PDF 原檔：報告_GS_台燿6274_20260730_original.pdf
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原始內容
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Taiwan Union Technology Corp. (6274.TWO)
Solid capacity expansion into long term supported by high-end customers demand across AI/LEO/Switching sectors; reiterate Buy
6 2 74.TWO
12m Pri c e Target:
NT$3,010.00
Pri c e:
NT$1,010.00
Upside:
198.0%
We hosted TUC's 2Q post result call on July 30th, and key takeaways included:
(1) TUC's Thailand plant new capacity ramp up timing is 2 months earlier than expected (thanks to the faster than expected technology ramp up speed), while the company previously believed the new capacity will be ramp up from September, but it started the capacity ramp up from mid of July. The company expects the new Thailand capacity ramp up will improve the company's market share in high-end AI server projects from 3Q.
(2) TUC announced the new capacity of 1.95mn sheets (~80% of the capacity today) in Thailand and mainland China in 2028. The company mentioned the new capacity expansion volume is based on customers' actual demand outlook (both US and mainland China will have more high-end CCL demand after 2028), and it also mentioned the capacity expansion speed is still below customers' order forecast.
(3) For pricing, the company mentioned most of the pricing hike happened in 1H26 was mainly on low end CCL, but it starts seeing M7 pricing hike from early 4Q. For M8 grade CCL, the company will wait until key Taiwan CCL peer starts raising pricing.
(4) M7/8 grade CCL already accounted for 39% of total revenue (vs. 36% in 2Q), and the company further mentioned the M7/8 demand will trend up signi fi cantly in coming quarters/years, considering the increasing adoption on M8 grade CCL from ASIC AI server/ high-end switching / future LEO projects.
(5) For AI server, the company is now working with several customers on the future new high-end AI projects quali fi cation (mostly M8+ grade CCL) across di ff erent GPU/AI CPU/ASIC projects, and believes its revenue will continue to trend up in coming quarters with more capacity and much better ASP/product mix.
BUY
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan-chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$255.7bn / $7.9bn
Enterprise value: NT$253.5bn / $7.8bn
3m ADTV: NT$9.2bn / $290.3mn
Taiwan
Taiwan Electronic Components
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$ mn) | 30,340.2 | 61,760.3 | 120,421.1 | 202,912.8 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 4,802.7 | 16,246.4 | 39,229.2 | 70,015.3 |
| EPS (NT$) | 12.13 | 38.63 | 97.22 | 178.48 |
| P/E (X) | 21.2 | 26.1 | 10.4 | 5.7 |
| P/B (X) | 4.0 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 6.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 2.9 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 12.4 |
| N debt/EBITDA (ex lea s e,X) | (0.1) | (0.4) | (0.4) | (0.4) |
| C R OC I (%) | 19.4 | 41.6 | 94.1 | 149.0 |
| FCF yield (%) | (1.9) | 1.3 | 4.6 | 9.7 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 8.02 | 12.53 | 13.72 | 15.44 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to ed as research www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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BUY
Taiwan Union Technology Corp. (6274.TWO)
Rating since Jun 19, 2019
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 21.2 | 26.1 | 10.4 | 5.7 |
| P/B (X) | 4.0 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 6.4 |
| FCF yield (%) | (1.9) | 1.3 | 4.6 | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITD A R(X) | 15.0 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 |
| EV/EBITD A (excl. leases) (X) | 15.0 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 |
