PDF 原檔：報告_GS_上詮3363_20261009_original.pdf
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原始內容
FOCI (3363.TWO): CPO FAU in contribution; 3Q26 revenues +40% QoQ; Buy
FOCI's 3Q26 revenues were up 18% YoY/40% QoQ to NT$600m, and we expect to see strong QoQ revenues growth in 4Q26E to NT$1.2bn, supported by better seasonality and the gradual ramp up of 3.2T CPO FAU shipment, after starting mass production in 3Q26. The company continues to expand FAU capacity, riding on the growing demand of high-speed FAU products with expansion from the scale-out to scale-up market. We expect the company's high-speed CPO FAU revenues contribution to reach 21%/59%/73% in 2026E-28E. Maintain Buy.
Source: Company data
3-month preview: The company's Sep revenues were up 28% YoY/10% MoM to NT$224m, though 27% below our previous estimates, we attribute this to the longer-than-expected time to see high-speed CPO FAU ramp up. Looking ahead, we expect to see sequential MoM increase at 15%/20% MoM in Oct/Nov 2026 to NT$258m/ NT$309m, supported by capacity expansion, efficiency improvement, and rack-level AI server ramp up.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: We expect FOCI Oct revenues to grow 92% YoY/15% MoM to NT$258m FOCI quarterly/monthly revenues
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 171 | 204 | 224 | 258 | 297 | 679 | 429 | 600 | 1,234 |
| YoY | 12% | 13% | 28% | 92% | 136% | 418% | -26% | 18% | 216% |
| MoM / QoQ | 9% | 20% | 10% | 15% | 15% | 129% | 12% | 40% | 106% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 174 | 306 | 433 | 651 | |||||
| Act. Vs. GS. | 17% | -27% | -1% | -8% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: Factoring in FOCI's 3Q26 revenues, we revise down 2026E earnings by 6% on lower-than-expected CPO FAU revenues in 3Q, and revise up 2027E-30E earnings by 1%/1%/1%/1% mainly on higher revenues of high-speed CPO FAU, supported by FOCI's focus on CPO-scale up and rising CPO switch demand.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | Diff % | Old | New 2027E | 2028E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2029E - Diff % | 2029E - Old | 2029E - New | 2030E - Diff % | 2030E - Old | 2030E - New | 2030E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 2,704 | 2,644 | -2% | 9,745 | 9,767 | 0% | 25,477 | 25,700 | 1% | 32,769 | 33,140 | 1% | 36,583 | 37,026 | 1% |
| GP | 500 | 484 | -3% | 3,265 | 3,281 | 0% | 9,653 | 9,766 | 1% | 12,436 | 12,607 | 1% | 14,148 | 14,349 | 1% |
| OP | 52 | 44 | -15% | 2,193 | 2,207 | 1% | 6,927 | 7,016 | 1% | 9,225 | 9,359 | 1% | 10,819 | 10,979 | 1% |
| Net income | 90 | 84 | -6% | 1,917 | 1,930 | 1% | 5,460 | 5,530 | 1% | 7,245 | 7,350 | 1% | 8,491 | 8,617 | 1% |
| EPS (diluted) | 0.82 | 0.77 | -6% | 17.49 | 17.60 | 1% | 49.80 | 50.43 | 1% | 66.08 | 67.04 | 1% | 77.44 | 78.59 | 1% |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||
| GM | 18.5% | 18.3% | 33.5% | 33.6% | 37.9% | 38.0% | 38.0% | 38.0% | 38.7% | 38.8% | |||||
| Opex ratio | 16.6% | 16.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | |||||
| OPM | 1.9% | 1.7% | 22.5% | 22.6% | 27.2% | 27.3% | 28.2% | 28.2% | 29.6% | 29.7% | |||||
| NM | 3.3% | 3.2% | 19.7% | 19.8% | 21.4% | 21.5% | 22.1% | 22.2% | 23.2% | 23.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: FOCI P&L Summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 411 | 582 | 508 | 391 | 382 | 429 | 600 | 1,234 | 1,364 | 1,892 | 2,644 | 9,767 | 25,700 | 33,140 | 37,026 |
| Gross profit | 71 | 115 | 121 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 101 | 375 | 181 | 356 | 484 | 3,281 | 9,766 | 12,607 | 14,349 |
| Operating expense | (77) | (83) | (110) | (84) | (163) | (93) | (88) | (95) | (272) | (354) | (439) | (1,074) | (2,750) | (3,248) | (3,369) |
| Operating income | (6) | 33 | 11 | (36) | (156) | (92) | 12 | 280 | (92) | 1 | 44 | 2,207 | 7,016 | 9,359 | 10,979 |
| Net income | 1 | 17 | 21 | (22) | (107) | (25) | 14 | 202 | (48) | 16 | 84 | 1,930 | 5,530 | 7,350 | 8,617 |
| EPS, diluted (NT$) | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.20 | (0.22) | (0.98) | (0.23) | 0.13 | 1.84 | (0.48) | 0.16 | 0.77 | 17.60 | 50.43 | 67.04 | 78.59 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 17.2% | 19.8% | 23.8% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 16.8% | 30.4% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 18.3% | 33.6% | 38.0% | 38.0% | 38.8% |
| Opex ratio | -18.8% | -14.2% | -21.7% | -21.6% | -42.7% | -21.7% | -14.7% | -7.7% | -20.0% | -18.7% | -16.6% | -11.0% | -10.7% | -9.8% | -9.1% |
| Operating margin | -1.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | -9.2% | -40.8% | -21.4% | 2.1% | 22.7% | -6.7% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 22.6% | 27.3% | 28.2% | 29.7% |
| Net margin | 0.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | -5.7% | -28.0% | -5.8% | 2.3% | 16.4% | -3.5% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 19.8% | 21.5% | 22.2% | 23.3% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 14% | 41% | -13% | -23% | -2% | 12% | 40% | 106% | |||||||
| Gross profit | 110% | 63% | 5% | -60% | -85% | -87% | 10343% | 273% | |||||||
