PDF 原檔：報告_GS_亞德客1590_20261030_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-30）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
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64KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：堆疊長條圖，2010–2028E 中國氣動市場份額（SMC／AirTAC／台韓廠商／中國本土／其他），AirTAC 佔比由 2010 年約 5% 升至 2025 年 26%，標註 2026E 30%、2027E 32%、2028E 35%；SMC 約 30–44% |
報告_GS_亞德客1590_20261030_004.png |
73KB | 真資料圖 | Goldman Sachs 對 AirTAC 評等與目標價歷史：灰線台灣加權指數、淺藍線股價，藍色方塊為歷次目標價（1300 至 1925），時間軸 2023–2026，評等區間標示 B |
報告_GS_亞德客1590_20261030_001.png |
17KB | 文字卡 | <40KB 未逐張檢視（封面預估表附圖） |
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26KB | 文字卡 | <40KB 未逐張檢視（價格表現附圖） |
原始內容
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Airtac International Group (1590.TW)
Continue to outperform China pneumatic market in 2027E, expecting double digit YoY growth across multiple end markets; reiterate Buy
1590.TW 12m Price Target: NT$1,895.00 Price: NT$1,150.00 Upside: 64.8%
What surprised us
AirTAC reported 3Q26 results today (October 29th). 3Q OP was in line with our estimates, but was 5% higher than BBG consensus. OPM was 33.9% in 3Q26, largely in line with our estimates; although GM of 49.4% was higher than our estimates by 0.9ppt, it was offset by higher opex (NT$1,778mn vs. GSe of NT$1,669mn). Total revenue was largely in line with GSe but was 4% above consensus, as the company enjoyed solid demand from the electronics industry (33% YoY in 3Q26 vs. 20% YoY in 2Q26, which accounted for 28% of total 3Q26 revenue).
What surprised us the most during the results call was the company's solid guidance on industry growth (mentioned low single to mid single digit % YoY growth is sustainable for the longer term for the China pneumatic market) and the company further mentioned that it could outgrow the market by 10ppt YoY in 2027. Moreover, the company expects all electronics/automotive/machine tools/general machinery/textile/packaging to see double digit YoY growth in both 2026/27, thanks to the China government's ongoing stimulus policies. Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance in Rmb terms to reach 20%+ YoY growth (could reach higher YoY in NT$ terms), and maintained 2026 OPM guidance of 34%.
The company reiterated its utilization rate target for its linear guide business to reach 50% by 2026 end (vs. 40%+ in 3Q26). The company continues to see peers raise prices for their linear guide products, and management thinks the company is well-positioned to gain market share with its stable pricing and shorter product lead time (less than a month vs. a key competitor at 4 months, see here).
Going into 4Q26, we expect revenue to reach NT$11,425mn (-1% QoQ,+26% YoY), as we expect solid YoY across nearly all end markets. Rising raw material cost remains a key risk, while the
BUY
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan-chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Yuichiro Isayama
+81(3)4587-9806 | yuichiro.isayama@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
| Key Data | _______ Market cap: NT$219.9bn / $6.8bn Enterprise value: NT$210.5bn / $6.5bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.1bn / $34.7mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No |
|---|---|
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 34,329.9 | 45,115.4 | 53,092.0 | 59,883.7 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 34,329.9 | 45,096.4 | 52,655.1 | 59,393.1 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 12,865.9 | 17,583.7 | 21,273.0 | 24,192.3 |
