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報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20260828

更新 2026-09-01

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20260828_original.pdf

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報告_Daiwa_建準2421_20260828_003.png 63KB 真資料圖 建準營收結構堆疊長條圖,2019-2028E,各年度依 IT&OE/Telecom & Server/Industrial Medical Equipment/Home Application/Distribution/Automobile/LED lighting 分項占比,顯示 Telecom & Server 占比由 2019 年 26% 逐年攀升至 2028E 約 68%,IT&OE 占比由 37% 降至 1%
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原始內容

Taiwan

28 August 2026

Sunonwealth Electric Machine Industry (2421 TT)

5

Daiwa

2

1

Buy

Helen Chien

Helen Chien

(886) 2 8758 6254 helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 2.2 6.2 6.2
Net profit change 5.8 13.6 13.2
Core EPS (FD) change 5.7 13.6 13.2

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 120.35-188.48
Market cap (USDbn) 1.38
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 15.49
Shares outstanding (m) 273
Major shareholder Hung family (33.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 23,186 27,364 31,278
Operating profit (m) 3,803 4,843 5,661
Net profit (m) 3,136 3,975 4,608
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 11.041 13.881 16.092
EPS change (%) 39.3 25.7 15.9
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 5.6 12.2 12.8
PER (x) 14.4 11.5 9.9
Dividend yield (%) 4.8 6.1 7.1
DPS 7.7 9.7 11.3
PBR (x) 4.3 3.7 3.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 7.5 6.3
ROE (%) 32.4 35.0 34.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Target price:

TWD236.00 (from TWD205.00)

Share price (27 Aug): TWD159.50 | Up/downside:

+48.0%

Stronger-than-expected earnings visibility

  • Rising liquid cooling contribution in 2027 from a low base in 2026
  • Likely EPS upward revision trend in the near term
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call; raising 12M TP to TWD236

What's new: Following our update with Sunon's management on 28 August, we reaffirm our Buy (1) call, as we expect its 2026 outlook for telecom, server, industrial and auto segments to remain intact, with both gross and operating margin set to expand. We now forecast its net profit CAGR at 21.2% for 2026-28E, up from 17.2% previously (see previous flash on 7 August).

What's the impact: Rising liquid cooling revenue exposure in 2027. We expect its cold plate products (ie, enterprise and GPU clients) to contribute revenue from 4Q26 (low single % revenue contribution) and to be in the process of certification for CSP clients. Sunon also offers other liquid cooling products, such as CDUs.

From fan to air-cooling module, with fan spec upgrade trend and new applications. Sunon plans to deliver fan modules in the server segment to ODM and enterprise clients by the end of 2026, extending its more integrated product solutions. We believe AI server demand will further support spec upgrade in its fan products. We are also positive on the development of Sunon's EC fans (ie, for infrastructure) for the industrial segment, as well as its air-cooling solutions for power racks.

Upward EPS revision trend likely, with intact near-term revenue and earnings outlook. We expect 3Q26 revenue, supported by record-high monthly revenue in July 2026, and similar levels in August and September to grow by 16.6% QoQ (vs. Bloomberg consensus of 10.3% QoQ) and 4Q26 revenue to increase by 1.7% QoQ (vs. Bloomberg consensus of flat QoQ). Furthermore, we forecast its gross margin of 32.5% in 2H26 vs. the Bloomberg consensus of 31.9%. We revise our 2026-28E EPS by 6-14%, mainly on higher revenue, gross- and operating-margin assumptions.

What we recommend: We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD236 (from TWD205), based on a target PER of 18x (from 17x vs. its past-5-year PER range of 6-25x), applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast. We use a higher target multiple to reflect stronger earnings visibility amid intact demand from the server, telecom, industrial and auto segments. Downside risks: weaker-than-expected gross-margin expansion and slower AI server development progress.

How we differ: We are one of only two overseas brokers covering the stock. Our 2026-28E EPS is 6-13% above than the Bloomberg consensus, due to our more aggressive revenue, and gross-/operating-margin estimates.

