PDF 原檔：報告_GS_仁寶2324_20260828_original.pdf
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53KB | 真資料圖 | 「Exhibit 6: Compal's QFII」外資持股比率折線圖，橫軸 Jan-00～Jan-26，標示 13%（2000）／66%（2004 高點）／39%（近期） |
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81KB | 真資料圖 | 「Compal (2324.TW) Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history」股價與目標價歷史圖，2023–2026，目標價點位 32／35.4／43.3／40.9／39.6／36.94／34.7／39.5 等 |
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原始內容
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Compal (2324.TW): AI server capacity in expansion; July better than fear; 2Q26 GP in line; Neutral
Compal's Jul revenue was up 38% YoY / down 15% MoM to NT$81bn, or 10% higher than our estimate, re fl ecting AI servers shipment ramp up. Jul PC shipments was down 22% YoY / 25% MoM to 1.8m units, re fl ecting the impact of 1H26 demand pull-in amid the rising memory cost. We model sequential revenue growth in Aug-Dec, considering the company's rising AI server shipments, AI server capacity expansion, and PC product mix upgrade towards high end model (e.g. AI PC). Overall, we expect Compal's 3Q / 4Q26E revenues to grow at 6% / 10% QoQ, bene fi ting from the rising AI server end demand from Neocloud clients. We remain positive on Compal's business diversi fi cation, supported by global capacity expansion in the US, Taiwan, and Vietnam, while consumer electronics still accounts for the majority of the company's total revenue, which demand could be capped by rising raw material costs (e.g., memory, CPU). Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.
Exhibit 1: Compal 3-month revenue preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26(E) | Sep-26(E) | Oct-26(E) | Nov-26(E) | Dec-26(E) | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 81,006 | 84,246 | 88,278 | 90,043 | 91,844 | 96,880 | 253,529 | 278,767 |
| Rev YoY | 38% | 43% | 27% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 35% | 46% |
| Rev Mom / QoQ | -15% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 10% |
| GS estimates(NT$m) | 73,467 | |||||||
| Act vs. GS | 10% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2Q26 GP in line: Compal's 2Q26 revenue was up 32% YoY / 18% QoQ to NT$238bn, or 10% / 8% higher than our estimate / Bloomberg consensus, driven by strong AI server and PC consumption pull in. 2Q26 GM is lower than our estimate and consensus, re fl ecting the growing AI server business and rising raw material costs. GP increased by 4% QoQ, or 2% / 4% behind our / consensus, largely in line. Opex ratio of 3.4% is better than our estimate and consensus, re fl ecting the operational e ffi ciency improvement, along with the higher than expected non-op income, leading 2Q26 net income up 549% YoY / 59% QoQ to NT$3bn, or 53% / 40% higher than our estimate / Bloomberg consensus.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to ed as research
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu
+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: 2Q26 result snapshot
| NT m | 2Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act / GS | Cons. | Act/Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 180,443 | 201,304 | 238,295 | 18% | 32% | 216,650 | 10% | 220,293 | 8% |
| GP | 10,585 | 10,597 | 11,021 | 4% | 4% | 11,300 | -2% | 11,521 | -4% |
| OP | 2,624 | 2,644 | 2,855 | 8% | 9% | 2,627 | 9% | 3,146 | -9% |
| Net income | 482 | 1,967 | 3,133 | 59% | 549% | 2,050 | 53% | 2,231 | 40% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | ||||
| Opex ratio | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | ||||
| OPM | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | ||||
| NM | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: Factoring in Compal's Jul revenue and 2Q26 results, we raise our 2026-28E net income by 6% / 7% / 11%, mainly on higher revenues and lower opex ratios. We raise our 2026-28E revenues by 6% / 8% / 10%, mainly on higher revenues from AI server business, supported by Compal's client base expansion, global capacity expansion, and migration towards system level manufacturing. 2026-28E GMs are revised down, considering the rising AI server contribution. Our 2026-28E opex ratios are revised down to re fl ect Compal's improving operational e ffi ciency as revenue scales up.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT m | Old | New | Chg | Old | New | Chg | Old | New | Chg |
| Revenue | 919,496 | 971,895 | 6% | 1,038,485 | 1,124,181 | 8% | 1,113,070 | 1,220,278 | 10% |
| GP | 48,513 | 46,841 | -3% | 53,916 | 53,542 | -1% | 55,645 | 59,329 | 7% |
| OP | 14,575 | 13,560 | -7% | 16,938 | 17,951 | 6% | 17,879 | 21,423 | 20% |
| Net income | 10,570 | 11,239 | 6% | 12,738 | 13,683 | 7% | 14,189 | 15,785 | 11% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | |||
| Opex ratio | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | |||
| OPM | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | |||
| NM | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our 12-month TP based on near-term P/E. Our 2027E target P/E is updated to 13.1x (vs. 13.6x previously), which is derived from the refreshed peers' correlation of forward trading P/E and EPS growth, mainly on sector de-rating amid the rising component cost. With our updated earnings estimates and target multiple, our 12-month TP is raised to NT$41.3 (vs. NT$39.5 previously). Our target P/E is still around the company's historical avg. forward trading P/E, considering the rising memory cost weighing on consumer electronics end demand, which still accounts for the majority of Compal's total revenue. Maintain Neutral.
