報告_GS_台達電2308_20260730

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原始內容

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Delta Electronics (2308.TW)

Upward revision in CAPEX to support strong demand through 2028E; Reiterate Buy with new TP of NT$4,120 (from NT$4,500)

2308.TW

12m Pri c e Target:

NT$4,120.00

Pri c e:

NT$1,530.00

Upside:

169.3%

Key takeaways from Delta's results call today (July 30th) include:

(1) Delta revised up its CAPEX investment in 2026 to be NT$70bn (previous guidance was expected to be 10%+ higher than 2025, implying NT$50bn+). The company also expects CAPEX to remain at a similar or higher level in 2027 if industry growth remains strong. Delta mentioned that its capacity expansion investments are planned on a 2+ year forward-looking basis (was 1+ year previously) and is currently expanding in multiple regions (including Thailand, mainland China, US, Taiwan, etc).

(2) Management expects 2H26 revenue to outperform 1H26 mainly due to the ramp up of new products and increasing contribution from projects with CSP customers. Management mentioned that achieving a GM of ~35% in 2H26 is a reasonable target, but the actual level will remain subject to the product mix. However, we believe the 2Q26 GM of 35.6% was seeing a negative impact from inventory write-o ff s (~1.0ppt negative impact) and we continue to see GM to be driven by higher AI exposure going forward (2026 GM at 37.0% per GSe).

(3) For HVDC products, the company believes shipment for both +-400VDC and 800VDC solutions will start in 3Q26, and expects more contribution in 2027. The +-400VDC solution is expected to see more shipment as Delta mentioned that some CSP clients are more aggressive in adopting this solution while the 800VDC solution is mainly driven by Nvidia's architecture.

(4) In terms of new products, Delta has already shipped the SOFC solution to a couple of customers for testing, and expects to have a trail production line ready by the end of 2026 and complete a new production line in 2027. As for SST, Delta mentioned the solution is being adopted by some clients, mainly for smaller scale data centers, and expects that commercialization still takes time.

BUY

Chao Wang

+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan-chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch

Allen Chang

+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Al Wang

+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch

Key Data _____________________________________

Market cap: NT$4.0tr / $122.8bn

Enterprise value: NT$4.0tr / $122.2bn

3m ADTV: NT$25.4bn / $800.9mn

Taiwan

Taiwan Electronic Components

M&A Rank: 3

Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

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BUY

Delta Electronics (2308.TW)

Rating since Oct 24, 2018

Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________

Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________

3m

(29.3)%

(3

1

.

1

)%

6m

25.4%

12m

1

88.7%

0.7%

69.6%

Source: FactSet. Price as of 30 Jul 2026 close.

Absolute

Rel. to the Taiwan SE Weighted Index

Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

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(5) In terms of supply chain risk, the company continues to see tight supply conditions across various materials but is still able to secure supply given its strong supplier relationships. Pricing adjustment to re fl ect higher costs will require discussion with clients and the ability to pass costs on to customers is still dependent on the products.

(6) The company expects AI to contribute 25%+ of total revenue and expects liquid cooling related products to account for 12%+ of total revenue in 2026.

Investment view

We maintain our positive view on Delta's revenue/pro fi tability outlook in the coming years (see here), and we expect GM/OPM will further increase by 10ppt+/14ppt+ in 2028 vs. 2025, due to the increasing contribution from AI power products (expand from 9% in 2025 to 69% in 2028E), whose margin pro fi le is much higher than Delta's corporate average. In order to meet with the strong AI power demand, the company has revised up its 2026 CAPEX guidance to reach NT$70bn (vs. previous guidance of ~NT$50bn) and continues to expand capacity in multiple regions. With new the 12kW PSU to ramp up from 2Q26 and more contribution from HVDC power racks starting in 3Q26, we expect 2Q26 GM of 35.6% to mark the low point in 2026-28E, followed by sequential margin expansion through 2028E.

Moreover, following management's comments from the latest results call, we see meaningful revenue upside from the adoption of the HVDC solution, which is expected to start in 3Q26, with dollar content per watt to be 3x+ more than the company's current key PSU products. Moreover, the company continues to develop next-gen SST solution for future CSPs' HVDC datacenters, which could deliver 10x+ dollar content per watt than existing products. For HVDC power rack and SST solutions, we expect Delta to capture a leading market share in both markets (50-70%+ in 2027E-2030E), supported by its industry leading AC to DC conversion capabilities. These o ff erings are likely to become key revenue and pro fi t drivers for the company for at least the next fi ve years.

Overall, we maintain our positive view on Delta, and expect the company to continue delivering solid earnings growth in the long term, considering the company's leading position in the most critical segment of the AI datacenter power industry. Maintain our Buy rating on Delta, and lower our 12m TP from NT$4,500 to NT$4,120.

2Q26 earnings recap

Delta's 2Q26 core business (OPI) was 21/9% lower than both GSe/BBG consensus while 2Q26 GM miss GSe/BBG consensus by 3.1/0.8ppt as GM performance normalized without penalty income that occurred in 1Q26 (which lifted GM by ~0.7ppt). Moreover, 2Q26 GM was partially o ff set by a ~1.0ppt impact from an inventory write-o ff . On earnings, Delta's 2Q net income was 13% lower than GSe due to the lower contribution from Delta Thailand.

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camul c. bella 424o result comp lavie

Exmolt s. Earning revision table

Delta P&L (NT$ mn)

Delta (2308. TW)

2,500

Sales

Gross Profit

2,000

EBIT

Revenue

1,500

Gross profits

Operating profits

Net Income

EPS (NTS)

1,000

Pre-tax income

500

Net earnings

Ratio analysis

Gross margin

EPS, NT$

-

EBIT margin

Net margin

Gross margin (%)

-500

EBIT margin (%)

2026

2026E New

2026E Old

768,416

GS est.