→

Sunon: revenue and earnings forecast revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) New Previous Change New Previous Change New Previous Change
Sales 23,186 22,678 2.2% 27,364 25,773 6.2% 31,278 29,453 6.2%
Gross profit 7,420 7,211 2.9% 9,030 8,325 8.5% 10,384 9,572 8.5%
Gross margin 32.0% 31.8% 0.2pp 33.0% 32.3% 0.7pp 33.2% 32.5% 0.7pp
Operating profit 3,803 3,628 4.8% 4,843 4,330 11.9% 5,661 5,066 11.8%
Operating margin 16.4% 16.0% 0.4pp 17.7% 16.8% 0.9pp 18.1% 17.2% 0.9pp
Net profit 3,136 2,965 5.8% 3,975 3,500 13.6% 4,608 4,069 13.2%
Net margin 13.5% 13.1% 0.4pp 14.5% 13.6% 0.9pp 14.7% 13.8% 0.9pp
Fully diluted EPS (TWD) 11.04 10.45 5.7% 13.88 12.22 13.6% 16.09 14.21 13.2%

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Sunon: quarterly and annual P&L

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E
Revenue 5,019 5,419 6,319 6,429 6,500 6,600 6,800 7,464 23,186 27,364 31,278
Gross profit 1,589 1,693 2,041 2,096 2,126 2,165 2,244 2,496 7,420 9,030 10,384
Operating profit 788 836 1141 1037 1126 1125 1224 1369 3,803 4,843 5,661
Pre-tax profit 805 912 1218 1114 1198 1197 1296 1442 4,050 5,133 5,951
Net profit 649 690 950 846 970 910 1011 1083 3,136 3,975 4,608
Basic EPS (TWD) 2.36 2.42 3.33 2.97 3.40 3.19 3.55 3.80 11.08 13.94 16.16
Margin
Gross margin 31.7% 31.3% 32.3% 32.6% 32.7% 32.8% 33.0% 33.4% 32.0% 33.0% 33.2%
Operating margin 15.7% 15.4% 18.1% 16.1% 17.3% 17.0% 18.0% 18.3% 16.4% 17.7% 18.1%
Pre-tax margin 16.0% 16.8% 19.3% 17.3% 18.4% 18.1% 19.1% 19.3% 17.5% 18.8% 19.0%
Net margin 12.9% 12.7% 15.0% 13.2% 14.9% 13.8% 14.9% 14.5% 13.5% 14.5% 14.7%
YoY
Revenue 20.6% 16.2% 28.1% 30.7% 29.5% 21.8% 7.6% 16.1% 24.1% 18.0% 14.3%
Gross profit 30.5% 18.9% 32.0% 29.9% 33.7% 27.8% 9.9% 19.1% 27.9% 21.7% 15.0%
Operating profit 52.9% 16.9% 48.5% 28.0% 42.8% 34.5% 7.3% 32.0% 35.4% 27.4% 16.9%
Pre-tax profit 38.7% 76.5% 35.6% 39.0% 48.9% 31.2% 6.4% 29.4% 44.8% 26.8% 15.9%
Net profit 37.5% 84.5% 36.9% 35.4% 49.5% 31.9% 6.4% 28.0% 44.8% 26.8% 15.9%
QoQ
Revenue 2.1% 8.0% 16.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.5% 3.0% 9.8%
Gross profit -1.5% 6.5% 20.5% 2.7% 1.4% 1.8% 3.7% 11.2%
Operating profit -2.7% 6.1% 36.5% -9.1% 8.5% -0.1% 8.8% 11.9%
Pre-tax profit 0.4% 13.4% 33.5% -8.6% 7.5% -0.1% 8.3% 11.2%
Net profit 3.8% 6.3% 37.7% -10.9% 14.7% -6.2% 11.1% 7.1%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Sunon: product mix

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Sunonwealth Electric Machine Industry (2421 TT): 28 August 2026

Sunon: 1-year forward PER

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Automotive revenue YoY growth (%) 6.1 59.5 9.1 31.1 2.8 20 10 5
IT&OE revenue YoY growth (%) 2.3 (26.8) (16.8) (10.7) 13.8 15 0 0
Telecom & server revenue YoY growth (%) 6.5 16.2 21.4 43.5 40.4 30 25 20

