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報告_Daiwa_景碩3189_20261006

更新 2026-10-07

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_景碩3189_20261006_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-10-07)

ingest 時建立的圖片索引;嵌入 lib 時只挑「真資料圖」,且財務/營收/股價類圖不嵌公司頁(使用者裁定 260924)。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_景碩3189_20261006_001.png 20KB 真資料圖 Share price performance:Kinsus 股價(左軸 TWD)與相對 TWSE 指數(右軸 %),Oct-25 至 Oct-26,股價自約 100 升至逾 1,100;股價類圖,不嵌公司頁
報告_Daiwa_景碩3189_20261006_002.png 31KB 真資料圖 1-year forward PER bands:Share price 與 10x/16x/26x/36x 本益比帶,Oct-19 至 Oct-26;財務/估值圖,不嵌公司頁
報告_Daiwa_景碩3189_20261006_003.png 21KB 真資料圖 營收依產品堆疊百分比圖 2024-2028E:BT 34/36/39/32/24%、ABF 44/46/46/57/68%、Contact Lens 22/18/16/11/8%(圖例另列 PCB,圖中未見其色塊);財務類圖,不嵌公司頁

原始內容

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (3189 TT)

Target price: TWD1,580.00 (from TWD1,068.00)

Shareprice(6Oct):TWD1,070.00 | Up/downside:+47.7%

  • Rising high-end ABF substrate likely to drive blended ASP increase
  • Multicore and optics likely to be the next growth drivers
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call; raising 12M TP to TWD1,580

What's new: We believe an improving product mix, driven by rising Nvidia's CPU contribution, to be a key near-term share price catalyst.

What's the impact: Near-term update. After Kinsus released its August preliminary results on 23 September, we note that we had underestimated the 3Q26E gross margin expansion on product optimisation and price hike scale. The results imply a GM of 33% in August (vs. 26% in 2Q26). We therefore lift our 3Q-4Q26E gross margin to 33.2-35.1% (from 28.9-30.3%) to reflect an improving product mix, including greater CPU substrate contribution. We believe the gross margin of high-end chipset substrate may be c.50%, supporting margin expansion. We also expect a c.10% QoQ price hike for both BT and ABF substrate in 3Q26, above Kinsus' guidance of a high-single-digit% QoQ, making these substrates the other growth driver. We see further gross margin expansion in 2027-28 on the ongoing price hike trend and increasing high-end ABF substrate product mix.

Business outlook. We believe several favourable trends lie ahead. First, we see a rising contribution from high-end GPU and CPU ABF substrates. We believe Nvidia's CPU currently accounts for 5-10% of total revenue, with Kinsus holding a 70-80% market share. We also expect Kinsus to acquire a teens% market share in AMD's Venice, which should gradually ramp up from 4Q26. These will likely become key growth drivers of the ABF substrate segment in 2027, in our view. We believe the ramp-up progress for GPU substrate for these two clients is slightly slower than that for CPU. Second, we believe Kinsus will benefit from the rising BT substrate demand for optical transceivers. In our view, migration to on-board optics (OBO) and NPO/CPO will require ABF substrate beneath the optics engine (OE) in OBO; the OE and IC will need a bigger ABF substrate as we move to the NPO/CPO generation. As such, we expect the total ABF substrate demand to increase with rising adoption of optics in AI servers. Lastly, we expect the adoption of multiple-core ABF from 2028 to improve the rigidity and transmission performance before the official launch of ceramic and glasscore substrate, which we expect to increase the ABF TAM as well.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E earnings by 19-29% to reflect the better-than-expected gross margin in August. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD1,580, based on an unchanged target PER of 36x (high end of 3-year-trading range of 10-36x), applied to the 1-year-forward EPS forecast. Key downside risks: weaker-thanexpected demand for memory, PCs, gaming GPUs or AI servers.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 27-57% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely on our more bullish view on its gross margin expansion.

