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NYPCB (8046.TW): 3Q26 First Take: GM/OPM continue to expand, with better progress for Kunshan plant in 4Q26; Buy
3Q26 result overview
NYPCB' 3Q26 core business (OPI) was 3% below our estimates but in line with consensus. GM was 0.5/0.7ppt lower than GSe/consensus, as the GM miss was mainly due to the capacity ramp up in Kunshan plant, but we expect good progress in its UTR in 4Q26 (we expect GM/OPM to further expand to 35.5%/33.0% in 4Q26). We believe the solid GM expansion this quarter (+4.6ppt QoQ, +19.7ppt YoY) was mainly driven by the ongoing price increase for ABF substrate, which leads to a better product mix.
For earnings, NYPCB 3Q26 EPS was 9%/9% lower than GSe/BBG consensus on the slightly slower than expected GM expansion.
Valuation
We maintain our Buy rating with a 12m TP of NT$2,700, based on 21.0x 2028E P/E, which is +1.5x STDV higher than NYPCB' past upcycle average P/E of 13.3x.
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuanchao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Exhibit 1: NYPCB 3Q26 snapshot
| NYPCB (8046.TW) | 3Q26 | QoQ | QoQ | YoY | YoY | Bloomberg consensus | Bloomberg consensus | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L (NT$mn) | Actual | GS est. | Diff (%) | 2Q26 | QoQ | 3Q25 | YoY | Consensus | % |
| Revenue | 16,378 | 16,378 | %0 | 13,575 | 21% | 10,967 | 49% | 16,345 | 0% |
| Gross profits | ,801 | 877 | -2% | 3,360 | 43% | 1,050 | 357% | 4,899 | -2% |
| Operating profits | 4,323 | 4,449 | 2,899 | 49% | 620 | 597% | 4,330 | %0 | |
| Pre-tax income | 4,454 | 4,629 | 2,976 | 50% | 907 | 391% | 4,548 | ||
| Net earnings | 3,298 | 3,610 | 2,262 | 46% | 725 | 355% | 3,623 | ||
| EPS, NTS | 5.10 | 5.59 | 3.50 | 46% | 1.12 | 355% | 5.62 | ||
| Gross margin (%) | 29.3% | 29.8% | -0.5ppt | 24.7% | 4.6ppt | 9.6% | 19.7ppt | 30.0% | -0.7ppt |
| EBIT margin (%) | 26.4% | 27.2% | -0.8ppt | 21.4% | 5.0ppt | 5.7% | 20.7ppt | 26.5% | -0.1ppt |
| Net margin (%) | 20.1% | 22.0% | -1.9ppt | 16.7% | 3.5ppt | 6.6% | 13.5ppt | 22.2% | -2.0ppt |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Investment Thesis - NYPCB
NYPCB manufactures and markets printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates (including ABF and BT substrates). We are Buy rated on NYPCB considering the company's high exposure to BT substrates and non-LTA ABF substrate (70%+ of total revenue), where we expect GM/OPM to increase significantly in the coming quarters (from breakeven in OPM in 1H25 to 26/42% in 2026/27E) due to the favorable substrate pricing outlook. Despite the company's low exposure to high-end ABF substrate industry (<20% of total revenue in 2025), we believe the expanding demand from ASIC AI server and high-end switch IC demand will drive the company's high-end ABF revenue exposure to 40%+ by 2027E, suggesting better GM/OPM outlook in the long term. In 2H25-2H26, we believe NYPCB will continue to benefit from stronger ABF/BT pricing and should be a key beneficiary of the pricing uptrend considering the company's key focus on BT and non-LTA ABF substrate industries. Moreover, in the long term (after 2026), we expect the ABF industry to return to supply tightness, and NYPCB's expanding high-end exposure will lead to a long-term earnings growth outlook (148% 2026-28E earnings CAGR). As a result, we see solid upside potential for NYPCB's earnings and stock performance.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - NYPCB
Valuation methodology: Our 12-month target price of NT$2,700 for NYPCB is based on 21x 2028E P/E, which is +1.5x STDV higher than the past upcycle average P/E (13.3x).
Key downside risks: (1) Slower-than-expected PC demand recovery, (2) Slower-than-expected ABF substrates pricing upgrading outlook, and (3) Slower-than-expected NYPCB new high-end capacity qualification progress.
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8046.TW
12m Price Target: NT$2,700.00
Price: NT$1,080.00
Upside: 150.0%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | Revenue (NT$ mn) | 40,173.0 | 61,252.5 | 127,394.4 | 215,270.2 |
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 8,876.3 | 22,582.2 | 62,017.3 | 114,560.9 |
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | EPS (NT$) | 3.01 | 19.35 | 66.67 | 128.66 |
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | P/E (X) | 56.6 | 55.8 | 16.2 | 8.4 |
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | P/B (X) | 2.4 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 5.4 |
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | Dividend yield (%) | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 4.8 |
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) | (1.0) | (0.9) | (0.7) | (0.8) |
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | CROCI (%) | 6.3 | 19.5 | 47.2 | 76.5 |
| Market cap: NT$697.9bn / $21.2bn Enterprise value: NT$677.7bn / $20.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$13.3bn / $416.6mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | FCF yield (%) | 0.5 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 8.9 |
| 3/26 | 6/26E | 9/26E | 12/26E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | 2.03 | 3.50 | 5.59 | 8.24 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 4 Nov 2026 close.
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