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報告_Daiwa_聯詠3034_20260806

更新 2026-08-07

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原始內容

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics (3034 TT)

Target price:

TWD515.00 (from TWD430.00)

Share price (6 Aug): TWD543.00 |

Up/downside: -5.2%

Rebalancing still yet resilience on share gain

  • 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance all upbeat
  • Consumer rebalancing offset by high-end smartphone share gain
  • Reiterating Hold (3) rating with a higher 12M TP of TWD515

What's new: Novatek disclosed upbeat 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance thanks to continued supply-chain cost pass-through, as well as share gain in the high-end smartphone OLED display driver (D/D) market. Though we raise forecasts and TP to reflect these unusual business dynamics amid the 'silicon inflation', we remain comfortable with our Hold (3) rating. That said, we are structurally positive on its leading position in design and technology for SoC diversification to cope with the D/D competition.

What's the impact: Results and guidance all beat yet ... Novatek reported 2Q26 EPS of TWD10.4, beating our / consensus estimates by 31%/36% thanks to robust gross margin (GM) that beat guidance (38-41%) and market expectation on supply-chain cost pass-through, favourable SoC mix and low-cost inventory, as well as frugal opex control and higher nonoperating gains associated with investment and dividend incomes (table on p.2). Guidance calls for 3Q26 revenue to still grow 5-9% QoQ regardless of a demand slowdown in the consumer space. Yet guided GM of 38.5-41.5% implies a QoQ drop due to no more low-cost inventory and an unfavourable mix as small-and-medium D/D will drive the growth, while SoC revenue will be flat and large D/D will drop QoQ, per management.

… business dynamics don't seem to be structural. While our view calling for a demand rebalancing across TV and PC in the consumer space after customers' order pull-in in 1H26 appears to be materialising, per management's comments at today's call, Novatek's share gain in the highend smartphone OLED D/D market looks to be helping it offset the impact, with extra delta to be contributed by the continued pass-through of wafer and OSAT cost hikes through the supply chain. We therefore lift our 202628E EPS by 2-21% but view these dynamics as unusual amid the 'silicon inflation' environment. That said, we remain structurally positive on Novatek's leading position in design capability and process technology for diversification into a broadened SoC portfolio to cope with any intense D/D competition, including machine-vision solutions for applications from surveillance to drones, smart wearables, smart appliances to robotics.

What we recommend: Given our forecast revisions, we raise our 12M TP for Novatek to TWD515 (previous: TWD430), still based on our 4-quarter forward PER target of 13x. We reaffirm our Hold (3) rating with key upside/downside risks of any further cost pass-through/deteriorated enddemand on commodity price hikes.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 20-24% above the consensus, as we believe the street has yet to factor in the full effect of the cost passthrough.

Daiwa

5

3

Hold

Rick Hsu

Rick Hsu

(886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sharon Kao (886) 2 8758 6255 sharon.kao@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 5.5 9.9 8.1
Net profit change 20.5 14.1 2.2
Core EPS (FD) change 20.5 14.1 2.2

Source: Daiwa forecasts

報告_Daiwa_聯詠3034_20260806_001
12-month range 361.00-567.00
Market cap (USDbn) 10.23
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 101.63
Shares outstanding (m) 608
Major shareholder Polaris Securities Inv. Trust (4.2%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 113,207 135,074 150,682
Operating profit (m) 23,850 27,380 30,249
Net profit (m) 22,065 23,821 26,253
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 36.240 39.123 43.118
EPS change (%) 35.0 8.0 10.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 23.9 19.9 20.5
PER (x) 15.0 13.9 12.6
Dividend yield (%) 4.2 4.7 5.3
DPS 23.0 25.5 29.0
PBR (x) 4.4 3.9 3.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 9.5 8.1
ROE (%) 30.7 29.8 29.7

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Novatek: quarterly P&L estimates and forecasts