| EPS (NT$) New | 42.00 | 58.43 | 72.86 | 84.66 |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 42.00 | 61.12 | 72.93 | 84.42 |
| P/E (X) | 20.9 | 19.7 | 15.8 | 13.6 |
| P/B (X) | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| CROCI (%) | 19.2 | 22.9 | 27.3 | 29.9 |
| 9/26 | 12/26E | 3/27E | 6/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 14.23 | 14.29 | 15.93 | 20.14 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
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BUY
Airtac International Group (1590.TW)
Rating since Oct 13, 2019
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 20.9 | 19.7 | 15.8 | 13.6 |
| P/B (X) | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| FCF yield (%) | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 13.3 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 13.3 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 8.8 |
| CROCI (%) | 19.2 | 22.9 | 27.3 | 29.9 |
| ROE (%) | 16.7 | 21.4 | 24.6 | 26.2 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (7.2) | (16.6) | (21.2) | (26.2) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (7.2) | (16.6) | (21.2) | (26.2) |
| Interest cover (X) | 196.7 | 3,932.0 | 4,837.2 | 5,573.9 |
| Days inventory outst, sales | 69.6 | 59.9 | 63.0 | 63.5 |
| Receivable days | 128.2 | 110.7 | 97.1 | 99.0 |
| Days payable outstanding | 24.0 | 30.4 | 37.3 | 37.8 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 16.0 | 20.6 | 23.6 | 25.0 |
| Turnover (X) | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Leverage (X) | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Gross cash invested (ex cash) (NT$) | 61,249.6 | 60,459.9 | 63,045.7 | 65,556.1 |
| Average capital employed (NT$) | 47,805.6 | 48,047.1 | 47,967.8 | 49,306.6 |
| BVPS (NT$) | 262.91 | 283.36 | 308.86 | 338.49 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 12.0 | 31.4 | 17.7 | 12.8 |
| EBITDA growth | 11.0 | 36.7 | 21.0 | 13.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.2 | 39.1 | 24.7 | 16.2 |
| DPS growth | 35.2 | 32.8 | 24.7 | 16.2 |
| EBIT margin | 30.0 | 33.9 | 35.5 | 36.3 |
| EBITDA margin | 37.5 | 39.0 | 40.1 | 40.4 |
| Net income margin | 24.5 | 25.9 | 27.4 | 28.3 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
3m
6m
12m
Absolute
(13.2)%
(22.8)%
27.8%
Rel. to the Taiwan SE Weighted Index
(25.1)%
(34.6)%
(22.0)%
Source: FactSet. Price as of 29 Oct 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 34,329.9 | 45,115.4 | 53,092.0 | 59,883.7 |
| Cost of goods sold | (18,547.9) | (23,013.6) | (26,537.9) | (29,766.9) |
| SG&A | (4,383.8) | (5,384.4) | (6,084.0) | (6,552.5) |
| R&D | (1,110.5) | (1,404.0) | (1,631.4) | (1,856.2) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| EBITDA | 12,865.9 | 17,583.7 | 21,273.0 | 24,192.3 |
| Depreciation & amortization | (2,578.2) | (2,270.3) | (2,434.3) | (2,484.3) |
| EBIT | 10,287.7 | 15,313.3 | 18,838.7 | 21,708.0 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) | 68.1 | 67.3 | 168.4 | 234.6 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax profit | 10,645.4 | 15,589.9 | 18,838.7 | 21,708.0 |
| Provision for taxes | (2,245.5) | (3,903.7) | (4,266.1) | (4,775.8) |
| Minority interest | 0.3 | 0.0 | -- | -- |
| Preferred dividends | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Net inc. (pre-exceptionals) | 8,400.1 | 11,686.3 | 14,572.6 | 16,932.3 |
| Post-tax exceptionals | -- | -- | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net inc. (post-exceptionals) | 8,400.1 | 11,686.3 | 14,572.6 | 16,932.3 |
| EPS (basic, pre-except) (NT$) | 42.00 | 58.43 | 72.86 | 84.66 |
| EPS (diluted, pre-except) (NT$) | 42.00 | 58.43 | 72.86 | 84.66 |
