PDF 原檔：報告_GF_聯電2303_20260729_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
GFHK - UMC 2Q26 review_002.png |
49.6KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 5：UMC 12個月 forward P/E 走勢圖，2016-04–2026-04，2018 曾衝上 50x 泡沫後長期回落至 10–20x 區間、近期回升貼近 15x 均線 |
GFHK - UMC 2Q26 review_001.png |
57.6KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 2：UMC 營收 YoY 與營業利益 YoY 折線圖，1Q21–4Q27E，2022–2023 谷底（營業利益 YoY 一度逾 -50%）後至 2026–27E 回升至雙位數成長 |
原始內容
UMC (2303 TT)
Value Enhancement Amid a Favorable Landscape
C Progress Intact, with >$170 Annualized EPS Potential Lower TP to NT$125: UMC's share price has underperformed the Taiex by 26% over the past two weeks amid the broad market sell-off, due to TSMC's comment of "mature nodes not in shortage" and investors rotating away from price hike theme. Nevertheless, UMC's >90% UTR guidance appears better than expected, and we expect margins to improve not only from pricing but also from product value enhancement, driven by mix upgrades toward 22nm/28nm and AI revenue, which mgmt expects to exceed $1bn in 3 years. We also view the foundry landscape as favorable, given growing AI/optics demand and TSMC's capacity planning (mature-node largely on overseas/specialty) while Samsung continues to scale down. However, rising depreciation expense should partially offset margin expansion. Meanwhile, optics and advanced packaging remain re-rating catalysts. Regarding Intel, mgmt reiterated that the collaboration remains on track for tape-out in 2027 on Intel 12, and we now remove our earlier expectation of Intel 3/4 given lacking engineering power on leading nodes. Incorporating results and guidance, we raise 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by 45%/3% but lower target multiple from 20x to 18x on sector de-rating, resulting in a lower TP of NT$125.
Earnings call highlights on capex: 2Q26 revenue rose by 13% QoQ/17% YoY to NT$68.7bn, and GM was up to 32.5% from 29.2% a quarter ago, slightly higher than consensus. Helped by sizable investment gains, EPS came in at NT$3.4, +162% QoQ/+375% YoY. For 3Q26, it guided: 1) wafer shipments to be up high single digit; 2) ASP to be firm; 3) GM at mid-30s; 4) UTR to be >90% (vs. 85% in 2Q26). For 2026, UMC raised capex to $2bn, driven by its Singapore fab's cleanroom and the shell construction for the 12A P7/P8.
Modest margin expansion: Following the mid-30s margin guidance for 3Q26, we expect it to be expanded to high-30s in 2027, driven by favorable pricing environment, high UTRs and product mix enhancement. We expect its UTR to be at 90%+ in 2H26, underpinned by 8' improvement to high-80s on customers (Samsung LSI, Novatek, MTK) and/or products (as HV, BCD, etc). Pricing wise, mgmt indicated a favorable pricing environment into 2027 with UMC continuing highlighting its product value. For optics, we believe that optics will be a highmargin business, due to the process node of 65nm/55nm and 8' for PIC and TFLN, the latter is expected to reach 5KPM by 2H27. On the other hand, the margin expansion could be modest, due to the growing depreciation expenses.
Risks: 1) Geo-political risk; 2) Demand uncertainties; 3) Competition; 4) New product delay.
Profit forecast
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 222,533 | 232,303 | 237,553 | 286,813 | 338,898 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | -20.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 20.7 | 18.2 |
| Net profit (m) | 60,990 | 47,211 | 41,716 | 90,672 | 86,824 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | -30.1 | -22.6 | -11.6 | 117.4 | -4.2 |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 |
| P/E | 15.3 | 19.6 | 22.3 | 10.3 | 10.7 |
| ROE ( % ) | 17.0 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 20.8 | 19.3 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Maintained Target price
Buy NT$125
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Henry Huang SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
2Q26 Results Slightly Ahead on Margins
2Q26 revenue rose by 13% QoQ/17% YoY to NT$68.7bn, and GM was up to 32.5% from 29.2% a quarter ago, slightly higher than consensus and earlier company's guidance of low-30s. Helped by sizable investment gains due to strong stock market performance, EPS came in at NT$3.4, +162% QoQ/+375% YoY.
2Q26 Guidance Inline, Capex Raised
For 3Q26, it guided: 1) wafer shipments to be up high single digit; 2) ASP to be firm; 3) GM at mid-30s; 4) UTR to be >90% (vs. 85% in 2Q26).
