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報告_Daiwa_聯茂6213_3Q26預覽_20261014

更新 2026-10-15

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_聯茂6213_3Q26預覽_20261014_original.pdf

原始內容

ITEQ Corp (6213 TT)

Target price: TWD1,110.00 (from TWD600.00)

Shareprice(14Oct):TWD856.00 | Up/downside:+29.7%

3Q26 results preview: better-than-expected price hikes

  • Expecting better price hikes from 2H26 to 1H27
  • Spec upgrades driven by new CPU platform adoption in 2027
  • Reiterating our Buy (1) rating; raising our 12M TP to TWD1,110

What's new: We preview ITEQ's 3Q26 results (due on 6 November). In our previous note, 'Upgrading: strong beat in 2Q26 with improving outlook' (7 August), we had underestimated the magnitude and durability of price hikes for E-glass and M4-and-below CCL. We raise our 2026-28E earnings by 43-70% to reflect better-than-expected pricing and gross margin performance, which leads to our higher TP of TWD1,110 (from TWD600).

What's the impact: Ongoing price hike of E-glass and M4-and-below

CCL. This week, a major Japanese copper-clad laminate (CCL) vendor raised its entry-level CCL price by 200% to catch up with other global peers' price hike level. One of the Chinese peers is also having a constant c.10% ASP hike on a monthly basis in 2026. We are increasingly confident in the management's target for its blended price hike in 2H26. We now forecast c.30%/20% price hikes in 3Q26E and 4Q26E, respectively (vs. our previous estimates of 20%/10%). Looking ahead, we expect another 10% price hike per quarter in 1H27 (c.20% price hike in total), while pricing should gradually stabilise in 2H27 given the rising supply of E-glass, in our view. While the visibility towards 2H27 and 2028 remains relatively limited, we believe the key upside risks to our current forecast will be the strongerthan-expected price hike magnitude and durability of the current up-cycle.

3Q26 results preview. After factoring in stronger-than-expected price hikes, ITEQ's 3Q26 revenue grew c.35% QoQ, mainly driven by the 30% price hike despite utilisation rate staying at c.75%. We lift our gross margin forecast to c.30.3% (from 24.7% in our August note), in line with the August preliminary results' pre-tax margin of 25.8%. With price hikes continuing, we expect the 4Q26E gross margin to expand to c.35%. Given disciplined capacity expansion through 2028, we expect the higher GM to be sustained through 2028. Beyond price hike, we believe the key longer-term growth drivers include: a) rising regular server demand and new platform adoption (using M7 grade CCL) in 2027; and b) M9 certification by more clients.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 43-70% to factor in the price hikes. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating, and raise our 12M TP to TWD1,110 (from TWD600), based on an unchanged target PER of 22x (higher than the range during the past 12 months of 5-18x) applied to our 1year-forward EPS. While we expect the current upcycle will eventually ease starting from mid-2027, we remain positive on the near-term price outlook. Key downside risk: weaker-than-expected regular server demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 36-60% above the Bloomberg consensus, mainly due to our more aggressive view on ITEQ's price hikes and margin profile.

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Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Thomas Kim (886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 9.8 19.6 19.7
Net profit change 43.4 69.8 50.0
Core EPS (FD) change 43.2 69.6 49.8

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 97.90-856.00
Market cap (USDbn) 9.66
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 268.04
Shares outstanding (m) 364
Major shareholder Yu Chang Investment Co Ltd (7.4%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 54,661 84,949 114,940
Operating profit (m) 11,424 26,025 34,121
Net profit (m) 7,932 18,013 23,594
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 21.828 49.553 64.907
EPS change (%) 424.6 127.0 31.0
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 36.4 58.8 60.4
PER (x) 39.2 17.3 13.2
Dividend yield (%) 1.9 4.3 5.7
DPS 16.4 37.2 48.7
PBR (x) 10.9 7.6 6.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.2 11.1 8.6
ROE (%) 31.9 51.8 50.7

