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報告_Daiwa_統一超2912_20260729

更新 2026-07-31

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
Daiwa-2912 20260729_001.png 31KB 真資料圖 統一超股價走勢圖(TWD,左軸,藍線「Pres Chain」)+相對 TWSE 指數走勢(%,右軸,橘虛線),Jul-25 至 Jul-26;標題「Share price performance」

原始內容

Taiwan

President Chain Store (2912 TT)

Target price:

TWD270.00 (from TWD250.00)

Share price (29 Jul):

TWD241.00 | Up/downside: +12.0%

2Q26 review: fundamentals on track

  • 2Q26 EPS beat our estimate slightly; in line with Bloomberg consensus
  • Ongoing share gains in Taiwan CVS segment with store expansion
  • Reaffirming our Outperform (2) call; raising 12-month TP to TWD270

What's new: PCSC posted its 2Q26 results on 29 July after market hours. We reaffirm our Outperform (2) call as we believe PCSC's share gain potential in the Taiwan consumer market with its aggressive store addition strategy over 2026-28E should bear fruit in the mid to long term. PCSC is likely a better pick in the non-tech space to hedge against stock market volatility.

What's the impact: 2Q26 results review. PCSC's 2Q26 net profit of TWD3,174m (+2.7% QoQ and +4.3% YoY) beat our forecast by 4.5% but missed the Bloomberg consensus by 4.1%. Revenue of TWD92,176m (+4.1% QoQ and +5.5% YoY) was in line with our and consensus forecasts. The YoY expansion was mainly driven by fresh food, up 9-10% YoY (accounting for 26-27% of Taiwan 7-Eleven's revenue in 2Q26), and city café, up by 11-12% YoY (9-10% of Taiwan 7-Eleven's revenue in 2Q26). Its gross margin of 34.6% in 2Q26 slightly beat our forecast of 34.4% but missed the consensus estimate (34.9%). However, its operating profit of TWD3,845m (+1.9% QoQ and -0.8% YoY) missed our and consensus forecasts by 3.7-4.8% due to continued investments in store expansion and logistics. Overall, its 2Q26 EPS finished at TWD3.06, slightly higher than our and consensus estimates of TWD2.92 and TWD3.05, respectively.

Intact 2H26 outlook. PCSC's share in convenience store (CVS) by store count in Taiwan rose further to 52.3% in 1Q26 from 52.2% in 2025 and 51.8% in 2024 vs. Family Mart's 32.1% in 1Q26 and 32.2% in 2025. PCSC maintains its 2026 target of adding 150-200 Taiwan 7-Eleven stores (86 of net additions in 1H26) with per store daily (PSD) revenue growth of a low single digit percentage (0-1% in 1H26) with improving profitability. For Philippines 7-Eleven, PCSC aims to add 400-500 stores in 2026 vs. 159 net additions in 1H26. On Cosmed, PCSC will continue its aggressive store addition in 2026, targeting 50-100 new additions vs. 35 in 1H26 as the company sees demand in cosmetics and healthcare. We believe PCSC's aggressive store expansion strategy will continue to 2027. We keep our 2026-27E EPS almost unchanged and introduce our 2028 forecasts.

What we recommend: We reaffirm our Outperform (2) rating and raise our 12-month TP to TWD270 (from TWD250), still based on a 22x PER (vs. its past-3-year normalised trading PER of 18-27x) applied to our 1-year forward EPS (4Q26-3Q27E EPS). Its dividend yield of 4.1-4.9% over 202628E should support its current share price level. Key downside risks: higher-than-expected opex and competition.

How we differ: We are more positive on its share gain story in the Taiwan consumer space with margin expansion.

5

Daiwa

Outperform

Helen Chien

Helen Chien (886) 2 8758 6254

helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (0.3) (2.2) n.a.
Net profit change 1.2 (0.5) n.a.
Core EPS (FD) change 1.1 (0.5) n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa-2912 20260729_001
12-month range 206.50-262.50
Market cap (USDbn) 7.73
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 35.02
Shares outstanding (m) 1,040
Major shareholder Uni-President Enterprises (45.4%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 369,575 386,753 404,581
Operating profit (m) 14,751 15,865 17,377
Net profit (m) 11,991 13,000 14,439
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 11.506 12.474 13.854
EPS change (%) 7.0 8.4 11.1
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (1.1) 1.3 1.3
PER (x) 20.9 19.3 17.4
Dividend yield (%) 4.1 4.4 4.9
DPS 9.8 10.6 11.8
PBR (x) 5.1 4.6 4.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.8 7.7 6.8
ROE (%) 26.2 25.1 25.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