Daiwa

TWDm 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 23,145 28,660 31,052 30,350 29,911 33,605 35,910 35,648 100,663 113,207 135,074 150,682
COGS -14,105 -16,503 -18,333 -18,182 -17,987 -20,361 -21,745 -21,572 -62,755 -67,123 -81,666 -90,933
Gross profit 9,040 12,157 12,719 12,168 11,924 13,244 14,165 14,076 37,908 46,084 53,409 59,749
Opex -5,012 -5,691 -5,869 -5,662 -5,727 -6,337 -6,886 -7,078 -19,671 -22,234 -26,028 -29,500
Operating profit 4,028 6,466 6,850 6,506 6,197 6,907 7,279 6,998 18,237 23,850 27,380 30,249
Pretax profit 4,389 7,782 7,348 7,004 6,495 7,205 7,577 7,296 19,534 26,524 28,572 31,441
Income taxes -622 -1,454 -1,220 -1,163 -1,072 -1,203 -1,273 -1,204 -3,186 -4,459 -4,752 -5,188
Net profit 3,767 6,328 6,129 5,842 5,423 6,001 6,304 6,092 16,348 22,065 23,821 26,253
FD O/S (m) 609 609 609 609 609 609 609 609 609 609 609 609
FD EPS (TWD) 6.19 10.39 10.07 9.59 8.91 9.86 10.35 10.01 26.85 36.24 39.12 43.12
Revenue mix
Large D/D 23% 20% 21% 21% 19% 20% 21% 20% 23% 21% 20% 17%
Small/medium D/D 33% 28% 31% 32% 32% 31% 30% 30% 40% 31% 31% 34%
SoC 44% 52% 47% 47% 49% 49% 49% 50% 36% 48% 49% 49%
Margin
Gross 39.1% 42.4% 41.0% 40.1% 39.9% 39.4% 39.4% 39.5% 37.7% 40.7% 39.5% 39.7%
Opex -21.7% -19.9% -18.9% -18.7% -19.1% -18.9% -19.2% -19.9% -19.5% -19.6% -19.3% -19.6%
Operating 17.4% 22.6% 22.1% 21.4% 20.7% 20.6% 20.3% 19.6% 18.1% 21.1% 20.3% 20.1%
Net 16.3% 22.1% 19.7% 19.2% 18.1% 17.9% 17.6% 17.1% 16.2% 19.5% 17.6% 17.4%
Growth (QoQ)
Revenue 1% 24% 8% -2% -1% 12% 7% -1%
Gross profit 4% 34% 5% -4% -2% 11% 7% -1%
Operating profit 4% 61% 6% -5% -5% 11% 5% -4%
Net profit 2% 68% -3% -5% -7% 11% 5% -3%
FD EPS 2% 68% -3% -5% -7% 11% 5% -3%
Growth (YoY)
Revenue -15% 10% 26% 33% 29% 17% 16% 17% -2% 12% 19% 12%
Gross profit -16% 28% 43% 40% 32% 9% 11% 16% -9% 22% 16% 12%
Operating profit -29% 34% 78% 68% 54% 7% 6% 8% -16% 31% 15% 10%
Net profit -28% 69% 68% 58% 44% -5% 3% 4% -19% 35% 8% 10%
FD EPS -28% 69% 68% 58% 44% -5% 3% 4% -19% 35% 8% 10%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Novatek: 2Q26 results review and 3Q26 guidance check

2Q26 2Q26 2Q26 Variance Variance Growth Growth 3Q26E 3Q26E
TWDm Actual Daiwa Consensus Daiwa Consensus QoQ YoY Guidance Daiwa (previous)
Revenue 28,660 28,412 27,980 1% 2% 24% 10% Revenue = TWD30.0-31.2bn c.TWD28bn
Gross profit 12,157 11,198 11,083 9% 10% 34% 28% GM=38.5-41.5% 39.5%
Opex 5,691 5,910 5,857 -4% -3% 14% 22% OPM=19-22% 20.1%
Operating profit 6,466 5,288 5,226 22% 24% 61% 34%
Pretax profit 7,782 5,786 5,645 34% 38% 77% 69%
Net profit 6,328 4,825 4,640 31% 36% 68% 69%
Adjusted EPS (TWD) 10.39 7.93 7.62 31% 36% 68% 69%
Margin
Gross 42.4% 39.4% 39.6% 3.0% 2.8%
Operating 22.6% 18.6% 18.7% 3.9% 3.9%
Net 22.1% 17.0% 16.6% 5.1% 5.5%
Revenue mix*
Large D/D 22%
Small/medium D/D 43%
SoC 35%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Note: * D/D = display driver IC, SoC = system on a chip

Novatek: quarterly gross margin trend

報告_Daiwa_聯詠3034_20260806_002

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Novatek Microelectronics (3034 TT): 6 August 2026

Novatek: 4-quarter forward PER bands

報告_Daiwa_聯詠3034_20260806_003

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Large-size D/D shipment (mn unit) 3,520 2,319 2,708 2,693 2,746 2,960 3,217 3,326
Large-size D/D ASP (USD) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Small-size D/D shipment (mn unit) 557 442 441 415 485 419 465 612

