PDF 原檔：報告_GS_新日興3376_20260913_original.pdf
已驗證圖片清單（Step 2.5）
8 張圖分別為全球折疊機滲透率、智慧手機價格帶出貨、SZS 鉸鏈供應地位與首評摘要卡。核心數字（滲透率 3.6%／5.9%／6.8%、月營收預估、獲利調整）內文已有表格，圖片不另嵌入。
原始內容
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
SZS (3376.TW): Foldable iPhone to drive growth ahead; Reiterate Buy with TP raised to NT$300
With roll-out of foldable iPhone (iPhone DUO) with new form factor and a ff ordable price starting from US$1,999 (Report link), we remain constructive on SZS and view the company as one of the key bene fi ciaries as the global leading hinge supplier. We expect global foldable phones penetration rate to reach 3.6%/ 5.9% in 2026E/ 27E (vs. 1.6% in 2025), with consumer preference of the latest technology and premium smartphone models. The foldable iPhone's hinge has more than 100 tiny precision components with high dollar content, and we see SZS has accumulated know-how and R&D capabilities on hinge products, capacity expansion, and in-house MIM (Mental Injection Molding). Reiterate Buy. Read more: SZS Initiation; Introducing foldable phone TAM; Smartphones TAM update.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
eaiullo.oeols delcaulo sesuppner
SZS is hinge supplier for
Apple Macbook and iMac
(Monitor)
Exhibit 1: Global foldable phone penetration to reach 3.6%/ 5.9%/ 6.8% in 2026-28E
SZS provides hinges for airpods charging casing
canbll tooce mmtlatroll
Goldman Research sachs
DONITY BESEARCE I AOM: 22. 2004 1 13.25P6 -ET|
Exhibit 2: Global smartphones: shipments by price band
Tatwan Technology
Foldable, Al server and satellite early-stage product
cycles - initiate SZS, Chenbro, WNC at Buy
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: SZS is the leading hinge supplier
Source: Company data
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, IDC
Exhibit 4: SZS initiation
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
3-month preview: SZS Aug revenues were down 10% YoY, or up 1% MoM to NT$820m, while 38% below our estimates, and we attribute it to the muted growth of wearable hinges and Notebook hinges. However, we remain positive on company's new projects, and expects to see MoM/ QoQ growth recovery ahead on clients' new products launch and better seasonality to re fl ect on company's growth.
Exhibit 5: We expect SZS Sep 2026 revenues to grow 92% YoY/ 92% MoM to NT$1.6bn
SZS monthly/ quarterly revenues
| 26-Jun | 26-Jul | 26-Aug | Sep-26 (E) | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 922 | 811 | 820 | 1,578 | 1,815 | 2,088 | 2,353 | 2,631 | 3,210 |
| Rev YoY | -5% | -10% | -10% | 92% | 140% | 194% | -16% | -10% | 72% |
| Rev MoM/QoQ | 15% | -12% | 1% | 92% | 15% | 15% | 1% | 12% | 74% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 1,314 | 2,407 | 2,717 | ||||||
| Act vs. GS | -38% | -2% | -3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Earnings revision: We factor in SZS Aug revenues, revise down 2026E earnings by 11%, revise up 2027E earnings by 1%, and keep 2028E earnings largely unchanged. We revise down 2026E revenues mainly on lower-than-expected Aug revenues, considering longer time for new projects to re fl ect on company's revenues/ earnings. We revise up 2027 earnings mainly on higher revenues, re fl ecting our positive view on SZS as the key bene fi ciary of rising foldable phones.
Exhibit 6: Earnings revision
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT$m | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% |
| Revenues | 20,508 | 18,675 | -9% | 28,240 | 28,511 | 1% | 33,290 | 33,313 | 0% |
| GP | 3,636 | 3,261 | -10% | 5,581 | 5,630 | 1% | 6,620 | 6,617 | 0% |
| OP | 1,771 | 1,535 | -13% | 3,457 | 3,485 | 1% | 4,123 | 4,118 | 0% |
| Pre-tax income | 2,102 | 1,866 | -11% | 3,810 | 3,850 | 1% | 4,472 | 4,451 | 0% |
| Net income | 1,471 | 1,306 | -11% | 2,667 | 2,695 | 1% | 3,131 | 3,116 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 17.7% | 17.5% | -0.3ppts | 19.8% | 19.7% | 0ppts | 20.0% | 19.9% | -0.2ppts |
| OPM | 8.6% | 8.2% | -0.4ppts | 12.2% | 12.2% | 0ppts | 12.5% | 12.4% | -0.2ppts |
| NM | 7.2% | 7.0% | -0.2ppts | 9.4% | 9.5% | 0ppts | 9.5% | 9.4% | -0.1ppts |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We are Buy rated on SZS with a 12-month target price of NT$300 (vs. previously at NT$286) on lower earnings. Our TP is based on a 21.9x 2027E P/E (vs. previously at 21.0x), which is derived from the updated sector correlation of 2027E P/E vs. 2027E-28E EPS YoY (Exhibit 8), with re-rating supported by positive view on rising foldable phone penetration. The 21.9x 2027E P/E is also within SZS's trading range since Aug 2019.
