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報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20261029

更新 2026-10-30

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20261029_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20261029_001.png 23,853B 真資料圖 股價走勢折線圖:Delta Ele 股價(左軸,TWD 800-2,550)與相對 TWSE 指數表現(右軸,%),橫軸 Oct-25–Oct-26
報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20261029_002.png 30,233B 真資料圖 1 年期前瞻 PER band 圖:股價線(深藍)對應 23x/31x/39x/48x 四條本益比軌跡線,橫軸 Oct-17–Oct-26;2026 年股價自高點約 2,400 回落至約 1,500,貼近 31x 線
報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20261029_003.png 33,224B 真資料圖 各事業部營業利益率季度折線圖(1Q23–3Q26):Power Electronics 約 19%(3Q26)、Infrastructure 約 18-19%(逼近 Power Electronics)、Automation 轉正約 5%、Mobility 約 -2%

全數 3 張逐張檢視(<40KB 者以拼圖逐張確認),無裝飾/文字卡。訂閱者浮水印(Prepared for 讀者姓名)已自文字層遮蔽(Citi),分析師姓名與聯絡信箱保留。

原始內容

Delta Electronics (2308 TT)

Target price: TWD3,000.00 (from TWD3,088.00)

Shareprice(29Oct):TWD1,480.00 | Up/downside:+102.7%

3Q26 review: margin likely bottomed-out

  • Gross margin to recover on lower inventory provisions in 4Q26
  • Addressable market remains intact despite some near-term hiccups
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; trimming 12M TP to TWD3,000

What's new: We provide our latest views on Delta after its 3Q26 results call on 29 October.

What's the impact: Business outlook. During the results call, Delta remained positive on AI monetisation after its analysis of Anthropic's S-1 filing. Management flagged shortages of components, power and skilled electricians and slower-than-expected data centre buildout to be potential hiccups in the process; however, it still sees strong underlying demand. As such, we still expect sequential revenue growth in both 4Q26E and 1Q27E as component shortages had deferred 3Q26 demand. On rising material costs, Delta noted that BoM costs have increased by 2% as of 3Q26 (vs. early 2026), with the company gradually passing these costs through to end customers in 4Q26 and 1Q27. We believe the main gross margin driver will likely still be the absence of inventory write-offs and a higher power mix in 4Q26E. We forecast a gross margin recovery to 36% and a record operating margin of 18.5% in 4Q26. As for long-term growth, we maintain our investment theses that DC-DC module and HVDC adoption will become key growth drivers for Delta in 2027 and 2028, respectively.

3Q26 results missed on gross margin. Delta's 3Q26 earnings were TWD23.5bn (EPS: TWD9.04), missing our estimate of TWD27.3bn and Bloomberg consensus estimate of TWD29.6bn by 14% and 21%, respectively. We attribute the weakness mainly to lower-than-expected gross margin, driven by: 1) higher-than-expected inventory write-offs amid product shipment hiccups; 2) a one-off provision for customer claims, with the related loss likely to ultimately be borne by the supplier; and 3) rising material costs. Based on our calculation, Delta recognised c.TWD4bn of inventory provision loss in 3Q26, which reduced gross margin by 2pp. Excluding inventory provision loss, gross margin was c.35.8%, close to our previous estimate of 36.3%. 3Q26 revenue reached TWD197.1bn (up 8% QoQ and 31% YoY), which was also negatively affected by product shipment hiccups (vs. our previous estimate of 10% QoQ growth).

What we recommend: We trim our 2026-28E EPS by 2-6% to reflect lower revenue assumptions due to the impact of component shortages. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call but trim our 12M TP to TWD3,000 (from TWD3,088) based on an unchanged target PER of 49x (high-end of its 3year range of 11-50x) applied to our 1-year-forward EPS forecast. Key downside risk: lower-than-expected demand.

How we differ: Our 2028E revenue is 12% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely on our more bullish assumption regarding HVDC adoption.

