacity to reach 2mn/3.5mn by 4Q26, and indicated that MEMS capacity additions in 2027 could match or exceed the 2026 expansion pace. However, as momentum from AI GPU/ASIC/CPU customers continues to strengthen, we see a high likelihood that MPI will pursue an even more aggressive MEMS capacity expansion plan in 2027, with several large-scale MEMS projects for ASIC, CPU, and AI-related applications ramping up simultaneously. Therefore, we continue to expect MPI's capacity expansion to outpace its prior guidance, with VPC/MEMS capacity reaching 2mn/5mn pins per month by end-2026E and 2.5mn/8.0mn pins per month by end-2027E.
CPO emerging as a key equipment growth driver into 2027
CPO remained one of the most discussed topics at today's meeting. On Insertion 2, management expects quali fi cation results in late 3Q26/early 4Q26; we believe MPI has likely completed on-site quali fi cation and is now shipping to clients' overseas production sites for further quali fi cation. For Insertion 3, MPI will begin shipments in 4Q26 to 4-5 international customers spanning foundry, OSAT, and fabless, with volume production targeted for 1H27. We believe MPI's competitive positioning remains favorable, as it is one of the few vendors capable of o ff ering both optical and electrical testing solutions. As such, we continue to see CPO as a key potential upside for MPI's equipment business in 2027 and beyond, and we now model MPI's CPO-related business to potentially contribute a mid-single-digit % and a high-single-digit % of total revenue in 2027E/2028E, respectively.
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Exhibit 1: MPI's revenue growth outlook
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: MPI's P&L overview
| 1Q26 | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 3,933 | 5,233 | 5,793 | 6,621 | 8,028 | 9,764 | 12,129 | 14,415 | 21,581 | 44,336 | 64,888 |
| Gross profit | 2,338 | 3,055 | 3,466 | 4,000 | 4,880 | 5,988 | 7,567 | 9,143 | 12,859 | 27,577 | 41,318 |
| Operating profit | 1,273 | 1,802 | 2,098 | 2,465 | 3,182 | 3,961 | 5,208 | 6,608 | 7,638 | 18,959 | 29,268 |
| Net income | 1,227 | 1,524 | 1,739 | 2,035 | 2,577 | 3,182 | 4,190 | 5,314 | 6,526 | 15,262 | 23,397 |
| EPS (NT$) | 12.53 | 15.55 | 17.75 | 20.77 | 26.30 | 32.47 | 42.76 | 54.23 | 66.61 | 155.77 | 238.79 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||||
| GM | 59.4% | 58.4% | 59.8% | 60.4% | 60.8% | 61.3% | 62.4% | 63.4% | 59.6% | 62.2% | 63.7% |
| OpM | 32.4% | 34.4% | 36.2% | 37.2% | 39.6% | 40.6% | 42.9% | 45.8% | 35.4% | 42.8% | 45.1% |
| NM | 31.2% | 29.1% | 30.0% | 30.7% | 32.1% | 32.6% | 34.5% | 36.9% | 30.2% | 34.4% | 36.1% |
| YoY (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 39.0% | 58.9% | 69.7% | 72.6% | 104.1% | 86.6% | 109.4% | 117.7% | 61.4% | 105.4% | 46.4% |
| Gross profit | 44.0% | 59.2% | 90.2% | 93.9% | 108.7% | 96.0% | 118.3% | 128.6% | 73.1% | 114.5% | 49.8% |
| Operating profit | 51.5% | 67.0% | 134.2% | 156.9% | 150.0% | 119.8% | 148.2% | 168.1% | 102.3% | 148.2% | 54.4% |
| Net income | 69.6% | 142.5% | 98.4% | 114.8% | 110.0% | 108.8% | 140.9% | 161.0% | 105.4% | 133.9% | 53.3% |
| EPS | 63.2% | 133.2% | 90.9% | 108.0% | 109.9% | 108.8% | 140.9% | 161.0% | 97.9% | 133.9% | 53.3% |
| QoQ (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 2.5% | 33.1% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 21.2% | 21.6% | 24.2% | 18.8% | |||
| Gross profit | 13.3% | 30.7% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 22.0% | 22.7% | 26.4% | 20.8% | |||
| Operating profit | 32.7% | 41.5% | 16.5% | 17.5% | 29.1% | 24.5% | 31.5% | 26.9% | |||
| Net income | 29.5% | 24.1% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 26.6% | 23.5% | 31.7% | 26.8% | |||
| EPS | 25.4% | 24.1% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 26.6% | 23.5% | 31.7% | 26.8% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: MPI's margin trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Exhibit 4: Taiex vs. MPI
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 6: Forward P/B
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 5: Forward P/E
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 7: P/B vs. ROE
Source: Bloomberg
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