| CROCI (%) | 19.4 | 41.6 | 94.1 | 149.0 |
| ROE (%) | 20.7 | 55.5 | 108.1 | 136.0 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (1.8) | (23.4) | (42.2) | (51.7) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (1.8) | (23.4) | (42.2) | (51.7) |
| Interest co v er (X) | 49.0 | 134.9 | 331.2 | 594.2 |
| Days in v entory outst , sales | 63.7 | 40.7 | 25.4 | 24.8 |
| Recei v able days | 143.0 | 103.8 | 92.1 | 95.6 |
| Days p ayable outstandin g | 123.1 | 87.1 | 68.6 | 72.2 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 18.3 | 43.5 | 74.0 | 90.0 |
| Turno v er (X) | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| L e v era g e (X) | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| G ross cas h in v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 27 , 151.9 | 29 , 183.5 | 31 , 984.4 | 38 , 254.4 |
| Av era g e ca p ital e mp loyed (NT $ ) | 14 , 409.3 | 19 , 062.0 | 21 , 019.2 | 25 , 095.6 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 64.47 | 75.42 | 104.49 | 158.03 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 31.5 | 103.6 | 9 5.0 | 68.5 |
| EBITDA growth | 26. 9 | 238.3 | 141.5 | 78.5 |
| EPS growth | 26. 9 | 218.3 | 151.7 | 83.6 |
| DPS growth | 15.5 | 260 | 151.7 | 83.6 |
| EBIT margin | 14.3 | 25.6 | 32.2 | 34.3 |
| EBITDA margin | 15.8 | 26.3 | 32.6 | 34.5 |
| Net income margin | 11.2 | 18.2 | 23.6 | 25.7 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
| 3m | 6m | 12m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | 0.0% | 100.8% | 2 8 5 . 5 % |
| Rel. to the TaiwanSE Weighted Index | ( 2 . 5 )% | 61. 2 % | 1 2 6. 5 % |
Source: FactSet. Price as of 30 Jul 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu e | 30,340 . 2 | 61,760 . 3 | 120,421 . 1 | 202, 9 12 . 8 |
| Co s t of good s s old | (23,442 . 4) | (42,250 . 4) | (75, 9 64 . 0) | (125,624 . 5) |
| SG&A | (2,03 9. 8) | (3,132 . 8) | (4,482 . 6) | (5,702 .9 ) |
| R&D | (514 . 3) | (58 9. 8) | (1,204 . 2) | (2,02 9. 1) |
| Other operating inc . /(exp . ) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| E BITDA | 4, 8 0 2 . 7 | 16 , 2 4 6 .4 | 39, 22 9. 2 | 7 0,0 15 .3 |
| Depreciation& amortization | (45 9. 0) | (45 9. 0) | (45 9. 0) | (45 9. 0) |
| E BIT | 4,343. 7 | 15 , 787 .3 | 3 8 , 77 0. 2 | 6 9, 556 .3 |
| Net intere s t inc . /(exp . ) | 41 .9 | ( 9. 7) | 10 9. 5 | 31 9. 5 |
| Income/(lo ss ) from a ss ociate s | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-ta xp r ofi t | 4, 518 . 6 | 15 ,3 82 . 7 | 3 7 , 85 0. 2 | 6 9,4 85 .3 |
| Provi s ion for taxe s | (1,10 9. 5) | (4,118 . 7) | ( 9 ,462 . 5) | (17,371 . 3) |
| Minority intere s t | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Preferred dividend s | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . (p re-e xc e p t ion a ls) | 3,409. 1 | 11 , 26 3.9 | 28 ,3 87 . 6 | 52 , 11 3.9 |
| Po s t-tax exceptional s | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . (pos t-e xc e p t ion a ls) | 3,409. 1 | 11 , 26 3.9 | 28 ,3 87 . 6 | 52 , 11 3.9 |
| E P S(b a sic , p re-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 12 . 1 3 | 3 8 . 6 3 | 9 7 . 22 | 178 .4 8 |
| E P S(dilu te d , p re-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 12 . 1 3 | 3 8 . 6 3 | 9 7 . 22 | 178 .4 8 |
| E P S(b a sic , pos t-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 12 . 1 3 | 3 8 . 6 3 | 9 7 . 22 | 178 .4 8 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pos t-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 12 . 1 3 | 3 8 . 6 3 | 9 7 . 22 | 178 .4 8 |
| DPS (NT$) | 7 . 51 | 27 . 04 | 68 . 06 | 124 .9 4 |
| Div . payout ratio (%) | 61 .9 | 70 . 0 | 70 . 0 | 70 . 0 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | ______ | |||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