795,489

283,949

142,022

Diff.

Diff (%)

193,064

183,256

65.308

30,570

105,181

40.49

...................

35,000

25,137

37.0%

9.68

361.205

28,766

18.5%

11.08

13.7%

35.6%

16.7%

Net margin (%)

1Q18

3Q18

13.7%

-1,000

• Inventory write-down loss (NTSmn)

38.7%

20.0%

14.9%

3.0%

QoQ

2027E New

1Q26

YoY

2027E Old

1,140,640

2.5%

QoQ

Diff.

2Q25

1,185,408

459,861

274,806

159,353

58,961

Bloomberg consensus

2028E New

2028E Old

2,082,620

901,377

YoY

48%

48%

182,833

66,610

616,957

-8%

172.30

43.3%

9.69

21.5%

974,773

668.469

488,813

188.18

33,766

34,915

24,846

45.1%

9.47

31.0%

36.4%

22.6%

18.5%

13.6%

0%

.........*

-2%

-9%

-8%

-8%

•••••••••

0%

1%

2%

-1.9pp

-1.3pp

-1.1pp

-0.8ppt

-1.8ppt

0.1ppt

-3%

-8%

• 12%

-5%

-13%

-4%

503,015

306,449

124,035

-9%

44,049

15%

11%

2.0%

-10%

3Q23

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Delta 2Q26 result comp table

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

Earnings revisions

We revise down our 2026/27/28E EPS by 10/11/8% by applying a more conservative margin assumption for the Power Electronics business (we revise down our 2026/27/28E GM by 1.8/2.1/1.9ppt), and expecting some negative impact in shipments due to the potential shortage in materials (we revise down revenue estimates by3/4/4% for 2026/27/28E).

Exhibit 3: Earning revision table

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation

We reiterate our Buy rating on Delta with a new 12-m TP of NT$4,120 (from NT$4,500), based on an unchanged 26.5x P/E multiple (+1.6x STDV higher than Delta's past 15-year

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Diff.

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NTSmn

Revenue

Gross profit

Operating income

Pretax income

Taxes expense

Net income

EPS, NT$

As % of sales

Gross margin

3Q25

150.318

52,416

(27,607)

24,809

26,983

(6,062)

18.606

1Q25

118.919

(23,752)

14,036

15,663

(3,620)

10.231

2Q25

124.035

(25,380)

18,669

19,571

(4,237)

13.948

3.94

7.16

5.37

Exhibit 4: P&L table

Operating expense ratio

Operating margin

Net margin

QoQ growth (%)

Revenue

Gross profit

Operating income

Net income

Yor growth (%)

Revenue

Gross profit

OPEX

Operating income

Net income

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20.0%

1Q26

159.353

58,961

(30,544)

28,417

2Q26

183.256

65,308

(34,738)

30,570

3Q26E

206.674

77,065

(37,201)

39,864

4Q25

161,613

55,903

(29,485)

26,418

4Q26E

219.134

82,615

(39,444)

43,171

1Q27E

220,386

85,679

(40,110)

45,568

2Q27E

264.174

105,457

(43,853)

61,604

4Q27E

334.945

137,479

(52,921)

84,558

2024

421.148

136,580

(88,928)

47,652

2025

554.885

190,157

(106,224)

83,932

2026E

768.416

142,022

2027E

1.140.640

274,806

2028E

2.082.620

616,957

average valuation), and maintain our valuation period at 2028E and discounted back to 2027 at a CoE of 11%. 17.324 40,114 43.421 31.684 45,568 30.799 11.86 44.388 17.09 23.51 35,229 13.56 87.866 60.108 23.14 105.181 40.49 195.420 75.23 172.30

34.6%

18.2%

37.3%

18.0%

37.0%

19.2%

37.7%

18.0%

35.6%

19.0%

34.9%

18.4%

38.9%

18.2%

39.9%

16.6%

40.9%

15.0%

41.0%

15.8%

32.4%

21.1%

34.3%

19.1%

37.0%

18.5%

40.3%

16.2%

43.3%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Investment Thesis & PT methodology and risks

Delta Electronics is the largest vendor of power supply components globally (in terms of sales) and a key servo motor/inverter/PLC supplier in mainland China. It is also a key supplier for the EV/server power industry, holding one of the largest market shares in both markets. We are positive on Delta's long-term growth opportunity driven by multiple factors (EV/EV charger/5G infrastructure/Datacenter power/ESS etc.) in the coming years. We also expect demand for its AI server power and cooling systems to deliver solid growth given the increasing demand for high computing performance AI servers, which will require higher e ffi ciency power components and better cooling systems to improve the overall performance. Trading at a 1-year forward P/E multiple that is below our target multiple, we believe the stock is undervalued, given the company's strong revenue outlook (50%+ 2025-28E CAGR) for its growth sectors (including EV & EV charging / green capex & renewable energy / cloud computing / smart manufacturing / satellite communication & smart connectivity), and its leadership in the power component industry. We are Buy rated. Key downside risks include: (1) slower-than-expected AI server power consumption growth momentum, (2) potential market share loss risk in AI server DC-DC power system or the potential design change on AI server DC-DC system, and (3) slower than expected of future products deployment, including power rack, SST and SOFC.

Valuation methodology : We are Buy rated on Delta. Our 12m TP of NT$4,120 is based on a target P/E multiple of 26.5x (1.6x s.d. higher than Delta's past 15-year average valuation) applied to our 2028E EPS and discounted back to 2027 at a CoE of 11%.

Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected AI server power consumption growth momentum, (2) potential market share loss risk in AI server DC-DC power system or the potential design change on AI server DC-DC system, and (3) slower than expected of future products deployment, including power rack, SST and SOFC.

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