3

2

1

(unchanged)

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Thomas Kim (886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 1.3 - 2.2
Net profit change 29.1 28.7 18.8
Core EPS (FD) change 18.6 18.3 9.2

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 111.18-1,095.00
Market cap (USDbn) 17.18
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 428.04
Shares outstanding (m) 510
Major shareholder Asus Investment Co Ltd (13.2%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 54,062 88,448 125,676
Operating profit (m) 9,142 24,773 43,198
Net profit (m) 7,558 22,325 39,673
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 14.824 43.787 77.810
EPS change (%) 322.9 195.4 77.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 29.1 57.1 46.7
PER (x) 72.2 24.4 13.8
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.4
DPS 3.5 4.5 4.5
PBR (x) 11.6 8.1 5.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.7 15.1 8.8
ROE (%) 15.2 32.4 40.0

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus: revenue and earnings forecast revisions

(TWDm) 2026E - Previous 2026E - New 2026E - Consensus 2027E - Previous 2027E - New 2027E - Consensus 2028E - Previous 2028E - New 2028E - Consensus
Revenue 53,385 54,062 53,912 88,484 88,448 80,794 122,920 125,676 120,243
Diff (%) 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 9.5% 2.2% 4.5%
Gross Margin (%) 27.0% 29.65% 27.3% 35.6% 40.5% 33.7% 43.2% 46.37% 38.5%
Operating profit 7,578 9,142 7,907 20,449 24,773 18,170 38,330 43,198 32,345
Op Margin (%) 14.2% 16.9% 14.7% 23.1% 28.0% 22.5% 31.2% 34.4% 26.9%
Net profit 5,855 7,558 5,857 17,344 22,325 14,212 33,395 39,673 27,051
EPS 12.50 14.82 11.49 37.02 43.79 27.87 71.29 77.81 53.06
Diff (%) 18.6% 29.1% 18.3% 57.1% 9.2% 46.7%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus: quarterly and annual P&L statement

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q 2026E - 2Q 2026E - 3QE 2026E - 4QE 2027E - 1QE 2027E - 2QE 2027E - 3QE 2027E - 4QE 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net revenue 11,105 12,496 14,539 15,922 18,046 21,099 23,941 25,361 39,351 54,062 88,448 125,676
COGS (8,755) (9,235) (9,716) (10,326) (11,304) (12,750) (14,067) (14,480) (31,037) (38,032) (52,601) (67,397)
Gross profit 2,349 3,261 4,824 5,596 6,743 8,349 9,874 10,881 8,314 16,030 35,847 58,279
Operating expenses 1,459 1,582 1,841 2,006 2,274 2,637 2,993 3,170 5,645 6,888 11,074 15,081
Operating profit 891 1,679 2,983 3,590 4,469 5,712 6,881 7,711 2,670 9,142 24,773 43,198
Non-operating profit 74 106 88 90 89 84 90 92 417 358 354 359
Pre-tax profit 964 1,784 3,071 3,680 4,558 5,796 6,971 7,803 3,087 9,499 25,127 43,557
Income taxes (89) (101) (174) (208) (258) (328) (394) (441) (370) (571) (1,420) (2,462)
Net profit 549 1,311 2,586 3,112 3,986 5,132 6,230 6,978 1,596 7,558 22,325 39,673
Net EPS (TWD) 1.17 2.57 5.07 6.10 7.82 10.06 12.22 13.69 3.5 14.8 43.8 77.8
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 21.2% 26.1% 33.2% 35.1% 37.4% 39.6% 41.2% 42.9% 21.1% 29.7% 40.5% 46.4%
Operating margin 8.0% 13.4% 20.5% 22.5% 24.8% 27.1% 28.7% 30.4% 6.8% 16.9% 28.0% 34.4%
Pre-tax margin 8.7% 14.3% 21.1% 23.1% 25.3% 27.5% 29.1% 30.8% 7.8% 17.6% 28.4% 34.7%
Net margin 4.9% 10.5% 17.8% 19.5% 22.1% 24.3% 26.0% 27.5% 4.1% 14.0% 25.2% 31.6%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 29% 31% 40% 47% 63% 69% 65% 59% 29% 37% 64% 42%
Gross profit 21% 62% 146% 134% 187% 156% 105% 94% -4% 93% 124% 63%
Operating profit 78% 171% 375% 290% 402% 240% 131% 115% 144% 242% 171% 74%
Pre-tax profit 38% 188% 331% 249% 373% 225% 127% 112% 93% 208% 165% 73%
Net profit 99% 288% 662% 384% 626% 292% 141% 124% 3164% 374% 195% 78%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 3% 13% 16% 10% 13% 17% 13% 6%
Gross profit -2% 39% 48% 16% 20% 24% 18% 10%
Operating profit -3% 88% 78% 20% 24% 28% 20% 12%
Pre-tax profit -9% 85% 72% 20% 24% 27% 20% 12%
Net profit -14% 139% 97% 20% 28% 29% 21% 12%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus: 1-year forward PER bands

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus: revenue breakdown by product