| EPS (basic, post-except) (NT$) | 42.00 | 58.43 | 72.86 | 84.66 |
| EPS (diluted, post-except) (NT$) | 42.00 | 58.43 | 72.86 | 84.66 |
| DPS (NT$) | 28.59 | 37.98 | 47.36 | 55.03 |
| Div. payout ratio (%) | 68.1 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | ______ 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
| Cash & cash equivalents | 3,977.2 | 9,627.6 | 13,326.5 | 17,976.6 |
| Accounts receivable | 14,394.7 | 12,978.4 | 15,273.0 | 17,226.8 |
| Inventory | 6,292.0 | 8,511.9 | 9,815.4 | 11,009.7 |
| Other current assets | 383.4 | 383.4 | 383.4 | 383.4 |
| Total current assets | 25,047.3 | 31,501.3 | 38,798.3 | 46,596.6 |
| Net PP&E | 28,753.2 | 29,482.8 | 29,548.5 | 29,564.2 |
| Net intangibles | 29.1 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 29.1 |
| Total investments | 1,043.5 | 1,043.5 | 1,043.5 | 1,043.5 |
| Other long-term assets | 2,667.2 | 2,667.2 | 2,667.2 | 2,667.2 |
| Total assets | 57,540.2 | 64,723.9 | 72,086.6 | 79,900.6 |
| Accounts payable | 1,306.7 | 2,522.0 | 2,908.3 | 3,262.1 |
| Short-term debt | 217.0 | 217.0 | 217.0 | 217.0 |
| Short-term lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other current liabilities | 3,106.4 | 4,984.5 | 6,860.6 | 8,394.3 |
| Total current liabilities | 4,630.1 | 7,723.5 | 9,985.8 | 11,873.5 |
| Long-term debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- |
| Long-term lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other long-term liabilities | 322.8 | 322.8 | 322.8 | 322.8 |
| Total long-term liabilities | 322.8 | 322.8 | 322.8 | 322.8 |
| Total liabilities | 4,952.8 | 8,046.3 | 10,308.6 | 12,196.2 |
| Preferred shares | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Total common equity | 52,581.2 | 56,671.4 | 61,771.8 | 67,698.1 |
| Minority interest Total liabilities & equity | 6.2 57,540.2 | 6.2 64,723.9 | 6.2 72,086.6 | 6.2 79,900.6 |
| (3,760.2) | (9,410.6) | (13,109.5) | (17,759.6) | |
| Net debt, adjusted |
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 8,400.1 | 11,686.3 | 14,572.6 | 16,932.3 |
| D&A add-back | 2,578.2 | 2,270.3 | 2,434.3 | 2,484.3 |
| Minority interest add-back | (0.3) | 0.0 | -- | -- |
| Net (inc)/dec working capital | (3,818.9) | 411.7 | (3,211.9) | (2,794.2) |
| Other operating cash flow | 507.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cash flow from operations | 7,666.6 | 14,368.4 | 13,795.0 | 16,622.4 |
| Capital expenditures | (2,814.5) | (3,000.0) | (2,500.0) | (2,500.0) |
| Acquisitions | 1,736.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Divestitures | 117.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Others | (8.4) | -- | -- | -- |
| Cash flow from investing | (969.1) | (3,000.0) | (2,500.0) | (2,500.0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dividends paid (common & pref) | (4,001.9) | (5,718.0) | (7,596.1) | (9,472.2) |
| Inc/(dec) in debt | (5,340.8) | -- | -- | -- |
| Other financing cash flows | (103.8) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing | (9,446.5) | (5,718.0) | (7,596.1) | (9,472.2) |
| Total cash flow | (2,749.0) | 5,650.4 | 3,698.9 | 4,650.2 |
| Free cash flow | 4,852.1 | 11,368.4 | 11,295.0 | 14,122.4 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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company continues to maintain a stable pricing strategy within the China market (which accounts for 90%+ of total revenue); thus we expect GM to slightly decline to 48.7% (-0.7ppt QoQ and +1.2ppt YoY). We continue to see the company's ongoing effort in improving internal efficiency, which could partially offset the negative impact from rising material cost.
