PDF 原檔：報告_GS_南電8046_20260811_original.pdf
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原始內容
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NYPCB (8046.TW)
New capacity expansion on high-end ABF suggesting signi fi cant ASP jump in the next 3+ years; short-term pricing uptrend remains solid; reiterate Buy (on CL)
8046.TW
12m Pri c e Target:
NT$2,500.00
Pri c e:
NT$1,130.00
Upside:
121.2%
We hosted NYPCB's 2Q26 post result on August 11th. Key takeaways include:
- (1) NYPCB mentioned it is considering multiple di ff erent CAPEX plans apart from the new Chiayi plant but most of these plans are still under evaluation. For the new Chiayi plant (NT$46.8bn investment or ~7% of NYPCB's market cap today - see here), NYPCB mentioned it will focus on the next generation advanced packaging substrates, whose pricing per unit can be US$1,000+, depending on the actual spec of substrates, and the revenue contribution could start from 1H29.
- (2) In terms of the pricing of ABF substrates, the company mentioned the ASP growth will accelerate in 2H26 vs. 1H26, while NYPCB believes the like for like basis pricing will continue to go up in coming quarters, due to the industry supply shortage condition (NYPCB doesn't expect this to be solved in 2027-28 and expects the pricing for ABF substrate could continue to go higher every quarter/year without any pricing ceiling).
- (3) For BT substrates, the company mentioned the GM went up from single digits % in 1Q26 to low twenties % in 2Q26, thanks to the 20-30% QoQ pricing hike per quarter since 2H25, and NYPCB continues to believe the BT substrate pricing will go up by 20-30% QoQ per quarter in foreseeable future.
- (4) In 3Q26, the company believes the revenue should go up by at least high teens % QoQ and targets to reach 20%+ QoQ if possible. In terms of the revenue growth, ABF substrates will be the key growth driver for 3Q with more high-end switches IC & AI ASIC IC substrate demand and the better pricing outlook, as well as the increasing contribution from its Kunshan plant (UTR was 50% only in 2Q26 vs. 3Q should be 70%+ with increasing demand from high-end networking customer).
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$730.2bn / $22.7bn
Enterprise value: NT$713.5bn / $22.2bn
3m ADTV: NT$16.8bn / $525.9mn
Taiwan
Taiwan Electronic Components
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$ mn) | 40,173.0 | 63,496.6 | 128,352.1 | 208,109.8 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 8,876.3 | 23,683.3 | 61,326.0 | 107,543.3 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.01 | 20.68 | 65.83 | 120.18 |
| P/E (X) | 56.6 | 54.6 | 17.2 | 9.4 |
| P/B (X) | 2.4 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 5.8 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 |
| N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) | (1.0) | (0.7) | (0.5) | (0.5) |
| CR O CI (%) | 6.3 | 20.0 | 43.1 | 60.2 |
| F C F yield (%) | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.50 | 6.16 | 8.99 | 11.23 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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NYPCB (8046.TW)
Rating since Aug 25, 2025
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 56.6 | 54.6 | 17.2 | 9.4 |
| P/B (X) | 2.4 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 5.8 |
| FCF yield (%) | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 11.4 | 30.1 | 11.4 | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 11.4 | 30.1 | 11.4 | 6.3 |
| CROCI (%) | 6.3 | 20.0 | 43.1 | 60.2 |
| ROE (%) | 4.3 | 26.7 | 63.6 | 75.4 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (18.6) | (30.8) | (37.6) | (42.1) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (18.6) | (30.8) | (37.6) | (42.1) |