For 2026, UMC raised capex to $2bn, driven by its Singapore fab's cleanroom and the shell construction for the 12A P7/P8. The higher capex also leads to higher depreciation expenses in 2027 and 2028.
Figure 1: 2Q26 Results Review
| NTD mn | 2Q26 | 1Q26 | QoQ | 2Q25 | YoY | GFHK | Diff | Cons. | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 68,733 | 61,038 | 12.6% | 58,758 | 17.0% | 67,555 | 1.7% | 67,599 | 1.7% |
| Gross profit | 22,323 | 17,818 | 25.3% | 16,878 | 32.3% | 21,073 | 5.9% | 20,688 | 7.9% |
| OPEX | 7,373 | 6,542 | 12.7% | 6,058 | 21.7% | 7,070 | 4.3% | 7,017 | 5.1% |
| Operating profit | 14,950 | 11,276 | 32.6% | 10,820 | 38.2% | 14,003 | 6.8% | 13,671 | 9.4% |
| Pre-tax profit | 45,186 | 16,643 | 171.5% | 10,154 | 345.0% | 15,304 | 195.3% | 15,827 | 185.5% |
| Net profit | 42,260 | 16,171 | 161.3% | 8,903 | 374.7% | 12,986 | 225.4% | 13,480 | 213.5% |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.39 | 1.29 | 162.8% | 0.71 | 377.5% | 1.04 | 226.0% | 1.07 | 216.8% |
| ppt. | ppt. | ppt. | ppt. | ||||||
| Gross Margin | 32.5% | 29.2% | 3.3 | 28.7% | 3.8 | 31.2% | 1.3 | 30.6% | 1.9 |
| Operating Margin | 21.8% | 18.5% | 3.3 | 18.4% | 3.4 | 20.7% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 1.6 |
| Pretax margin | 65.7% | 27.3% | 38.4 | 17.3% | 48.4 | 22.7% | 43.0 | 23.4% | 42.3 |
| Net margin | 61.5% | 26.5% | 35.0 | 15.2% | 46.3 | 19.2% | 42.3 | 19.9% | 41.6 |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 2: UMC's revenue YoY and operating profit YoY (%)
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Earnings Revision
By factoring in results and guidance, we revise our EPS estimates for 2026E/2027E by +45%/+3%.
Figure 3: Earnings revision
| NTDm | 2025 | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | Change (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | New | Old | New | 2026E | 2027E | ||
| Net sales | 237,553 | 277,979 | 286,813 | 335,025 | 338,898 | 3% | 1% |
| Gross profit | 68,906 | 90,136 | 96,217 | 124,293 | 126,859 | 7% | 2% |
| EBIT | 43,949 | 61,554 | 66,798 | 92,463 | 94,861 | 9% | 3% |
| Pre-tax Income | 49,648 | 70,824 | 99,454 | 98,423 | 101,935 | 40% | 4% |
| Net profit | 41,716 | 62,506 | 90,672 | 83,918 | 86,824 | 45% | 3% |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.34 | 5.01 | 7.26 | 6.72 | 6.95 | 45% | 3% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 29.0% | 32.4% | 33.5% | 37.1% | 37.4% | ||
| Operating margin | 18.5% | 22.1% | 23.3% | 27.6% | 28.0% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 20.9% | 25.5% | 34.7% | 29.4% | 30.1% | ||
| Net profit margin | 17.6% | 22.5% | 31.6% | 25.0% | 25.6% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 4: UMC's P&L forecast
| (NTD m) | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2026E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 237,553 | 61,038 | 68,733 | 77,056 | 79,986 | 286,813 | 78,552 | 83,138 | 87,424 | 89,783 | 338,898 |
| COGS | 168,647 | 43,219 | 46,410 | 49,957 | 51,010 | 190,596 | 50,215 | 52,130 | 54,183 | 55,510 | 212,038 |
| Gross profit | 68,907 | 17,818 | 22,323 | 27,099 | 28,977 | 96,217 | 28,337 | 31,008 | 33,241 | 34,273 | 126,859 |
| Opex | 24,959 | 6,542 | 7,373 | 7,737 | 7,767 | 29,419 | 7,567 | 7,897 | 8,217 | 8,317 | 31,998 |
| Operating profit | 43,948 | 11,276 | 14,950 | 19,362 | 21,210 | 66,798 | 20,770 | 23,111 | 25,024 | 25,956 | 94,861 |
| Non-op profit | 5,699 | 5,367 | 30,236 | -4,623 | 1,677 | 32,656 | 1,768 | 1,768 | 1,768 | 1,768 | 7,074 |
| Pre-tax profit | 49,647 | 16,643 | 45,186 | 14,738 | 22,886 | 99,454 | 22,538 | 24,879 | 26,793 | 27,724 | 101,935 |
| Income tax | 8,113 | 527 | 2,962 | 2,137 | 3,319 | 8,945 | 3,493 | 3,856 | 3,885 | 4,020 | 15,255 |
| Minority interest | 182 | 54 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 162 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 144 |
