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報告_Daiwa_聚陽1477_20260731

更新 2026-08-03

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_聚陽1477_20260731_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
Daiwa-1477 20260731_001.png 30KB 真資料圖 Share price performance:聚陽股價(藍線)vs Relative to TWSE Index(橘色虛線)走勢圖,2025/07–2026/07
Daiwa-1477 20260731_002.png 20KB 文字卡 12-month range/Market cap/3m avg daily turnover/Shares outstanding/Major shareholder 數字表格卡(數據與正文表格重複)
Daiwa-1477 20260731_003.png 36KB 真資料圖 Margin trend:毛利率(藍線)vs 營益率(橘線)走勢圖,2017–2028E
Daiwa-1477 20260731_004.png 42KB 真資料圖 1-year-forward PER bands 圖:股價(深藍)疊 8x/12x/16x/20x/24x PER 帶狀線,2018/07–2026/07

原始內容

Taiwan

Makalot Industrial (1477 TT)

Target price:

TWD232.00 (from TWD275.00)

Share price (31 Jul):

TWD219.50 | Up/downside: +5.7%

2Q26 review: order uncertainty continues

  • 2Q26 results beat our forecast but missed the Bloomberg consensus
  • 3Q26 guidance was lowered previously on macro uncertainties
  • Maintaining our Hold (3) call; lowering 12-month TP to TWD232

What's new: Makalot released its updated 2Q26 results on 31 July. We provide an update on its outlook for 3Q26 and 2026 ( see our previous memo on 26 May).

What's the impact: 2Q26 results beat our forecast but missed the Bloomberg consensus. Makalot's 2Q26 revenue of TWD8,166m (-8.2% QoQ, +6.2% YoY) was in line with our forecast but slightly missed the consensus estimate. Its 2Q26 gross margin was 24.4% (vs. 26.1% in 1Q26, 22.0% in 2Q25), beating our estimate of 24.0% but was in line with the consensus estimate of 24.5%. Its operating margin of 13.3% (vs. 15.5% in 1Q26, 12.2% in 2Q25) was higher than our estimate of 12.3% while missing the consensus estimate of 14.0%. Therefore, operating profit of TWD1,086m (-21.1% QoQ, +15.4% YoY) beat our forecast by 9.3% and missed the consensus by 7.9%. Its pre-tax profit of TWD1,072m (-21.0% QoQ, +31.0% YoY) beat our estimate by 11.5% and missed the consensus estimates by 9.0%. Its net income was TWD814m (-24.1% QoQ, +32.2% YoY), 8.2% higher than our forecast but 9.9% lower than the consensus. Its 2Q26 EPS ended at TWD3.3.

Unchanged 3Q26 outlook. Due to geopolitical uncertainties and structural shifts in pricing dynamics, Makalot maintained its 3Q26 guidance: shipments to grow by a mid-single digit rate (4-5%) YoY and ASP to decline by 3%, with a gross margin target of 24%. For 2026, it expects growth in both revenue and net profit. For 2026 shipments, it guides for a low-single digit rate of growth YoY with flat ASP YoY and gross margin of 25%. We lower our 2026-27E EPS after 2-6% factoring in 2Q26 results with a more conservative operating margin assumption. We introduce our 2028 forecasts.

What we recommend: We maintain our Hold (3) rating but lower our 12month TP to TWD232 (from TWD275), now based on a target PER of 15x (from 18x), near the average (19x) of its past-3-year PER trading range of 14-26x on top of its earnings momentum and order uncertainty in an inflationary environment and applied to our 1-year-forward EPS forecast. However, we believe its dividend yield of 6.8-7.5% over 2026-28E should be its share price support. Key upside/downside risks: higher-/fewer-thanexpected orders from key clients, inflation and tariffs.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 8-15% below the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our more conservative revenue, gross and operating margin expansion assumptions.

31 July 2026

5

3

Hold

Helen Chien

Helen Chien (886) 2 8758 6254

helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (1.0) (1.0) n.a.
Net profit change (2.3) (5.8) n.a.
Core EPS (FD) change (2.3) (5.8) n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