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (mn) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipmnet (mn) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (mn) 1,655 1,437 1,380 1,437 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
ABF 10,191 16,526 11,978 13,319 17,998 24,558 48,820 82,562
BT 17,565 18,796 8,065 10,398 14,314 21,234 30,530 33,105
Other Revenue 5,580 6,336 6,790 6,817 7,039 8,271 9,098 10,008
Total Revenue 33,336 41,658 26,832 30,535 39,351 54,062 88,448 125,676
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (22,583) (25,771) (20,075) (21,867) (31,037) (38,032) (52,601) (67,397)
SG&A (2,879) (3,532) (3,301) (5,010) (3,433) (4,241) (6,960) (9,312)
Other op.expenses (2,413) (2,484) (2,397) (2,612) (2,212) (2,647) (4,114) (5,769)
Operating profit 5,456 9,851 1,042 1,095 2,670 9,142 24,773 43,198
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (68) (172) (332) (394) (391) (336) (356) (350)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 253 607 716 902 809 694 710 709
Pre-tax profit 5,641 10,287 1,426 1,603 3,087 9,499 25,127 43,557
Tax (672) (2,158) (256) (272) (370) (571) (1,420) (2,462)
Min. int./pref. div./others (633) (957) (1,123) (1,282) (1,121) (1,370) (1,381) (1,422)
Net profit (reported) 4,336 7,172 48 49 1,596 7,558 22,325 39,673
Net profit (adjusted) 4,336 7,172 48 49 1,596 7,558 22,325 39,673
EPS (reported)(TWD) 9.622 15.901 0.105 0.108 3.505 14.824 43.787 77.810
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 9.622 15.901 0.105 0.108 3.505 14.824 43.787 77.810
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 9.622 15.901 0.105 0.108 3.505 14.824 43.787 77.810
DPS (TWD) 4.500 6.476 1.000 1.000 1.518 3.500 4.500 4.500
EBIT 5,456 9,851 1,042 1,095 2,670 9,142 24,773 43,198
EBITDA 9,833 14,958 6,394 7,228 9,914 17,313 33,761 53,085

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 5,641 10,287 1,426 1,603 3,087 9,499 25,127 43,557
Depreciation and amortisation 4,377 5,107 5,351 6,133 7,244 8,171 8,988 9,887
Tax paid (672) (2,158) (256) (272) (370) (571) (1,420) (2,462)
Change in working capital (1,347) (176) 1,528 (906) (1,959) (3,452) (2,982) (3,707)
Other operational CF items 2,575 2,901 (1,793) 1,147 91 (634) 0 0
Cash flow from operations 10,574 15,961 6,256 7,705 8,093 13,013 29,713 47,274
Capex (13,384) (17,094) (10,136) (10,408) (6,117) (7,832) (5,483) (3,838)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 489 559 (2,351) 1,301 (1,752) (2,374) (44) (85)
Cash flow from investing (12,895) (16,535) (12,486) (9,107) (7,869) (10,206) (5,526) (3,922)
Change in debt 6,544 1,903 6,043 1,624 (1,684) (8,891) 0 (45)
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (451) (2,443) (3,438) (454) (457) (774) (1,785) (2,294)
Other financing CF items (94) 2,411 2,730 (173) (1,130) 8,625 0 0
Cash flow from financing 6,000 1,870 5,335 996 (3,270) (1,041) (1,785) (2,340)
Forex effect/others (12) 56 (88) 71 (39) 51 39 35
Change in cash 3,667 1,352 (983) (335) (3,084) 1,817 22,441 41,047
Free cash flow (2,809) (1,133) (3,880) (2,703) 1,976 5,181 24,230 43,436

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 15,968 17,923 21,013 16,676 16,336 21,188 43,628 84,676
Inventory 3,466 3,481 2,612 2,981 4,828 6,237 8,747 10,924
Accounts receivable 5,679 5,050 4,299 5,284 6,804 10,300 16,405 22,824
Other current assets 1,312 1,647 1,445 4,735 970 1,080 1,080 1,080
Total current assets 26,424 28,100 29,369 29,677 28,938 38,804 69,860 119,503
Fixed assets 31,586 44,101 48,209 49,658 50,897 51,643 48,138 42,089
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 376 432 489 100 138 434 478 562
Total assets 58,386 72,633 78,067 79,435 79,973 90,882 118,476 162,154
Short-term debt 1,100 377 1,409 2,452 3,053 915 915 869
Accounts payable 10,150 10,798 8,457 7,521 10,030 14,004 19,638 24,526
Other current liabilities 2,733 4,199 4,393 7,018 7,023 5,571 5,571 5,571
Total current liabilities 13,983 15,374 14,259 16,990 20,106 20,490 26,124 30,966
Long-term debt 9,387 10,770 15,280 13,779 11,197 6,219 6,219 6,219
Other non-current liabilities 2,027 7,674 9,369 8,788 7,297 6,318 6,318 6,318
Total liabilities 25,397 33,818 38,908 39,557 38,600 33,027 38,661 43,503
Share capital 4,508 4,528 4,544 4,566 4,568 5,269 5,269 5,269
Reserves/R.E./others 28,481 34,288 34,615 35,312 36,805 52,585 74,546 113,382
Shareholders' equity 32,989 38,816 39,159 39,878 41,373 57,854 79,815 118,651
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 58,386 72,633 78,067 79,435 79,973 90,882 118,476 162,154
EV 540,075 538,779 541,231 545,110 543,470 531,501 509,061 467,968
Net debt/(cash) (5,481) (6,776) (4,325) (445) (2,085) (14,054) (36,495) (77,588)
BVPS (TWD) 64.478 75.804 69.748 69.314 71.656 92.357 131.414 202.420