| C a sh& c a sh equiv a lents | 5,165.0 | 10,897.4 | 20,997.6 | 34,746.7 |
| Accounts receiv a ble | 13,986.5 | 21,150.8 | 39,590.5 | 66,711.1 |
| Inventory | 7,404.8 | 6,366.5 | 10,406.0 | 17,208.8 |
| Other current a ssets | 5,794.7 | 5,794.7 | 5,794.7 | 5,794.7 |
| Total c u rrent assets | 3 2 ,3 51 .0 | 44, 2 09.3 | 76 , 788 . 8 | 12 4,4 61 . 2 |
| Net PP&E | 5,565.5 | 6,318.9 | 7,072.4 | 7,825.9 |
| Net int a ngibles | 36.4 | 23.9 | 11.4 | (1.1) |
| Tot a l investments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other long-term a ssets | 1,788.2 | 1,788.2 | 1,788.2 | 1,788.2 |
| Total assets | 39, 7 4 1 . 1 | 52 ,340.4 | 85 , 66 0. 8 | 1 34,0 7 4. 2 |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 10,319.7 | 9,839.1 | 18,730.9 | 30,975.9 |
| Short-term debt | 2,141.1 | 2,141.1 | 2,141.1 | 2,141.1 |
| Short-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other current li a bilities | 2,159.9 | 7,934.7 | 19,921.3 | 36,529.8 |
| Total c u rrent liabilities | 1 4, 62 0. 6 | 1 9,9 1 4.9 | 40, 7 93.3 | 6 9, 6 4 6 . 7 |
| Long-term debt | 2,685.6 | 2,685.6 | 2,685.6 | 2,685.6 |
| Long-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other long-term li a bilities | 3,820.9 | 3,820.9 | 3,820.9 | 3,820.9 |
| Total long-term liabilities | 6 , 5 0 6 . 5 | 6 , 5 0 6 . 5 | 6 , 5 0 6 . 5 | 6 , 5 0 6 . 5 |
| Total liabilities | 21 , 127 . 1 | 26 ,4 21 .4 | 4 7 , 2 99. 7 | 76 , 15 3. 2 |
| Preferred sh a res | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tot a l commonequity | 18,614.0 | 21,993.2 | 30,509.5 | 46,143.7 |
| Minority interest | 0.0 | 3,9 25 . 8 | 7 , 851 . 6 | 11 , 777 .4 |
| Total liabilities &eq u ity | 39, 7 4 1 . 1 | 52 ,340.4 | 85 , 66 0. 8 (16,171.0) | 1 34,0 7 4. 2 |
| Net debt, a djusted | (338.3) | (6,070.7) | (29,920.1) |
Cash Flow (NT$ mn) ________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 3,409.1 | 11,263.9 | 28,387.6 | 52,113.9 |
| D&Aadd-back | 459.0 | 459.0 | 459.0 | 459.0 |
| Minority interest add-back | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Net (inc)/dec working capital | (3,810.0) | (6,606.5) | (13,587.5) | (21,678.3) |
| Other operating cash flow | 537.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cash flow from operations | 5 9 5 . 8 | 5 , 116 . 5 | 15 , 25 9. 2 | 30, 8 94. 6 |
| C apital expenditures | (1,948.6) | (1,200.0) | (1,200.0) | (1,200.0) |
| Acquisitions | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Divestitures | 25.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Others | (4,578.5) | -- | -- | -- |
| Cash flow from investing | ( 6 , 5 0 1 . 8 ) | ( 1 , 2 00.0) | ( 1 , 2 00.0) | ( 1 , 2 00.0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | (1,797.0) | (2,109.9) | (7,884.7) | (19,871.3) |
| Inc/(dec) in debt | 2,759.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Other financing cash flows | 3,828.4 | 3,925.8 | 3,925.8 | 3,925.8 |
| Cash flow from financing | 4, 7 9 1 .0 | 1 , 815 .9 | (3,9 58 .9) | ( 15 ,94 5 . 6 ) |
| Total cash flow | ( 1 , 115 .0) | 5 , 7 3 2 .4 | 1 0, 1 00. 2 | 1 3, 7 49. 1 |
| Free cash flow | (1,352.8) | 3,916.5 | 14,059.2 | 29,694.6 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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(6) For high-end switching, the company is expecting a solid demand outlook on 800G/1.6T switch adopted with M8/M8.5/M9 grade from existing customers, and it also been quali fi ed by new switching customers recently which should suggest an even stronger demand from high-end switching sector. Our supply chain check suggests the 800G/1.6T switch CCL demand should go up by at least 100%+ YoY in 2027, while management mentioned the growth is in-line with what they see from customers order forecast.