Daiwa-1477 20260731_001
Daiwa-1477 20260731_002
12-month range 210.00-338.50
Market cap (USDbn) 1.67
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 18.35
Shares outstanding (m) 247
Major shareholder Li-Pian Zhou (Chairman) (2.8%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 34,799 36,539 38,366
Operating profit (m) 4,802 5,152 5,563
Net profit (m) 3,707 3,926 4,254
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 14.966 15.847 17.173
EPS change (%) 2.6 5.9 8.4
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (8.1) (11.3) (15.3)
PER (x) 14.7 13.9 12.8
Dividend yield (%) 6.8 7.2 7.5
DPS 15.0 15.9 16.4
PBR (x) 3.8 3.7 3.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 9.2 8.5
ROE (%) 26.1 27.0 28.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Makalot: revenue and earnings forecasts revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) New Previous Change New Previous Change New Previous Change
ASP (TWD/dozen) 1,907 1,888 1.0% 1,907 1,888 1.0% 1,907 n.a. n.a.
Shipments (m dozen) 18.25 18.61 -1.9% 19.16 19.54 -1.9% 20.12 n.a. n.a.
Sales 34,799 35,133 -1.0% 36,539 36,890 -1.0% 38,366 n.a. n.a.
Gross profit 8,700 8,783 -1.0% 9,208 9,407 -2.1% 9,783 n.a. n.a.
Gross profit margin 25.0% 25.0% 0pp 25.2% 25.5% -0.3pp 25.5% n.a. n.a.
Operating profit 4,802 4,954 -3.1% 5,152 5,423 -5.0% 5,563 n.a. n.a.
Operating profit margin 13.8% 14.1% -0.3pp 14.1% 14.7% -0.6pp 14.5% n.a. n.a.
Net profit 3,707 3,793 -2.3% 3,926 4,168 -5.8% 4,254 n.a. n.a.
Net profit margin 10.7% 10.8% -0.1pp 10.7% 11.3% -0.6pp 11.1% n.a. n.a.
Diluted EPS (TWD) 14.97 15.32 -2.3% 15.85 16.83 -5.8% 17.17 n.a. n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Makalot: 2Q26 results review

(TWDm) 2Q26 results Our forecast Differ Bloomberg consensus Differ
Revenue 8,166 8,100 0.8% 8,413 -2.9%
Gross profit 1,990 1,944 2.4% 2,057 -3.3%
Operating profit 1,086 994 9.3% 1,179 -7.9%
Profit before tax 1,072 961 11.5% 1,178 -9.0%
Net profit 814 753 8.2% 904 -9.9%
Basic EPS 3.30 3.05 8.2% 3.61 -8.4%
Margin
Gross margin 24.4% 24.0% 0.4pp 24.5% -0.1pp
Operating margin 13.3% 12.3% 1pp 14.0% -0.7pp
Pre-tax margin 13.1% 11.9% 1.3pp 14.0% -0.9pp
Net margin 10.0% 9.3% 0.7pp 10.7% -0.8pp

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Makalot: quarterly P&L

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E
Revenue 8,897 8,166 9,000 8,736 9,100 8,600 9,500 9,339 34,799 36,539 38,366
Gross profit 2,326 1,990 2,160 2,224 2,366 2,124 2,309 2,409 8,700 9,208 9,783
Operating profit 1,377 1,086 1,210 1,129 1,366 1,174 1,309 1,303 4,802 5,152 5,563
Pre-tax profit 1,357 1,072 1,188 1,107 1,332 1,141 1,275 1,270 4,724 5,018 5,429
Net profit 1,073 814 928 891 1,044 890 998 994 3,707 3,926 4,254
Basic EPS (TWD) 4.35 3.30 3.76 3.61 4.23 3.61 4.04 4.03 15.03 15.91 17.24
Margin
Gross margin 26.1% 24.4% 24.0% 25.5% 26.0% 24.7% 24.3% 25.8% 25.0% 25.2% 25.5%
Operating margin 15.5% 13.3% 13.4% 12.9% 15.0% 13.7% 13.8% 14.0% 13.8% 14.1% 14.5%
Pre-tax margin 15.3% 13.1% 13.2% 12.7% 14.6% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7% 14.2%
Net margin 12.1% 10.0% 10.3% 10.2% 11.5% 10.4% 10.5% 10.6% 10.7% 10.7% 11.1%
YoY
Revenue -10.3% 6.2% 1.2% 10.2% 2.3% 5.3% 5.6% 6.9% 1.1% 5.0% 5.0%
Gross profit -15.7% 17.4% 8.4% 5.0% 1.7% 6.8% 6.9% 8.3% 1.6% 5.8% 6.3%
Operating profit -12.8% 15.4% 10.8% 5.8% -0.8% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5% 2.6% 7.3% 8.0%
Pre-tax profit -16.1% 31.0% 9.8% 3.1% -1.8% 6.4% 7.3% 14.7% 2.9% 6.2% 8.2%
Net profit -15.5% 32.2% 8.2% 2.5% -2.8% 9.3% 7.5% 11.5% 2.6% 5.9% 8.4%
QoQ
Revenue 12.2% -8.2% 10.2% -2.9% 4.2% -5.5% 10.5% -1.7%
Gross profit 9.8% -14.5% 8.6% 3.0% 6.4% -10.2% 8.7% 4.4%
Operating profit 29.1% -21.1% 11.4% -6.7% 21.0% -14.0% 11.4% -0.4%
Pre-tax profit 26.4% -21.0% 10.9% -6.9% 20.4% -14.4% 11.8% -0.4%
Net profit 23.5% -24.1% 14.0% -4.0% 17.1% -14.7% 12.1% -0.4%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Makalot: margin trend