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2

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(unchanged)

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Thomas Kim (886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (2.1) (4.5) (4.4)
Net profit change (5.7) (3.6) (2.2)
Core EPS (FD) change (5.7) (3.6) (2.2)

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 890.00-2,520.00
Market cap (USDbn) 118.57
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 657.14
Shares outstanding (m) 2,598
Major shareholder HsiangTa International (10.3%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 756,535 1,080,156 1,749,466
Operating profit (m) 131,954 220,210 397,270
Net profit (m) 98,942 159,427 289,735
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 38.091 61.376 111.542
EPS change (%) 64.6 61.1 81.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (5.7) (4.4) 17.0
PER (x) 38.9 24.1 13.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.4 2.0
DPS 11.6 20.0 30.0
PBR (x) 10.6 7.9 5.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.9 15.0 8.6
ROE (%) 31.4 37.5 47.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Delta: revenue and earnings forecasts - Daiwa vs. consensus

(TWDm) 2026E - Previous 2026E - New 2026E - Consensus 2027E - Previous 2027E - New 2027E - Consensus 2028E - Previous 2028E - New 2028E - Consensus
Revenue 772,369 756,535 774,837 1,130,604 1,080,156 1,048,818 1,830,517 1,749,466 1,557,095
Diff (%) -2.1% -2.4% -4.5% 3.0% -4.4% 12.4%
Gross Margin (%) 36.4% 35.6% 36.3% 36.6% 36.8% 37.4% 37.4% 38.1% 37.8%
Operating profit 139,487 131,954 139,160 228,659 220,210 226,553 406,934 397,270 339,515
Op Margin (%) 18.1% 17.4% 18.0% 20.2% 20.4% 21.6% 22.2% 22.7% 21.8%
Net profit 104,917 98,942 104,917 165,332 159,427 166,703 296,181 289,735 247,703
EPS 40.39 38.09 40.39 63.65 61.38 64.18 114.02 111.54 95.36
Diff (%) -5.7% -5.7% -3.6% -4.4% -2.2% 17.0%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Delta: quarterly and annual P&L statement

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q 2026E - 2Q 2026E - 3Q 2026E - 4QE 2027E - 1QE 2027E - 2QE 2027E - 3QE 2027E - 4QE 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net revenue 159,353 183,256 197,059 216,867 221,125 252,973 287,220 318,838 554,885 756,535 1,080,156 1,749,466
COGS -100,392 -117,948 -129,904 -138,786 -140,612 -159,902 -180,713 -201,475 -364,729 -487,030 -682,702 -1,083,192
Gross profit 58,961 65,308 67,155 78,082 80,512 93,071 106,508 117,363 190,157 269,505 397,454 666,274
Operating expenses -30,544 -34,738 -34,535 -37,735 -38,476 -42,499 -46,530 -49,739 -106,224 -137,551 -177,244 -269,004
Operating profit 28,417 30,570 32,620 40,347 42,037 50,571 59,978 67,624 83,932 131,954 220,210 397,270
Non-operating profit 2,676 4,430 1,046 1,694 1,199 1,187 1,179 1,390 3,934 9,846 4,955 5,249
Pretax profit 31,093 35,000 33,666 42,041 43,236 51,758 61,157 69,014 87,866 141,800 225,165 402,518
Income taxes -7,258 -7,831 -7,608 -9,249 -9,512 -11,387 -13,455 -15,183 -19,930 -31,946 -49,536 -86,541
Net profit 20,556 25,136 23,495 29,756 30,407 36,577 43,394 49,049 60,108 98,942 159,427 289,735
Net EPS (TWD) 7.91 9.68 9.04 11.46 11.71 14.08 16.71 18.88 23.14 38.09 61.38 111.54
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 37.0% 35.6% 34.1% 36.0% 36.4% 36.8% 37.1% 36.8% 34.3% 35.6% 36.8% 38.1%
Operating margin 17.8% 16.7% 16.6% 18.6% 19.0% 20.0% 20.9% 21.2% 15.1% 17.4% 20.4% 22.7%
Pre-tax margin 19.5% 19.1% 17.1% 19.4% 19.6% 20.5% 21.3% 21.6% 15.8% 18.7% 20.8% 23.0%
Net margin 12.9% 13.7% 11.9% 13.7% 13.8% 14.5% 15.1% 15.4% 10.8% 13.1% 14.8% 16.6%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 34% 48% 31% 34% 39% 38% 46% 47% 32% 36% 43% 62%
Gross profit 56% 48% 28% 40% 37% 43% 59% 50% 39% 42% 47% 68%
Operating profit 102% 64% 31% 53% 48% 65% 84% 68% 76% 57% 67% 80%
Pretax profit 99% 79% 25% 64% 39% 48% 82% 64% 71% 61% 59% 79%
Net profit 101% 80% 26% 72% 48% 46% 85% 65% 71% 65% 61% 82%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue -1% 15% 8% 10% 2% 14% 14% 11%
Gross profit 5% 11% 3% 16% 3% 16% 14% 10%
Operating profit 8% 8% 7% 24% 4% 20% 19% 13%
Pretax profit 21% 13% -4% 25% 3% 20% 18% 13%
Net profit 19% 22% -7% 27% 2% 20% 19% 13%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecast

Delta: 1-year forward PER band

Delta: operating margin by segment (quarterly)

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Company

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Automation revenue growth (YoY) 18 19 (0) (3) 5 12 8 7
Infrastructure revenue growth (YoY) (8) 26 (4) 2 82 37 45 46
Power Electronics sales growth (YoY) 21 21 9 (10) 25 46 49 80

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Power Electronics 187,316 227,311 248,257 223,992 280,032 409,251 610,724 1,099,848
Automation 45,881 54,519 54,296 52,403 54,943 61,691 66,914 71,587
Other Revenue 81,474 102,613 98,674 144,752 219,911 285,593 402,518 578,031
Total Revenue 314,671 384,443 401,227 421,148 554,885 756,535 1,080,156 1,749,466
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (224,461) (273,671) (284,013) (284,567) (364,729) (487,030) (682,702) (1,083,192)
SG&A (31,642) (37,564) (40,215) (47,354) (57,482) (73,967) (91,411) (139,621)
Other op.expenses (27,202) (31,770) (36,048) (41,575) (48,743) (63,584) (85,832) (129,383)
Operating profit 31,365 41,439 40,950 47,652 83,932 131,954 220,210 397,270
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 134 38 899 1,859 1,501 1,517 1,475 1,469
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 4,128 4,588 6,793 1,804 2,433 8,329 3,480 3,780
Pre-tax profit 35,628 46,065 48,642 51,316 87,866 141,800 225,165 402,518
Tax (7,128) (9,075) (9,762) (10,925) (19,930) (31,946) (49,536) (86,541)
Min. int./pref. div./others (1,703) (4,325) (5,488) (5,163) (7,828) (10,912) (16,202) (26,242)
Net profit (reported) 26,796 32,666 33,393 35,229 60,108 98,942 159,427 289,735
Net profit (adjusted) 26,796 32,666 33,393 35,229 60,108 98,942 159,427 289,735
EPS (reported)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 38.091 61.376 111.542
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 38.091 61.376 111.542
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 38.091 61.376 111.542
DPS (TWD) 5.500 5.500 9.840 6.430 7.000 11.600 20.000 30.000
EBIT 31,365 41,439 40,950 47,652 83,932 131,954 220,210 397,270
EBITDA 48,516 60,375 62,540 72,668 111,771 161,119 257,184 441,438

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 35,628 46,065 48,642 51,316 87,866 141,800 225,165 402,518
Depreciation and amortisation 17,151 18,936 21,590 25,016 27,839 29,164 36,974 44,168
Tax paid (7,128) (9,075) (9,762) (10,925) (19,930) (31,946) (49,536) (86,541)
Change in working capital (20,506) (20,062) 2,466 (2,538) (24,348) (75,518) (99,763) (139,263)
Other operational CF items 3,175 10,665 8,151 10,025 27,047 (155) (80) (80)
Cash flow from operations 28,319 46,529 71,086 72,895 98,474 63,346 112,760 220,802
Capex (23,027) (21,824) (27,830) (33,485) (46,091) (70,358) (64,809) (83,974)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (1,953) (2,489) (5,421) (304) (2,702) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (1,501) (406) (251) (6,571) (4,420) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (26,481) (24,719) (33,502) (40,360) (53,214) (70,358) (64,809) (83,974)
Change in debt 6,993 (1,900) 10,327 7,135 11,729 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (15,751) (15,026) (27,455) (18,696) (20,313) (30,132) (51,951) (77,926)
Other financing CF items 421 (2,814) 6,651 444 (817) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (8,337) (19,739) (10,478) (11,118) (9,401) (30,132) (51,951) (77,926)
Forex effect/others (2,358) 9,621 (1,198) 8,586 (2,146) 0 0 0
Change in cash (8,857) 11,692 25,909 30,003 33,713 (37,143) (4,001) 58,901
Free cash flow 5,292 24,705 43,257 39,410 52,383 (7,011) 47,950 136,828