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

ITEQ: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. the consensus

(TWDm) 2026E - Previous 2026E - New 2026E - Consensus 2027E - Previous 2027E - New 2027E - Consensus 2028E - Previous 2028E - New 2028E - Consensus
Revenue 49,782 54,661 50,496 71,038 84,949 75,813 96,034 114,940 90,130
Diff (%) 9.8% 8.2% 19.6% 12.0% 19.7% 27.5%
Gross Margin (%) 22.2% 26.8% 23.6% 27.3% 36.1% 28.4% 29.3% 34.7% 28.6%
Operating profit 7,952 11,424 8,582 15,312 26,025 16,726 22,746 34,121 21,499
Op Margin (%) 16.0% 20.9% 17.0% 21.6% 30.6% 22.1% 23.7% 29.7% 23.9%
Net profit 5,532 7,932 5,819 10,608 18,013 11,340 15,730 23,594 14,709
EPS (TWD) 15.24 21.82 16.01 29.22 49.55 31.20 43.34 64.91 40.47
Diff (%) 43.2% 36.4% 69.6% 58.8% 49.8% 60.4%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

ITEQ: quarterly and annual P&L statement

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q 2026E - 2Q 2026E - 3QE 2026E - 4QE 2027E - 1QE 2027E - 2QE 2027E - 3QE 2027E - 4QE 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net revenue 9,143 11,530 15,617 18,371 18,653 20,297 22,642 23,357 33,098 54,661 84,949 114,940
COGS -8,099 -8,991 -10,891 -12,029 -12,021 -12,971 -14,363 -14,966 -28,314 -40,010 -54,322 -75,072
Gross profit 1,044 2,539 4,726 6,341 6,631 7,326 8,278 8,391 4,785 14,651 30,626 39,868
Operating expenses 620 691 906 1,010 1,045 1,096 1,223 1,238 2,402 3,227 4,601 5,747
Operating profit 424 1,848 3,821 5,331 5,587 6,230 7,056 7,153 2,383 11,424 26,025 34,121
Non-operating profit 59 -14 16 18 18 19 21 22 -16 79 81 73
Pre-tax profit 483 1,834 3,836 5,349 5,605 6,249 7,077 7,175 2,367 11,502 26,106 34,194
Net profit 315 1,279 2,647 3,691 3,867 4,312 4,883 4,951 1,510 7,932 18,013 23,594
Net EPS (TWD) 0.87 3.52 7.28 10.15 10.64 11.86 13.43 13.62 4.16 21.82 49.55 64.91
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 11.4% 22.0% 30.3% 34.5% 35.6% 36.1% 36.6% 35.9% 14.5% 26.8% 36.1% 34.7%
Operating margin 4.6% 16.0% 24.5% 29.0% 30.0% 30.7% 31.2% 30.6% 7.2% 20.9% 30.6% 29.7%
Pre-tax margin 5.3% 15.9% 24.6% 29.1% 30.0% 30.8% 31.3% 30.7% 7.2% 21.0% 30.7% 29.7%
Net margin 3.4% 11.1% 16.9% 20.1% 20.7% 21.2% 21.6% 21.2% 4.6% 14.5% 21.2% 20.5%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 21% 30% 102% 106% 104% 76% 45% 27% 13% 65% 55% 35%
Gross profit -3% 84% 346% 403% 535% 189% 75% 32% 30% 206% 109% 30%
Operating profit -19% 135% 757% 750% 1217% 237% 85% 34% 76% 379% 128% 31%
Pre-tax profit -10% 174% 636% 734% 1059% 241% 84% 34% 80% 386% 127% 31%
Net profit -7% 204% 715% 762% 1130% 237% 84% 34% 84% 425% 127% 31%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 3% 26% 35% 18% 2% 9% 12% 3%
Gross profit -17% 143% 86% 34% 5% 10% 13% 1%
Operating profit -32% 336% 107% 40% 5% 12% 13% 1%
Pre-tax profit -25% 279% 109% 39% 5% 11% 13% 1%
Net profit -27% 307% 107% 39% 5% 11% 13% 1%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