PCSC: P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net sales 88,528 92,176 94,547 94,325 95,180 96,141 97,169 98,263 369,575 386,753 404,581
COGS -57,917 -60,295 -61,639 -61,928 -62,256 -62,807 -63,228 -64,530 -241,779 -252,821 -264,098
Gross profit 30,610 31,881 32,908 32,397 32,924 33,334 33,941 33,733 127,796 133,932 140,483
Operating costs -26,837 -28,036 -28,837 -29,335 -28,840 -29,227 -29,539 -30,461 -113,045 -118,067 -123,105
Operating profit 3,773 3,845 4,071 3,062 4,084 4,107 4,402 3,272 14,751 15,865 17,377
Non-operating profit 848 862 793 756 866 1,013 867 831 3,258 3,577 3,923
Pre-tax profit 4,621 4,708 4,864 3,817 4,951 5,120 5,269 4,102 18,010 19,442 21,300
Tax / minority int. -1,530 -1,533 -1,517 -1,438 -1,599 -1,731 -1,609 -1,502 -6,019 -6,441 -6,861
Net profit 3,091 3,174 3,347 2,379 3,352 3,389 3,660 2,600 11,991 13,000 14,439
Basic EPS (TWD) 2.97 3.05 3.22 2.29 3.22 3.26 3.52 2.50 11.53 12.51 13.89
Operating Ratios
Gross margins 34.6% 34.6% 34.8% 34.3% 34.6% 34.7% 34.9% 34.3% 34.6% 34.6% 34.7%
Operating margin 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 3.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% 3.3% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3%
Pre-tax margin 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 4.0% 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 4.2% 4.9% 5.0% 5.3%
Net margin 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 2.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6%
Year-on-Year%
Net revenue 4.6% 5.5% 6.3% 5.1% 7.5% 4.3% 2.8% 4.2% 5.4% 4.6% 4.6%
Gross profit 6.5% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 7.6% 4.6% 3.1% 4.1% 6.0% 4.8% 4.9%
Operating income 4.2% -0.8% 7.5% 15.6% 8.2% 6.8% 8.1% 6.8% 5.9% 7.5% 9.5%
Pre-tax income 6.7% 2.2% 11.4% 4.8% 7.1% 8.7% 8.3% 7.5% 6.3% 8.0% 9.6%
Net income 6.7% 4.3% 12.9% 3.0% 8.4% 6.7% 9.4% 9.3% 7.0% 8.4% 11.1%
Qtr-on-Qtr%
Net revenue -1.4% 4.1% 2.6% -0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
Gross profit 0.1% 4.2% 3.2% -1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% -0.6%
Operating income 42.5% 1.9% 5.9% -24.8% 33.4% 0.6% 7.2% -25.7%
Pre-tax income 26.9% 1.9% 3.3% -21.5% 29.7% 3.4% 2.9% -22.1%
Net income 33.9% 2.7% 5.4% -28.9% 40.9% 1.1% 8.0% -29.0%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

PCSC: earnings forecasts revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 370,611 369,575 367,406 395,416 386,753 383,469 n.a. 404,581 401,594
Diff (%) -0.3% 0.6% -2.2% 0.9% n.a. 0.7%
Gross Margin (%) 34.5% 34.6% 34.6% 34.5% 34.6% 34.8% n.a. 34.7% 35.1%
Operating profit 14,871 14,751 15,287 16,168 15,865 16,159 n.a. 17,377 16,914
Operating Margin (%) 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% n.a. 4.3% 4.2%
Net profit 11,854 11,991 12,103 13,065 13,000 12,739 n.a. 14,439 14,114
Diluted EPS 11.38 11.51 11.63 12.54 12.47 12.31 n.a. 13.85 13.68
Diff (%) 1.1% -1.1% -0.5% 1.3% n.a. 1.3%

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

PCSC: 2Q26 results

Actual Actual Actual
TWDm QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff% Consensus Diff%
Revenue 92,176 4.1% 5.5% 91,392 0.9% 91,635 0.6%
Gross profit 31,881 4.2% 6.0% 31,411 1.5% 31,944 -0.2%
Gross margin (%) 34.6% 34.4% 0.2pp 34.9% -0.3pp
Operating profit 3,845 1.9% -0.8% 3,994 -3.7% 4,038 -4.8%
Operating margin (%) 4.2% 4.4% -0.2pp 4.4% -0.2pp
Pre-tax profit 4,708 1.9% 2.2% 4,729 -0.4% 4,915 -4.2%
Pre-tax margin (%) 5.1% 5.2% -0.1pp 5.4% -0.3pp
Net profit 3,174 2.7% 4.3% 3,036 4.5% 3,309 -4.1%
Basic EPS (TWD) 3.06 2.8% 4.5% 2.92 4.7% 3.05 0.3%

