PDF 原檔：報告_Daiwa_穎崴6515_20260921_original.pdf
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原始內容
WinWay Technology (6515 TT)
Target price: TWD10,000.00 (from TWD10,000.00)
Shareprice(21Sep):TWD5,795.00 | Up/downside:+72.6%
Capacity ramp drives revenue upside
- Revenue upside with more prudent gross margin assumptions
- Probe card position intact; socket expansion on track
- Reaffirming Buy (1) rating with an unchanged 12M TP of TWD10,000
What's new: We provide an update on Winway's business outlook.
What's the impact: Marked revenue upside, but a more conservative gross margin outlook. We raise our 3Q26 revenue forecast by 9.3% to TWD5.0bn (+177.8% YoY) to reflect the stronger-than-expected execution of capacity expansion at Renwu Phase 1. Management guided for flat QoQ revenue in 4Q26, due to: 1) seasonality; 2) existing capacity being nearly fully utilised, with additional capacity scheduled to come online in 1H27; and 3) potential revenue recognition delays into 1H27 to accommodate customers' schedules. On profitability, we lower our 3Q26E gross margin by 1.8pp, as we expect higher revenue contribution from probe cards and incremental depreciation from the new plant to dilute margins. Overall, for 2026E and 2027E, we raise our revenue by 3.2% and 0.9%, while lowering our gross margin by 1.2pp and 1.7pp, respectively.
Probe card share concerns appear overdone. In response to concerns over probe card order losses, we believe the expanding TAM will attract competitors; the key differentiator is whether suppliers can scale capacity to meet customers' demands. Winway does not expect its probe card share at its largest customer to decline and remains confident in maintaining its market-leading position. Its Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) probe card supply agreement with Technoprobe (TPRO IM, Not Rated) remains in place, which should support its technology competitiveness.
Socket capacity expansion remains on track. Winway doubled its socket capacity YoY in 2026 and remains on track to reach monthly pogo-pin capacity of 14m units by 1H27, per management. We estimate monthly capacity to grow further to 16-18m units by end-2027. Management's longterm target is to raise its pogo-pin self-sufficiency ratio to 50-60%, which should support gross margin expansion through greater vertical integration.
What we recommend: We slightly raise revenue top-line but lower our 2026-28E EPS by 1-5% to factor in conservative gross margin assumptions. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call, with 12M TP of TWD10,000, based on a PER of 50x, applied to our 2027E forward EPS. Our 2026-28E EPS CAGR of 100% makes our target PER undemanding, given that the resulting PEG ratio is 0.5x. Key downside risks: intensifying competition.
How we differ: Our revised 2026-27E EPS are now roughly in line with consensus, reflecting a more prudent gross margin. While market noise persists, we see no structural threat to Winway's leading position in sockets and probe cards.
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Leon Chen (886) 2 8758 6247 leon.chen@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Stacy Lin (886) 2 8758 6252 stacy.lin@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Forecast revisions (%)
| Year to 31 Dec | 26E | 27E | 28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue change | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Net profit change | (1.3) | (4.7) | (4.6) |
| Core EPS (FD) change | (1.0) | (4.7) | (4.6) |
Source: Daiwa forecasts
Share price performance
| 12-month range | 2,015.00-10,795.00 |
|---|---|