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Large-size D/D Revenue 40,778 29,566 29,103 25,947 23,566 23,998 27,086 25,974
SoC Revenue 43,653 37,265 43,408 39,568 36,527 54,236 66,390 74,096
Other Revenue 50,935 43,126 37,918 37,273 40,570 34,973 41,599 50,612
Total Revenue 135,366 109,957 110,429 102,788 100,663 113,207 135,074 150,682
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (67,974) (59,015) (78,184) (61,315) (62,755) (67,123) (81,666) (90,933)
SG&A (3,018) (2,802) (2,759) (2,859) (2,946) (3,069) (3,427) (3,839)
Other op.expenses (16,601) (15,410) (20,565) (16,807) (16,725) (19,165) (22,601) (25,661)
Operating profit 47,773 32,729 8,921 21,806 18,237 23,850 27,380 30,249
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 107 509 1,234 1,296 1,019 1,460 1,192 1,192
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 234 1,274 336 776 278 1,214 0 0
Pre-tax profit 48,115 34,511 10,490 23,878 19,534 26,524 28,572 31,441
Tax (9,249) (6,542) (6,024) (3,784) (3,186) (4,459) (4,752) (5,188)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 38,866 27,970 4,466 20,094 16,348 22,065 23,821 26,253
Net profit (adjusted) 38,866 27,970 4,466 20,094 16,348 22,065 23,821 26,253
EPS (reported)(TWD) 63.771 45.868 7.331 32.991 26.849 36.240 39.123 43.118
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 63.771 45.868 7.331 32.991 26.849 36.240 39.123 43.118
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 63.771 45.868 7.331 32.991 26.849 36.240 39.123 43.118
DPS (TWD) 15.576 51.393 36.959 31.971 27.984 22.984 25.482 28.980
EBIT 47,773 32,729 8,921 21,806 18,237 23,850 27,380 30,249
EBITDA 48,874 33,961 10,261 23,120 19,573 25,302 29,014 32,068

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 48,115 34,511 10,490 23,878 19,534 26,524 28,572 31,441
Depreciation and amortisation 1,101 1,233 1,340 1,314 1,336 1,452 1,633 1,819
Tax paid (9,249) (6,542) (6,024) (3,784) (3,186) (4,459) (4,752) (5,188)
Change in working capital (8,976) 784 7,092 (5,433) (2,047) 6,454 (12,928) 8,197
Other operational CF items 10,731 (7,295) 17,084 678 (2,008) 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 41,721 22,691 29,981 16,652 13,629 29,972 12,526 36,269
Capex (845) (839) (808) (1,175) (1,211) (679) (810) (904)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (13) (258) (201) 0 (154) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (7,556) (1,770) (693) 326 134 (250) (250) (250)
Cash flow from investing (8,414) (2,867) (1,702) (849) (1,232) (929) (1,060) (1,154)
Change in debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (9,493) (31,338) (22,515) (19,472) (17,038) (13,994) (15,515) (17,645)
Other financing CF items 13,447 531 (1,037) (1,484) (1,703) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 3,955 (30,807) (23,552) (20,956) (18,741) (13,994) (15,515) (17,645)
Forex effect/others (8) 25 (8) 34 (8) 0 0 0
Change in cash 37,254 (10,958) 4,719 (5,119) (6,352) 15,048 (4,050) 17,470
Free cash flow 40,876 21,852 29,173 15,478 12,417 29,292 11,716 35,365

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Novatek Microelectronics (3034 TT): 6 August 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 61,672 51,483 54,738 49,048 42,697 57,745 53,695 71,165
Inventory 14,186 12,029 8,551 8,701 8,641 10,117 12,705 12,707
Accounts receivable 23,572 15,765 16,935 20,274 21,099 19,842 29,007 25,486
Other current assets 685 607 825 1,018 1,104 1,104 1,104 1,104
Total current assets 100,115 79,884 81,048 79,041 73,540 88,807 96,511 110,462
Fixed assets 6,906 7,052 6,876 7,023 7,210 7,017 6,848 6,661
Goodwill & intangibles 2,485 2,432 2,509 2,609 2,652 2,321 1,918 1,441
Other non-current assets 11,087 11,178 14,009 13,728 13,964 13,964 13,964 13,964
Total assets 120,593 100,546 104,443 102,401 97,366 112,110 119,240 132,527
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 27,123 15,655 19,870 17,664 15,788 22,461 21,286 25,965
Other current liabilities 8,786 8,777 5,869 6,700 4,064 4,064 4,064 4,064
Total current liabilities 35,909 24,432 25,739 24,364 19,851 26,525 25,350 30,028
Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 14,233 10,544 11,487 10,113 9,775 9,775 9,775 9,775
Total liabilities 50,142 34,976 37,226 34,477 29,627 36,300 35,125 39,804
Share capital 6,085 6,085 6,085 6,085 6,085 6,085 6,085 6,085
Reserves/R.E./others 64,366 59,485 61,132 61,838 61,654 69,725 78,030 86,639
Shareholders' equity 70,451 65,570 67,217 67,923 67,739 75,810 84,115 92,724
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 120,593 100,546 104,443 102,401 97,366 112,110 119,240 132,527
EV 268,716 278,904 275,650 281,339 287,691 272,643 276,692 259,222
Net debt/(cash) (61,672) (51,483) (54,738) (49,048) (42,697) (57,745) (53,695) (71,165)
BVPS (TWD) 115.776 107.755 110.461 111.622 111.319 124.596 138.246 152.394