ITEQ: 1-year forward PER bands

ITEQ: revenue breakdown by product

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (mn) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipment (mn) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (mn) 1,655 1,437 1,380 1,437 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Infrastructure 17,295 16,881 15,003 18,682 22,598 40,112 67,244 97,489
Consumer 8,658 5,644 3,878 3,511 3,454 4,213 4,701 4,206
Other Revenue 6,571 6,604 6,198 7,184 7,046 10,336 13,004 13,245
Total Revenue 32,525 29,130 25,079 29,378 33,098 54,661 84,949 114,940
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (26,545) (25,190) (21,973) (25,688) (28,314) (40,010) (54,322) (75,072)
SG&A (1,654) (1,511) (1,580) (1,644) (1,605) (907) 0 0
Other op.expenses (506) (533) (531) (696) (797) (2,321) (4,601) (5,747)
Operating profit 3,819 1,896 995 1,351 2,383 11,424 26,025 34,121
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (81) (107) (143) (174) (145) (124) (128) (129)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 76 526 301 140 129 203 209 202
Pre-tax profit 3,815 2,315 1,152 1,317 2,367 11,502 26,106 34,194
Tax (670) (460) (476) (496) (856) (3,571) (8,093) (10,600)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 3,145 1,855 677 822 1,510 7,932 18,013 23,594
Net profit (adjusted) 3,145 1,855 677 822 1,510 7,932 18,013 23,594
EPS (reported)(TWD) 8.997 4.940 1.864 2.264 4.161 21.820 49.553 64.907
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 8.997 4.940 1.864 2.264 4.161 21.820 49.553 64.907
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 9.221 4.899 1.864 2.264 4.161 21.828 49.553 64.907
DPS (TWD) 5.000 3.000 1.500 1.800 2.999 16.369 37.165 48.680
EBIT 3,819 1,896 995 1,351 2,383 11,424 26,025 34,121
EBITDA 4,767 2,966 2,158 2,824 3,969 13,080 27,764 35,947

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 3,815 2,315 1,152 1,317 2,367 11,502 26,106 34,194
Depreciation and amortisation 948 1,069 1,163 1,474 1,586 1,656 1,739 1,826
Tax paid (670) (460) (476) (496) (856) (3,571) (8,093) (10,600)
Change in working capital 7,455 (7,092) (114) 1,041 6,742 21,005 14,579 28,738
Other operational CF items (8,395) 10,597 371 (2,411) (7,569) (35,115) (20,965) (41,334)
Cash flow from operations 3,153 6,429 2,097 925 2,269 (4,522) 13,366 12,824
Capex (4,948) (1,325) (567) (677) (325) (66) (204) (163)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (8) 51 (2) (11) 17 (5) 6 1
Other investing CF items (7) (1,947) (679) (1,008) (1,174) (1,969) 0 0
Cash flow from investing (4,964) (3,221) (1,248) (1,696) (1,482) (2,039) (198) (163)
Change in debt (2,733) 901 1,110 217 148 2,190 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (1,665) (1,915) (1,089) (544) (653) (1,090) (5,950) (13,510)
Other financing CF items 7,330 (381) (192) (61) (30) 366 0 0
Cash flow from financing 2,933 (1,395) (171) (389) (535) 1,466 (5,950) (13,510)
Forex effect/others 14 (1,022) (297) 149 154 888 669 694
Change in cash 1,136 791 380 (1,011) 406 (4,208) 7,887 (154)
Free cash flow (1,795) 5,104 1,529 248 1,944 (4,588) 13,162 12,661