| Net Income | 41,717 | 16,171 | 42,260 | 12,637 | 19,604 | 90,672 | 19,081 | 21,059 | 22,944 | 23,740 | 86,824 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.34 | 1.29 | 3.39 | 1.01 | 1.57 | 7.27 | 1.53 | 1.69 | 1.84 | 1.90 | 6.96 |
| Outstanding shares | 12,485 | 12,491 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 29.0% | 29.2% | 32.5% | 35.2% | 36.2% | 33.5% | 36.1% | 37.3% | 38.0% | 38.2% | 37.4% |
| Operating margin | 18.5% | 18.5% | 21.8% | 25.1% | 26.5% | 23.3% | 26.4% | 27.8% | 28.6% | 28.9% | 28.0% |
| Pre-tax margin | 20.9% | 27.3% | 65.7% | 19.1% | 28.6% | 34.7% | 28.7% | 29.9% | 30.6% | 30.9% | 30.1% |
| Effective tax rate | 16.3% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 15.0% |
| Growth (YoY%) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 2% | 5% | 17% | 30% | 29% | 21% | 29% | 21% | 13% | 12% | 18% |
| Operating profit | -15% | 15% | 38% | 74% | 73% | 52% | 84% | 55% | 29% | 22% | 42% |
| Net income | -12% | 108% | 375% | -16% | 95% | 117% | 18% | -50% | 82% | 21% | -4% |
| EPS | -12% | 108% | 375% | -16% | 95% | 118% | 18% | -50% | 82% | 21% | -4% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| Wafer | 98% | 95% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 108% | 97% | 97% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| Others | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | -8% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Buy with TP of NT$125
We rate UMC (2330 TT, UMC US) Buy and set our TP at NT$125, which is based on 18x our 2027E EPS estimate from previous 20x due to recent sector de-rating. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market will be mainly focused on the company's earnings outlook, and its earnings volatility has reduced since 2021 due to a much more diversified application mix and specialty position. We adopt the 2027 P/E valuation is due to the improving pricing environment in the longer term. Overall, we believe the mature node industry outlook has become more favorable, and UMC's mgmt. also guided a favorable pricing environment in 2026/2027.
UMC P/E traded at an average of 15x since 2021, when the market accepted the P/E valuation. Our target price is 20% higher than the mid-cycle level, as we believe the rerating catalysts are emerging amid favorable industry supply/demand. Meanwhile, the company continued to gain AI related business (i.e., networking, silicon photonics, advanced packaging).
Figure 5: UMC's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) Geo-political risk; 2) Demand uncertainties; 3) Competition; 4) New product delay.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | NTD mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | |
| Current assets | 216,797 | 189,678 | 204,783 | 248,279 | 237,853 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 144,882 | 115,239 | 128,365 | 158,889 | 135,137 |
| Inventory | 35,713 | 35,782 | 37,228 | 42,074 | 46,807 |
| Accounts Receivable | 29,586 | 33,343 | 31,274 | 37,759 | 44,616 |
| Other current assets | 6,618 | 5,313 | 7,915 | 9,557 | 11,292 |
| Non-current assets | 342,390 | 380,523 | 374,213 | 377,978 | 406,554 |
| Long-term equity investment | 74,255 | 72,487 | 75,373 | 78,373 | 81,373 |
| Fixed assets | 239,123 | 279,059 | 271,395 | 272,161 | 297,737 |
| Other long-term assets | 29,012 | 28,976 | 27,445 | 27,445 | 27,445 |
| Total assets | 559,187 | 570,201 | 578,996 | 626,257 | 644,407 |
| Current liabilities | 99,015 | 75,260 | 87,598 | 91,881 | 101,170 |
| Accounts Payable | 7,526 | 7,633 | 9,170 | 10,363 | 11,529 |
| Short-term borrowings | 29,537 | 19,510 | 27,597 | 20,146 | 17,124 |
| Other current liabilities | 61,952 | 48,117 | 50,831 | 61,372 | 72,517 |
| Non-current liabilities | 99,015 | 75,260 | 87,598 | 91,881 | 101,170 |
| Long-term Debt | 45,236 | 55,533 | 45,372 | 33,122 | 28,153 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 55,358 | 61,222 | 66,170 | 66,170 | 66,170 |