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

President Chain Store (2912 TT): 29 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Number of Taiwan 7-Eleven stores 6,379 6,631 6,859 7,077 7,248 7,399 7,559 7,679
SSSG in Taiwan 7-Eleven (%) (5.9) 3.8 4.2 3.2 1.6 (1.2) 5.2 8.2
Consolidated operating margin (%) 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
CVS 168,010 182,872 197,664 210,705 220,046 222,332 238,972 263,504
Retail 76,161 87,177 96,773 104,993 108,201 115,402 116,523 116,523
Other Revenue 18,564 20,385 22,605 22,234 22,487 31,841 31,257 24,554
Total Revenue 262,735 290,434 317,042 337,932 350,735 369,575 386,753 404,581
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (174,612) (192,580) (208,870) (222,505) (230,193) (241,779) (252,821) (264,098)
SG&A (77,454) (85,515) (94,422) (101,455) (106,611) (113,045) (118,067) (123,105)
Other op.expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating profit 10,670 12,340 13,750 13,973 13,930 14,751 15,865 17,377
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (1,021) (690) 190 134 (617) (693) (283) 55
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 2,423 2,420 2,417 3,255 3,632 3,952 3,860 3,868
Pre-tax profit 12,072 14,070 16,357 17,362 16,945 18,010 19,442 21,300
Tax (2,053) (3,000) (3,696) (3,620) (3,611) (3,971) (4,394) (4,814)
Min. int./pref. div./others (1,157) (1,788) (2,047) (2,203) (2,124) (2,047) (2,047) (2,047)
Net profit (reported) 8,862 9,282 10,614 11,539 11,210 11,991 13,000 14,439
Net profit (adjusted) 8,862 9,282 10,614 11,539 11,210 11,991 13,000 14,439
EPS (reported)(TWD) 8.524 8.928 10.209 11.099 10.783 11.534 12.505 13.889
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 8.524 8.928 10.209 11.099 10.783 11.534 12.505 13.889
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 8.507 8.910 10.185 11.071 10.751 11.506 12.474 13.854
DPS (TWD) 9.000 9.000 9.000 9.000 9.000 9.804 10.629 11.805
EBIT 10,670 12,340 13,750 13,973 13,930 14,751 15,865 17,377
EBITDA 31,808 34,680 37,507 38,958 40,510 32,517 31,407 34,099

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 12,072 14,070 16,357 17,362 16,945 18,010 19,442 21,300
Depreciation and amortisation 21,138 22,340 23,757 24,985 26,580 17,766 15,542 16,722
Tax paid (2,053) (3,000) (3,696) (3,620) (3,611) (3,971) (4,394) (4,814)
Change in working capital 6,508 2,388 (2,155) 7,753 (1,658) (2,562) (226) (269)
Other operational CF items (1,681) (1,561) 8,126 (9,719) (1,747) (1,042) (2,434) (2,442)
Cash flow from operations 35,984 34,238 42,389 36,761 36,510 28,200 27,930 30,497
Capex (8,635) (11,517) (12,866) (19,752) (21,357) (13,022) (10,442) (10,924)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 240 (320) (12,137) 7,460 190 58 0 0
Other investing CF items (992) (747) (2,006) (546) (672) (174) 0 0
Cash flow from investing (9,388) (12,584) (27,009) (12,838) (21,839) (13,138) (10,442) (10,924)
Change in debt (2,761) 3,454 9,791 3,618 12,093 (11,362) 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (10,654) (10,706) (10,590) (12,066) (10,672) (9,357) (9,876) (9,876)
Other financing CF items (13,128) (13,729) (14,139) (14,884) (15,777) (4,002) 0 0
Cash flow from financing (26,543) (20,981) (14,938) (23,332) (14,356) (24,721) (9,876) (9,876)
Forex effect/others (968) 2,219 (53) 1,747 (1,401) 434 0 0
Change in cash (914) 2,892 389 2,338 (1,086) (9,224) 7,611 9,697
Free cash flow 27,349 22,721 29,523 17,009 15,153 15,179 17,487 19,573