(7) For LEO, the company mentioned it's working with key LEO customers now to support their AI related demand in coming years, and it expects the CCL grade will continue to upgrade from M6 now to M7/8 in coming quarters/years. Moreover, customers are asking for more capacity in long term to support their demand after 2028.
(8) TUC believes the ASP/GM uptrend for high-end CCL players just started, and mentioned the pricing hike on CCL products is not just cost pass through but includes the additional pricing hike on higher opportunity cost, as it sees a very tight supply on the high-end high quality CCL capacity. Moreover, the company mentioned the high quality CCL capacity expansion leadtime is at least 24+ months, and it sees no supply demand reversal risk at least until end of 2028.
We reiterate our Buy rating on TUC, and expect TUC will continue to improve its product mix with more high-end spill over orders from EMC (TUC M7/8 accounted for 39% of total revenue in 2Q vs. EMC at 60-65% in 2Q) from not only the AI server industry, but also high-end switching and LEO industry, as we expect EMC will only have new capacity come on stream by end of 2026 (see here) but the M7+ CCL demand will still go up by 50%+ HoH in 2H26 (and we expect the TAM growth will be 100%+ YoY in 2027 - see here).
Also, we are positive on TUC's proactive capacity expansion plans in coming years, considering the solid demand outlook. TUC has seen the most conservative capacity expansion in the past 10+ years, and it always checks with customers on the future demand carefully before investing in the new capacity. As a result, we believe TUC's proactive capacity expansion strategy this time would bene fi t from being reviewed with customers carefully and based on their owned research on the future demand outlook, suggesting limited risk going into long term.
Moreover, TUC is much more fl exible on its pricing strategy vs. EMC, who already did 2 rounds of pricing hike on M2-7 grade CCL since 2Q26, as it continues to see the faster than expected customers demand outlook, which should help the company to catch up with EMC's GM/OPM in coming years. Considering the company's capacity is fully utilized now, we believe low end customers could cancel orders due to the high pricing, which would suggest more capacity/room for TUC to work with high-end/AI customers, providing scope to improve its ASP and GM (high-end AI project ASP can be 3-5x higher than low end projects, and the GM can be 40%+ vs. low end only at 5-15%).
Maintain Buy on TUC, with unchanged estimates and 12m TP of NT$3,010, based on a 22x 2H27-1H28E EPS (+2x STDV higher than the past 3-year industry average P/E multiple).
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
calvil l. raL lavie
NTSmn
1Q26
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating expense
Operating income
1.828
2Q26
(892)
3.358
3Q26E
17.621|
5,835
(1.022)
4,813
3,427
Pretax income
Taxes expense
Net in come
4,813
Exhibit 1: P&L table
EPS, NTS
8.02
4.36
12.53
Ratio analysis and assumption
As % of sales
Gross margin
Operating expense ratio
Operating margin
Net margin
QoQ growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
YoY growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
2027E
25.821
9,395
(1.381)
8.013
7,613
(1,903)
5.710
19.56
4Q26E
19,785
6,897
(1,108)
5,789
5.269
(1,265)
4,005
13.72
1027E
21.664
7,712
(1,181)
6,531
6,011
(1,503)
4,508
15.44
3027E
33.587
12,468
(1,511)
10,956
10,956
(2,739)
8.217
28.14
4Q27E
39.348
14,883
(1.613)
13,270
13.270
(3,317)
9,952
34.08
1Q28E
41.153
15,466
(1,708)
13,758
13,722
(3,431)
10,292
35.25
2Q28E
45.886
17,196
(1,790)