Daiwa-1477 20260731_003

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Makalot: 1-year-forward PER bands

Daiwa-1477 20260731_004

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Makalot Industrial (1477 TT): 31 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
ASP (TWD) (dozen) 1,732.4 1,980.4 1,932.1 1,995.7 1,907.0 1,907.0 1,907.0 1,907.0
Shipments (m dozen) 16.7 16.2 16.8 17.8 18.1 18.2 19.2 20.1
Consolidated gross margin (%) 22.6 25.7 25.8 25.3 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.5

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
US 22,855 23,421 22,721 24,867 24,118 24,359 25,577 26,856
Japan 4,918 5,775 6,167 6,394 6,202 6,264 6,577 6,906
Other Revenue 1,157 2,887 3,570 4,263 4,108 4,176 4,385 4,604
Total Revenue 28,931 32,083 32,459 35,524 34,428 34,799 36,539 38,366
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (22,396) (23,827) (24,092) (26,532) (25,864) (26,099) (27,331) (28,583)
SG&A (3,154) (3,824) (3,527) (3,691) (3,883) (3,897) (4,056) (4,220)
Other op.expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating profit 3,381 4,432 4,840 5,300 4,681 4,802 5,152 5,563
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (74) (155) (189) (272) (242) (260) (260) (260)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 91 313 376 215 154 181 126 126
Pre-tax profit 3,398 4,589 5,027 5,243 4,592 4,724 5,018 5,429
Tax (720) (1,049) (992) (1,071) (922) (949) (1,008) (1,091)
Min. int./pref. div./others (23) (25) (44) (57) (55) (67) (84) (84)
Net profit (reported) 2,655 3,515 3,991 4,115 3,614 3,707 3,926 4,254
Net profit (adjusted) 2,655 3,515 3,991 4,115 3,614 3,707 3,926 4,254
EPS (reported)(TWD) 11.195 14.532 16.502 16.680 14.650 15.028 15.913 17.245
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 11.195 14.532 16.502 16.680 14.650 15.028 15.913 17.245
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 11.151 14.450 16.432 16.608 14.587 14.966 15.847 17.173
DPS (TWD) 9.500 14.500 16.400 17.100 15.000 15.028 15.913 16.383
EBIT 3,381 4,432 4,840 5,300 4,681 4,802 5,152 5,563
EBITDA 3,912 4,994 5,388 5,865 5,288 5,343 5,730 6,178

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 3,398 4,589 5,027 5,243 4,592 4,724 5,018 5,429
Depreciation and amortisation 530 562 548 565 608 541 578 615
Tax paid (720) (1,049) (992) (1,071) (922) (949) (1,008) (1,091)
Change in working capital 301 (223) 393 (39) 488 (225) (92) (243)
Other operational CF items (497) (165) 809 33 (421) 260 260 260
Cash flow from operations 3,013 3,715 5,785 4,731 4,344 4,351 4,755 4,970
Capex (399) (398) (476) (799) (708) (750) (750) (750)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 4 8 39 8 16 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (1,977) (676) (1,040) 1,969 522 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (2,372) (1,066) (1,478) 1,177 (170) (750) (750) (750)
Change in debt (1,483) (136) (199) (332) 79 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (1,935) (2,298) (3,507) (3,966) (4,185) (3,700) (3,707) (3,926)
Other financing CF items 3,088 (207) (331) (1,870) 21 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (329) (2,640) (4,037) (6,169) (4,084) (3,700) (3,707) (3,926)
Forex effect/others (37) 109 (17) 146 (97) 0 0 0
Change in cash 276 118 254 (115) (8) (100) 298 295
Free cash flow 2,614 3,317 5,309 3,932 3,636 3,601 4,005 4,220