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 51,268 63,572 92,620 121,793 155,113 117,970 113,969 172,871
Inventory 69,697 83,980 81,756 89,706 108,208 146,708 211,561 313,213
Accounts receivable 72,700 89,676 81,706 92,180 125,020 168,618 237,859 351,023
Other current assets 3,213 3,222 3,877 7,246 7,440 7,440 7,440 7,440
Total current assets 196,878 240,450 259,958 310,925 395,781 440,736 570,829 844,547
Fixed assets 76,607 86,267 98,002 115,710 142,040 183,233 211,068 250,875
Goodwill & intangibles 73,610 77,170 78,544 78,783 75,326 75,326 75,326 75,326
Other non-current assets 18,017 21,987 21,242 26,480 26,472 26,626 26,706 26,786
Total assets 365,112 425,874 457,747 531,898 639,619 725,922 883,930 1,197,534
Short-term debt 4,442 2,119 5,875 8,121 17,325 2,364 2,364 2,364
Accounts payable 54,570 62,716 53,539 69,223 94,452 101,032 135,362 210,916
Other current liabilities 49,157 60,179 66,671 74,939 97,888 97,888 97,888 97,888
Total current liabilities 108,169 125,013 126,085 152,283 209,665 201,285 235,615 311,169
Long-term debt 43,914 44,337 51,420 56,309 56,703 56,703 56,703 56,703
Other non-current liabilities 26,904 31,156 37,506 43,740 47,861 47,861 47,861 47,861
Total liabilities 178,988 200,507 215,011 252,332 314,230 305,849 340,179 415,733
Share capital 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975
Reserves/R.E./others 128,811 160,813 173,188 204,112 242,083 336,766 460,444 698,495
Shareholders' equity 154,787 186,789 199,164 230,087 268,058 362,741 486,419 724,470
Minority interests 31,338 38,578 43,572 49,478 57,331 57,331 57,331 57,331
Total equity & liabilities 365,112 425,874 457,747 531,898 639,619 725,922 883,930 1,197,534
EV 3,872,790 3,865,827 3,852,611 3,836,479 3,820,611 3,842,793 3,846,793 3,787,892
Net debt/(cash) (2,912) (17,115) (35,325) (57,363) (81,085) (58,903) (54,902) (113,803)
BVPS (TWD) 59.590 71.910 76.674 88.579 103.197 139.648 187.261 278.906

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 11.3 22.2 4.4 5.0 31.8 36.3 42.8 62.0
EBITDA (YoY) 2.6 24.4 3.6 16.2 53.8 44.2 59.6 71.6
Operating profit (YoY) (0.2) 32.1 (1.2) 16.4 76.1 57.2 66.9 80.4
Net profit (YoY) 5.1 21.9 2.2 5.5 70.6 64.6 61.1 81.7
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 5.1 21.9 2.2 5.5 70.6 64.6 61.1 81.7
Gross-profit margin 28.7 28.8 29.2 32.4 34.3 35.6 36.8 38.1
EBITDA margin 15.4 15.7 15.6 17.3 20.1 21.3 23.8 25.2
Operating-profit margin 10.0 10.8 10.2 11.3 15.1 17.4 20.4 22.7
Net profit margin 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 10.8 13.1 14.8 16.6
ROAE 17.8 19.1 17.3 16.4 24.1 31.4 37.5 47.9
ROAA 7.6 8.3 7.6 7.1 10.3 14.5 19.8 27.8
ROCE 13.8 16.4 14.3 14.8 22.6 30.0 40.7 55.0
ROIC 14.6 17.0 15.7 17.5 27.8 33.8 40.4 53.9
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 20.0 19.7 20.1 21.3 22.7 22.5 22.0 21.5
Accounts receivable (days) 79.7 77.1 78.0 75.4 71.4 70.8 68.7 61.4
Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 56.1 53.3 78.2 50.0 51.6 50.1 52.5 48.9
Free cash flow yield 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.4 n.a. 1.2 3.6