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Telecom & Server revenue 3,838 4,458 5,411 7,765 10,901 14,172 17,714 21,257
Industrial & Medical equipment & Automobile revenue 2,645 3,178 2,686 2,910 3,400 4,167 4,802 5,173
Other Revenue 7,079 6,427 4,817 3,948 4,377 4,848 4,848 4,848
Total Revenue 13,562 14,063 12,915 14,624 18,678 23,186 27,364 31,278
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (11,026) (10,892) (9,313) (10,467) (12,876) (15,767) (18,334) (20,894)
SG&A (1,258) (1,268) (1,272) (1,587) (1,910) (2,272) (2,627) (2,971)
Other op.expenses (814) (781) (799) (893) (1,082) (1,345) (1,560) (1,752)
Operating profit 464 1,122 1,530 1,677 2,809 3,803 4,843 5,661
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (14) (30) 49 95 71 97 90 90
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 136 334 172 210 (83) 150 200 200
Pre-tax profit 585 1,426 1,752 1,982 2,797 4,050 5,133 5,951
Tax (156) (337) (418) (490) (631) (914) (1,159) (1,343)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 429 1,089 1,334 1,492 2,165 3,136 3,975 4,608
Net profit (adjusted) 429 1,089 1,334 1,492 2,165 3,136 3,975 4,608
EPS (reported)(TWD) 1.711 4.340 5.163 5.457 7.937 11.083 13.938 16.159
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 1.711 4.340 5.163 5.457 7.937 11.083 13.938 16.159
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 1.711 4.327 5.074 5.448 7.924 11.041 13.881 16.092
DPS (TWD) 1.200 2.600 3.500 3.687 5.442 7.680 9.734 11.285
EBIT 464 1,122 1,530 1,677 2,809 3,803 4,843 5,661
EBITDA 981 1,635 2,065 2,171 3,359 4,143 5,261 6,140

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 585 1,426 1,752 1,982 2,797 4,050 5,133 5,951
Depreciation and amortisation 517 513 534 495 550 341 417 478
Tax paid (156) (337) (418) (490) (631) (914) (1,159) (1,343)
Change in working capital (874) 292 387 (465) (254) (945) (587) (816)
Other operational CF items 118 264 (81) 160 836 (92) (90) (90)
Cash flow from operations 191 2,158 2,175 1,682 3,297 2,439 3,715 4,180
Capex (444) (394) (298) (513) (953) (1,500) (1,000) (1,000)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 178 0 (14) (2) (29) (29) (29) (29)
Other investing CF items (215) (44) (43) (229) (132) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (480) (438) (354) (745) (1,114) (1,529) (1,029) (1,029)
Change in debt 1,279 (662) (830) 470 (458) 117 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (602) (301) (652) (957) (1,012) (1,499) (2,173) (2,754)
Other financing CF items (91) (226) 1,274 77 (49) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 585 (1,189) (208) (410) (1,519) (1,382) (2,173) (2,754)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash 296 531 1,612 527 664 (473) 512 397
Free cash flow (253) 1,764 1,877 1,169 2,344 939 2,715 3,180

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Sunonwealth Electric Machine Industry (2421 TT): 28 August 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 1,912 2,457 4,031 4,678 5,256 4,834 5,469 5,989
Inventory 2,763 2,863 2,052 2,181 2,424 3,127 3,544 4,091
Accounts receivable 3,546 3,555 3,180 4,247 5,413 6,491 7,652 8,752
Other current assets 169 150 313 332 100 100 100 100
Total current assets 8,391 9,026 9,576 11,438 13,193 14,552 16,765 18,931
Fixed assets 2,059 2,273 2,171 2,461 3,054 4,213 4,796 5,318
Goodwill & intangibles 24 27 24 53 63 63 63 63
Other non-current assets 1,043 866 843 1,046 1,117 1,117 1,117 1,117
Total assets 11,517 12,192 12,615 14,998 17,427 19,945 22,741 25,429
Short-term debt 1,985 1,408 640 1,050 586 703 703 703
Accounts payable 3,986 4,530 3,846 4,759 6,174 7,010 8,001 8,831
Other current liabilities 268 385 235 273 429 429 429 429
Total current liabilities 6,239 6,323 4,721 6,082 7,189 8,141 9,132 9,962
Long-term debt 524 287 213 478 613 613 613 613
Other non-current liabilities 387 380 462 517 738 738 738 738
Total liabilities 7,151 6,989 5,396 7,078 8,539 9,492 10,483 11,313
Share capital 2,509 2,509 2,734 2,734 2,734 2,829 2,829 2,829
Reserves/R.E./others 1,857 2,693 4,484 5,186 6,153 7,623 9,429 11,286
Shareholders' equity 4,367 5,202 7,219 7,920 8,887 10,453 12,258 14,116
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 11,517 12,192 12,615 14,998 17,427 19,945 22,741 25,429
EV 44,211 42,852 40,437 40,464 39,556 40,096 39,460 38,941
Net debt/(cash) 597 (763) (3,178) (3,150) (4,058) (3,519) (4,154) (4,673)
BVPS (TWD) 17.402 20.733 26.399 28.859 32.265 36.942 43.323 49.888

