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76KB | 真資料圖 | AVC（3017.TW）GS 評等與目標價歷史圖：2023-2026 股價線與 Taiwan SE Weighted 指數線，標有歷次目標價（如 908、1,026、983、…、3,986、4,513 等），評等欄顯示 NA→B（2024-05-16 起）、資料截至 2026-09-30 |
原始內容
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AVC (3017.TW): Liquid cooling rising penetration and AI servers ramp-up to drive growth ahead; Buy
3-month revenues preview: We expect AVC's monthly revenues to continue sequential growth through Dec 2026, leading 4Q26 revenues to grow at +42% YoY/ +15% QoQ, driven by: (1) new AI server racks ramp-up, driving the overall liquid cooling penetration rate. As we highlighted in Oct (report link), we expect AI server rack (NVL72-equivalent) shipment (incl. Nvidia and AMD) to reach 63k/ 110k/ 164k in 2026-28E, reflecting our positive view on AI server racks. (2) Its major ASIC AI server customer's new model ramp-up, driving its air-cooling and liquid-cooling components, along with a rising liquid cooling penetration rate. (3) Its customer base expansion to a new ASIC AI server, to further drive its liquid cooling components in 4Q26. And (4) increasing adoption rate of ultra-thin VC in consumer electronics to fit the lightweight design and major customer's foldable phone model. We expect AVC's net income to grow at a +39% CAGR in 2026-28E, riding on the strong AI spending, a growing liquid cooling penetration rate, and AVC's leading market position in total solutions (air cooling, liquid cooling with various components / systems). Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 1: AVC monthly revenue trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: AVC monthly/quarterly revenue summary
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26E | Nov-26E | Dec-26E | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 18,590 | 19,481 | 21,018 | 21,649 | 22,515 | 23,893 | 59,089 | 68,057 |
| Rev YoY | 57% | 54% | 45% | 32% | 30% | 71% | 52% | 42% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | 6% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 20% | 15% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 18,941 | 19,334 | 19,937 | |||||
| Act vs. GS | -2% | 1% | 5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revisions: We factor in AVC's Sep revenue and revise down our 2026E net income by -1%, mainly on lower revenues in 4Q26E, reflecting the slow consumer electronics under high memory costs and AI servers model transition. We revise up our 2027-28E net income by 4% / 0%, mainly on higher revenues and GMs. Our 2027-28E revenue is revised up by 1% / 1%, mainly on a higher contribution from AI server liquid cooling components. 2027-28E GM are revised up to reflect the rising liquid cooling components driving profitability.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revisions
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 229,917 | 225,305 | -2% | 315,979 | 319,723 | 1% | 391,749 | 394,024 | 1% |
| GP | 71,886 | 71,311 | -1% | 103,292 | 106,740 | 3% | 131,588 | 134,792 | 2% |
| OP | 58,856 | 58,553 | -1% | 85,597 | 88,836 | 4% | 111,242 | 111,253 | 0% |
| Net income | 40,628 | 40,409 | -1% | 59,569 | 61,901 | 4% | 78,030 | 78,057 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 31.3% | 31.7% | 32.7% | 33.4% | 33.6% | 34.2% | |||
| OPM | 25.6% | 26.0% | 27.1% | 27.8% | 28.4% | 28.2% | |||
| NM | 17.7% | 17.9% | 18.9% | 19.4% | 19.9% | 19.8% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: AVC P&L summary
| NTD mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 59,194 | 71,761 | 139,639 | 225,305 | 319,723 | 394,024 | 23,333 | 29,595 | 38,937 | 47,775 | 49,038 | 49,121 | 59,089 | 68,057 |
| Gross profit | 12,388 | 16,870 | 36,034 | 71,311 | 106,740 | 134,792 | 6,028 | 7,224 | 10,172 | 12,610 | 14,597 | 15,999 | 18,885 | 21,829 |
| OP income | 7,467 | 10,878 | 27,742 | 58,553 | 88,836 | 111,253 | 4,346 | 5,180 | 8,179 | 10,039 | 12,016 | 13,324 | 15,399 | 17,814 |
| Net income | 5,305 | 8,172 | 19,186 | 40,409 | 61,901 | 78,057 | 3,214 | 3,997 | 5,339 | 6,636 | 7,916 | 9,567 | 10,605 | 12,321 |