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1971, Delta Electronics has been the global leader in switching power supply solutions since 2002 and DC brushless fans since 2006. Its business covers 3 key areas: power electronics (eg, power supplies, thermal management products and passive components), automation (eg, controllers, robot arms and building management systems), and infrastructure (eg, datacentre infrastructure, networking and EV charging).

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 1 Delta's board has 7 non-independent and 5 independent directors with a term of three years. The total number of directors and ratio of independent directors appear higher than most other listed companies. Besides, according to Delta's CSR report, enhancing the board's functions is one of the key goals for the company to achieve better corporate governance; also, the board members' diversity and professionalism will be taken into consideration to ensure a good board quality. Moreover, the company evaluates all the directors in the board using internal regulations and an external independent institution each year and at least once every three years, respectively. We believe Delta has implemented relatively more enhanced measure than most listed firms to improve its board quality.
G Capital management 2 During 2016-19, Delta's payout ratio was stable in the range of c.70%, but fell to 56% in 2020 and 53% in 2021. For 2020, it was mainly due to a sizeable non-cash re-valuation gain after the acquisition of Delta Thailand (DET), while the company maintained more cash on hand to deal with the uncertainties caused by COVID-19. However, the DPS growth from 2016 to 2021 was limited, as Delta struggled with business diversification into new end-markets (eg, smartphone, NEV). We believe that Delta's effort started to bear fruit in recent years after its NEV business has gradually picked up. Overall, we see a stable dividend policy from Delta and expect its DPS to continue to grow YoY in the future given that they declared a TWD11.6 DPS for 2025 which equals a 50% payout ratio.
Related party & transaction 1 Revenue from related parties stood at 12% of total 2025 revenue and purchases from related parties were at 11%. We see limited risk from related party transactions.
S Supplychain management 1 Delta focuses on: 1) localised management, 2) supplier certification and risk management, and 3) supplier sustainability engagement as key initiatives under the scope of supply chain management. In 2019, 144 new suppliers joined Delta's supply chain system. All of them passed environmental and social evaluations, signed the declaration of "non-use of conflict materials", and complied with Responsible Business Alliance's (BRA) Code of Conduct. Also, these vendors had to implement and abide by Delta's supply chain CSR policy and code of conduct. To lower ESG risks, Delta carries out RBA audits and monitors high-risk critical suppliers each year. The suppliers that fail these audits have to provide detailed improvement plans in response to identified issues. Besides, Delta has surveyed a total of 263 suppliers with potential risk and 63 suppliers with high risk of the total 1,331 suppliers, based on its CSR policy and code of conduct. If these suppliers are flagged as high-risk and no concrete improvements are made, Delta may consider terminating cooperation and transactions with them to improve the company's engagement on supplier sustainability. Overall, we think Delta has a solid plan to improve its supply chain management with specific KPIs, including: 1) achieving supplier improvement rate of 80% in 2025, 2) reducing GHG emissions rate of critical suppliers by 10% in 2025, and 3) improving water saving rate of critical suppliers by 12% in 2025.
S Datasecurity 2 Delta's Information Security team created Delta's Information Security Policy in November 2013 and started providing educational training to global employees in 2014. Delta gradually introduced the Information Security Management System (ISMS) in 2016 and obtained the ISO 27001 international certification in 2018. According to ISO27001, Delta has to conduct at least one internal audit on information security and appoint an independent institution to conduct audit externally. According to Delta, no major deficiencies have been found in recent years.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 30 Sep 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company