| Market cap (USDbn) | 6.60 |
| 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) | 97.33 |
| Shares outstanding (m) | 36 |
| Majorshareholder HOWEIINVESTMENTCOLTD(9.7%) |
Financial summary (TWD)
| Year to 31 Dec | 26E | 27E | 28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 16,569 | 30,367 | 52,830 |
| Operating profit (m) | 4,171 | 8,864 | 16,826 |
| Net profit (m) | 3,423 | 7,064 | 13,377 |
| Core EPS (fully-diluted) | 95.007 | 195.410 | 370.055 |
| EPS change (%) | 102.4 | 105.7 | 89.4 |
| Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) | (0.6) | 0.5 | 7.6 |
| PER (x) | 61.0 | 29.7 | 15.7 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.2 | 2.5 | 4.8 |
| DPS | 71.0 | 146.6 | 277.5 |
| PBR (x) | 19.0 | 13.5 | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 45.4 | 21.6 | 11.2 |
| ROE (%) | 39.0 | 52.9 | 68.1 |
Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts
Winway: 3Q26 Daiwa vs. Bloomberg estimates
| (TWDm) | New forecast | QoQ | YoY | Previous forecast | Difference | Bloomberg consensus | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,012 | 42.3% | 177.8% | 4,584 | 9.3% | 4,236 | 18.3% |
| Gross profit | 1,973 | 46.1% | 159.9% | 1,887 | 4.5% | 1,728 | 14.2% |
| Operating profit | 1,261 | 52.8% | 209.6% | 1,236 | 2.0% | 1,143 | 10.3% |
| Profit before tax | 1,270 | 49.8% | 176.6% | 1,245 | 2.0% | 1,171 | 8.5% |
| Net profit | 1,007 | 49.8% | 170.9% | 987 | 2.0% | 947 | 6.4% |
| Basic EPS (TWD) | 27.86 | 49.0% | 167.1% | 27.32 | 2.0% | 26.05 | 7.0% |
| Margin | |||||||
| Gross margin | 39.4% | 1.0pp | -2.7pp | 41.2% | -1.8pp | 40.8% | -1.4pp |
| Operating margin | 25.2% | 1.7pp | 2.6pp | 27.0% | -1.8pp | 27.0% | -1.8pp |
| Pre tax margin | 25.3% | 1.3pp | -0.1pp | 27.2% | -1.8pp | 27.6% | -2.3pp |
| Net margin | 20.1% | 1.0pp | -0.5pp | 21.5% | -1.4pp | 22.4% | -2.3pp |
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts
Winway: quarterly and annual P&L statements
| (TWDm) | 2026E - 1Q | 2026E - 2Q | 2026E - 3QE | 2026E - 4QE | 2027E - 1QE | 2027E - 2QE | 2027E - 3QE | 2027E - 4QE | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 2,980 | 3,523 | 5,012 | 5,054 | 5,398 | 6,703 | 8,712 | 9,554 | 16,569 | 30,367 | 52,830 |
| Gross profit | 1,282 | 1,350 | 1,973 | 2,005 | 2,143 | 2,725 | 3,623 | 3,994 | 6,610 | 12,486 | 22,337 |
| Operating costs | 505 | 525 | 712 | 697 | 686 | 818 | 1,019 | 1,099 | 2,439 | 3,621 | 5,511 |
| Operating profit | 777 | 825 | 1,261 | 1,308 | 1,458 | 1,907 | 2,604 | 2,895 | 4,171 | 8,864 | 16,826 |
| Pre-tax profit | 874 | 848 | 1,270 | 1,317 | 1,468 | 1,918 | 2,614 | 2,906 | 4,309 | 8,907 | 16,867 |
| Net profit | 699 | 672 | 1,007 | 1,045 | 1,164 | 1,521 | 2,073 | 2,305 | 3,423 | 7,064 | 13,377 |
| EPS (TWD) | 19.54 | 18.70 | 27.86 | 28.90 | 32.21 | 42.08 | 57.36 | 63.76 | 95.01 | 195.41 | 370.05 |
| Operating Ratios | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 43.0% | 38.3% | 39.4% | 39.7% | 39.7% | 40.7% | 41.6% | 41.8% | 39.9% | 41.1% | 42.3% |
| Operating margin | 26.1% | 23.4% | 25.2% | 25.9% | 27.0% | 28.5% | 29.9% | 30.3% | 25.2% | 29.2% | 31.8% |
| Pre-tax margin | 29.3% | 24.1% | 25.3% | 26.1% | 27.2% | 28.6% | 30.0% | 30.4% | 26.0% | 29.3% | 31.9% |
| Net margin | 23.4% | 19.1% | 20.1% | 20.7% | 21.6% | 22.7% | 23.8% | 24.1% | 20.7% | 23.3% | 25.3% |
| YoY (%) | |||||||||||
| Net revenue | 30% | 131% | 178% | 126% | 81% | 90% | 74% | 89% | 111% | 83% | 74% |
| Gross profit | 14% | 81% | 160% | 115% | 67% | 102% | 84% | 99% | 86% | 89% | 79% |
| Operating income | 7% | 79% | 210% | 175% | 88% | 131% | 106% | 121% | 102% | 113% | 90% |
| Net income | 14% | 228% | 171% | 116% | 67% | 126% | 106% | 121% | 105% | 106% | 89% |