We hold our conservative though optimistic view on the pneumatic industry outlook, as we continue to see downside risk in consumer electronics shipments (smartphone, etc) and the negative impact from rising raw material cost to persist over the coming quarters. We expect the company to continue to gain share in the China pneumatic market with its stable pricing strategy as well as its shift towards higher-quality pneumatic products.
Exhibit 1: We expect AirTAC's China pneumatic market share will continue to expand in the long term
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investment view
We reiterate our Buy rating on AirTAC as we expect the company will continue to outperform the overall pneumatic market. We are positive on the company's latest comment that the overall China pneumatic market YoY growth could be sustained at low single to mid single digit for a longer period, and management further mentioned that the company will outperform the market by 10ppt in 2027. This is mainly driven by the company's latest guidance that nearly all end markets could see double digit YoY growth in 2027. While the company did mention the risk of decelerating YoY growth for the battery industry (which has seen solid YoY growth over the past two years), we expect solid growth from smaller segments, including machine tool/general machinery/textile/packaging, could offset the risk (we expect the 4 segments to account for 24% of total 2027E revenue vs. battery at 13%).
We believe AirTAC is well positioned to overcome potential industry demand risks with its strong B/S and healthy cash flow position, which could further support market share gains during industry downturns (historically, AirTAC has accelerated its market share gains during industry downcycles, supported by its solid B/S and cash flow management). We also expect the company's ROE to continue to improve in the coming years (ROE should improve to 26.2% in 2028E per GSe vs. 16%-17% in 2022-25) supporting a high dividend payout ratio (50%-60%+ per year per GSe).
As a result, we maintain our Buy rating on AirTAC with unchanged 12m TP of NT$1,895.
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Earnings and TP revisions
We revise up our 2027/28E revenue estimates by 1/1% to factor in the better-than-expected growth in the China pneumatic market. We revise up our 2026E OPM by 0.3ppt to factor in actual 3Q26 results and revise up our 2027/28E OPM by 0.3/0.1ppt as we continue to expect the company to focus on enhancing internal efficiency. We revise down our 2026E EPS estimates by 4% after factoring in a higher tax rate in 2H26.
Also, we introduce our 2029E earnings estimates in this report.
Maintain our Buy rating and 12m TP of NT$1,895, which is based on unchanged P/E of 26x on our 2027E EPS, as we believe the company could trade at 0.25x STDV above the average PE multiple during the previous pneumatic upcycle.
Exhibit 2: AirTAC's 3Q26 comp table
| AirTAC (1590.TW) - P&L (NT$mn) | 3Q26 - Actual | 3Q26 - GS est. | 3Q26 - Diff (%) | QoQ - 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY - 3Q25 | YoY | Bloomberg consensus - Consensus | Bloomberg consensus - % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,512 | 11,512 | 0% | 12,164 | 8,246 | 40% | 11,029 | 4% | |
| Gross profits | 5,683 | 5,580 | 2% | 6,048 | 3,797 | 50% | 5,425 | ||
| Operating profits | 3,905 | 3,911 | 0% | 4,265 | 2,460 | 59% | 3,724 | 5% | |