15,407
15,372
(3,843)
11,529
39.48
3Q28E
55.305
21,093
(1,963)
19.130
19,130
(4,782)
14.347
49.14
4Q28E
60.569
23,533
(2.271)
21.262
21,262
(5,315)
15.946
54.61
2025
30,340
(2,554)
4.344
4.519
(1,109)
3,409
12.13
2026E
61.760
(3,723)
15.787
15.383
(4,119)
11,264
38.63
2027E
120 421
(5,687)
38,770
37.850
(9,463)
28,388
97.22
2028E
202.913
(7.732)
69,556
69,485
(17,371)
52,114
178.48
2029E
297.071
(11,341)
106.329
106.258
(26,565)
79,694
272.94
| 34.9% | 35.6% 36.4% | 37.1% | 37.8% 37.6% | 37.5% | 31.6% | 36.9% | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.1% 7.0% | 29.7% 33.1% | 38.1% | 38.9% | 22.7% | 38.1% | 39.6% | |||||||||||
| 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 42% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | ||
| 18.2% 12.5% | 23.5% 27.3% | 29.3% 20.2% | 30.1% 20.8% 31.0% | 32.6% 33.7% | 33.4% | 33.6% 25.1% | 34.6% | 35.1% | 14.3% 11.2% | 25.6% 18.2% | 32.2% | 34.3% | 35.8% 26.8% | ||||
| 16.4% 20.8% | 22.1% 24.5% | 25.3% | 25.0% | 25.9% | 26.3% | 23.6% | 25.7% | ||||||||||
| 10.2% | 42.2% 23.2% | 12.3% | 9.5% 19.2% | 30.1% | 17.2% | 4.6% 11.5% | 9.5% | ||||||||||
| 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% | 25.5% 68.1% 37.3% 18.2% 11.8% 21.8% 32.7% 19.4% 3.9% 11.2% 2207% 11.6% |
| 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% | 41.7% 16.4% 83.7% 85.8% 43.3% 56.2% 20.3% 9.5% 12.8% 12.6% 22.7% 26.6% 36.7% 43.9% 21.1% 21.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 242% 11.1% 11.1% |
| 110.9% | |||||||||||||||||
| 118.5% | 116.8% | 115.5% | 90.6% | 98.9% | 90.0% | 77.7% | 53.9% | 32% | 104% | 95% | 69% | 46% | |||||
| 204.7% | 242.3% | 113.7% | 115.8% | 100.5% | 83.0% | 58.1% | 29% | 183% 128% | 74% | 52% | |||||||
| 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% | 293.9% 259.3% 280.3% 264.8% 348.9% 270.0% 257.4% 138.6% 143.8% 127.7% 124.7% 129.2% 148.5% 110.7% 128.3% 92.3% 101.9% 18013 60.2% 60.2% 30% 31% 263% 230% 146% 152% 79% 84% 53% 53% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investment Thesis & PT methodology and risks
TUC is a key high-end global CCL supplier that focuses on M7+ grade high-speed CCL (key applications include high-end switches (100G+) and AI server materials), with 20%+ market share in the past two years. The company continues to expect its unit market share in the server industry to increase from 15% in Whitley and Purley processors to higher in the Eagle Stream generation, and plans to launch two types of p roducts for low-end and high-end customers (T2A and T2C) to gain market share. Also, strong growth in 400G/800G switch shipments and new 800G switch shipments, scheduled for launch in 2025-27, should continue to be a key demand driver for TUC, in our view. Additionally, the company is working on high-end AI projects with CSP and enterprise players, which we believe should drive revenue momentum in the long term. We view the stock as undervalued vs. Taiwan CCL peers on a P/E basis and rate it Buy.
Key downside risks include: (1) slower-than-expected share gains in the low-loss CCL segment; (2) rising trade tensions, which could lead to weaker server and switch shipments globally; and (3) rising competition from mainland China peers.
Valuation methodology: Our 12m TP of NT$3,010 is based on a 22x 2027E P/E (+2x STDV higher than the past 3-year industry average P/E multiple).
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected share gains in the low-loss CCL segment; (2) rising trade tensions, which could lead to weaker server and switch shipments globally; and (3) rising competition from mainland China peers.
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