PDF 原檔：報告_GS_弘塑3131_20261103_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-04）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
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21KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：GPTC 毛利率（GM）與營業利益率（OpM）趨勢，2024–2028E；GM 約由 45% 降至 2026E 約 37% 後回升至 2028E 約 42.5%，OpM 約 22%→25%→21%→28%→32% |
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34KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5：GPTC 營收成長展望，堆疊長條 2024–2028E（NT$mn；設備製造、化學材料、軟體銷售、設備銷售代理、其他）與 YoY 折線（右軸）；設備製造約 2,000（2024）→4,000（2025）→6,000（2026E）→10,400（2027E）→14,800（2028E），總營收 2028E 約 17,800 |
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41KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 6：Taiex（灰線）與 GPTC 股價（深綠線，右軸 NT$）2016/11–2026/11；GPTC 2026 年高點約 3,800 後急跌至約 1,750 |
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33KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 7：GPTC 股價與 15x／25x／35x／45x／55x forward P/E 帶，2016–2026；股價近期跌至約 15x 至 25x 帶間 |
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41KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 8：GPTC 股價與 10x／13x／16x／19x／22x forward P/B 帶，2016–2026 |
報告_GS_弘塑3131_20261103_006.png |
26KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 9：ROE（灰色階梯面積，左軸 %）與 forward P/B（深藍線，右軸）；ROE 2025 年起升至約 60%+，P/B 高點約 32x 後回落至約 14x |
報告_GS_弘塑3131_20261103_007.png |
40KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 10：GPTC QFII 持股比例折線，2011–2026；由 0% 升至 2026 年高點 40%，最新約 35% |
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71KB | 文字卡 | GS 披露頁：GPTC 評等與目標價歷史（淺藍線股價、深藍方塊目標價 1,800／1,900／2,000／2,200／2,400／3,500／4,000／4,500／4,200，灰線為加權指數） |
原始內容
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Grand Process Technology Corp. (3131.TWO): SoIC / PLP to support future GM enhancement; 3Q26 GM miss
GPTC reported its 3Q26 preliminary results. Revenues was pre-announced, while GM came in at 36.6% (down 2.3ppt QoQ; down 4.2ppt YoY), below GSe/cons. of 39.7%/40.6%, which we attribute to an unfavorable product mix. Opex ratio further improved to 14.6% (vs. 17.7% in 2Q26), better than our / Bloomberg consensus estimates of 15.1% / 16.3%, leading OP income to +34% QoQ, or +54% YoY. Overall, the miss on GM leads EPS miss our / Bloomberg consensus by 9% / 14%. Despite 3Q26 GM miss, we believe GPTC's multi-year growth outlook remains intact, with continuous capacity increase to better capture the demand from CoWoS capacity expansion, along with product mix upgrade toward SoIC and PLP, carrying higher content value. Maintain Buy.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in 3Q26 results and cut EPS by 4% / 2% / 0% in 2026-28E, mainly on lower GM, as we slowdown the pace of product mix upgrade toward SoIC and PLP. Despite the cut, we continue to expect GM sequential enhancement, with 4Q26 GM up to 37.7% (vs. 36.6% in 3Q26) and up to 40.2% / 42.5% in 2027-28E, driven by rising SoIC and PLP contribution.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: Earnings revisions
| (NT$mn) | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff (%) | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff (%) | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,992 | 8,236 | 3.0% | 12,031 | 13,013 | 8.2% | 16,187 | 17,768 | 9.8% |
| Gross profit | 3,102 | 3,039 | -2.0% | 5,280 | 5,234 | -0.9% | 7,513 | 7,555 | 0.6% |
| Op. income | 1,816 | 1,749 | -3.7% | 3,723 | 3,661 | -1.7% | 5,679 | 5,698 | 0.3% |
| Net income | 1,803 | 1,720 | -4.6% | 2,977 | 2,922 | -1.8% | 4,507 | 4,517 | 0.2% |
| EPS (NT$) | 62.06 | 59.32 | -4.4% | 101.89 | 99.87 | -2.0% | 154.28 | 154.37 | 0.1% |
| GM | 38.8% | 36.9% | -1.9% | 43.9% | 40.2% | -3.7% | 46.4% | 42.5% | -3.9% |
| OpM | 22.7% | 21.2% | -1.5% | 30.9% | 28.1% | -2.8% | 35.1% | 32.1% | -3.0% |
| NM | 22.6% | 20.9% | -1.7% | 24.7% | 22.5% | -2.3% | 27.8% | 25.4% | -2.4% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: 3Q26 results summary
| 3Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q25 | %QoQ | %YoY | GS prev. | %Diff | Consensus | %Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | |||||||||
| Revenue | 2,221 | 1,727 | 1,494 | 28.7% | 48.7% | 2,132 | 4.2% | 2,256 | -1.5% |
| Gross profit | 813 | 671 | 608 | 21.1% | 33.6% | 847 | -4.0% | 915 | -11.2% |
| Op. income | 488 | 365 | 317 | 33.6% | 53.7% | 524 | -6.9% | 547 | -10.9% |
| Net income | 387 | 324 | 304 | 19.5% | 27.3% | 431 | -10.1% | 458 | -15.5% |
| EPS (NT$) | 13.36 | 11.18 | 10.40 | 19.5% | 28.5% | 14.74 | -9.4% | 15.49 | -13.8% |
| GM | 36.6% | 38.9% | 40.7% | -2.3% | -4.2% | 39.7% | -3.1% | 40.6% | -4.0% |
| OpM | 22.0% | 21.1% | 21.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 24.6% | -2.6% | 24.3% | -2.3% |