| Pre-taxincome | 3,959 | 4,061 | -3% | 4,238 | -7% | 2,652 | 49% | 3,805 | 4% |
| Net earnings | 2,847 | 3,208 | -11% | 3,311 | -14% | 2,099 | 36% | 3,002 | -5% |
| EPS, NT$ | 14.23 | 16.04 | -11% | 16.55 | -14% | 10.50 | 36% | 14.99 | |
| Gross margin (%) | 49.4% | 48.5% | 0.9ppt | 49.7% | -0.4ppt | 46.0% | 3.3ppt | 49.2% | 0.2ppt |
| EBIT margin (%) | 33.9% | 34.0% | -0.1ppt | 35.1% | -1.1ppt | 29.8% | 4.1ppt | 33.8% | 0.2ppt |
| Net margin (%) | 24.7% | 27.9% | -3.1ppt | 27.2% | -2.5ppt | 25.5% | -0.7ppt | 27.2% | -2.5ppt |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision table
| AirTAC P&L (NT$ mn) | 2026E New | 2026E Old | Diff. | 2027E New | 2027E Old | Diff. | 2028E New | 2028E Old | Diff. | 2029E New |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 45,115 | 45,096 | 0% | 53,092 | 52,655 | 1% | 59,884 | 59,393 | 1% | 65,830 |
| Gross Profit | 22,102 | 21,925 | 1% | 26,554 | 26,057 | 2% | 30,117 | 29,821 | 1% | 33,328 |
| EBIT | 15,313 | 15,192 | 1% | 18,839 | 18,541 | 2% | 21,708 | 21,487 | 1% | 24,155 |
| Net Income | 11,686 | 12,225 | 14,573 | 14,587 | 0% | 16,932 | 16,884 | 0% | 18,841 | |
| EPS (NT$) | 58.43 | 61.12 | 72.86 | 72.93 | 0% | 84.66 | 84.42 | 0% | 94.21 | |
| Ratio analysis | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | 49.0% | 48.6% | 0.4pp | 50.0% | 49.5% | 0.5pp | 50.3% | 50.2% | 0.1pp | 50.6% |
| EBIT margin | 33.9% | 33.7% | 0.3pp | 35.5% | 35.2% | 0.3pp | 36.3% | 36.2% | 0.1pp | 36.7% |
| Net margin | 25.9% | 27.1% | -1.2pp | 27.4% | 27.7% | -0.3pp | 28.3% | 28.4% | -0.2pp | 28.6% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 4: P&L table
| NT$mn | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 1Q28E | 2Q28E | 3Q28E | 4Q28E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,014 | 12,164 | 11,512 | 11,425 | 12,032 | 14,027 | 13,728 | 13,305 | 13,863 | 16,161 | 15,280 | 14,580 | 34,330 | 45,115 | 53,092 | 59,884 | 65,830 |
| Gross profit | 4,804 | 6,048 | 5,683 | 5,567 | 5,865 | 7,162 | 6,952 | 6,575 | 6,905 | 8,227 | 7,682 | 7,303 | 15,782 | 22,102 | 26,554 | 30,117 | 33,328 |
| Operating expense | (1,479) | (1,783) | (1,778) | (1,748) | (1,781) | (1,964) | (1,922) | (2,049) | (2,066) | (2,166) | (2,078) | (2.100) | (5,494) | (6,788) | (7.715) | (8,409) | (9.172) |
| Operating income | 3,325 | 4,265 | 3,905 | 3,819 | 4,084 | 5,199 | 5,030 | 4,526 | 4,840 | 6.061 | 5,604 | 5,203 | 10,288 | 15,313 | 18,839 | 21,708 | 24,155 |
| Pretax income | 3,424 | 4,238 | 3,959 | 3,969 | 4,084 | 5,199 | 5,030 | 4,526 | 4,840 | 6,061 | 5,604 | 5,203 | 10,645 | 15,590 | 18,839 | 21,708 | 24,155 |
| Taxes expense | (753) | (927) | (1.112) | (1.111) | (898) | (1.170) | (1.157) | (1.041) | (1,065) | (1,333) | (1,233) | (1.145) | (2,246) | (3,904) | (4,266) | (4.776) | (5,314) |
| Net income | 2,671 | 3,311 | 2,847 | 2,858 | 3,186 | 4,029 | 3,873 | 3,485 | 3,775 | 4,728 | 4,371 | 4,058 | 8,400 | 11,686 | 14,573 | 16,932 | 18,841 |
| EPS, NT$ | 13.35 | 16.55 | 14.23 | 14.29 | 15.93 | 20.14 | 19.37 | 17.42 | 18.87 | 23.64 | 21.86 | 20.29 | 42.00 | 58.43 | 72.86 | 84.66 | 94.21 |
| Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption | Ratio analysis and assumption |
| As % of sales | |||||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 48.0% | 49.7% | 49.4% | 48.7% | 48.7% | 51.1% | 506% | 49.4% | 49.8% | 5099% | 50.3% | 50.1% | 46.0% | 49.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 50.6% |