Exhibit 7: SZS P&L Summary
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 10,068 | 13,327 | 10,723 | 18,675 | 28,511 | 33,313 | 2,806 | 2,940 | 2,650 | 2,328 | 2,353 | 2,631 | 3,210 | 10,481 |
| Gross profit | 1,805 | 2,462 | 1,496 | 3,261 | 5,630 | 6,617 | 450 | 417 | 361 | 268 | 336 | 258 | 600 | 2,067 |
| OP income | 895 | 1,252 | 167 | 1,535 | 3,485 | 4,118 | 159 | 92 | (0) | (84) | (10) | (82) | 356 | 1,270 |
| Pretax income | 1,163 | 1,875 | 537 | 1,866 | 3,850 | 4,477 | 279 | (32) | 181 | 109 | 43 | 43 | 439 | 1,341 |
| Net income | 807 | 1,359 | 318 | 1,306 | 2,695 | 3,134 | 215 | (90) | 116 | 77 | 30 | 62 | 307 | 939 |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.29 | 7.19 | 1.64 | 6.79 | 13.69 | 15.92 | 1.12 | (0.46) | 0.59 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Ratios | ||||||||||||||
| R&D to rev | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Opex ratio | 9.0% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| Tax rate | 30.6% | 27.5% | 40.8% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 22.7% | -181.4% | 36.2% | 29.6% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 17.9% | 18.5% | 14.0% | 17.5% | 19.7% | 19.9% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| Operating margin | 8.9% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.0% | -3.6% | -0.4% | -3.1% | 11.1% | 12.1% |
| Net margin | 8.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | -3.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -15% | 32% | -20% | 74% | 53% | 17% | -3% | -16% | -28% | -29% | -16% | -10% | 21% | 350% |
| Gross profit | -28% | 36% | -39% | 118% | 73% | 18% | -12% | -36% | -52% | -50% | -25% | -38% | 67% | 670% |
| OP income | -43% | 40% | -87% | 820% | 127% | 18% | -39% | -74% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Net income | -51% | 68% | -77% | 310% | 106% | 16% | -32% | na | -65% | -74% | -86% | na | 165% | 1121% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -15% | 5% | -10% | -12% | 1% | 12% | 22% | 227% | ||||||
| Gross profit | -17% | -7% | -14% | -26% | 25% | -23% | 133% | 244% | ||||||
| OP income | -23% | -42% | -101% | na | na | 695% | -536% | 256% | ||||||
| Net income | -28% | -142% | na | -34% | -61% | 109% | 395% | 206% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 8: Target multiple is derived from peers correlation between P/E and NI YoY
Non-covered company data from Eikon
Source: Eikon Datastream, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 10: SZS QFII holdings
Source: TEJ
Exhibit 9: SZS 12M forward P/E
Source: Re fi nitiv Eikon
Price Target Risks and Methodology - SZS
Valuation: We use a near-term P/E vs. EPS growth correlation to derive our target price for SZS, consistent with our Taiwan Technology coverage. Our target 2027E P/E multiple of 21.9x for SZS is based on the sector correlation of 2027E P/E vs. 2027-28E earnings growth. We thus derive our 12-month target price at NT$300. We are Buy rated. Key risks: Weaker-than-expected headset hinges demand; slower-than-expected foldable phone penetration; potential competition from more suppliers; soft market demand.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
3376.TW
12m Price Target:
NT$300.00
Price:
NT$183.00
Upside:
63.9%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market c ap: NT$34.5b n / $ 1 . 1 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$3 2 . 2 b n / $ 1 . 0 b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 86 3. 8mn / $ 27 . 1mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | Revenue (NT$m n ) N e w | 1 0, 72 3. 1 | 18 , 675 . 1 | 28 , 511 . 5 | 33,3 12 .9 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 10,723.1 | 20,507.5 | 28,239.5 | 33,290.4 | |
| EBITD A (NT$ mn) | 730.8 | 2,208.0 | 4,128.8 | 4,720.1 | |
| E PS(NT$) N e w | 1 . 6 4 | 6 . 7 9 | 1 3. 6 9 | 15 .9 2 | |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 1.64 | 7.66 | 13.55 | 15.90 | |
| P/E (X) | 132.7 | 26.9 | 13.4 | 11.5 | |
| P/B (X) | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Dividend yield (%) | 0.7 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | |
| CROCI (%) | 0.9 | 11.3 | 18.6 | 21.0 | |
| 6/26 | 9 /26E | 12/26E | 3 /27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | 0.31 | 1.52 | 4.81 | 2.90 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 11 Sep 2026 close.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]