| Interest co v er (X) | 27 , 921.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Days in v entory outst , sales | 41.7 | 32.4 | 22.7 | 21.1 |
| Recei v able days | 76.4 | 70.4 | 63.5 | 68.7 |
| Days p ayable outstandin g | 16.1 | 21.9 | 24.5 | 25.3 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 4.2 | 24.7 | 53.4 | 61.5 |
| Turno v er (X) | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| L e v era g e (X) | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| G ross cas h in v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 98 , 759.1 | 105 , 904.3 | 125 , 787.2 | 157 , 104.7 |
| A v era g e ca p ital e mp loyed (NT $ ) | 37 , 251.5 | 37 , 486.7 | 43 , 581.2 | 61 , 391.0 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 71.38 | 83.79 | 123.28 | 195.39 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 24 . 4 | 58 . 1 | 102 . 1 | 62 . 1 |
| EBITDA growth | 70 . 9 | 166 . 8 | 158 . 9 | 75 . 4 |
| EPS growth | 855 . 6 | 586 . 4 | 218 . 3 | 82 . 6 |
| DPS growth | 100 . 0 | 313 . 6 | 218 . 3 | 82 . 6 |
| EBIT margin | 4 . 9 | 25 . 9 | 41 . 9 | 47 . 8 |
| EBITDA margin | 22 . 1 | 37 . 3 | 47 . 8 | 51 . 7 |
| Net income margin | 4 . 8 | 21 . 0 | 33 . 1 | 37 . 3 |
Absolute
Rel. to the Taiwan SE Weighted Index
Source: FactSet. Price as of 10 Aug 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu e | 40,173.0 | 63,496.6 | 128,352.1 | 208,109.8 |
| Cost of goods sold | (36,525.9) | (45,172.0) | (71,625.7) | (104,343.1) |
| SG&A | (1,664.6) | (1,212.8) | (1,833.5) | (2,593.7) |
| R&D | 0.0 | (666.9) | (1,167.4) | (1,610.1) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| E BITDA | 8 , 876 .3 | 2 3, 68 3.3 | 61 ,3 26 .0 | 1 0 7 , 5 43.3 |
| Depreciation& amortization | (6,893.8) | (7,238.5) | (7,600.5) | (7,980.5) |
| E BIT | 1 ,9 82 .4 | 16 ,444. 8 | 5 3, 725 . 5 | 99, 562 . 8 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) | 158.2 | 160.3 | 311.6 | 558.6 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- |
| Pre-ta xp r ofi t | 2 ,34 5 . 5 | 17 , 127 .0 | 5 3, 725 . 5 | 99, 562 . 8 |
| Provision for taxes | (398.7) | (3,765.1) | (11,189.0) | (21,903.8) |
| Minority interest | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Preferred dividends | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . (p re-e xc e p t ion a ls) | 1 ,94 6 . 8 | 1 3,3 61 .9 | 4 2 , 5 3 6 . 5 | 77 , 65 9.0 |
| Post-tax exceptionals | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . (pos t-e xc e p t ion a ls) | 1 ,94 6 . 8 | 1 3,3 61 .9 | 4 2 , 5 3 6 . 5 | 77 , 65 9.0 |
| E P S(b a sic , p re-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 3.0 1 | 2 0. 68 | 65 . 8 3 | 12 0. 18 |
| E P S(dilu te d , p re-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 3.0 1 | 2 0. 68 | 65 . 8 3 | 12 0. 18 |
| E P S(b a sic , pos t-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 3.0 1 | 2 0. 68 | 65 . 8 3 | 12 0. 18 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pos t-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 3.0 1 | 2 0. 68 | 65 . 8 3 | 12 0. 18 |
| DPS (NT$) | 2.00 | 8.27 | 26.33 | 48.07 |
| Div. payout ratio (%) | 66.4 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | 12/25 | ______ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
| C a sh& c a sh equiv a lents | 8,589.5 | 16,700.0 | 29,939.4 | 53,197.8 |
| Accounts receiv a ble | 9,707.7 | 14,786.9 | 29,890.2 | 48,463.9 |
| Inventory | 5,067.7 | 6,188.0 | 9,811.7 | 14,293.6 |
| Other current a ssets | 257.8 | 257.8 | 257.8 | 257.8 |
| Total c u rrent assets | 2 3, 622 . 6 | 3 7 ,93 2 . 6 | 6 9, 8 99. 1 | 116 , 21 3. 1 |