| Operating expense ratio | 14.8% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 15.4% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 13.9% |
| Operating margin | 33.2% | 35.1% | 33.9% | 33.4% | 33.9% | 37.1% | 36.6% | 34.0% | 34.9% | 37.5% | 36.7% | 35.7% | 30.0% | 33.9% | 35.5% | 36.3% | 36.7% |
| Net margin | 26.7% | 27.2% | 24.7% | 25.0% | 26.5% | 28.7% | 28.2% | 26.2% | 27.2% | 29.3% | 28.6% | 27.8% | 24.5% | 25.9% | 27.4% | 28.3% | 28.6% |
| QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) | QoQ growth (%) |
| Revenue | 11% | 21% | -5% | -1% | 5% | 17% | -2% | -3% | 4% | 17% | -5% | %9- | |||||
| Gross profit | 12% | 26% | -6% | -2% | 5% | 22% | -3% | -5% | 5% | 19% | -7% | %9%- | |||||
| Operating income | 18% | 28% | -8% | -2% | 7% | 27% | -3% | -10% | 7% | 25% | -8% | -7% | |||||
| Net income | 15% | 24% | -14% | 0% | 11% | 26% | -10% | 8% | 25% | %8- | -7% | ||||||
| YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) | YoY growth (%) |
| Revenue | 24% | 36% | 40% | 26% | 20% | 15% | 19% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 31% | 18% | 13% | 10% |
| Gross profit | 34% | 47% | %0% | 30% | 22% | 18% | 22% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 11% |
| OPEX | 14% | 29% | 33% | 19% | 20% | 10% | 8% | 17% | 16% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 24% | 14% | %6 | %6 |
| Operating income | 46% | 56% | %6% | 35% | 23% | 22% | 29% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 11% | 15% | 14% | 49% | 23% | 15% | 11% |
| Net income | 38% | 63% | 36% | 23% | 19% | 22% | 36% | 22% | 19% | 17% | 13% | 16% | 10% | 39% | 25% | 16% | 11% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Investment Thesis - AirTAC
AirTAC is the 2nd-largest pneumatic supplier in mainland China with 28% market share in 2025, outpacing most local competitors, owing to its low-cost yet high quality product, and service quality reputation in most key cities in mainland China. We forecast its market share will reach 30% in 2026E and expect AirTAC to be the structural winner in a deflationary market, due to its: (1) strong market growth and leadership: AirTAC continues to expand its market share in mainland China driven by competitive pricing that is more than 10% lower vs. international peers (with 45%+ GM / 30-35% OPM) and high demand elasticity among mainland China customers; and (2) superior cost structure and financial health: with best-in-class cash cost and a solid balance sheet, featuring positive net cash over FCF since 2023/2024, we believe AirTAC is well-equipped to weather industry downturns and capitalize on market restructuring.
Overall, we believe AirTAC will see better revenue/profitability in the long term given its share gainer position in the China pneumatic market and potential to gain share in the linear guide market (improved demand in the next 1-2 years). This should lead to strengthened valuation, vs. its recent trading range (trading below its 10-year avg. P/E multiple). We are Buy rated on AirTAC.
Price target risks and methodology - AirTAC
Valuation methodology: Our 12m TP of NT$1,895 is based on a target P/E of 26.0x on our 2027E EPS (0.25x STDV above avg of the last pneumatic upcycle).
Key downside risks: (1) Stronger competition from peers; (2) sharper-than-expected Rmb depreciation, and (3) a longer-than-expected end-market demand downtrend in mainland China.
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