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 23.0 25.0 (35.6) 13.8 28.9 37.4 63.6 42.1
EBITDA (YoY) 70.8 52.1 (57.3) 13.1 37.1 74.6 95.0 57.2
Operating profit (YoY) 307.0 80.6 (89.4) 5.1 143.7 242.4 171.0 74.4
Net profit (YoY) 700.2 65.4 (99.3) 2.9 3,164.4 373.6 195.4 77.7
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 698.1 65.3 (99.3) 2.5 3,153.4 322.9 195.4 77.7
Gross-profit margin 32.3 38.1 25.2 28.4 21.1 29.7 40.5 46.4
EBITDA margin 29.5 35.9 23.8 23.7 25.2 32.0 38.2 42.2
Operating-profit margin 16.4 23.6 3.9 3.6 6.8 16.9 28.0 34.4
Net profit margin 13.0 17.2 0.2 0.2 4.1 14.0 25.2 31.6
ROAE 13.9 20.0 0.1 0.1 3.9 15.2 32.4 40.0
ROAA 8.6 10.9 0.1 0.1 2.0 8.8 21.3 28.3
ROCE 14.0 21.1 2.0 2.0 4.8 15.2 32.6 40.6
ROIC 19.9 26.1 2.6 2.4 6.0 20.7 53.7 96.6
Net debt to equity net cash net cash 2.5 4.6 4.8 net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 11.9 21.0 17.9 17.0 12.0 6.0 5.7 5.7
Accounts receivable (days) 55.2 47.0 63.6 57.3 56.1 57.7 55.1 57.0
Current ratio (x) 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.9
Net interest cover (x) 84.0 61.0 5.3 5.1 8.9 29.3 71.6 125.5
Net dividend payout 52.6 41.9 909.2 909.2 43.2 23.5 10.3 5.8
Free cash flow yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.4 0.9 4.4 8.0

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Kinsus was founded in 2000 as a subsidiary of Asustek. The company mainly focus on niche ball grid array (BGA) substrates to avoid price competition among mainstream products like graphics card and chipsets, and it has become top-3 flip chip manufacturer in global. Besides, its manufacturing sites are based in Taiwan and mainland China.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 2 Kinsus's leadership team comprises experienced professionals dedicated to steering the company towards sustainable growth. This diverse board composition ensures a comprehensive range of expertise and perspectives, contributing to Kinsus's strategic decision-making and corporate governamce.
G Capital management 2 Kinsus maintains a robust financial framework, ensuring the availability of resources necessary for operational efficiency and strategic investments. The company's financial health is regularly disclosed through annual reports, providing transparency to stakeholders.
Related transaction Supplychain management party & 1 The company adheres to stringent corporate governance policies to manage related party transactions, ensuring transparency and compliance with regulatory standards. The company discloses such transactions in its financial reports, maintaining accountability and stakeholder trust. For instance, the company's annual general meeting documents provide details on related party transactions, ensuring transparency and accountability.
S 1 Kinsus is committed to sustainable supply chain practices, emphasizing environmental, social, and governance considerations. The company has established comprehensive ESG policies, including commitments to labor standards, environmental health and safety, ethics, and conflict- free minerals. These policies guide the company's interactions with suppliers and partners, promoting sustainability throughout the supply chain.
E Datasecurity 3 The company recognizes the importance of information security in its operations. As part of its corporate governance framework, Kinsus is likely to implement standard data protection practices to safeguard sensitive information and ensure compliance with relevant regulations. Stakeholders are encouraged to consult the company's official communications or contact the company directly for detailed information on data security policies.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 31 Jan 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company