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

President Chain Store (2912 TT): 29 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 46,309 49,072 56,851 53,012 51,882 42,972 50,583 60,280
Inventory 18,440 21,670 23,427 23,632 26,709 26,474 27,586 28,917
Accounts receivable 9,148 9,283 10,270 11,157 11,132 12,522 13,044 13,669
Other current assets 5,515 5,063 4,324 4,794 4,825 5,298 5,298 5,298
Total current assets 79,412 85,087 94,873 92,595 94,547 87,265 96,511 108,163
Fixed assets 29,141 34,408 37,505 49,670 62,291 60,319 55,219 49,421
Goodwill & intangibles 9,814 9,665 9,508 9,197 9,250 9,142 9,142 9,142
Other non-current assets 96,137 104,050 115,466 118,320 126,543 130,421 130,808 131,202
Total assets 214,504 233,210 257,352 269,782 292,631 287,147 291,680 297,928
Short-term debt 5,630 9,570 13,502 9,254 20,701 16,043 16,043 16,043
Accounts payable 28,330 31,048 34,277 35,179 31,960 33,530 34,939 36,624
Other current liabilities 54,638 57,091 61,104 63,339 67,938 65,747 65,747 65,747
Total current liabilities 88,598 97,709 108,884 107,771 120,599 115,321 116,729 118,415
Long-term debt 963 493 6,352 14,730 15,165 19,468 19,468 19,468
Other non-current liabilities 82,151 89,360 94,270 95,261 103,941 94,000 94,000 94,000
Total liabilities 171,713 187,562 209,505 217,762 239,704 228,789 230,197 231,883
Share capital 10,396 10,396 10,396 10,396 10,396 10,396 10,396 10,396
Reserves/R.E./others 23,767 26,063 27,448 31,881 32,165 38,722 43,893 50,503
Shareholders' equity 34,163 36,459 37,845 42,278 42,561 49,118 54,289 60,899
Minority interests 8,628 9,189 10,003 9,743 10,365 9,241 7,193 5,146
Total equity & liabilities 214,504 233,210 257,352 269,782 292,631 287,147 291,680 297,928
EV 219,463 220,729 223,554 231,263 244,898 252,329 242,670 230,926
Net debt/(cash) (39,715) (39,009) (36,997) (29,028) (16,016) (7,461) (15,072) (24,769)
BVPS (TWD) 32.861 35.070 36.402 40.666 40.939 47.246 52.220 58.578

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 1.6 10.5 9.2 6.6 3.8 5.4 4.6 4.6
EBITDA (YoY) (1.3) 9.0 8.2 3.9 4.0 (19.7) (3.4) 8.6
Operating profit (YoY) (12.1) 15.7 11.4 1.6 (0.3) 5.9 7.5 9.5
Net profit (YoY) (13.4) 4.7 14.4 8.7 (2.8) 7.0 8.4 11.1
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (13.4) 4.7 14.3 8.7 (2.9) 7.0 8.4 11.1
Gross-profit margin 33.5 33.7 34.1 34.2 34.4 34.6 34.6 34.7
EBITDA margin 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.6 8.8 8.1 8.4
Operating-profit margin 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3
Net profit margin 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6
ROAE 25.3 26.3 28.6 28.8 26.4 26.2 25.1 25.1
ROAA 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.9
ROCE 20.6 23.5 22.3 19.4 16.9 16.2 16.6 17.5
ROIC n.a n.a n.a 65.4 36.6 26.2 25.2 30.7
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 17.0 21.3 22.6 20.9 21.3 22.1 22.6 22.6
Accounts receivable (days) 12.0 11.6 11.3 11.6 11.6 11.7 12.1 12.0
Current ratio (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
Net interest cover (x) 10.4 17.9 n.a. n.a. 22.6 21.3 56.1 n.a.
Net dividend payout 105.6 100.8 88.2 81.1 83.5 85.0 85.0 85.0
Free cash flow yield 10.9 9.1 11.8 6.8 6.0 6.1 7.0 7.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

President Chain Store is the operator of 7-Eleven Taiwan, the largest convenience-store chain in Taiwan, with over 7,200 stores at the end of 2025 and a dominant market share. In addition, the company has invested in Philippine 7-Eleven, Shanghai 7-Eleven, Taiwan Starbucks and Cosmed, among other investments in Greater China and overseas.

President Chain Store (2912 TT): 29 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 The CEO and Chairperson of PCSC are not the same individual. The company has scored an overall "AA" in MSCI ESG ratings since 2017, indicating its strong ESG performance during the past 8 years. Its corporate governance and corporate behaviour performance is at a moderate level compared with peers.
Capital management 2 PCSC's maintained its dividend payout ratio at 81-106% over 2015-25, which we consider as reasonable as it has a solid position in Taiwan's CVS market. However, we note that PCSC plans to adopt a relatively aggressive store expansion strategy. Thus, its payout ratio in the coming few years may depend on its expansion results.
S Related party & transaction Product quality & 2 Revenue from related-party transactions only accounts for 1% of PCSC's revenue in 2025, with no suspicious activity observed.
safety 1 PCSC's domestic OEM factories (total: 45) have received ISO 22000 certification. New suppliers are tested based on PCSC's quality control standards. Also, PCSC has established its own Material and Quality Assurance System to ensure the source of each material is trackable. We note that PSCS leads its peers on the MSCI ESG rating for product safety and quality. PCSC has established its own recycling platform to manage its waste and material, providing
E Waste & hazardous materials management 1 TWD3-120 discount coupons to the public as incentives to recycle. In addition to reducing straw production, PCSC has also introduced bio-based PLA materials and FSC-certified recycled cup holders and packages to reduce plastic use.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 29 Jul 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

President Chain Store (2912 TT): 29 July 2026

Daiwa