PDF 原檔：報告_Daiwa_欣銓3264_3Q26_20261027_original.pdf
原始內容
Ardentec (3264 TT)
Share price (27 Oct): TWD248.00
12-mth rating: Buy (1)
3Q26 results in line; fundamentals remain on track
Leon Chen
(886) 2 8758 6247 leon.chen@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Mike Liu
(886) 2 8758 6252
mike.liu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Summary: Ardentec released its 3Q26 results and held its investor meeting after market hours on 27 October. EPS of TWD3.1 beat our estimate (TWD3.04) and the consensus (TWD2.89) by 2.1% and 7.3%, respectively. Operating profit was broadly in line with our forecast, but beat consensus by 5%, driven by the Longtan plant ramp-up and higher utilisation rates.
We have a Buy (1) rating and 12M TP of TWD395, based on target PER of 25x on our 2027E EPS.
What's the impact:
- Stronger-than-expected 3Q26 gross margin: Ardentec's 3Q26 revenue reached TWD5,337m (+17.7% QoQ, +48.5% YoY), broadly in line with both our estimate and the consensus. The strong revenue growth was primarily driven by volume ramp-up at the Longtan facilities and supported by spillover demand. Gross margin came in at 45.4% (+5.2ppt QoQ, +9.7ppt YoY), beating our forecast and consensus expectations by 0.3ppt and 1.7ppt, respectively, mainly due to the Longtan plant ramp-up and higher utilisation rates (approximately 80%). Operating income was TWD1,860m (+35.0% QoQ, +112.8% YoY), largely in line with our estimate, but beating the consensus by 5.1%. Net profit of TWD1,473m, largely in line with both our estimate and the consensus. Although 3Q26 EPS came in at TWD3.1, beating our estimate and the consensus by 2.1% and 7.3%, respectively, the variance was mainly due to share-dilution timing instead of operational issues.
- 4Q26 guidance largely in-line: Management guided for 4Q26 revenue to be flat or slightly up QoQ on traditional seasonality, which is in line with our forecast (up 3% QoQ). On margins, management guided for a slight QoQ decline in gross margin, mainly due to higher labour cost and depreciation expenses, which is also consistent with our forecast. We estimate 4Q26 gross margin at 44.0%, down 1.4ppt QoQ.
- Solid demand for 2027: For 2027, we expect Ardentec to continue benefiting from the AI-driven growth trend, supported by (1) robust wafer sorting outsourcing demand from tier-1 foundry customers and (2) strong AI networking demand from a major U.S. networking customer. The company is currently engaged in several co-packaged optics (CPO) projects with leading U.S. industry players, which could provide it long term opportunities and a larger addressable market.
27 October 2026
Information Technology: Taiwan
Ardentec: 3Q26 results vs. Daiwa and Bloomberg estimates
| (TWDm) | Ardentec's 3Q26 results | QoQ | YoY | Daiwa forecast | Difference | Bloomberg consensus | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,337 | 17.7% | 48.5% | 5,337 | 0.0% | 5,278 | 1.1% |
| Gross profit | 2,425 | 33.1% | 89.1% | 2,407 | 0.7% | 2,308 | 5.1% |
| Operating profit | 1,860 | 35.0% | 112.8% | 1,892 | -1.7% | 1,769 | 5.1% |
| Profit before tax | 1,825 | 25.2% | 74.7% | 1,897 | -3.8% | 1,777 | 2.7% |
| Net profit | 1,473 | 27.5% | 78.1% | 1,505 | -2.1% | 1,458 | 1.1% |
| Basic EPS (TWD) | 3.10 | 27.0% | 77.1% | 3.04 | 2.1% | 2.89 | 7.3% |
| Margin | |||||||
| Gross margin | 45.4% | 5.2pp | 9.7pp | 45.1% | 0.3pp | 43.7% | 1.7pp |
| Operating margin | 34.8% | 4.4pp | 10.5pp | 35.5% | -0.6pp | 33.5% | 1.3pp |
| Pre tax margin | 34.2% | 2.0pp | 5.1pp | 35.6% | -1.4pp | 33.7% | 0.5pp |
| Net margin | 27.6% | 2.1pp | 4.6pp | 28.2% | -0.6pp | 27.6% | 0.0pp |
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts
What we recommend:
We have a Buy (1) rating and 12M TP of TWD395, based on target PER of 25x on our 2027E EPS. While our target PER represents a premium over the OSAT/testing peer average, we believe this premium is justified by steady demand for high-speed AI connectivity and the Longtan ramp-up. Key risk: delays in capacity expansion.
In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.