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 4,428 5,217 5,685 4,648 4,994 1,966 9,853 9,698
Inventory 5,167 2,731 3,014 3,763 4,890 7,250 9,290 13,478
Accounts receivable 13,260 12,119 11,498 12,790 15,009 30,790 39,232 55,711
Other current assets 1,520 1,401 1,110 1,058 1,078 914 914 914
Total current assets 24,375 21,469 21,306 22,259 25,972 40,920 59,289 79,802
Fixed assets 11,832 11,834 11,995 12,519 12,157 11,568 10,033 8,370
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 30 80 78 67 84 93 87 86
Total assets 36,237 33,384 33,380 34,844 38,213 52,581 69,409 88,258
Short-term debt 2,131 2,483 2,921 3,983 3,643 5,564 5,564 5,564
Accounts payable 11,380 7,562 7,170 7,158 9,619 14,039 18,135 26,206
Other current liabilities 753 838 449 244 298 661 661 661
Total current liabilities 14,265 10,883 10,540 11,385 13,561 20,264 24,360 32,431
Long-term debt 0 1,677 2,346 1,592 2,102 2,431 2,431 2,431
Other non-current liabilities 658 713 1,054 1,221 1,284 1,463 1,463 1,463
Total liabilities 14,923 13,273 13,940 14,198 16,946 24,158 28,254 36,325
Share capital 3,830 3,630 3,630 3,630 3,632 3,636 3,636 3,636
Reserves/R.E./others 17,485 16,481 15,810 17,016 17,635 24,788 37,519 48,298
Shareholders' equity 21,315 20,111 19,440 20,646 21,267 28,423 41,155 51,933
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 36,237 33,384 33,380 34,844 38,213 52,581 69,409 88,258
EV 308,866 310,105 310,746 312,090 311,914 317,192 309,305 309,459
Net debt/(cash) (2,297) (1,058) (417) 928 751 6,029 (1,858) (1,704)
BVPS (TWD) 60.981 53.556 53.560 56.883 58.589 78.192 113.216 142.867

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 27.9 (10.4) (13.9) 17.1 12.7 65.1 55.4 35.3
EBITDA (YoY) 19.3 (37.8) (27.2) 30.9 40.5 229.6 112.3 29.5
Operating profit (YoY) 18.7 (50.3) (47.5) 35.8 76.4 379.4 127.8 31.1
Net profit (YoY) 18.0 (41.0) (63.5) 21.5 83.8 425.2 127.1 31.0
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 12.0 (46.9) (61.9) 21.5 83.8 424.6 127.0 31.0
Gross-profit margin 18.4 13.5 12.4 12.6 14.5 26.8 36.1 34.7
EBITDA margin 14.7 10.2 8.6 9.6 12.0 23.9 32.7 31.3
Operating-profit margin 11.7 6.5 4.0 4.6 7.2 20.9 30.6 29.7
Net profit margin 9.7 6.4 2.7 2.8 4.6 14.5 21.2 20.5
ROAE 18.1 9.0 3.4 4.1 7.2 31.9 51.8 50.7
ROAA 10.2 5.3 2.0 2.4 4.1 17.5 29.5 29.9
ROCE 18.7 7.9 4.1 5.3 9.0 36.0 60.8 62.6
ROIC 19.0 8.0 3.1 4.2 7.0 27.9 48.7 52.6
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash 4.8 3.6 25.4 net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 17.6 19.9 41.3 37.6 36.2 31.0 31.0 31.0
Accounts receivable (days) 135.1 159.0 171.9 150.9 153.3 152.9 150.4 150.7
Current ratio (x) 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.5
Net interest cover (x) 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.7
Net dividend payout 55.6 61.0 80.6 79.6 72.1 75.0 75.0 75.0
Free cash flow yield n.a. 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.6 n.a. 4.2 4.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

ITEQ Corporation is a leading manufacturer of high performance copper clad laminate materials used for the fabrication of printed circuit boards and was founded in April of 1997. ITEQ's products find use in many different application areas, such as computational and communications applications, Radio Frequency and Microwave devices, Automotive applications, and High Density Interconnect solutions.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 2 All board members implement the company's operation faithfully and fulfil their obligations with discipline and care. Independent directors obey related laws and company regulations to protect the rights of the company and stockholders.
G Capital management 2 ITEQ paid a cash DPS of TWD3 in 2025, representing a 72% payout ratio. We believe ITEQ will sustain a similar payout level of c.75% over 2026-28E. We see its balance between investment and dividend as appropriate.
Related party & transaction 2 ITEQ's sales to related parties were insignificant versus its total revenue.
S Supplychain management 2 ITEQ requires all major raw material suppliers to comply with ESG, ethics, and regulatory standards. Annual RBA audits were conducted for vendors, all rated A-C.
S Datasecurity 1 ITEQ has established an ISO/IEC 27001-certified Information Security Management System, conducts quarterly training, and implements system recovery drills to ensure risk preparedness.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 14 Oct 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company