| QoQ (%) | |||||||||||
| Net revenue | 33% | 18% | 42% | 1% | 7% | 24% | 30% | 10% | |||
| Gross profit | 38% | 5% | 46% | 2% | 7% | 27% | 33% | 10% | |||
| Operating income | 64% | 6% | 53% | 4% | 11% | 31% | 37% | 11% | |||
| Net income | 45% | -4% | 50% | 4% | 11% | 31% | 36% | 11% |
Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts
Winway: revenue and earnings forecast revisions
| (TWDm) | 2026E - Previous | 2026E - New | 2026E - Consensus | 2027E - Previous | 2027E - New | 2027E - Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,056 | 16,569 | 15,287 | 30,095 | 30,367 | 26,404 |
| Diff (%) | 3.2% | 8.4% | 0.9% | 15.0% | ||
| Gross margin (%) | 41.1% | 39.9% | 42.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | 45.4% |
| Operating Profit | 4,227 | 4,171 | 4,046 | 9,300 | 8,864 | 8,588 |
| Operating margin | 26.3% | 25.2% | 26.5% | 30.9% | 29.2% | 32.5% |
| Net Profit | 3,468 | 3,423 | 3,437 | 7,409 | 7,064 | 6,997 |
| EPS | 96.24 | 95.01 | 95.54 | 204.97 | 195.41 | 194.45 |
| Diff (%) | -1.3% | -0.6% | -4.7% | 0.5% |
Source: Daiwa estimates and forecasts
Financial summary
Key assumptions
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Server CPU Shipment (mn) | 38 | 36 | 23 | 22 | 28 | 36 | 49 | 58 |
| AI GPU/ASIC Shipment (mn) | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 29 | 33 |
| SmartphoneShipment (mn) | 1,655 | 1,437 | 1,381 | 1,439 | 1,429 | 1,249 | 1,235 | 1,303 |
Profit and loss (TWDm)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socket | 1,925 | 3,206 | 2,678 | 4,096 | 4,400 | 10,560 | 21,248 | 39,845 |
| Probe Card | 235 | 995 | 250 | 640 | 2,308 | 4,652 | 7,241 | 10,374 |
| Other Revenue | 727 | 921 | 754 | 1,062 | 1,149 | 1,357 | 1,878 | 2,611 |
| Total Revenue | 2,887 | 5,122 | 3,682 | 5,798 | 7,857 | 16,569 | 30,367 | 52,830 |
| Other income | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| COGS | (1,678) | (2,800) | (2,317) | (3,265) | (4,301) | (9,959) | (17,881) | (30,494) |
| SG&A | (432) | (708) | (571) | (836) | (1,076) | (1,678) | (2,529) | (3,818) |
| Other op.expenses | (185) | (254) | (232) | (347) | (416) | (762) | (1,092) | (1,693) |
| Operating profit | 592 | 1,342 | 557 | 1,368 | 2,070 | 4,171 | 8,864 | 16,826 |
| Net-interest inc./(exp.) | (1) | (1) | (3) | (15) | (4) | (31) | (20) | (23) |
| Assoc/forex/extraord./others | 6 | 36 | 7 | 81 | (4) | 169 | 62 | 64 |
| Pre-tax profit | 596 | 1,378 | 561 | 1,435 | 2,061 | 4,309 | 8,907 | 16,867 |
| Tax | (110) | (277) | (97) | (249) | (388) | (886) | (1,843) | (3,491) |
| Min. int./pref. div./others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net profit (reported) | 487 | 1,100 | 464 | 1,186 | 1,673 | 3,423 | 7,064 | 13,377 |
| Net profit (adjusted) | 487 | 1,100 | 464 | 1,186 | 1,673 | 3,423 | 7,064 | 13,377 |
| EPS (reported)(TWD) | 14.460 | 32.220 | 13.520 | 34.310 | 46.930 | 95.007 | 195.410 | 370.055 |
| EPS (adjusted)(TWD) | 14.460 | 32.220 | 13.520 | 34.310 | 46.930 | 95.007 | 195.410 | 370.055 |
| EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) | 14.460 | 32.220 | 13.520 | 34.310 | 46.930 | 95.007 | 195.410 | 370.055 |
| DPS (TWD) | 10.979 | 22.000 | 11.000 | 25.000 | 49.438 | 71.017 | 146.557 | 277.541 |
| EBIT | 592 | 1,342 | 557 | 1,368 | 2,070 | 4,171 | 8,864 | 16,826 |
| EBITDA | 717 | 1,465 | 684 | 1,605 | 2,328 | 4,480 | 9,309 | 17,402 |
Cash flow (TWDm)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit before tax | 596 | 1,378 | 561 | 1,435 | 2,061 | 4,309 | 8,907 | 16,867 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | 125 | 122 | 127 | 237 | 258 | 310 | 444 | 576 |