| Operating income | nm | nm | -66% | nm | nm | nm | nm | 2154% | |||||||
| Net income | nm | 1420% | 22% | nm | nm | nm | nm | 1342% | |||||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 53% | 65% | 33% | 9% | -7% | -26% | 18% | 216% | 7% | 39% | 40% | 269% | 163% | 29% | 12% |
| Gross profit | 235% | 62% | 121% | 44% | -90% | -99% | -17% | 672% | 0% | 97% | 36% | 578% | 198% | 29% | 14% |
| Operating income | nm | 376% | nm | nm | nm | nm | 13% | nm | nm | nm | 3630% | 4868% | 218% | 33% | 17% |
| Net income | nm | -34% | nm | nm | nm | nm | -32% | nm | nm | nm | 419% | 2197% | 187% | 33% | 17% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our 12m target price via a discounted P/E and derive the target P/E multiple via peers' trading P/E vs. forward year EPS YoY (methodology unchanged). With this, our target multiple declines slightly to 16.4x (vs. 15.4x previously) based on FOCI's largely unchanged long-term earnings growth (2030E-31E EPS YoY at 15% on avg.), reflecting improving sentiment on rack-level AI server ramp up and high-speed transition. We continue to apply the target P/E to 2030E EPS (unchanged), and discount it back to 2027E via a 12.6% COE (unchanged). Our new TP is NT$900 (vs. NT$833 previously). Our new TP implies 51x 2027E P/E. Our new TP implies 10x 2027E P/S, within its historical trading range of 5x to 30x. Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 5: FOCI discounted P/E
| NT$m - Milestones | 2022 - Optical components | 2023 - Optical components | 2024 - Optical components | 2025 - High-speed FAU for CPO | 2026E - High-speed FAU for CPO | 2027E - High-speed FAU for CPO | 2028E - Migrating to higher speed FAU | 2029E - Migrating to higher speed FAU | 2030E - Migrating to higher speed FAU | 2031E - Migrating to higher speed FAU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,621 | 1,272 | 1,364 | 1,892 | 2,644 | 9,767 | 25,700 | 33,140 | 37,026 | 40,654 |
| YoY | -22% | 7% | 39% | 40% | 269% | 163% | 29% | 12% | 10% | |
| Gross margin | 18.4% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 18.3% | 33.6% | 38.0% | 38.0% | 38.8% | 39.3% |
| Operating profit | 99 | -58 | -92 | 1 | 44 | 2,207 | 7,016 | 9,359 | 10,979 | 12,400 |
| YoY | na | na | na | 3630% | 4868% | 218% | 33% | 17% | 13% | |
| Operating margin | 6% | -5% | -7% | 0% | 2% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 30% | 31% |
| Pre-tax profit | 73 | 6 | -57 | 23 | 146 | 2,270 | 7,079 | 9,423 | 11,047 | 12,467 |
| Net profit | 47 | 12 | -48 | 16 | 84 | 1,930 | 5,530 | 7,350 | 8,617 | 9,725 |
| EPS (NTD, diluted) | 0.53 | 0.13 | -0.48 | 0.16 | 0.77 | 17.60 | 50.43 | 67.04 | 78.59 | 88.69 |
| YoY | -74% | na | na | 419% | 2197% | 187% | 33% | 17% | 13% | |
| TP implied P/S | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| TP implied P/E | 51 | 18 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| 2030E target P/E | 16.4 |
|---|---|
| Target multiple x EPS | 1,285 |
| Discounted back to 2027; TP (NTD) | 900 |
| Implied 2027 P/E | 51 |
| COE assumption | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.4 |
| Risk free | 3.5% |
| Market risk premium | 6.5% |
| COE | 12.6% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: FOCI peers' 2027E P/E vs. 2027-28E EPS YoY
Exhibit 7: FOCI 12M forward P/S ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Valuation: Our 12-month target price of NT$900 is based on a 16.4x 2030E P/E, discounted back to 2027E at a COE of 12.6%. Our target multiple is derived from peers' correlation between forward-year trading P/E and earnings growth.
Key downside risks: Fiercer-than-expected market competition, technology migration trends in optical networking, and slower-than-expected capacity ramp-up.
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3363.TWO
12m Price Target: NT$900.00
Price: NT$667.00
Upside: 34.9%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 1,892.0 | 2,644.3 | 9,767.2 | 25,700.0 |
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 1,892.0 | 2,704.0 | 9,745.0 | 25,477.2 | |
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 124.2 | 221.9 | 2,665.4 | 7,761.3 |
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EPS (NT$) New | 0.16 | 0.77 | 17.60 | 50.43 |
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EPS (NT$) Old | 0.16 | 0.82 | 17.49 | 49.80 |
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | P/E (X) | NM | NM | 37.9 | 13.2 |
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | P/B (X) | 12.3 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 5.5 |
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Dividend yield (%) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Market cap: NT$73.1bn / $2.3bn Enterprise value: NT$70.2bn / $2.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $75.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | CROCI (%) | 3.6 | 9.6 | 47.2 | 77.4 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | (0.23) | 0.13 | 1.84 | 2.30 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 8 Oct 2026 close.
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