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 69.3 (18.8) 0.4 (6.9) (2.1) 12.5 19.3 11.6
EBITDA (YoY) 209.7 (30.5) (69.8) 125.3 (15.3) 29.3 14.7 10.5
Operating profit (YoY) 223.3 (31.5) (72.7) 144.4 (16.4) 30.8 14.8 10.5
Net profit (YoY) 228.9 (28.0) (84.0) 349.9 (18.6) 35.0 8.0 10.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 228.7 (28.1) (84.0) 350.0 (18.6) 35.0 8.0 10.2
Gross-profit margin 49.8 46.3 29.2 40.3 37.7 40.7 39.5 39.7
EBITDA margin 36.1 30.9 9.3 22.5 19.4 22.4 21.5 21.3
Operating-profit margin 35.3 29.8 8.1 21.2 18.1 21.1 20.3 20.1
Net profit margin 28.7 25.4 4.0 19.5 16.2 19.5 17.6 17.4
ROAE 70.4 41.1 6.7 29.7 24.1 30.7 29.8 29.7
ROAA 43.5 25.3 4.4 19.4 16.4 21.1 20.6 20.9
ROCE 86.5 48.1 13.4 32.3 26.9 33.2 34.2 34.2
ROIC n.a n.a 28.6 n.a 69.5 92.1 94.2 97.2
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 19.2 19.0 57.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 16.6 16.5
Accounts receivable (days) 49.8 65.3 54.0 66.1 75.0 66.0 66.0 66.0
Current ratio (x) 2.8 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.3 3.8 3.7
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 80.3 80.6 80.5 436.0 84.8 85.6 70.3 74.1
Free cash flow yield 12.4 6.6 8.8 4.7 3.8 8.9 3.5 10.7

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1997, Novatek is a fabless IC-design company. Its product range encompasses LCD-driver and control ICs, as well as video display, commercial and IM products.

Novatek Microelectronics (3034 TT): 6 August 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 1 Novatek's Board of Directors (BoD) has 9 members with a diverse background, including 3 members who are independent directors, representing 33% of total directors, higher than the regulatory requirement of at least 20%. Its Chairman and President are not the same person and most of its directors are not executive management. It has established the Audit Committee and Remuneration Committee, both of which are composed of independent directors. To strengthen the functionality of the Board, Novatek carries out the performance evaluation of its BoD every year by passing the "Guidelines for Director Performance Evaluation" in 2019, and the internal results of the evaluation were 'Excellent' in 2023.
G Capital management 1 In the past 2018-2023 years, Novatek's dividend payout ratios were above 80%. As a fabless company, it does not need high capital expenditures for manufacturing sites. Thus, we see its dividend policy with high payout ratio as appropriate.
G Related party & transaction 3 Novatek has related-party transactions with one of its directors, United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) and its related parties. The transaction amount accounted for 42% and 39% of Novatek's total purchases in 2021 and 2022, respectively, implying Novatek is highly reliant on UMC as a supplier. Thus, Novatek may have limited bargaining power for transactions with UMC, which may increase the possibility of unfair transactions and thus result in corporate governance issues.
S Supply chain management 2 Novatek has established a Responsible Business Alliance self-assessment questionnaire and supply chain risk assessment for its suppliers. To improve its supply chain management, it formulated the "Novatek Supplier Code of Conduct" and a total of 45 suppliers completed the signing, with a signing rate of 100% in 2022.
E Water & wastewater management 2 As a fabless without manufacturing plants, Novatek does not produce much of wastewater compared to manufacturing companies, and thus has a relatively limited impact to the environment. It has established management procedures for wastewater with effective disposal measures.
E Waste & hazardous materials management 1 As a fabless company, Novatek does not manufacture its product but leverages on its suppliers. The company has established a green product management system and requested its suppliers to comply with its "Novatek Hazardous Substances Management Rules". It conducts a regular review of operations to ensure the effectiveness of the management system. It continuously complies with RoHS/halogen-free and REACH requirements.
E GHG emissions 1 The major source of Novatek's GHG emissions is externally purchased electricity, which accounted for 98% of its total emissions in 2022. Thus, electricity consumption reduction measures are essential for Novatek to reduce GHG emissions. The company achieved the annual energy-saving target of 1%. To reduce GHG emissions by increasing the percentage of renewable energy, it targets to complete its evaluation of its Plan for the Use of Renewable Energy, and start using renewable energy in 2022. In addition, the company aims to achieve net- zero emission in 2050.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 6 Feb 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Novatek Microelectronics (3034 TT): 6 August 2026

Daiwa