| Tax paid | (110) | (277) | (97) | (249) | (388) | (886) | (1,843) | (3,491) |
| Change in working capital | 9 | (636) | 327 | (784) | (44) | (2,143) | (688) | (1,180) |
| Other operational CF items | 113 | 476 | (318) | 411 | (84) | 443 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow from operations | 733 | 1,063 | 600 | 1,049 | 1,803 | 2,033 | 6,821 | 12,773 |
| Capex | (325) | (769) | (860) | (299) | (280) | (1,034) | (2,069) | (1,448) |
| Net (acquisitions)/disposals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other investing CF items | (202) | 128 | (234) | (786) | 1,002 | (2,039) | 69 | 102 |
| Cash flow from investing | (527) | (641) | (1,094) | (1,084) | 722 | (3,074) | (1,999) | (1,347) |
| Change in debt | (50) | 0 | 400 | (250) | (151) | 3,896 | 0 | 0 |
| Net share issues/(repurchases) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividends paid | (440) | (376) | (754) | (378) | (890) | (1,787) | (2,567) | (5,298) |
| Other financing CF items | 1,100 | (38) | (14) | 1,144 | (17) | (11) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow from financing | 611 | (414) | (369) | 516 | (1,057) | 2,098 | (2,567) | (5,298) |
| Forex effect/others | (1) | 2 | (1) | 4 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 15 |
| Change in cash | 816 | 8 | (865) | 485 | 1,470 | 1,074 | 2,270 | 6,144 |
| Free cash flow | 408 | 294 | (261) | 750 | 1,523 | 998 | 4,752 | 11,325 |
Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts
Financial summary continued …
Balance sheet (TWDm)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & short-term investment | 1,645 | 1,534 | 899 | 2,218 | 2,674 | 7,578 | 9,848 | 15,992 |
| Inventory | 350 | 770 | 578 | 757 | 842 | 2,072 | 3,531 | 5,799 |
| Accounts receivable | 873 | 1,613 | 868 | 1,835 | 2,151 | 4,875 | 9,062 | 14,741 |
| Other current assets | 23 | 45 | 31 | 235 | 760 | 1,089 | 1,089 | 1,089 |
| Total current assets | 2,891 | 3,962 | 2,377 | 5,045 | 6,426 | 15,614 | 23,529 | 37,621 |
| Fixed assets | 1,048 | 1,737 | 2,499 | 2,535 | 2,613 | 3,804 | 5,428 | 6,300 |
| Goodwill & intangibles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other non-current assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 137 | 68 | (34) |
| Total assets | 3,939 | 5,699 | 4,876 | 7,580 | 9,044 | 19,556 | 29,025 | 43,887 |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 58 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Accounts payable | 758 | 1,570 | 711 | 1,372 | 1,949 | 6,022 | 10,979 | 17,746 |
| Other current liabilities | 197 | 378 | 210 | 409 | 576 | 870 | 870 | 870 |
| Total current liabilities | 955 | 1,948 | 979 | 1,812 | 2,524 | 6,892 | 11,849 | 18,617 |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 337 | 147 | 0 | 1,477 | 1,477 | 1,477 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 54 | 56 | 69 | 81 | 75 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Total liabilities | 1,009 | 2,003 | 1,386 | 2,040 | 2,599 | 8,463 | 13,420 | 20,188 |
| Share capital | 339 | 345 | 348 | 358 | 360 | 364 | 364 | 364 |
| Reserves/R.E./others | 2,591 | 3,350 | 3,142 | 5,182 | 6,085 | 10,728 | 15,241 | 23,335 |
| Shareholders' equity | 2,930 | 3,696 | 3,489 | 5,540 | 6,445 | 11,093 | 15,605 | 23,699 |
| Minority interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total equity & liabilities | 3,939 | 5,699 | 4,876 | 7,580 | 9,044 | 19,556 | 29,025 | 43,887 |
| EV | 207,830 | 207,941 | 208,971 | 207,435 | 206,801 | 203,374 | 201,104 | 194,960 |
| Net debt/(cash) | (1,645) | (1,534) | (504) | (2,040) | (2,674) | (6,101) | (8,371) | (14,515) |
| BVPS (TWD) | 86.449 | 106.999 | 100.350 | 154.643 | 178.830 | 304.371 | 428.185 | 650.279 |