| Total liabilities | 199,608 | 192,016 | 199,141 | 191,173 | 195,494 |
| Total Equity | 359,579 | 378,185 | 379,855 | 435,084 | 448,913 |
| Share Capital | 125,298 | 125,607 | 125,882 | 125,882 | 125,882 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 16,886 | 25,473 | 21,004 | 15,004 | 6,004 |
| Retained earnings | 217,053 | 226,849 | 232,883 | 294,112 | 316,941 |
| Preferred Stocks | 341 | 257 | 87 | 87 | 87 |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 559,187 | 570,201 | 578,996 | 626,257 | 644,407 |
| Income Statement | NTD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | |
| Revenue | 222,533 | 232,303 | 237,553 | 286,813 | 338,898 |
| Cost of sales | 144,789 | 156,649 | 168,647 | 190,596 | 212,038 |
| Gross profit | 77,744 | 75,654 | 68,906 | 96,217 | 126,859 |
| Operating Expense | 19,853 | 24,042 | 24,958 | 29,419 | 31,998 |
| Operating profit | 57,891 | 51,613 | 43,949 | 66,798 | 94,861 |
| Interest Income | 4,853 | 3,670 | 2,279 | 1,506 | 1,874 |
| Interest Expense | 1,483 | 1,679 | 1,602 | 31,297 | 5,200 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | 9,651 | 2,616 | 5,022 | -147 | -- |
| Pre-tax profit | 70,912 | 56,220 | 49,648 | 99,454 | 101,935 |
| Income tax | 9,022 | 9,218 | 8,294 | 9,107 | 15,399 |
| Profit for the year | 61,890 | 47,002 | 41,353 | 90,347 | 86,536 |
| Minority interest | -450 | 105 | 182 | 162 | 144 |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 60,990 | 47,211 | 41,716 | 90,672 | 86,824 |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 |
| Cash Flow Statement | NTD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | |
| Operating cash flow | 66,689 | 79,970 | 103,286 | 152,068 | 155,333 |
| Profit for the year | 60,990 | 47,211 | 41,716 | 90,672 | 86,824 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 40,484 | 48,168 | 59,259 | 62,634 | 69,524 |
| Change in working capital | -29,645 | -16,251 | 2,272 | -1,238 | -1,015 |
| Others | -5,140 | 843 | 39 | -- | -- |
| Investing cash flow | -97,053 | -87,144 | -52,988 | -63,400 | -95,100 |
| Capex | -105,899 | -85,408 | -48,764 | -63,400 | -95,100 |
| Change in investment | -4,267 | 924 | -2,924 | -- | -- |
| Others | 13,113 | -2,660 | -1,300 | -- | -- |
| Free cash flow | -39,210 | -5,438 | 54,523 | 88,668 | 60,233 |
| Financing cash flow | 33,508 | 6,135 | 2,874 | -19,702 | -7,990 |
| Change in Capital | - | - | - | -- | -- |
| Net Change in Debt | 27,309 | 271 | -2,075 | -19,702 | -7,990 |
| Others | 6,199 | 5,864 | 4,948 | -- | -- |
| Exchange influence | -392 | 3,715 | -1,846 | -- | -- |
| Net increase in cash | 3,144 | -1,038 | 53,172 | 68,967 | 52,243 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||
| Revenue growth | -20.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 20.7 | 18.2 |
| Operating profit growth | -44.5 | -10.8 | -14.8 | 52.0 | 42.0 |
| Net profit growth | -18.7 | -7.8 | 5.2 | 138.4 | 12.4 |
| Profitability (%) | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 34.9 | 32.6 | 29.0 | 33.5 | 37.4 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 26.0 | 22.2 | 18.5 | 23.3 | 28.0 |
| Net profit margin | 27.4 | 20.3 | 17.6 | 31.6 | 25.6 |
| Key Ratio (%) | |||||
| ROA | 10.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 14.5 | 13.5 |
| ROE | 17.0 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 20.8 | 19.3 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Interest Coverage | 45 | 48 | 64 | 111 | 146 |
| Current Ratio | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Net debt/equity | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash |
Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong Company
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Telephone
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evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
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