| Net PP&E | 35,373.3 | 35,134.8 | 42,534.3 | 59,553.9 |
| Net int a ngibles | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tot a l investments | 500.2 | 500.2 | 500.2 | 500.2 |
| Other long-term a ssets | 1,711.2 | 1,711.2 | 1,711.2 | 1,711.2 |
| Total assets | 61 , 2 0 7 .4 | 75 , 278 . 8 | 11 4, 6 44.9 | 177 ,9 78 .4 |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 1,710.9 | 3,712.8 | 5,887.0 | 8,576.1 |
| Short-term debt | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Short-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other current li a bilities | 5,477.9 | 9,530.3 | 21,200.2 | 35,249.2 |
| Total c u rrent liabilities | 7 , 188 . 8 | 1 3, 2 43. 1 | 27 ,0 87 . 2 | 43, 825 .3 |
| Long-term debt | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Long-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other long-term li a bilities | 7,895.8 | 7,895.8 | 7,895.8 | 7,895.8 |
| Total long-term liabilities | 7 , 8 9 5 . 8 | 7 , 8 9 5 . 8 | 7 , 8 9 5 . 8 | 7 , 8 9 5 . 8 |
| Total liabilities | 15 ,0 8 4. 5 | 21 , 1 3 8 . 8 | 34,9 82 .9 | 51 , |
| Preferred sh a res | -- | -- | -- | 721 . 1 -- |
| Tot a l commonequity | 46,122.9 | 54,140.0 | 79,661.9 | 126,257.3 |
| Minority interest | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Net debt, a djusted | (8,589.5) | (16,700.0) | (29,939.4) | (53,197.8) |
Cash Flow (NT$ mn) ________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 1,946.8 | 13,361.9 | 4 2 ,536.5 | 77,659.0 |
| D&Aadd-back | 6,893.8 | 7, 2 38.5 | 7,600.5 | 7,980.5 |
| Minority interest add-back | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Net (inc)/dec w orking capital | (3, 2 18.0) | (4,197.5) | (16,55 2 .8) | ( 2 0,366.5) |
| Other operating cash flo w | ( 2 ,595.6) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from operations | 3,0 27 .0 | 16 ,40 2 .9 | 33, 58 4. 1 | 65 , 27 3.0 |
| Capital expenditures | ( 2 ,4 22 .3) | (7,000.0) | (15,000.0) | ( 2 5,000.0) |
| Acquisitions | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Divestitures | 74.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Others | 6 2 5.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cash flow from investing | ( 1 , 722 . 7 ) | ( 7 ,000.0) | ( 15 ,000.0) | ( 25 ,000.0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | (646. 2 ) | (1, 2 9 2 .3) | (5,344.7) | (17,014.6) |
| Inc/(dec) in debt | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other financing cash flo w s | (549.4) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing | ( 1 , 1 9 5 . 5 ) | ( 1 , 2 9 2 .3) | ( 5 ,344. 7 ) | ( 17 ,0 1 4. 6 ) |
| Total cash flow | 1 0 8 . 8 | 8 , 11 0. 5 | 1 3, 2 39.4 | 2 3, 258 .4 |
| Free cash flo w | 604.7 | 9,40 2 .9 | 18,584.1 | 40, 2 73.0 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
NTSmn
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating expense
Operating income
Pretax income
Taxes expense
Net income
1Q26
(419)
1.352
1,598
(290)
1.309
EPS, NTS
2.03
Ratio analysis and assumption
As % of sales
Gross margin
Operating expense ratio
Operating margin
Net margin
QoQ growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
YoY growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
2Q26
(460)
2,899
2,976
(714)
2,262
3.50
24.7%
3.4%
21.4%
16.7%
21.5%
89.7%
114.4%
72.8%
337.0%
15.8%
3.8%
12.1%
11.7%
0.1%
26.7%
40.4%
8.9%
311.7%
3986.2%
692.0%
3026E
17.284
5.408
(486)
4.922
5,102
(1.122)
3.979
6.16
31.3%
2.8%
28.5%
23.0%
27.3%
61.0%
69.8%
75.9%
57.6%
415.2%
693.5%
530.8% -1306.7%
449.0%
Exhibit 1: P&L table
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investment Thesis & PT methodology and risks