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Exhibit 4: Compal: Correlation of earnings growth and P/E of its peers Wiwynn
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: TEJ
Exhibit 7: Compal P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 199,098 | 180,443 | 187,120 | 190,852 | 201,304 | 238,295 | 253,529 | 278,767 | 910,253 | 757,513 | 971,895 | 1,124,181 | 1,220,278 |
| Gross profit | 10,443 | 10,585 | 10,610 | 11,108 | 10,597 | 11,021 | 11,899 | 13,323 | 45,371 | 42,747 | 46,841 | 53,542 | 59,329 |
| Operating expense | (7,737) | (7,962) | (7,938) | (8,473) | (7,953) | (8,166) | (8,392) | (8,769) | (30,529) | (32,110) | (33,281) | (35,591) | (37,907) |
| Operating income | 2,706 | 2,624 | 2,672 | 2,634 | 2,644 | 2,855 | 3,507 | 4,554 | 14,842 | 10,636 | 13,560 | 17,951 | 21,423 |
| Pre tax profit | 3,427 | 1,290 | 3,217 | 2,515 | 3,091 | 4,639 | 3,589 | 4,597 | 15,348 | 10,448 | 15,916 | 18,616 | 21,476 |
| Net income | 2,191 | 482 | 1,947 | 1,409 | 1,967 | 3,133 | 2,692 | 3,448 | 10,042 | 6,030 | 11,239 | 13,683 | 15,785 |
| EPS, diluted (NT$) | 0.50 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.45 | 0.72 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 2.28 | 1.37 | 2.59 | 3.15 | 3.64 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Opex ratio | -3.9% | -4.4% | -4.2% | -4.4% | -4.0% | -3.4% | -3.3% | -3.1% | -3.4% | -4.2% | -3.4% | -3.2% | -3.1% |
| Operating margin | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -13% | -9% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 18% | 6% | 10% | |||||
| Gross profit | -10% | 1% | 0% | 5% | -5% | 4% | 8% | 12% | |||||
| Operating income | -17% | -3% | 2% | -1% | 0% | 8% | 23% | 30% | |||||
| Net income | 13% | -78% | 304% | -28% | 40% | 59% | -14% | 28% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0% | -24% | -23% | -17% | 1% | 32% | 35% | 46% | -4% | -17% | 28% | 16% | 9% |
| Gross profit | 7% | -10% | -13% | -4% | 1% | 4% | 12% | 20% | 7% | -6% | 10% | 14% | 11% |
| Operating income | -5% | -35% | -43% | -19% | -2% | 9% | 31% | 73% | 23% | -28% | 27% | 32% | 19% |
| Net income | 16% | -83% | -42% | -27% | -10% | 549% | 38% | 145% | 31% | -40% | 86% | 22% | 15% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 5: Compal's 12M forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Price Target Risks and Methodology - Compal
We are Neutral-rated on Compal with a 12-month target price of NT$41.3 . Our target price is based on 13.1x 2027E P/E , which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth and market re-rating for ODM companies as major factors for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks : 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger/weaker-than-expected demand for tablets.
| 2324.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$41.30 | 12m Price Target: NT$41.30 | Price: NT$39.75 | Price: NT$39.75 | Upside: 3.9% | Upside: 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | Neutral | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| Market c ap: NT$172.8 bn / $ 5 . 4bn e: | Market c ap: NT$172.8 bn / $ 5 . 4bn e: | Revenue (NT$m n ) N e w Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) E PS(NT$) N e w EPS (NT$) Old | 12/25 757 , 51 3.0 | 12/26E 9 71 , 8 94. 8 | 12/27E 1 , 12 4, 18 0. 5 | 12/28E 1 , 22 0, 277 . 8 |
| En terpr is e v a lu | En terpr is e v a lu | 757,513.0 | 919,496.1 | 1,038,485.2 | 1,113,070.0 | |
| NT$1 94 .7 bn / $ 6 .1 bn | NT$1 94 .7 bn / $ 6 .1 bn | 17,782.1 | 20,638.6 | 27,161.8 | 32,178.7 | |
| 3m AD T V : NT$ 3 . 9bn / $12 4 . 0mn | 3m AD T V : NT$ 3 . 9bn / $12 4 . 0mn | 1 .3 8 | 2 . 6 0 | 3. 17 | 3. 65 | |
| Ta iw a n | Ta iw a n | 1.38 | 2.43 | 2.92 | 3.26 | |
| G reater Chin a Te chnology | G reater Chin a Te chnology | P/E (X) | 22.6 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 10.9 |
| M &A R a n k: 3 | M &A R a n k: 3 | P/B (X) | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? | L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? | Dividend yield (%) | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| Y e s | Y e s | C RO C I (%) | 9.2 | 15.1 | 14.4 | 13.2 |
| 6/26 | 9 /26E | 12/26E | 3 /27E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 0.73 | 0.62 | 0.80 | 0.79 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 27 Aug 2026 close.
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