| EPS (NTD, diluted) | 13.71 | 20.62 | 48.24 | 101.06 | 154.78 | 195.18 | 8.06 | 10.02 | 13.46 | 16.70 | 19.81 | 23.92 | 26.52 | 30.81 |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 20.9% | 23.5% | 25.8% | 31.7% | 33.4% | 34.2% | 25.8% | 24.4% | 26.1% | 26.4% | 29.8% | 32.6% | 32.0% | 32.1% |
| Operating margin | 12.6% | 15.2% | 19.9% | 26.0% | 27.8% | 28.2% | 18.6% | 17.5% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 24.5% | 27.1% | 26.1% | 26.2% |
| Net margin | 9.0% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 17.9% | 19.4% | 19.8% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 19.5% | 17.9% | 18.1% |
| Ratios | ||||||||||||||
| Opex ratio | -8% | -8% | -6% | -6% | -6% | -6% | -7% | -7% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -6% | -6% |
| Tax rate | 28% | 26% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6% | 21% | 95% | 61% | 42% | 23% | 52% | 80% | 104% | 129% | 110% | 66% | 52% | 42% |
| Gross profit | 14% | 36% | 114% | 98% | 50% | 26% | 79% | 90% | 127% | 141% | 142% | 121% | 86% | 73% |
| OP income | 18% | 46% | 155% | 111% | 52% | 25% | 126% | 113% | 160% | 197% | 176% | 157% | 88% | 77% |
| Net income | 27% | 54% | 135% | 111% | 53% | 26% | 105% | 105% | 130% | 184% | 146% | 139% | 99% | 86% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 12% | 27% | 32% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 20% | 15% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 15% | 20% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 18% | 16% | ||||||
| OP income | 28% | 19% | 58% | 23% | 20% | 11% | 16% | 16% | ||||||
| Net income | 37% | 24% | 34% | 24% | 19% | 21% | 11% | 16% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use a near-term P/E to derive our 12-month target price and update our target P/E multiple to 30.6x 2027E EPS (vs. 30.3x previously), which is still derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. Our target P/E multiple is above AVC's historical average +1stv. forward trading P/E, reflecting our positive view on AVC riding on the rising penetration rate of liquid-cooled AI servers. With our updated target P/E and earnings estimates, we raise our 12-month target price to NT$4,736 (from NT$4,513). Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 5: AVC peers: EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation
Exhibit 6: AVC 12M forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 7: AVC QFII holdings
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 8: AVC net income and OPM
Source: TEJ
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - AVC
We are Buy-rated on AVC. Our 12-month target price for AVC is based on a near-term P/E, consistent with our Taiwan Technology coverage. We base our target price of NT$4,736 on a target P/E multiple of 30.6x applied to our forward-year EPS (2027E). Our target P/E is derived from the correlation between P/E and EPS growth of its peers in technology hardware.
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected adoption of liquid cooling; (2) lower-than-expected demand for AI servers; (3) fiercer-than-expected competition; and (4) a slower-than-expected recovery in general servers.
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3017.TW
12m Price Target: NT$4,736.00
Price: NT$3,315.00
Upside: 42.9%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
| Market cap: NT$1.3tr / $39.4bn Enterprise value: NT$1.2tr / $37.5bn 3m ADTV: NT$11.6bn / $363.4mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 12/25 139,639.4 30,988.5 48.24 48.24 18.0 7.7 2.4 | 12/26E 225,304.9 63,013.3 101.06 101.60 32.8 19.6 1.3 231.4 | 12/27E 319,722.5 93,783.8 154.78 148.95 21.4 12.9 2.0 330.5 | 12/28E 394,024.3 391,749.0 116,434.9 195.18 195.11 17.0 9.0 2.5 400.1 |
| 139,639.4 | 229,916.5 | 315,979.1 | |||
| 160.7 | |||||
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | 23.92 | 26.52 | 30.81 | 36.35 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 16 Oct 2026 close.
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