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Makalot Industrial (1477 TT): 31 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 2,809 2,917 3,226 3,102 2,830 2,731 3,029 3,323
Inventory 5,434 5,241 4,843 5,702 5,034 5,345 5,458 5,781
Accounts receivable 1,160 1,199 1,527 829 899 861 929 962
Other current assets 6,757 8,607 8,822 6,459 7,141 7,141 7,141 7,141
Total current assets 16,160 17,963 18,419 16,093 15,905 16,077 16,557 17,207
Fixed assets 5,022 5,227 5,264 5,815 5,978 6,187 6,359 6,495
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 1,041 1,239 1,193 1,290 2,022 2,022 2,022 2,022
Total assets 22,223 24,429 24,876 23,198 23,904 24,286 24,938 25,723
Short-term debt 1,866 1,753 1,553 1,221 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300
Accounts payable 2,237 1,859 2,187 2,276 2,164 2,211 2,301 2,414
Other current liabilities 3,603 4,899 4,857 4,522 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100
Total current liabilities 7,707 8,511 8,597 8,019 8,565 8,612 8,702 8,815
Long-term debt 163 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 557 474 352 411 1,166 1,166 1,166 1,166
Total liabilities 8,427 8,984 8,949 8,429 9,730 9,777 9,867 9,980
Share capital 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,467 2,467 2,467 2,467 2,467
Reserves/R.E./others 11,294 12,939 13,401 12,177 11,578 11,845 12,323 12,912
Shareholders' equity 13,713 15,357 15,819 14,644 14,045 14,312 14,790 15,379
Minority interests 83 88 108 125 129 196 280 364
Total equity & liabilities 22,223 24,429 24,876 23,198 23,904 24,286 24,938 25,723
EV 53,453 53,073 52,584 52,393 52,748 52,915 52,701 52,491
Net debt/(cash) (779) (1,164) (1,673) (1,881) (1,530) (1,430) (1,728) (2,023)
BVPS (TWD) 57.821 63.497 65.408 59.359 56.933 58.015 59.953 62.338

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 16.1 10.9 1.2 9.4 (3.1) 1.1 5.0 5.0
EBITDA (YoY) 22.2 27.7 7.9 8.9 (9.8) 1.0 7.2 7.8
Operating profit (YoY) 26.8 31.1 9.2 9.5 (11.7) 2.6 7.3 8.0
Net profit (YoY) 29.1 32.4 13.6 3.1 (12.2) 2.6 5.9 8.4
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 19.8 29.6 13.7 1.1 (12.2) 2.6 5.9 8.4
Gross-profit margin 22.6 25.7 25.8 25.3 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.5
EBITDA margin 13.5 15.6 16.6 16.5 15.4 15.4 15.7 16.1
Operating-profit margin 11.7 13.8 14.9 14.9 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.5
Net profit margin 9.2 11.0 12.3 11.6 10.5 10.7 10.7 11.1
ROAE 22.3 24.2 25.6 27.0 25.2 26.1 27.0 28.2
ROAA 13.0 15.1 16.2 17.1 15.3 15.4 16.0 16.8
ROCE 23.0 26.8 27.9 31.7 29.8 30.7 32.0 33.3
ROIC 22.2 25.0 27.2 31.1 29.3 29.8 31.2 32.9
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 21.2 22.9 19.7 20.4 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1
Accounts receivable (days) 22.9 13.4 15.3 12.1 9.2 9.2 8.9 9.0
Current ratio (x) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
Net interest cover (x) 46.0 28.5 25.7 19.5 19.3 18.5 19.8 21.4
Net dividend payout 84.9 99.8 99.4 102.5 102.4 100.0 100.0 95.0
Free cash flow yield 4.8 6.1 9.8 7.3 6.7 6.6 7.4 7.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Makalot Industrial (Makalot) is a diversified garment manufacturer for brands and retailers globally. Its major clients include Gap, Fast Retailing, Kohl's, Target, and Walmart.

Makalot Industrial (1477 TT): 31 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 Most directors on the board have relevant experience in the apparel industry. We also see a high female percentage (6 females) among its 15 directors, including 2 of the 3 independent directors. Makalot's Chairman and CEO are the same individual, but we believe the board's stability will be maintained as we note that the CEO has decided to appoint his son, Alex Chou, as his successor.
Capital management 1 Makalot has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 85% (2025: 102.4%), except for 2019, which was severely affected by the global economy, and which impacted the development of the apparel industry. In the future, the company will continue to maintain a stable cash dividend policy with expected payout ratio of 70-90%.
S Related party & transaction 1 Makalot has tapped into its Vietnam fabric suppliers' operations to effectively control material quality and cost for better profitability.
Supply chain management 1 Makalot adopts the Higg Index to evaluate and train its suppliers, and its supplier management policy is set up based on relative agreements. Makalot is devoted to co-developing with its suppliers, sustainable textile products that are recyclable, biomass-based and biodegradable to uphold the values of eco-friendliness. Furthermore, in 2025, Makalot purchased USD170m of recycled material and USD140m of eco-friendly cotton, effectively reducing the negative impact to the environment.
E Materials sourcing & efficiency 2 Makalot follows the ZDHC goals, and aims to reduce water use and carbon emissions. In 2023, 78% of raw materials or finished products are provided by key first-tier suppliers that have passed third-party environmental certifications, and there were no violations of chemical regulations and chemical leakage incidents with Makalot, and all its products met the chemical emissions standards of ZDHC.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 31 Jul 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Makalot Industrial (1477 TT): 31 July 2026

Daiwa