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 6.1 3.7 (8.2) 13.2 27.7 24.1 18.0 14.3
EBITDA (YoY) (37.3) 66.6 26.3 5.2 54.7 23.3 27.0 16.7
Operating profit (YoY) (58.4) 142.0 36.4 9.6 67.5 35.4 27.4 16.9
Net profit (YoY) (49.6) 153.7 22.5 11.9 45.1 44.8 26.8 15.9
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (49.6) 153.0 17.3 7.4 45.5 39.3 25.7 15.9
Gross-profit margin 18.7 22.5 27.9 28.4 31.1 32.0 33.0 33.2
EBITDA margin 7.2 11.6 16.0 14.8 18.0 17.9 19.2 19.6
Operating-profit margin 3.4 8.0 11.8 11.5 15.0 16.4 17.7 18.1
Net profit margin 3.2 7.7 10.3 10.2 11.6 13.5 14.5 14.7
ROAE 9.6 22.8 21.5 19.7 25.8 32.4 35.0 34.9
ROAA 3.9 9.2 10.8 10.8 13.4 16.8 18.6 19.1
ROCE 7.3 16.3 20.4 19.1 28.8 34.8 38.2 39.0
ROIC 7.4 18.2 27.5 28.7 45.3 50.1 49.9 50.0
Net debt to equity 13.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 26.7 23.6 23.8 24.7 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6
Accounts receivable (days) 92.9 92.1 95.2 92.7 94.4 93.7 94.3 95.7
Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
Net interest cover (x) 32.6 37.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 70.1 59.9 67.8 67.6 68.6 69.3 69.8 69.8
Free cash flow yield n.a. 4.0 4.3 2.7 5.4 2.2 6.2 7.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1980 and listed on Taiwan's main board in 2000, Sunonwealth Electric Machine Industry (Sunon) is one of the top-4 fan and motor providers in the world, along with Delta Electronics, Nidec and ebm-papst. Its major clients are Apple, Dell, Lenovo, Bosch, Siemens and Tesla. Its applications include IT & OE, telecoms & servers, industrial & medical equipment, home applications, distribution, autos and LED lighting.

Sunonwealth Electric Machine Industry (2421 TT): 28 August 2026

Daiwa

Sunonwealth Electric Machine Industry (2421 TT): 28 August 2026

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 The CEO and chairperson of Sunonwealth are the same individual; Sunonwealth's board is led by the Hung family. We see no issues with the company's board. We view the chairman leading the R&D team as a sign of the company's continuing focus on developing new products to achieve a long-term competitive advantage.
G Capital management 2 Sunonwealth's dividend payout ratio was 83-88% in 2015-18, but it decreased to 60-69% during 2022-25 due to its capacity expansion plans.
G Related party & transaction 2 Revenue generated from related-party transactions was less than 1% of total revenue during 2023-25.
E Materials sourcing & efficiency 1 Sunonwealth's sourcing of raw materials has been relatively stable (including IC, copper, plastic, aluminium and steel), and we also note that Sunonwealth abides by RoHS regulations and relevant international standards (ISO14001, IECQ QC080000, ISO9001) for its material sourcing activities. With the ongoing ESG trend, its clients may move towards a more energy-efficient production cycle, which will likely benefit Sunonwealth's energy-efficient products.
E Product design & lifecycle management 2 Sunonwealth has improved its product designs to stronger but lighter form factors. Besides, we have observed more green projects utilising Sunonwealth's capabilities. Thus, we believe Sunonwealth has strong product design and lifecycle management capabilities to address the ongoing changing business environment.
S Product quality & safety 2 Sunonwealth has its own Quality Strategy Centre to evaluate quality issues. With international standards in place, we believe Sunonwealth has taken relevant measures to address product quality and safety issues.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 8 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Daiwa