| NM | 17.4% | 18.8% | 20.3% | -1.3% | -2.9% | 20.2% | -2.8% | 20.3% | -2.9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 4: GPTC's P&L overview
| 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 1,596 | 1,727 | 2,221 | 2,692 | 2,857 | 3,161 | 3,459 | 3,536 | 8,236 | 13,013 | 17,768 |
| Gross profit | 539 | 671 | 813 | 1,016 | 1,102 | 1,234 | 1,413 | 1,485 | 3,039 | 5,234 | 7,555 |
| Operating profit | 210 | 365 | 488 | 686 | 732 | 839 | 1,003 | 1,088 | 1,749 | 3,661 | 5,698 |
| Net income | 463 | 324 | 387 | 546 | 584 | 667 | 800 | 871 | 1,720 | 2,922 | 4,517 |
| EPS (NT$) | 16.11 | 11.18 | 13.36 | 18.67 | 19.95 | 22.80 | 27.33 | 29.78 | 59.32 | 99.87 | 154.37 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||||
| GM | 33.8% | 38.9% | 36.6% | 37.7% | 38.6% | 39.0% | 40.9% | 42.0% | 36.9% | 40.2% | 42.5% |
| OpM | 13.2% | 21.1% | 22.0% | 25.5% | 25.6% | 26.5% | 29.0% | 30.8% | 21.2% | 28.1% | 32.1% |
| NM | 29.0% | 18.8% | 17.4% | 20.3% | 20.4% | 21.1% | 23.1% | 24.6% | 20.9% | 22.5% | 25.4% |
| YoY (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 28.7% | 5.9% | 48.7% | 25.2% | 79.0% | 83.1% | 55.7% | 31.4% | 26.4% | 58.0% | 36.5% |
| Gross profit | 6.5% | 1.4% | 33.6% | 12.2% | 104.3% | 83.9% | 73.9% | 46.2% | 13.3% | 72.2% | 44.4% |
| Operating profit | -24.2% | -10.3% | 53.7% | 7.9% | 248.8% | 129.8% | 105.6% | 58.6% | 6.8% | 109.4% | 55.6% |
| Net income | 81.3% | 57.2% | 27.3% | -2.8% | 26.1% | 106.1% | 106.6% | 59.5% | 29.6% | 69.9% | 54.6% |
| EPS | 84.3% | 58.6% | 28.5% | -3.1% | 23.8% | 103.9% | 104.6% | 59.5% | 30.5% | 68.3% | 54.6% |
| QoQ (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | -25.7% | 8.2% | 28.7% | 21.2% | 6.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 2.2% | |||
| Gross profit | -40.4% | 24.4% | 21.1% | 25.0% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 5.1% | |||
| Operating profit | -67.0% | 73.8% | 33.6% | 40.6% | 6.8% | 14.5% | 19.6% | 8.5% | |||
| Net income | -17.7% | -30.0% | 19.5% | 41.2% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 19.9% | 9.0% | |||
| EPS | -16.4% | -30.6% | 19.5% | 39.8% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 19.9% | 9.0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: Alongside our downward earnings revisions, our new 12-month TP is at NT$4,163 (from NT$4,200 previously). Our 12-month TP is based on an unchanged target P/E multiple of 35x applied to our FY2H27E-1H28E EPS. Our 35x target P/E continues to be based on avg. fwd P/E during the CoWoS ramp-up in mid-2024 to 2025. Our new TP implies 41.7x 2027E PE on the back of +62% NI YoY in 2027-28E on avg. The implied 2027E PE multiple of 41.7x is close to its high-end PE of 45x, reflecting our e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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positive view on GPTC's growth ahead on CoWoS capacity expansion and product mix upgrade. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 5: GPTC's revenue growth outlook
Exhibit 6: Taiex vs. GPTC
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: Forward P/E
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 8: Forward P/B
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 9: P/B vs. ROE
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 10: GPTC QFII holdings
Price Target Risks and Methodology - GPTC (3131.TWO)
Valuation: We are Buy rated on GPTC. Our 12m TP of NT$4,163 is based on a target P/E multiple of 35x (based on avg. fwd P/E during the CoWoS ramp-up in mid-2024 to 2025)
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applied to our FY2H27E-1H28E EPS.
Key risks to our views: 1) softer AI/HPC demand, 2) slower adoption of new advanced packaging technologies, and 3) intensifying competition.
| 3131.TWO | 12m Price Target: NT$4,163.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$4,163.00 | Price: NT$1,750.00 | Upside: 137.9% | Upside: 137.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Buy | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| Market cap: NT$50.9bn / $1.6bn Enterprise value: NT$52.9bn / $1.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.1bn / $35.3mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) EPS (NT$) | 12/25 12/26E 6,514.5 8,236.1 6,514.5 7,992.4 1,766.2 1,950.9 45.45 59.31 45.45 62.06 29.7 29.5 8.3 18.5 3.4 3.4 49.1 10.7 12/26E 18.67 | 12/27E 13,012.7 12,031.2 3,930.3 99.87 101.89 17.5 13.0 5.8 52.1 3/27E 19.95 | 12/28E 17,768.5 16,187.2 5,974.0 154.37 154.28 11.3 9.3 9.0 74.5 6/27E 22.80 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 3 Nov 2026 close.
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