Investment Thesis - NYPCB
NYPCB manufactures and markets printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates (including ABF and BT substrates). We are Buy-rated on NYPCB considering the company's high exposure to BT substrates and non-LTA ABF substrate (70%+ of total revenue), where we expect GM/OPM to increase signi fi cantly in the coming quarters (from breakeven in OPM in 1H25 to 27/41% in 2026/27E) due to the favorable substrate pricing outlook. Despite the company's low exposure to high-end ABF substrate industry (<20% of total revenue in 1H25), we believe the expanding demand from ASIC AI server and high-end switch IC demand will drive the company's high-end ABF revenue exposure to 40%+ by 2027E, suggesting better GM/OPM outlook in the long term. In 2H25-2H26, we believe NYPCB will continue to bene fi t from stronger ABF/BT pricing and should be a key bene fi ciary of the pricing uptrend considering the company's key focus on BT and non-LTA ABF substrate industries. Moreover, in the long term (after 2026), we expect the ABF industry to return to supply tightness, and NYPCB's expanding high-end exposure will lead to a long-term earnings growth outlook (122%
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4Q26E
21,460
7.785
(514)
7.271
5.812
1Q27E
24.118
9.566
(607)
8,959
2Q27E
29.222
12.422
(696)
11.726|
3027E
34.661
15.716
(769)
14.947
4Q27E
40.351
19.022
(928)
18.094
1Q28E
44.585
21.749
(951)
20.798
2Q28E
50.594
25.020
(961)
24.059
3028E
53.276
26,462
(1.012)
25,450
4Q28E
59.655
30,536
(1.279)
29.257
2025
40.173
3.647
(1.665)
1,982
2026E
63.497
18,325
(1.880)
16,445
2027E
128.352
56.726
(3.001)
53,725
2028E
208.110
103.767
99,563
2029E
336.653
181,906
(5) In terms of the material supply update, NYPCB believes the cost from T-glass will go even higher in 2H26 vs. 1H26, and the company believes the shortage on T-glass will not be solved in the foreseeable future, considering the acceleration on substrate spec migration speed which should continue to result in lower industry average yield rate and consume more and more T-glass volume in the long term. 19.851 41.9% 47.8% 54.0% 42.4%
33.1%
37.3%
(6) For the new capacity expansion plans, the company is considering whether to get some funding from customers (like other ABF suppliers), but it will focus on bank loan fi rst, as the fl exibility on capacity usage could be limited if getting the funding from customers. 190.6% 144.3% 127.4% 101.4% 68.4% 60.5% 920% 402% 210% 83% 82%
383.6%
454.5%
304.4%
203.7%
193.0%
148.8%
149.1%
132.2%
123.6%
105.2%
105.2%
70.3%
703%
61.7%
57.7%
-257%
856%
730%
586%
227%
218%
85%
83%
83%
84%
Maintain Buy on NYPCB, as the key spot price ABF substrate supplier in the market which should bene fi t strongly from the S/D shortage and pricing hike in the foreseeable future, with an unchanged TP of NT$2,500 (based on 21x 2028E EPS).
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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2026-28E earnings CAGR). As a result, we see solid upside potential for NYPCB's earnings and stock performance.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - NYPCB
Valuation methodology: Our 12-month target price of NT$2,500 for NYPCB is based on 21x 2028E P/E, which is +1.5x STDV higher than the past upcycle average P/E (13.3x).
Key downside risks: (1) Slower-than-expected PC demand recovery, (2) Slower-than-expected ABF substrates pricing upgrading outlook, and (3) Slower-than-expected NYPCB new high-end capacity quali fi cation progress.
4
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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