Key ratios (%)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (YoY) | (0.8) | 77.4 | (28.1) | 57.5 | 35.5 | 110.9 | 83.3 | 74.0 |
| EBITDA (YoY) | (9.1) | 104.3 | (53.3) | 134.6 | 45.0 | 92.5 | 107.8 | 86.9 |
| Operating profit (YoY) | (11.4) | 126.8 | (58.5) | 145.7 | 51.3 | 101.5 | 112.5 | 89.8 |
| Net profit (YoY) | (8.4) | 126.1 | (57.8) | 155.5 | 41.1 | 104.6 | 106.4 | 89.4 |
| Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) | (16.9) | 122.8 | (58.0) | 153.8 | 36.8 | 102.4 | 105.7 | 89.4 |
| Gross-profit margin | 41.9 | 45.3 | 37.1 | 43.7 | 45.3 | 39.9 | 41.1 | 42.3 |
| EBITDA margin | 24.8 | 28.6 | 18.6 | 27.7 | 29.6 | 27.0 | 30.7 | 32.9 |
| Operating-profit margin | 20.5 | 26.2 | 15.1 | 23.6 | 26.3 | 25.2 | 29.2 | 31.8 |
| Net profit margin | 16.9 | 21.5 | 12.6 | 20.5 | 21.3 | 20.7 | 23.3 | 25.3 |
| ROAE | 20.7 | 33.2 | 12.9 | 26.3 | 27.9 | 39.0 | 52.9 | 68.1 |
| ROAA | 15.3 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 19.0 | 20.1 | 23.9 | 29.1 | 36.7 |
| ROCE | 25.0 | 40.5 | 14.7 | 28.5 | 34.0 | 43.9 | 59.8 | 79.6 |
| ROIC | 40.0 | 62.2 | 17.9 | 34.9 | 46.2 | 75.6 | n.a | n.a |
| Net debt to equity | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash |
| Effective tax rate | 18.4 | 20.1 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 18.8 | 20.6 | 20.7 | 20.7 |
| Accounts receivable (days) | 89.4 | 88.6 | 123.0 | 85.1 | 92.6 | 77.4 | 83.8 | 82.2 |
| Current ratio (x) | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Net interest cover (x) | 445.4 | 1,431.5 | 179.3 | 99.8 | 527.4 | 141.2 | 446.4 | 743.8 |
| Net dividend payout | 75.9 | 68.3 | 81.4 | 72.9 | 105.3 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Free cash flow yield | 0.2 | 0.1 | n.a. | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 5.4 |
Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts
Company profile
Founded in Kaohsiung in 2001, WinWay has evolved from an optoelectronic test-fixture supplier into a leading logic test-interface provider. Its portfolio includes test sockets, MEMS probe cards and contact elements. Growth is driven by increasing AI/HPC testing complexity, GPU and ASIC design wins, expanding SLT adoption and next-generation HyperSocket solutions.
ESG analysis
ESG risks
| Risks | Risks | Management | Analystcomments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Executive/board quality | 2 | The company maintains a robust governance framework, with an experienced and diverse Board that provides independent oversight, strengthens accountability, and supports sustainable long- term business growth. | |
| G | Capital management | 2 | The company adopts a prudent capital management approach, focusing on financial stability, operational efficiency, sustainable growth, and the creation of long-term value for shareholders. |
| Related party & transaction | 1 | Related-party transactions are governed by established review procedures and conflict-of- interest controls to ensure transparency, fairness, and the protection of stakeholder interests. | |
| S | Supplychain management | 1 | The company promotes responsible supply chain management through supplier assessments, sustainability requirements, ethical business practices, and ongoing engagement to enhance supply chain resilience. |
| E | Water&wastewater management | 2 | The company implements water conservation initiatives and wastewater management practices to improve resource efficiency, ensure regulatory compliance and minimise environmental impacts. |
Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.
Update Date: 7 Aug 2026
Source: Daiwa, Company